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Intermarketanalysis

Elliott Wave & Intermarket Analysis For NIKKEI And USDJPYHello traders! Today we will talk about stocks, specifically Nikkei and why USDJPY can see higher prices. Well, as you may already know, in EW theory after a three-wave corrective decline, the trend should remain to the upside. This is what we see in the stock market all the time. However, Nikkei got our attention, because we can see a nice five-wave rally after that three-wave a-b-c correction, which means that Nikkei remains in uptrend, but after another three-wave correction in the lower degree, where ideal support would be here around 21450 - 21250 levels, just keep in mind that bullish confirmed can be only if it manages to turn back above 21770 region! In the right picture you can see tight positive correlation between NIKKEI and USDJPY, which means that if NIKKEI points higher, then even USDJPY can see higher prices, so don't be surprised if USDJPY remains bullish towards 109 area or higher! So, seems like risk-on sentiment may continue and when we are in risk-on, we usually see bullish stocks, which are followed by recovery on XXX/JPY crosses. That being said, be aware of a bullish continuation on stocks, while XXX/JPY cross pairs may see a bigger recovery! Be humble, trade smart and wait for the right sentiment to enter the market! Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
CME:NKD1!Education
by ew-forecast
Sum up of Gold and Intermarket analysis of April-2019April 2019 is coming to an end so I want to sum up the current market situation so far. From the 4 assets classes chart below... Two asset classes are approaching resistance. The currency TVC:DXY has rally last week and now is approaching the resistance. Also, AMEX:SPY is almost at its all time high and long term resistance at around 3000 (also a psychological point). The opposite is seen in commodity and bonds TVC:TRJEFFCRB has broken through its long term resistance and now is on the way to test the broken trend line. We can see the same situation here for 10 year T-Note CBOE:TNX Now, let's look at S&P500 here. We are almost at the all time high which is also a long term resistance and 2.618 fib of 2009 decline. Are we going to rip right through the overhead supply? Or will the market reverse like when the exact same situation that happened in 2000 when we reach 2.618 fib of 1998 decline? Only time will tell. But by the behaviour of Bonds and Commodity that is evident on the chart, it looks like investors are concerned and starting to move into these assets. Since we see a break out in commodity, let's talk about Gold AMEX:GLD Relative performance of Gold vs Dollar It's very clear that we are on the trading range here and soon we will see a break out in some direction. Right now we are above 200 days MA. Relative performance of Gold and S&P500 Something is going on here! We can see that this is the first time since 2012 that we finally see the yellow metal outperform the S&P500. If the relative performance can stand above the broken resistance, and at the same time, when currency and S&P500 are approaching key resistance, we may see a significant move to the upside. Only time will tell and I think it will be soon. Let's go back to 2007. I can see the similarity here. In term of absolute performance of GOLD We have, again, broke down from support and a head and shoulder pattern at 1290 usd. In upcoming days we might see a rebound to test the neck line at 1290. It is a weird looking head and shoulder pattern, and when everyone thinks it is a crystal clear, textbook H&S (which appear to be so given the volume profile where people are waiting to sell at rebound to the neck line at 1290 and waiting to buy at 1230 which is a target of H&S), it could fail miserably. Clear pattern often fail! So be careful! But, what if it is not a head and shoulder like everybody think? Let's look at alternative scenario below. This is a scenario that could happen given the structure of the supposed falling wedge here, and also an elliot wave count. It is always good to have alternative plan in mind and be flexible in trading. I think FOMC meeting next month would give a clearer movement direction. So, let's see what will happen.
TVC:DXY
by UNRPP
EURJPY consolidated on support. Monthly overview, we are on the middle of the range here with support at 123.8-9. Price had bounced there twice last week and is now consolidated in vague descending triangle pattern with height of 1000 points. if it breaks 123.9 we would see price go down to 122.8-123.0, if it breaks up, expect selling pressure to continue at 125.4-5 Looking at XETR:DAX below, the uptrend line in 4hr timeframe has broken and price has been trying to get back above the trend line. Now wait for confirmation either OANDA:EURJPY break up or down, keep an eye on XETR:DAX
by UNRPP
SPX Pre FED Interest Rate Decision Analysis - 4 Hour ChartGood Evening Traders, I hope everybody is doing good. In this analysis, we will have a look at the SPX. We can see that the SPX is currently in a range of 2555.86 and 2684.14. However, I am expecting a break lower this week. I am expecting a hawkish FED on Wednesday in it' FOMC Statement which can be a catalyst for a move lower. With that said, I think a break of the rising trendline from 04-02-2018 to the downside will occur this week for a retest of the 2-year rising trendline. This range play can us take for at least a few days/weeks. Having a look at the second chart which is the volatility index (VIX). You can see that the instrument is trapped in a bullish triangle pattern. As long as it stays above 14.58 it should extend higher, which will put pressure on the SPX as they are negatively correlated to each other. I am expecting a retest of the 2593.82 trendline in the ideal case. This view will be invalid once SPX breaks 2684.14 resistance. I hope you enjoyed this view. Disclaimer: Trading is about going with the highest probability, nobody is 100% right and we need to protect ourself in case we are wrong. That is why we need to always use a stop-loss when trading. Trade with care. This my current view, and any view presented is not any trading recommendation, just personal view.
SP:SPXShort
by TradeFxTrends
EURUSD Getting Ready For A Bounce Higher!!Hello Traders, After the ECB interest rate decision and EURUSD falling more than 100 pips, I want to share with you my current 1/4 hour perspective. I have no doubts about it that the EURUSD is still bullish in the weekly chart and daily chart. Tomorrow I will publish a detailed analysis on the EURUSD in weekly timeframe explaining that. However, coming back to the short-term view. After breaking the resistance at 1.21475, the EURUSD accelerated the weakness today. But don’t get fooled. These moves are just another pullback to get into a possible bull market again. Why the EURUSD is bullish has a lot of implications in my view (fundamentals, Intermarket, Technical etc.). In fact a lot of Intermarket reasons. Anyway, in this analysis, I want to give you a small insight into the Intermarket analysis and why I think the EURUSD will probably turn higher soon, once it reaches the area of around 1.2021. Below the EURUSD chart, you can see the correlations coefficient indicator. Showing the correlation between the EURUSD and USDNOK. You may now think why the USDNOK. Well, there are a lot of reasons which I can’t explain here. But one reason is the correlation to each other. You can see that the indicator is indicating an overall negative correlation in time. Which basically means that when the EURUSD is rising for example in most cases the USDNOK should decline and vice versa. Obviously, we need to understand that they don’t move exactly the same but you can see for example the blue arrow in the EURUSD moving lower whereas at the same time USDNOK moved higher. Now, having a look at the USDNOK you can see that the market broke its falling trend line to the upside. However, USDNOK is currently trapped in a range between 8.05541-7.62619. The idea is that USDNOK is at the top of the range. My bias is that it will fail to break out higher and falls again and get be trapped in the mentioned range. So when I expect the USDNOK to trade lower like shown in the chart and taking into consideration that EURUSD has a negative correlation to USDNOK I need to say that the EURUSD will soon bounce higher when USDNOK goes for the pullback. And that is the view. I am expecting maybe next week the EURUSD to move higher once it reaches the 50% retracement at around 1.20217. Let’s see. Disclaimer: Trading is about going with the highest probability, nobody is 100% right and we need to protect ourself in case we are wrong. That is why we need to always use a stop-loss when trading. Trade with care. This my current view, and any view present is not a trading recommendation just personal view. Bitcoin 3.34% -
by TradeFxTrends
Junk Debt Again at Very Attractive Levels to ShortPerhaps this is another dead-cat bounce? These custom support resistance indicator lines show decent places to enter or exit. The Blue indicator line serves as a Bullish Trend setter. If your instrument closes above the Blue line, we think about going Long. If your instrument closes below the Red line, we think about Shorting. For Stocks, I prefer to use the Yellow line as my Bearish Trend setter (on Daily charts). Find out more. Send Private Mail (PM) to @MasterCharts
AMEX:JNKShort
by mastercharts
CHF returns to previous levels- long USDCHFUSDCHF usually fluctuates in relatively narrow range. We were down this range for a couple of weeks, but now it's time to go back. We have met the lower trend line and has successfully pushed off. I see a higher high&low completed now (you should never buy falling knifes, I always aware of them and construct my ideas to avoid this type of trading - follow me, and you'll never suffer from them too). There are 3 reason more: falling S&P, RSI broke 30 (very strong signal) and Commitment of Traders Report tells us about big players selling their francs. I prefer to be with them. I have open half of position and is going to double on blue line as shown. At the same level I'll lift my SL to breakeven. My TPs are on higher trend line, but I will perform trailing stop just in case too.
Long
by ArtKon
NZDUSD protected shortToday I can see a trading opportunity for NZDUSD. Previous week was quite difficult for US economy, and we saw economy drop (and some profitable trades, follow me for such ideas right on time). The last months US equity and currency are inversely correlated and DXY itself becomes stronger. So, fundamentals are ok. From the technical side we have closed below the trend line, which is quite strong signal to sell for me. That's why I am entering short, but protecting it with small SL. Doing so I get acceptable TP/SL ratio and insure myself from powerful bulls sentiments. If the position will progress and pair will close below weekly MA 200, I would open one more for more profit. If not, I would watch ahead for longs. This market is very intresting now, and I don't want to leave it out.
Short
by ArtKon
EURUSD More Upside In The Short-Term.So, the eurusd is making a higher high and higher low sequence in the short-term. Structure wise we expect the market to test the 1.1150 levels before the weekly downtrend could resume. If the market breaks below 1.07775 we wouldn’t be looking for more upside anymore. The reason for that are intermarket relations, structure and correlations reasons. We don’t want to go into details because we want to protect our client’s priority. Overall, we don’t like this pair either to buy or sell and as of for right now we will be on the side-lines. Never risk more than 0.5% per trade and never overleverage your account otherwise you will lose your account. Cheers Your Secrets2Trade Team
by secrets2trade
4
More Downside For TNXThe TNX is currently correcting the 93.43% up move in the mid of 2016. To make long story short, we want to buy tnx at around 1.99% IF it can manage to break the current low at around 2.17%. Consequently, with a break of the low of 2.17% and TNX reaching 1.99% we believe that the correction in the indices or not over yet. So in case of a leg lower in TNX we expect indices to follow the downside path of TNX. Why we expect this is because of intermarket analysis reasons. We cant go into detail because we want to protect our clients privilege. Hope that helps. Cheers, Your Secrets2Trade Team
TVC:TNXLong
by secrets2trade
Still More Downside For DXYHello Traders, We hope you have been a nice weekend. In this outlook, we will be going to have look at the DXY. (Dollar Index) As the DXY recently broke to new lows. It confirmed a lower low sequence. To make the long story short. The dollar index needs at least one last push to the downside at around 97.76. From there it could finally start its new daily up move. Dont get tricked by the recent up move. Eventually, the Dollar index should move lower. Consequently, the EURUSD should also move higher. Why we think the Dollar index will fall is intermarket and sequence reasons. This will be only available for our clients. Cheers Your secrets2trade Team
TVC:DXYShort
by secrets2trade
Possible Gold Long SetupHey guys, hope everybody is fine. First of all, we want to apologize for not being active for the last couple of weeks, as we are currently updating our website. But we will start from today updating all charts. :-) Okay, so let's start with a possible long trade in Gold. As you might know gold and silver are in an intact long trend and we are expecting gold to reach around 1300 in the midterm. As gold is currently correcting, we want to take the chance and buy gold at around 1247 with a stop loss below 1227 and a potential target of 1300. So let's see whether gold makes another push to the downside or not. Please read the article below on why we think all commodities and the currencies will gain in the near future. Hope that helps. Cheers
TVC:GOLDLong
by secrets2trade
NZDUSD Daily Long Hey guys, we gonna try buying NZDUSD for a long term trade to the upside. Entry will be at around 0.67565 and Stop below 0.62790. Out of our Intermarket research and analysis, we will be looking at higher commodity currencies across the board. So buying it as a daily trade would be a good idea! Why we think that NZDUSD will go higher is only avaible for our clients. Please keep in mind that this is our opinion. And opnions are different. Always use a stoploss while trading and never risk more than 0.5% from you account. Cheers
Long
by secrets2trade
AUDCAD further bearish sentiment?Hello Traders, today we would like to share with you the AUDCAD as it seems that it may push lower. As market hit for the third time our reaction point at 1.03, is bounced back and is making in lower timeframes a potential S-H-S formation. This may be first clues that a lower extend to the downside is possible. Looking at our intermarket indications, which always gives us a clue about potential market capital flows, it seems that further outflow may follow. The only indication which currently seems to recover a little is AUDCAD vs. Commodities ratio. Therefore market may oscillate a little further around trendline break before potentially falling further to the downside! We will wait today's close and see if potential trading opportunities occur. Let's see. We will keep you updated! Cheers, Secrets2Trade
Short
by secrets2trade
4