Inside quarter for SPY and many others Current environment seems hard to trade in. If you zoom out every now and then, you'll find a lot of Inside Quarterly candles, like $SPY.
Not saying market is expected to go up or down, but it's seeking for a (clear) direction.
Check your internals/sector ETFs, currently lots of inside's on the quarter:
DIA IWM OIH SLX SMH XBI XHB XLB XLC XLE XLF XLI XLP XLU XLV XLY XME XOP XRT
Internals
NASDAQ: Extreme market internal and sentiment degradation..I created this indicator to combine several market internal and sentiment indicators. The readings seen currently are below the March 2020 Covid sell-off readings and approaching what we saw in Dec 2019, which was a pretty bad month for that year as some of you might remember. This indicator can act as both a warning and as a 'get ready to buy' indicator. Generally, it will identify when internals are degrading--when readings become more extreme, the market usually sees violent moves. However shortly after that (about 3 days to a week), we usually see a strong, v-shape, counter move.
In short: We are at a ST/IT bottom or bottoming - if last week's violent down moves in the Nasdaq was not the bottom, the next day or two will likely see more violent downside moves to cause bull capitulation and a after that, a v-shape counter move.
Market Internals in troubleThe 2 most important internals we can measure are sentiment and breadth .
Sentiment is going higher, but breadth is starting to show cracks.
The are many breadth measures, including: McClellan Oscillator, advancers vs decliners, equal weights.
Both had been holding up very well; however, the breadth is starting to show downtrends, suggesting we are due for a correction.
I have been following a chart from an analyst at Schwab, which shows the correlation between 2009-2010 SPX chart VS the 2020-2021 SPX chart. And it has been following it CLOSELY. This chart also suggests we are due for a 8% correction (drawn in the chart).
Let me know if you want the article, it is free on the Insight Schwab website.
Always rely on your stop-exits. Volatility is growing higher.
EMA-cross trend analysisWhen the 20ema crosses below or above the 50ema, it has been an amazing signal in trend reversals.
Creating the strategy on your own is very easy to build and follow.
The inverse of the TLT is TBT; which could prove to be interesting if we continue to see interest rates tick higher.
Important to note, that the Bull-cross has been much more indicative than the Bear-cross in the past.
BANKNIFTY STRATEGY - Based on Market Internals/ Breadth ToolsHello Fellow Traders,
I have created a trading strategy on BankNifty based on Market Internals - Advance/Decline Volume and TICK
These Market Internals, also known as Breadth Tools helps in identifying the overall market sentiment.
Just doing some technical analysis on Price action doesn't provide good results.
Price action along with Volume gives a meaningful insight.
But simple VOLUME information is not sufficient to take a directional view on the markets. A segmentation of POSITIVE and NEGATIVE volume gives a clear picture of the symbol movement.
We can get the volume information FOR ANY STOCKS anywhere. But, VOLUME INFORMATION FOR AN INDEX ALONG WITH POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE VOLUMES are not available in normal trading platforms. We need to construct the VOLUME based on the underlying stocks(12 stocks for BankNifty). And this tool provides the exact feature.
In a nutshell,
1) THIS TOOL PROVIDES BUY/SELL INDICATIONS on the BANKNIFTY based on the underlying stocks' PRICE AND VOLUME
2) THE VOLUME INFORMATION IS BIFURCATED INTO POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE VOLUME, WHICH HELPS IN DECIDING THE MARKET DIRECTION.
Happy Trading!
PS: It's an Intraday tool. Indications for the last 10 trading sessions.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
Market Internals on 2 chart setupThis is the set up I use to monitor market internals. Top chart is TICKI- which is for the DJI. This can be swapped for the NYSE TICK if preferred. Next is UVOL-DVOL study, with the yellow line being the zero. Bottom screen ADD, again yellow is the zero.
If you've never used these before, try having them up for a few weeks and see how the market behaves when they are rising/falling or at extremes. Also watch the shadow trader youtube video about trading with market profile and internals.
Some statistics for ya' mindsBullish flag breaks on though the top and I drop some knowledge right here:
Between 24-Jan-2014 and 23-Jan-2019, there have been 7 independent observations where the Average 5-Day RSI for S&P 500 Stocks crossed below the level of 70.
After 5 days, the S&P 500 returned an average of 0.65% (SD 0.78%), with the return being positive in 86% of the observations.
SPX crossed this level on Tuesday. Therefore on next Tuesday we may be up in relation to this Tuesday.