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Intervention

USD/JPY stabilizes after massive slideThe Japanese yen has edged lower on Friday, after posting huge gains a day earlier. USD/JPY is trading at 159.16 in the European session, up 0.26% on the day at the time of writing. The US dollar was down against most of the major currencies on Thursday, after a softer--than-expected US CPI report raised expectations for a rate cut in September. The yen was the big winner on the day, surging as much as 2.7% and climbing to 157.41 against the dollar. The US dollar recovered some of these losses and USD/JPY closed at 158.76, down 1.8% on the day. US inflation fell to 3.0% y/y/ in June, its lowest level in a year. This was down from 3.3% in May and below the market estimate of 3.1%. The monthly reading was impressive at -0.1%, the first decline since May 2020. Core inflation also eased in June and market expectations for a September rate cut have jumped to 86%, compared to 69% a day just prior to the inflation report. The Federal Reserve has gone to great lengths to dampen rate cut expectations but may send a more dovish signal to the markets following the very soft inflation data. The US dollar had a bad day at the office on Thursday but the extent of the slide against the yen raised suspicions that Tokyo had intervened in the currency markets. A report on Japanese TV said that the government and the Bank of Japan had intervened after the US dollar posted losses following the US inflation report. Japan’s chief currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, didn’t surprise anyone by saying “no comment” as to whether there was an intervention on Thursday. Japan is embroiled in a constant cat-and-mouse game with yen speculators and its policy is to keep market participants in the dark about currency interventions. With the Bank of Japan signaling that it plans to tighten policy, we can expect additional volatility from the Japanese currency. USD/JPY tested resistance at 159.37. Above, there is resistance at 161.30 There is support at 156.97
by OANDA
Market tests BoJ with yen at 1986 low The Japanese yen tumbled beyond 160 per USD, marking its weakest level since 1986. This is a critical threshold that previously prompted intervention by Japanese authorities. In May, Japan depleted a record ¥9.8 trillion to bolster the yen. Masato Kanda, Tokyo's top currency diplomat, attempted to mitigate the surge above 160.00 with strong verbal interventions, yet he mentioned no specific target level. This ambiguity was perceived by some market participants as a green light to drive the pair to 160.82. The lack of immediate intervention from the Bank of Japan post-160 breakout raises questions: Does this signal an open path to the next psychological levels? In June alone, the yen has slipped roughly 1.5% against the dollar, extending its year-to-date decline to about 13%. Should there be a retracement from the previous 160 intervention level, buying interest is expected to resurface around the 158.00 support, aligning with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Fundamentally, traders are eyeing tomorrow's US Jobless Claims data, followed by Tokyo CPI and US PCE releases on Friday, which could be critical in shaping the next moves in the yen.
by BlackBull_Markets
BOJ Intervention Again⁉️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders, EUJPY is currently approaching a massive supply zone marked in red. For the bears to take over again and start the next bearish impulse movement, a break below the last major low in gray is needed. Meanwhile, EURJPY would be bullish short-term and can still trade higher. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
by TheSignalyst
1
USDJPY | MT Short H4 | Riding on BOJ InterventionPair: FX:USDJPY Timeframe: H4 - Medium Term (MT) Direction: Short Technical Confluences for Trade: - Stochastics are in Overbought Conditions on D1, H4 and H1 time-frames - Price action may face some resistance from a previous support line - Price is close to 61.8% Fib Extension Level - Aiming for the 32.8% Fibo Retracement with 23.6% as the TP 1 level Fundamental Confluences for Trade: - Dividend repatriation season for Japan where MNCs bring back USD dividends and converts them to JPY - These levels may see BOJ intervening to stop the Yen weakness - Yield differential between USA and Japan cannot be denied and dovish BOJ doesn't help much; hence the weak JPY unless we see a firmer BOJ - Further war escalation from the Israel-Iran tension may bring on risk-off moves and see the JPY strengthen Suggested Trade: Entry @ Area of Interest 154.00 - 155.15 SL @ 156.56 TP 1 @ 151.30 (Close Half-Position & move SL to Entry level once TP1 is achieved) TP 2 @ 149.27 Risk-to-Reward @ Approx. 3.03 (Depending on Entry Level) May the pips move in our favor! Good luck! :D *This trade suggestion is provided on an advisory basis. Any trade decisions made based on this suggestion is a personal decision and am not responsible for any losses derived from it.
Short
by weekendanalyst
2
CHFJPY | MT Short H4 | The Battle of 2 Safe HavensPair: FX:CHFJPY Timeframe: H4 - Medium Term (MT) Direction: Short Technical Confluences for Trade: - Stochastics are in Overbought Conditions on D1, H4 and H1 time-frames - Price action may face some resistance from a previous support line - Price has retraced to 61.8% Fib Retracement Level - Aiming for the lower Support trendline from the mid of 2023 Fundamental Confluences for Trade: - SNB has been repeatedly concerned about a strong CHF while BOJ is concerned about a weak JPY - These levels may see BOJ intervening to stop the Yen weakness and vice versa for SNB - SNB is the first developed nation to start their cutting rate cycles and BOJ has just started hiking Suggested Trade: Entry @ Area of Interest 169.50 - 170.20 SL @ 170.84 TP 1 @ 168.68 (Close Half-Position & move SL to Entry level once TP1 is achieved) TP 2 @ 167.18 Risk-to-Reward @ Approx. 2.31 (Depending on Entry Level) May the pips move in our favor! Good luck! :D *This trade suggestion is provided on an advisory basis. Any trade decisions made based on this suggestion is a personal decision and am not responsible for any losses derived from it.
Short
by weekendanalyst
Update from the BoJ decision todaySince January 2023, the USDJPY has been on an astronomic rise, driven by the significant divergence between FOMC and BoJ monetary policies. The initial market expectation was for the BoJ to intervene when the USDJPY approaches the 155 price level. Today the Yen has come under fresh selling pressure, as the BoJ kept rates on hold, taking the USDJPY above 156. Could 158 at the top of the channel be the next target intervention level? From the BoJ today Kept rates on Hold No comments about an intervention Yen continues to weaken with USDJPY climbing above 156
by JinDao_Tai
USD/JPY jumpy as Japan’s core CPI easesThe Japanese yen showed some promise earlier, gaining as much as 0.48% against the US dollar as it rose to 153.59. However, it has pared those gains and is trading in Europe at 154.58, down 0.04%. Japan’s nationwide CPI, which excludes fresh food, rose 2.6% y/y in March, down from 2.8% in February but higher than the market estimate of 2.7%. Core CPI has now exceeded the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for 24 consecutive months. The deceleration was driven by a decrease in food inflation but the yen’s weakness prevented a sharper drop in inflation. The “core-core” CPI reading, which excludes fresh food and energy, dropped from 3.2% to 2.9% in March, below the forecast of 3%. This marked the first time that the index has fallen below 3% since November 2022. While consumer inflation continues to slow, the Bank of Japan is more focused on services inflation, as it believes that services inflation together with higher wage growth are the recipe to ensuring that inflation remains sustainable at the 2% target. The yen is down almost 10% since the start of the year and the sharp depreciation in such a short period has Tokyo concerned. The Ministry of Finance last intervened in the currency markets in late 2022 when the yen traded around 152. With the yen falling this week to 154.78, a 34-year old low, the markets are on alert for the possibility of another intervention. The weak yen could also have a significant impact on rate policy. On Thursday, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said that the Bank might raise interest rates again if the yen’s decline led to a significant rise in inflation. The BoJ lifted rates out of negative policy in March but the yen has weakened since then. USD/JPY tested resistance at 154.43 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 154.71 There is support at 154.11 and 153.83
by OANDA
Tokyo Inflation to trigger yen Intervention? But at what price?Recent remarks made by Masato Kanda, Japan's vice-finance minister for international affairs, have led to heightened cautiousness regarding potential actions by authorities to support the yen through intervention. The USD/JPY has comfortably surpassed the 150.000 threshold, which historically has prompting interventions by the Bank of Japan to limit the weakness in the yen. This precedent was observed in 2022 when the currency reached 151.950 against the US dollar. But have the intervention goal posts moved? Maybe only slightly. Credit Agricole’s FAST FX model suggests a selling strategy for USD/JPY if it crosses 152.20. Anticipated inflation data for Tokyo, scheduled for release later this week, could serve as a potential trigger for intervention. A higher-than-expected reading may positively impact the JPY, indicating bullish sentiment and potentially help the BoJ avoid the need to intervene. Conversely, a lower-than-anticipated figure could exert a bearish influence on the JPY.
by BlackBull_Markets
Will Yen Tank to New Lows?The Japanese Yen is one of the worst performing currencies in 2024. It has weakened 5.4% against the USD. Forces have been stacked against Yen ever since the US Federal Reserve started raising interest rates at a record pace. In sharp contrast, ultra loose monetary stance from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) resulted in wide policy rate differential of 5% between short-term interest rates in both countries, which has contributed to Yen weakness. The Yen made a recovery in December driven by a dovish Fed and hopes of BoJ exiting its ultra-loose policy in 2024. Yen rose to levels unseen since June 2023. However, thus far in 2024, the Yen has weakened as recent developments have cemented the need to maintain current loose monetary policy in Japan. An Earthquake that struck Japan at the start of the year caused infrastructure damage. Stimulus will be required to fix that. Inflation in Japan is retreating to BoJ’s target range rapidly. Consequently, the central bank may see no rush to start hiking rates given uncertain recovery in economic growth. This paper describes various forces at play and establishes a hypothetical trade setup using CME Japanese Yen futures to harness gains from weakening Yen. BOJ’s MONETARY POLICY MAY STAY LOOSER FOR LONGER 1. Aid for Earthquake Relief: On January 2nd, a severe earthquake hit near Japan's Ishikawa prefecture , causing widespread destruction, damaging over 4,000 homes. The area continues to experience aftershocks, adding to the damage. Moody’s RMS predicts insured losses from the earthquake could be between USD 3 billion and USD 6 billion. In response, Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kushida plans to double earthquake relief funds to USD 7 billion in the next fiscal year to aid recovery efforts. Given the economic fallout, the BoJ is likely to maintain its lenient monetary policy in the near future. 2. Cooling CPI: Japan’s most recent CPI figures showed inflation cooling to 2.6% in December from 2.8% in November. That is the lowest reading since July 2022. Core CPI, which excludes fresh food, a measure referenced by the BoJ, fell to 2.3% from 2.5%. Inflation excluding fresh food and energy was 3.7% YoY, which was also lower compared to November’s 3.8%. The core CPI reading is just a hair above BoJ’s target range of 2%. Inflation was driven lower by decline (11.6% YoY) in energy costs. The large drop was due to base effects of high energy prices last year. Services inflation remained unchanged at 2.3% fuelled by higher wages. That is positive news for the BoJ which aims to establish sustainable domestic-demand & wage-growth driven inflation. With wage hikes from the Shunto negotiation in March-April still undecided, the BoJ is unlikely to pre-empt the exit from loose policy. Therefore, the next two policy meetings are unlikely to lead to a policy shift. BoJ Policy Meeting calendar ( BoJ ) FED POLICY MAY NEED TO REMAIN TIGHTER FOR LONGER Meanwhile, concerns are plenty in the US too. Inflation rebounded in December. Core inflation remains strong. Robust retail sales suggest consumers are resilient and still spending. Jobs data from December was healthy. Recent jobless claims points to further strength in the labour market. Put together, the Fed will not rush to cut rates as markets expect. This is exemplified by diverging market and Fed expectations for rate path. According to CME FedWatch tool (as of 22/Jan), markets are expecting 5 rate cuts in 2024 while Federal Reserve's dot plot suggested only 3 rate cuts would take place. Both factors, from Japan and the US together, suggest fundamental Yen weakness and these conditions are expected to persist for longer. YEN INTERVENTION WARNING Despite the fundamental weakness, there are risks from betting against further Yen weakening. As the currency weakened rapidly past 148/USD, the Japanese Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, stated that the government is closely watching developments in the currency markets. He stressed the importance of stability and that market movements should reflect economic fundamentals. Likelihood of intervention remains high and its impact on the Yen has been discussed previously . MARKET METRICS Options market activity points to a contrasting trend. Recent open interest change in CME Group Japanese Yen options have been tilted towards higher calls signalling hopes of Yen strengthening. Overall positioning points to a similar contrary trend. CME Group Japanese Yen options OI change between 11/Jan and 19/Jan ( QuikStrike ) Despite the recent rally, implied volatility has not spiked significantly. They remain well below the highs seen in mid-December around BoJ’s policy meeting. Moreover, options skew remains elevated from its lows observed in late-October when the sentiment around Yen was heavily bearish. CME Japanese Yen options CVOL index and options skew ( CVOL ) HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP The BoJ is unlikely to exit its loose policy stance any time soon against the backdrop of rapidly slowing inflation and uncertain economic outlook. In the US, a rebound in inflation might delay Fed’s rate cut decision. Collectively, this points to fundamental Yen weakness. To limit downside exposure in case of intervention by Japanese officials in currency markets, a tight stop can limit losses. The below hypothetical trade setup suggests a short position in CME Group Japanese Yen futures expiring in March (6JH2024) that provides a 1.55x reward to risk ratio. CME Group Japanese Yen futures have maintenance margin of USD 2,600 and provide exposure to 12,500,000 Yen. • Entry: 0.0068115 • Target: 0.0066000 • Stop Loss: 0.0069500 • Profit at Target: USD 2,643 (68115 – 66000 = 2115 pips x 1.25) • Loss at Stop: USD 1,731 (69500 – 68115 pips = 1385 pips x 1.25) • Reward-to-Risk: 1.55x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME:6J1!Short
by mintdotfinance
What Next For The Yen?In Karate, offense is the best form of defence. The BoJ knows it. Japan faces a raft of economic headwinds which shows up in Yen’s performance. The BoJ intervened strongly last year to support the currency when it skirted around current levels. Yen is hovering at those levels again. BoJ is anticipated to act. Such interventions typically mark the bottom. This paper explores recent economic data to analyse the potential for monetary policy changes by BOJ. JAPANESE MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS HAMPER YEN FROM STRENGTHENING Starting September, the Yen has trended lower relative to the USD among currency majors. The Yen has weakened the most. As described previously , BoJ’s aims to kickstart the economy onto a high growth trajectory to exit decades of painful deflation. Recent macroeconomic data indicates weakness. This reaffirms the need for continued loose monetary policy. However, a frail Yen poses a different type of challenge for the BoJ with higher import costs for fresh food and fuel. This leaves the BoJ in a predicament between loose monetary policy and intervention to support the Yen. What does recent inflation, GDP, and wage data point to? Inflation Inflation declined M-o-M in September. CPI cooled to 2.8% falling below 3% for the first time in a year. Importantly, Japan’s producer prices are now below 2% in a sign that inflation might have peaked. Consumer prices will fail to prevail above 4% for long with input prices moderating. The BoJ expects inflation to persist until March next year at current levels and to cool towards target rates in the following 12 months. GDP Growth The Japanese economy shrank 2.1% YoY in Q3. This is far below expectations of 0.6% decline and a sharp slowdown from +4.5% growth in Q2. Slow economic growth makes economic stimulus essential to sustain it. Wages Nominal wage growth continues to decline. Real wages are even more concerning. Wages have declined for the last 18 months when adjusted for inflation. Next Shunto negotiations are set to complete by mid-Jan 2024 with outcome remaining uncertain. The BoJ highlighted that wage uncertainties and price-setting behaviour pose upside risk to prices. Meanwhile, high inflation will keep impacting real wages, affecting people's ability to spend. THE BANK OF JAPAN IS STUCK BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE At the October monetary policy meeting, the BoJ announced changes to the bond yield cap. The Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy and range were kept unchanged. However, a small modification was made to change the 1% JGB yield cap from a rigid one to a loose reference. These changes hint at BoJ setting itself up for the eventual roll-back of the YCC policy altogether. Next BoJ policy meeting is set for December 19th. The BoJ will likely maintain stimulus and hold rates low amid feeble consumer & business spending. The policy change will be through YCC dismantling, impacting the JGB market. It will require careful planning and deft timing. Meanwhile, the BoJ may intervene to stem continued Yen weakness. The officials have expressed this sentiment over the last two weeks via warnings for participants shorting the Yen over the past two weeks. Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) intervened three times last year, injecting USD 68 billion to support the Yen when it was trading near 150/USD. These interventions, unannounced, led to sharp and unexpected currency moves. Unlike previous exchange rate-based interventions, the BoJ’s current predicament revolves around volatility and public perception. Reuters reports that if Japan aims to prevent yen appreciation, the MoF will issue short-term bills to raise Yen, which is then sold in the market to weaken the currency. Alternatively, to curb Yen depreciation, authorities will tap into Japan's FX reserves, exchanging dollars for the Yen. In recent weeks, Japanese authorities have issued warnings and expressed readiness to intervene as the Yen continues to weaken, despite a moderating USD. Masato Kanda, Japan's top currency official, emphasized the urgency of their judgments and the potential for intervention, resonating with rhetorics used a year ago. MIXED SIGNALS FROM CURRENCY DERIVATIVES MARKETS Although asset managers are not positioned as net short as they were in late-September, they increased their net short positioning (weakening Yen) last Tuesday. Similarly, leveraged funds also increased net short positioning sharply last week. Options markets contrarily signal strength in the Yen. P/C ratio for CME Japanese Yen Options (JPU) is 0.42 implying two puts for every five calls. JPUs are quoted with the Yen as the base currency so call options express a view of the Yen strengthening. Moreover, bullish bets have increased heavily over the past week. Specifically, nearest monthly and weekly contracts (JPZ3 and WJ4X3) show Yen strengthening in the near term. Bullish bets in December options outnumber bearish bets by three times. Although put open interest (OI) is concentrated near current levels with the highest OI at 0.0066 (151 in USD/JPY), call OI is more spread across with a large OI at strike of 0.0069 (145 in USD/JPY) which has ballooned over the last week. This signals that options market expects Yen strengthening by next month. Finally, implied volatility on JPU is near its lowest level since March 2022. Source: CME CVOL Options skew on JPU is close to one, indicating that premiums on calls and puts are equally priced. Convexity remains elevated signalling investor interest in OTM options suggesting likelihood of sharp moves ahead. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Given 12-month low implied volatility, a position in JPU can yield cost-effective protection against sharp Yen moves. Alternatively, with the anticipated stability in Japanese interest rates, a short futures position in CME Japanese Yen futures, as previously discussed in a paper , is a viable approach to capitalizing on Yen's expected weakening. We can tap into JPU to safeguard this position against unforeseen risks of yen strengthening from BoJ intervention. Furthermore, CME offers weekly options for Japanese Yen futures, expiring from Monday through Friday of the week. This enables investors to attain short-term exposure on a more focused scale, accompanied by lower premiums compared to monthly options. A long call option position in JPUZ3 (expiring on December 8) would benefit from a BoJ intervention. The trade setup consists of an entry at a strike of 0.0068 (JPY 147.0588) in JPUZ3 call options. These options are at a delta of 25 and expire in 30 days providing a good trade-off between low premium and adequate exposure to the underlying. As of settlement on November 17th, premium for these options stood at USD 245 at an implied volatility of 8.26%. Source: CME Options Calculator The position breaks even at 0.00682 (JPY 146.6275) and turns profitable when (a) underlying futures price increases above strike price, and/or (b) implied volatility increases. Source: CME QuikStrike MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME:6J1!Long
by mintdotfinance
YEN WATCH! 🧐Summary The Yen continues to weaken. The USDJPY is now at a 25-year high. The Details The Bank of Japan (BOJ) intervention could happen any week, meaning some big moves on JPY pairs. I am expecting at least a 500 pip bearish move on USDJPY 💥 If there is no intervention, USDJPY may reach as high as 155-160 before the BOJ changes interest rates to strengthen the Yen. The JPY is weak across the board, especially against the FOREXCOM:CNHJPY PEPPERSTONE:CHFJPY and PEPPERSTONE:SGDJPY Things to Consider Don't over-leverage JPY long positions due to your FOMO Think longer-term. The intervention move could provide only temporary strength for the Yen. The BOJ may need to hike rates before the Yen forms its lows. An interest rate hike may not happen until Q1/Q2 2024.
Short
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
Heavy Dollar news day tomorrowWhat an insane session for USDJPY! We know the ExMo is low due to the compression we've seen, but even compared to more normalised figure, what we've seen today has broken all expectations. There are two questions going forward. The most immediate is the Dollar news we have scheduled for Nov 1st. Those being ADP at 12:15pm London (due to daylight savings) followed by the Fed rate decision at 6pm. The second is whether or not the BoJ have any other tools to alleviate the Yen weakness other than simply intervening like we've seen before. Let's tackle the new first. I wouldn't expect ADP to cause much of a stir given the Fed decision always overshadows anything else, and if the Fed holds at 5.50%, then I wouldn't expect anything other than a small bump. Given the move we've seen today I think some form of relax to happen, possibly with a slight downward trajectory for profit taking....possibly we just slide a little lower into the end of the week? As for the BoJ, I'm nervous above 150. I'll take it a day at a time above here and be mindful of any macro factors that change the longer term outlook for either the Dollar or Yen. But it seems like the only mechanism Japan has to stop the devaluation is to inject a whole bunch of money into buying the Yen. Be careful out there and I'll see you tomorrow.
by RuckSack
2
USDJPY: Thoughts and Analysis Today's focus: USDJPY Pattern – Ascending Triangle Break (BoJ Intervention?) Support – 149.28 - 148.43 Resistance – 149.90 - 150.16 Hi, and thanks for checking out today's update. Today, we are looking at the USDJPY on the daily chart. Speculation continues as to whether we will see intervention from the BoJ as the USDJPY continues to trade above 150. Currently, the breakout of an ascending triangle pattern yesterday continues to confirm today as buyers continue the run above 149.90 resistance and 150. Pricewise, things look firm on the buyer side, but will we see any surprises today with BoJ intervention? Last time price was above 150, we saw a 1.75% decline. Could another round be on the cards if prices contnue to push higher? Good trading.
by Eightcap
USDJPY nearing 150 again! Overview USDJPY is nearing the 150 handle again. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) may intervene, creating lucrative JPY buying opportunities. The Details The Yen is weakening. The JPY Currency Index ( TVC:JXY ) has the Yen at all-time lows. The last time the Yen was this weak was in September and October 2022; the BOJ intervened in the FX markets to strengthen the Yen—sharp moves of 500 pips formed in hours! USDJPY is back at the 2022 intervention levels. On the 3rd of October 2023, it is suspected that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) intervened to strengthen the Yen, which formed the 'BOOM' move identified on my chart. The intervention caused a bearish move of 300 pips. In the coming days, USDJPY may reach the 150 handle again. The BOJ has two options: Further Intervention - The BOJ may continue with FX intervention. This could bring a bullish shock to the Yen, especially USDJPY, like in October 2022. Expect a move of 400 to 600 pips to the downside on USDJPY. Maybe more. Maybe less. This could be followed by further JPY buying. Interest rates - The BOJ may move away from negative interest rates. A rate change is BIG news for the Yen. Possibly, the Nikkei also. This is significant because monetary policy shifts from negative to zero or even negative to positive rates. This change could end the JPY selling and mark highs on the USDJPY chart. Either option, the JPY weakness, especially short-term, is ending. Things to consider: Beware of slippage. The initial move will likely be quick and sharp, causing significant slippage on JPY orders. If you catch the wrong side of the move, you could blow your trading account if you are over-leveraged and over-exposed. The swap rate on holding the Yen is terrible, especially USDJPY. So, USDJPY Put Options or trading the JPY currency index may be better than spot FX. Excessive and volatile moves against the Yen could be the catalyst that brings intervention rather than USDJPY reaching critical levels. USDJPY may reach the 155 handle before the BOJ take action. My area of focus is 150 to 155.
Short
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
7
So this happened on the USDJPY overnightThe USDJPY crept over the 150 price level before crashing down almost 300 pips to retest the 22nd September swing low and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at the 147.40 price level. Eventually, the price settled along the 149 price level and back within the bullish channel. The 150 price level is significant as it was likely the BoJ's price level for an intervention. This move could be viewed as the first stealth intervention as the Ministry of Finance did not confirm the intervention. Is this going to be a repeat of the series of BoJ interventions we saw in October 2022?
Long
by JinDao_Tai
1
GBPJPY Bears in Sight as Japan Mulls Currency Intervention Bearish GBPJPY as Japan's key economic ministers warn of currency intervention Japan's key economic ministers have warned of currency market intervention, keeping investors wary of a further sell-off in the yen and weighing on the GBPJPY exchange rate. The yen has weakened sharply against the dollar in recent months, hitting its weakest level in nearly a year on Monday. This has been driven by a number of factors, including the Bank of Japan's commitment to ultra-low interest rates, while the US Federal Reserve has been raising rates aggressively. The recent warning from Japanese ministers has raised the prospect of further intervention to weaken the yen. This would be bad news for the GBPJPY exchange rate, as it would make Japanese exports more competitive and make British imports more expensive. As of October 10, 2023, GBPJPY is trading at 182. If Japanese authorities do intervene to weaken the yen, this could push GBPJPY down towards 175 or even lower. Traders should be cautious of long positions in GBPJPY in the near term, as the risk of intervention is high.
Short
by masterclass618
The Yen Bull-Bomb is Ticking!JPY continues to be sold. USDJPY is nearing the previous intervention area of 148-151. The BOJ needs to do something. They are starting to feel the squeeze. Today, the bomb started to tick. The BOJ has suggested they will do all possible to strengthen the Yen. They have two significant weapons: intervention and interest rates. Intervention - This will bring an initial bullish shock to JPY pairs, like in October 2022. This could see a 400-600 pip move on USDJPY. Followed by a short-term retrace move. In November 2022, this retrace move was 2000 pips. Interest rates - A rate change is BIG news for the Yen. Possibly, the Nikkei also. This is significant because monetary policy shifts from negative to zero or positive rates. This change could end the JPY selling. A change in monetary policy may be enough to reverse the Yen. Intervention may not be needed. The JPY could weaken further before the BOJ steps in. Price may even reach highs of 152+, but the bomb is now ticking. The ball has started to roll. Today marks the beginning of the end. Prepare for some manic JPY buying. I traded the last BOJ intervention. My timing was off twice (I was too early), but I caught the intervention move third time lucky. It resulted in my most profitable FX option trade to date. DO look to trade this. BEWARE of the downside risk on ***JPY pairs. EXPECT slippage if you are short the Yen when and if intervention kicks in.
Short
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
Unraveling Dollar Yen's Trading MazeHey there, traders! 🌟 Let's delve into the tricky landscape of dollar yen – a setup that demands our attention. The overarching trend suggests a bullish journey, but buckle up, because there are twists ahead. 📈 News flashes about the potential Bank of Japan (BOJ) intervention and the recent wastewater stir have stirred the pot. 🌊⚖️ For the conservative trader, a week of observation might be prudent. But for those risk-savvy, why not seize the day? When big news lurks, colossal movement follows, and with the right risk management, why not chase those opportunities? 💼💰 Gazing at the weekly chart, we spot a retest at the previous high – a pivotal zone for the week. The tantalizing prospect of a break and close above this high tantalizes for a continued rally. But guess what? Immediate resistance lurks nearby. 🛑📊 In the grand scheme, to sustain a bullish trajectory, the magic number is 152.02 on the weekly chart. 🚀 Shifting to daily charts, the high gets retested with a sly RSI divergence – a whisper of counter trend play, perhaps? Now, for the four-hour setup, a familiar pattern – retest, RSI divergence – all hinting at an intriguing possibility. And guess what? The one-hour chart mirrors this with its own RSI divergence dance. 🎭📉 For the curious minds eager to learn trading nuances. Now, let's revisit our trusty weekly chart and unfurl our analysis on Dollar Yen. A bearish bat pattern beckons a shorting venture at 149.40. Daily chart enthusiasts, the confirmation for crab pattern enthusiasts swings by at 150.45. Are you eyeing a buy? Retest the immediate support at 144.65 for a potential entrance. Zooming into the four-hour chart, ABCD pattern aficionados can keep an eye on 147.79 for counter trading maneuvers. Buying prospects? 144.62 or 144.02 could be your calling. Remember, when the market respects these levels and avoids sinking further, it signals the support's sturdy stance. 🏗️ And oh, the sweet RSI divergence on the one-hour chart – a touch of icing on our trading cake. Once 146.55 gets a respectful tap, I'll be diving into an aggressive counter trade. 🚀
Short
by RaynLim
6
Will the BoJ intervene...The USDJPY trades with choppy price action between the 145 and 146 price range. With increasing comments about the weakness of the Yen and the possible invention from the BoJ, the longer the USDJPY stays at this price level, the higher chance we are likely to see an intervention. However, we cannot rule out a continuation of the upside, especially if the DXY recovers in strength. I would avoid further trades to the upside, and wait for possible counter trend reversal. But speculative counter-trends setups have a higher likelihood of failing (the trend is your friend)
Short
by JinDao_Tai
2
Will the BoJ continue to Diverge?YES! The BoJ is expected to release its monetary policy report today, and all signs point to the BoJ maintaining its current stance. Keeping with the negative rates of -0.1%. The BoJ is the last major central bank yet to jump onto the interest rate hike path, diverging from the rest of the world. Releasing an unchanged monetary policy report at the last BoJ meeting in September saw the USDJPY fluctuate by almost 190 pips at the 144.50 price level before climbing higher by 135 pips to reach 145.90. If we see a similar price action this time around, the USDJPY could fluctuate significantly along the 146.50 price level before climbing higher beyond 147 to test as high as the 148.50 (50% Fibonacci retracement level). However, the threat of further intervention from the BoJ still looms. As the USDJPY climbs higher, look for possible action from the BoJ, to take the USDJPY back toward the 145 price level, and beyond that, the 140.70 key support level. The safest sell-stop order would be below 145, SL: 50pips TP: 350pips (Risk to Reward of 1:6.9). A slightly more adventurous sell-limit order would be below 147 SL: 40pips TP: 170 pips (Risk to Reward of 1:4)
Short
by JinDao_Tai
Did you hear what happened to the YEN?On Friday 21st October, the USDJPY had been climbing steadily, almost reaching the round number of 152.00. Then it reversed and spiked lower, from 151.50 reaching a low of 146.20. This move was very similar to what happened on the 22nd of September, when the USDJPY climbed above 145 and almost reached 146 before crashing down to 140.35. However, when the USDJPY came down in September, the BOJ did say that they had taken action to intervene and even announced that they had spent 2.84 trillion yen to prop up the yen. This time, in October, authorities from the Ministry of Finance have remained silent on whether they made any further attempts to support the currency including on Friday With the BOJ policy decision on Friday (the intervention on 22 September was after the release of the BOJ policy decision). Look for further downside on the USDJPY, especially if the price breaks below the 147 support level, with 145 as the next key support level. *Remember to check out my previous analysis on the Yen and the BOJ Intervention
Short
by JinDao_Tai
CADJPYHello traders, As it comes to CADJPY, I see that after the positive CAD news on Friday, this pair has been sold hard. I see a break of Trend line and support zone and I can see a Friday closure at retest price action. Perhaps the pair might go up for a bit, but this will indicate nice short opportunities to the previous support zones. Note: The Bank of Japan perfoms an intervention to mitigate the YEN's depreciation. So, Yen may buy from now on invalidating last year's falling performance. Good luck!
Short
by The_Forex_Path