Ethereum Retail Investor Count Surges by 3.3 MillionEthereum Retail Investor Count Surges by 3.3 Million: The Road to an Altcoin Bull Run?
Analyzing Changes in Ethereum's Retail Investor Count
Over the past 60 days, we’ve observed a notable increase in the number of Ethereum retail investors. While the percentage increase may seem modest at 2.77%, this translates to approximately 3.3 million new retail addresses. With this rise over the past two months, the total number of retail investor addresses has reached 125.18 million.
Could Retail Investors Be the Catalyst for a Bull Market?
To answer this briefly: Yes.
In a bull run, new investors entering the market are expected to drive a significant increase in demand. When supply is limited or relatively scarce, as with Ethereum, this demand surge is anticipated to lead to a substantial price increase. Given that Ethereum is often seen as the “father of altcoins,” this trend holds even greater importance.
Why Is This So Significant?
The Key to an Altcoin Rally: Ethereum
Recently, Ethereum's price performance has lagged behind Bitcoin. In the last six months, for example, Bitcoin has gained 33%, while Ethereum's return has only been 10%. This discrepancy has left many altcoin investors disappointed. However, with Bitcoin dominance receding, we’re seeing Ethereum come back into the spotlight. Over the past week, while Bitcoin has risen around 19%, Ether has gained over 29%.
Following Ethereum's rally, the entire altcoin market is experiencing a period of relief and upward movement. This is why Ethereum's price trends and volatility are crucial for a potential altcoin bull run. Monitoring on-chain data here can provide critical insights.
How Can We Track This Data?
Conclusion
Through the IntoTheBlock & TradingView collaboration, you can track Ethereum's retail investor count under the "ETH_RETAIL" metric.
Observing whether there’s a corresponding increase in retail interest following the recent price surge can offer insight into the rally’s sustainability. If there’s no notable rise in the retail investor count, expecting a strong, lasting bull run might be overly optimistic. Thus, on-chain data sometimes serves as a leading indicator, and at other times, it confirms trends.
Thank you for reading.
Intotheblock
Bitcoin MVRV AnalysisHello friends,
Thanks to the collaboration between TradingView and IntoTheBlock, you can access this data for free on TradingView with the code "BTC_MVRV."
Today, we will dive deep into MVRV, the primary data I use for trend tracking in Bitcoin.
What is MVRV?
MVRV is calculated by comparing two main metrics: market value and realized value.
Market value is determined by multiplying the current market price of a cryptocurrency by its circulating supply. On the other hand, realized value considers the total value of all coins based on their last transaction prices.
The Market Value to Realized Value Ratio (MVRV) allows us to understand the profitability of Bitcoin investors and cyclically track trends.
Bull vs. Bear
If the Bitcoin MVRV ratio is above 1, it indicates that investors are in profit, while if it is below 1 investors are at a loss.
Generally, investors pay attention to the following two levels when examining MVRV. If the MVRV is below 1 the Bitcoin price is cold as the polar north, and if the MVRV is at or above 3.7, the Bitcoin price is hot as Sahara desert.
However, to add a different perspective and to detail trend tracking, I included the 52-week simple moving average. As you can see on the chart, it has become much easier to follow bear and bull trends. We can say that if the MVRV score is above the 52-week average, the bulls are strong; if it is below, the bears are strong.
Conclusion
Currently, the MVRV is at 2.03 points, while its 52-week average is at 1.88 points.
This situation shows us that we are still in a bull trend. As a bonus, when we examine the MVRV historically, we can observe that 2.00 points is an important level. We have witnessed that the momentum in bull trends increases if the MVRV can stay above 2.00 points.
Let's see what we will witness in the current bull trend.
Thank you for reading.
AVAX MVRV Detailed Analysis AVAX 1W MVRV and Price Analysis
Hi folks,
Let's take a look at some on-chain data.
What is MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value)?
MVRV is an on-chain indicator used to analyze the valuation of cryptocurrencies. It is a simple but powerful tool that shows investors how overvalued or undervalued a cryptocurrency is at the moment.
Simply 👇🏻
MVRV is below 1: This means that most investors are at a loss and can be interpreted as a potential buying opportunity.
MVRV is above 1: This means that investors are in profit and the price may be overheating.
However, when performing cyclical analysis of each instrument, we can see that different MVRV levels are critical. In instrument X, 1.15 may indicate that the price is overheating, while in instrument Y, 2.00 may indicate that the price is overheating.
Now let's examine AVAX with MVRV Data
In the bull rally we experienced in 2021, AVAX had risen from $5 to $150.
When we examined the MVRV, we witnessed that it had risen from 0.64 to 1.27 points.
When we examine AVAX historically, we can observe that the price overheats when the MVRV score exceeds 1.11 points. However, it should not be forgotten that we are making this examination on weekly data. Therefore, selling everything you have when the MVRV score exceeds 1.11 points will NOT help you maximize your profit in a bull run.
Instead, strategies can be created for gradual selling along with the MVRV score exceeding 1.11 in AVAX. It may be beneficial to do this in 5 or 10 steps. From now on, it is up to you.
Conclusion
In conclusion, by examining the MVRV score of an instrument, we can deduce that investors are at a loss if the price is below 1 (relatively cheap), and relatively profitable if it is above 1.
Historical examinations made specifically for the instrument help us to understand where the price of an instrument heats up based on the MVRV score. In this way, we can create a gradual selling strategy specific to the instrument.
When we look at AVAX, we can see that it offered selling opportunities after 1.11 points in the previous bull run. Following the 1.11 points closely can be beneficial for investors in this bull run.
Thank you for reading.
Cruisers Addresses vs Bitcoin Price... This is a complementary study of this idea:
🧑Cruisers: addresses holding for over a month but under a year. These are mid-term or so-called swing traders.
📈The correlation is positive most of the time with the price of Bitcoin.
🐢However, when looking closely at this indicator, we can see that it has a strong characteristic of a lag indicator (a delayed indicator).
⏳ I'm waiting for this indicator to reach 10 million or if there will be a reversal, to conclude on something.
🎂 And to conclude, December 17, 2022 will be the 5th anniversary of the top of 2017...
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ℹ️ Clarification: The moving average plotted on the chart is 8 weeks or 55 days (exponential smoothed)
Bitcoin: Number of Large Transactions increasingIntoTheBlock labels the large transactions those where an amount greater than $100,000 USD was transferred.
In this case, the Number of Large Transactions indicator aggregates the total number of transactions that had a value greater than $100,000.
The number of large transactions is a relevant metric tracking the count of transactions greater than $100,000.
Since this sum of money is not available to the average retail trader on-chain, the indicator acts as a proxy to the number of whales’ and institutional players’ transactions.
More info: resources.intotheblock.com
An increase in the quantity of these large transactions is accompanied by an increase in price.
This indicator follows a symmetrical triangle, tending to break up.
Perhaps there is one last bear trap to finally reverse into an uptrend.
