EURUSD 1 Dec 2023 Intraday Analysis - US PMI / Powell SpeaksThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 1 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:
4H
15m
Before the analysis, i want to share update on my current short trade on EURUSD. The trade is currently active and secured by moving SL to BE.
My current target is the 15m Swing Low/4H INT Low/Daily CHoCH. My current understanding that we are bullish in structures (15m Swing/ 4H INT / Daily INT) and i should either close my current short or look to long. But as i planned the trade from the start targeting the Liquidity on the Daily i wouldn't change my plan within the trade unless something significant occur (15m INT Structure turns Bullish). By sticking to the plan, i can evaluate my trading analysis and planning to find out where i can improve my trades. In other words what you planed is what you'll get.
Currently there is a chance that price can reverse from here as we are at 15m / 4H Bullish structures extreme.
Trade 15m Chart:
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
INT Bullish
2.
Swing low and last demand for potential buys.
3.
After the Bullish iBOS we expected a pullback. We created a CHOCH and price continued the pullback for the INT Bullish Structure.
Currently we are at the INT Discount/Extreme but there is high probability demand area to contain price from my point of view. Yes, Price could continue the bullish momentum and 4H INT Bullish continuation move. But i prefer to have a well defined Demand Zone to look for trades from.
There is also a pullback required from the 4H Swing which we didn't have it till now and the Daily Liquidity (INT Low on the 4H) could be the target for the daily to get Liquidity for more up side. That's why i don't prefer to trade from an area without seeing Liquidity taken.
Let's see what the LTFs will tell us and we can adopt accordingly while keeping our HTF analysis always in play.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bearish
In Discount / Extreme
2.
As internal Structure turned bearish yesterday. Price continuing bearish and reached the 15m Swing Extreme.
Our expectations that after this deep pullback and if we are going to stay bullish on the 15m Swing, Price could start the bullish 15m Swing continuation.
But the INT structure still bearish so no confirmation yet. there is a risky option that i can see is that the INT to INT Structure turned bullish which could be the first sign for bullish momentum coming after this deep swing pullback.
It's Friday and December starting which is not a preferred trading month. So i'll be cautious with the current price structure and wait for solid options.
3.
INT Structure is in bearish momentum after starting the pullback.
Yesterday EU CPI news was a catalyst for that deep pullback.
