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Intrinsic

Warren Buffett's Margin of SafetyIn the world of investing, few names carry as much weight as Warren Buffett. Often hailed as the Oracle of Omaha, Buffett's wisdom has guided countless investors to financial success. At the core of his investment philosophy lies a concept he considers paramount: the Margin of Safety. Buffett once famously said that the three most important words in investing are "Margin of Safety." To delve deeper into this principle, he pointed to Chapter 20 of "The Intelligent Investor," a seminal work by Benjamin Graham, which he deemed the best chapter ever written on the subject. Chapter 20: The Concept of a Margin of Safety At its essence, the Margin of Safety revolves around the idea that every stock has a fair (intrinsic) value based on the underlying company. However, this fair value often deviates significantly from the stock's current market price. No Margin of Safety: When the stock price exceeds its fair value, there is no margin of safety. Margin of Safety: When the stock price falls below its fair value, a margin of safety exists. Benefits of the Margin of Safety Investing in any asset for less than its intrinsic value is a sound financial decision. However, in the world of investing, where determining precise fair values can be elusive, this principle holds even greater significance. One can never pinpoint an exact fair value; they can only estimate a range. The Margin of Safety serves as a shield against potential errors in estimating fair value. The Mathematical Advantage A Margin of Safety provides two critical mathematical advantages: Downside Protection: Avoiding losses is paramount in investing. It takes a 100% gain to recover from a 50% loss. Therefore, preventing losses should be a top priority. Exponential Returns: Imagine a stock with a fair value of $10 but currently trading at $8, offering a 25% upside. Now, if that same stock were available for $5, the upside potential would skyrocket to 100%. A Margin of Safety can turn a good investment into an exceptional one. Why Do Margins of Safety Exist? The concept of Mr. Market, introduced by Benjamin Graham, plays a pivotal role in understanding the existence of Margins of Safety. Mr. Market is depicted as an impulsive individual, prone to bouts of depression (selling stocks at a discount) and exuberance (selling at a premium). Stock markets exhibit such fluctuations due to the psychological biases and errors of market participants. Understanding this human element is crucial in grasping the significance of Margins of Safety. In the words of Warren Buffett himself, "If you understand chapters 8 and 20 of 'The Intelligent Investor' and chapter 12 of 'The General Theory,' you don't need to read anything else." These chapters provide a foundation for investors to navigate the complexities of the market with the wisdom of a Margin of Safety. In conclusion, the Margin of Safety isn't just a concept; it's a guiding principle that can safeguard your investments and unlock their full potential. Buffett's reverence for this idea underscores its importance in achieving success in the world of finance.
Education
by Vestinda
Unilever (ULVR) Intrinsic Value - DCF ModelUnilever DCF Assumptions: Tax Rate = 23.5% Discount Rate = 4.9% Perpetual Growth Rate = 1.5% EV/EBITDA Multiple = 12.5x Transaction Date = 01/04/2022 Fiscal Year-End = 31/12/2022 Current Price = 41.92 Shares Outstanding = 2,610 Debt = 29,672 Cash = 4,495 Capex = 1,340 Base Case Scenario In addition to the above assumptions, the below DCF model is based on our base case scenario, which assumes a revenue growth over the next five years of 5%, 3%, 3%, 3%, 3%. These assumptions are lower than analysts’ forecasts. DCF (5Y) EBITDA EXIT MODEL: Terminal Value Final Forecast EBITDA (m) = €12,873 EV/EBITDA Multiple = 12.5x TERMINAL VALUE (m) = €160,909 Intrinsic Value Enterprise Value = €162,651 Plus: Cash = €4,495 Less: Debt = €29,672 Equity Value = €137,474 EQUITY VALUE / SHARE = €52.68 / £44.25 DCF (5Y) PERPETUAL GROWTH RATE MODEL Terminal Value Final Forecast FCFf (m) = €8,742 Perpetual Growth Rate = 0.5% TERMINAL VALUE (m) = €201,447 Intrinsic Value Enterprise Value = €195,001 Plus: Cash = €4,495 Less: Debt = €29,672 Equity Value = €169,824 EQUITY VALUE / SHARE = $65.08 / £54.66 DISCLAIMER: All information is the author’s views, opinions, and assumptions at the time of writing, and Bull Headed Bear makes no guarantees of the information’s reliability and accuracy. The information is to be used for entertainment and informative purposes only. Bull Headed Bear and its authors reserve the right to change their views, opinions and assumptions due to many influencing factors. Any actions taken based on the information on the website are strictly at your own risk. All investments carry a risk of loss, and you could lose all your money. Consider seeking professional advice from a financial advisor. Bull Headed Bear and its authors will not be liable for any losses or damages from the information on this site. DISCLOSURE: I/we have open long positions in Unilever. We have no immediate intentions of altering this position in the short term but have the right to change this if more information becomes available.
LSE:ULVR
by BULL_HEADED_BEAR
Value investing chart setI would like to share the set of charts I use to find and analyse candidates for value investing. It is a rather dense and telling setup where you can find a lots of information. Please allow me to explain them one by one. (The chart is made on the company Nippon Tel. It is not a recomendation for anybody to buy Nippon Tel, I use this chart for educational purposes only) So: what can you see in this chart? A LOT! You can, in a glance asses if a company would qualify for value investing or should be avoided. From bottom up here are the panes, charts, indicators explained: There are 3 panes in this setup. In the lowest pane you will find the dividend information. There are 3 indicators telling a lot about the company's endurance and discipline. We can see that in our example - the company has never been missing a dividend payment over the last 15 years (even during the 08 crisis) - the company has been constantly raising the dividends over the last 15 years - the company has made an ever growing diluted EPS (earnings per share) over the last 15 years - the investment in the current price levels would yield 3,69% (bottom right scale) - the company has been very disciplined to pay out about 50% of the earnings per share and retain the rest within the company resulting growing book value In the middle pane you can see the net income (green territory) of the company and the number of common shares outstanding (blue line). We can see that in our example - the company has been constantly making profit over the last 15 years (even during the 08 crisis) - the company constanly buying its shares back thus helping the existing shareholders to keep/grow the equity per share Now the top, main pane tells the most about the company and its share. Here is what you can read from this chart: - the yellow line will show the Debt to Equity ratio What this is telling you is that the company is ran by vigiliant leaders who are keeping a close eye on the company's long and short therm debt and resist the temptation of today's really cheap loans. As Peter Lynch use to say: it is almost impossible to go bankrupt for a company without excessive debt. The ratio Ben Graham and Warren Buffet (also Peter Lynch) finds healthy here is a 1 to 2 debt to equity ratio. In other words, it is assuring if half of the equity covers all the debt of the company. In the case of our example the current value of this ratio is 0,415 which is a very good level of debt. (Industry specific figure!) The company has been constantly paying it's debt back over the last 15 years and although the figure has been growing during the last 2 years it is still under a acceptable level. - the light brown line is the book value or the shareholder1s equity per share Needless to say the for a value investor it is imperative that the book value is steadily growing, just like in our example from 8,8 to 21. What is even more important is that the current price is below the book value per share or in other words a buyer in these price levels gets a 1 on 1 value for his bucks. Just to give you a comparison: today this value for Apple (AAPL) is 30 to 1! So you pay $ 30 for $ 1 of equity when you buy Apple stock. In our example the book value of this company is steadily growing and the price is currently below the book value. - the pink line on the pane is my "invention" as this is the intrinsic value graph which is calculated by the script I have posted already here. I would not explain in details here, please check out my post and all the comments below it for details. This line shows you what would be a fair value of the stock if you take all the dividends and the book value growth that will happen in the next coming 10 years and discount it back to today's value using the 10 years US Note's yield. This is called the intrinsic value of the company and calculating it is rather art than science, says Buffett. In the case of the example company the Intrinsic Value is around 43 while the price is a bit above 20 which means that a value investor has a 100% margin of safety when buying this stock. - the green/red line is another calculated line: Warren's limit price Ben Graham and Warren Buffett uses a rule of thumb saying that the PE (price earning ratio) multiplied by the Price to Book ratio can not result a higher value than 22.5 to be considered a cheap stock. Here I use the Diluted Earnings figure to calculate the PE ratio to take all the convertible securities (options, prefered stocks, warrants, etc) into consideration. This line shows if the stock can be valued as cheap or overpriced. In the case of our example the current price is under the limit price and can be considered an underpriced stock. As you can see there are lots of fundamental informations you can visualise and asses with this chart setup in order to pick your winning stocks for value investing.
Editors' picks
FWB:NTTEducation
by PeterNagy
29
There GOES...REMGRO!Remgro remains one of my favourite “SA Inc” type of company by a country mile. Even after a 16% run over the past week, still leaves the company trading at a current discount to its intrinsic value of over 40% (compared to an average 10-year discount of 15.6%). We therefore firmly believe in the longer-term opportunity REM offers, even at current prices. Also, read our recent report on the company: oldoak.co.za Technically, the resistance level of R96.50 which REM struggled to convincingly break, since July this year, has now been broken, with a run to its 200-day Moving Average (EMA) at R115.75, now becoming highly likely. REM’s 14-day RSI however is getting awfully close to EXTREME OVERBOUGHT levels, which might not make this a “straight line to glory” yet. We could therefore see some profit-taking soon, which could see me reload on some more.
JSE:REM
by SchalkLouw
Trader's Guide to Options Part 3The information in this guide is intended to get you started with your understanding of options, the terminology, and their basic characteristics. In addition to this guide, it is recommended that you study all information available under the education section of your broker’s website. Most brokers who cater to options traders provide good information that will help you learn. Intrinsic Value In-the-money Call options are in-the-money if the stock price is above the strike price. Put options are in-the-money when the stock price is below the strike price. The amount by which an option is in-the-money is referred to as intrinsic value . At-the-money Options are at-the-money when the stock price is trading at or very near the strike price. Out-of-the-money Call options are out-of-the-money if the stock price is below the strike price. Put options are out-of-the-money when the stock price is above the strike price. If an option is out-of-the-money it has no intrinsic value . Time Value Options have two parts that comprise their value; Intrinsic Value and Extrinsic Value. Extrinsic value is also known as time value. When an option is in-the-money (ITM) it has intrinsic value equal to the amount it is ITM. Option price - intrinsic value = time value. XYZ stock is trading at 181.72 The 180 call strike is 1.72 points ITM so, there is $1.72 of intrinsic value. $5.85 is the ask price. $1.72 of this is intrinsic value. $4.13 of the $5.85 ask price is time value. Time value decays as expiration approaches. The closer to expiration, the faster time value decays. Sellers of options use time decay as part of their winning strategy. Time decay is a benefit for option sellers and a problem for option buyers. The Reality of Trading In the real world, investors very rarely exercise their option contracts to take profit from a trade. Instead, they simply BTC or STC the options prior to the expiration date. The advantage of doing so allows them to capture some of the time value of an option, in addition to the intrinsic value. It also allows them to use the leverage of options that do not require the larger amounts of capital required to actually buy and sell the underlying stock. Let’s analyze some examples to become familiar with common terminology: AAPL is trading at $360 and the following shows a BTO of 3 call contracts of the September $355 strike at an ask price of $27.40: The underlying Apple stock value is $360 per share. The expiration date of the call is the third Friday in September. The strike price is $355. The call is in-the-money because the stock price is above the strike price. The premium is $27.40 per share. There is $5.00 of intrinsic value (in-the-money) There is $22.40 of time value (out-of-the-money). Number of shares represented is 300 (3 contracts x 100 shares per contract). Buyer is hoping the stock rises, increasing the intrinsic value and causing the value of the option to also increase. Since the expiration is about 3 months out, on a move higher the position is not subjected to rapid time value decay. MA is trading at $294 and the following represents a STO of 2 put contracts of the July $290 strike at a bid price of $9.50: The underlying Master Card stock value is $294 per share. The expiration date of the put is the third Friday of July. The strike price is $290. The Put is out-of-the-money because the stock price is above the strike price. The premium is $9.50 per share. Number of shares represented is 200 (2 contracts X 100 shares per contract). Seller is hoping that stock remains above $290 at expiration. This will result in time value decaying thus, reducing the price of the option. Since it was STO for $9.50, when time value decays, the seller will be able to BTC for less than $9.50 and lock in a profit. Spreads Call and Put options can be bought and sold in combinations that offer other investment strategies. Some of these include credit spreads, debit spreads, and combination options spreads, to name a few. For example, when opening a spread, one option will be STO and a different option will be BTO. Spreads can be an excellent way to mitigate risk. This concludes the Trader's Guide to Options. Please let us know if you have any questions.
Editors' picks
SP:SPXEducation
by NewCycleTrading
13
FACEBOOK Intrinsic Value ExampleHere I will show you a method to calculate the intrinsic value of a stock. It is based in the idea of how much money can you squeeze out of a company in the future and bringing that amount to present value. The first step is to find a company which is stable, that has a somewhat linear stable growth rate. It is preferred that the debt to equity to be less than 0.5 and current ratio to be more than 1.5. NASDAQ:FB 2 Minutes Video Tutorial: easyupload. io/to2cyd Excel File: easyupload. io/uby6z4
NASDAQ:METAEducation
by gilxhontoci97
GE - Reminder of The TrendReminding viewers of what we posted 17 months ago! Lots of research being published today. The simple version is to remember Basel III agreement TCE ratios. That being addressed, GE will need capital. How that does it remains to be seen. GE needs a minimum of $32.25 billion adding non controlling equity back to the balance sheet. A maximum of $52.56 billion taking out non controlling equity. This equates to a negative $5-$10 per share currently. 2019 Cash Flow is estimated to be ~$8.812 billion. At no growth this produces an intrinsic value of $6.14 - $14.13 per share.
NYSE:GE
by The-Trend-is-the-Friend