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Intuition

Lots of price actionAlot of action from the price. Should I call it price action? This is already its own expression. Price action action? If you followed some of my previous ideas you will have noticed I missed out on USDCNH and it went way down. It could do a small pullback then flush down but I am not sure this is likely. Have the feeling USD is going to recover and I know to listen to my intuition. Making money comes as much as my intuition as from my quantitative approach (thousands of hours of backtesting and compiling stats), and my quant trading itself is the result of intuitions that I looked into. There is no magic formula :( All I can say is my gut feeling is that the USD will recover. If there was a formula to be sure, all the nerds in universities would be billionaires. But instead guys like Nouriel Roubini have predicted 8 of the last 2 recessions & are bearish on Bitcoin since 2010 :D There are logical reasons for me to think the USD could recover, including it has a record number of people selling it. Ah ye also why there is no secret formula is that this exact situation never happened before. There is always something that makes it the first time. It is never the exact same. Intuition > all because it is the only thing that can give you decent confidence you'll still be around in the long run (unless you risk 5% per trade or sell naked calls) as opposed to finding a system. The USD pairs are going to change phase, maybe not a complete reversal into an uptrend, but the downtrend I think will stop, and shift to sideways at least. Euro pairs GBP pairs Then even more is moving, in particular the Australian pairs Apart from FX there are some notable things going on. I crack up when I look at those 😆 Geez what is up with this? I hope no retail inverse ETF "investor" bought or there will be an investigation. Also copper is continuing its trend up and I was sure I was in it but apparently not, it got closed Friday afternoon and not re-opened. I don't understand I don't remember... Misclic maybe? Or I was drunk? maybe I thought "this is not a perfect setup" and I exited early with small profit? I don't even remember yikes. Well, going to have to wait for the next pullback now... Nickel also continues to skyrocket, tradingview does not have the chart but they have the ETF ones, so I'll show this Yes commodity ETF are bad (if used wrong) especially leveraged. If you think you can make easy money shorting them, yes maybe, but you have to think, how much alpha will I generate? Will you make better than the risk free return? Just because it looks like free money does not mean it is good. I did not even look into it I doubt it is really worth it. That's it for FX & the commodities I watch. I can't be bothered looking at stocks nor crypto nor real estate nor fixed income.
by MrRenev
5
TSLA Earnings GDFR?Ok, I this is for testing my skill level and entertainment only. I have guidance and my dowsing suggests she's going down in a significant way. It could go a couple ways. A pop and then reverse down (it's doing atm, so maybe it's that energy), or, it's sold and bought up. But, in the bigger picture, TSLA starts heading south.The stock some love to hate may be brought, perhaps not down to Earth, but at least within Earth's atmosphere. I see 11%. My pendulum went to 12%. This I think would be the initial move of a retracement, however, it stays in an uptrend.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by JenRz
Short to $15-16This came in meditation back on 1/13 with the word "Rangold" I guess so I don't confuse it with the metal. I also got the number $22. When this has happened before, you expect it to get to that number and you best get out. I hesitated in posting this partially out of laziness, or maybe fear that it was accurate information and a bit freaky. Regardless, the idea is these are done and it's definitely working, so why not share and also keep for my records? Symmetry resistance held up yesterday with a nice follow through this morning and breaking an important symmetry support at $20.79. I'm looking for $15.10 area. That seems pretty ambitious, but that's what I'm getting.
TVC:GOLDShort
by JenRz
Bitcoin: The bear market is back!Bitcoin fast moving average 50MA has just crossed below the slow moving average 200MA. This is known as a death cross, and according to Bitcoin investors it is of the utmost importance. Unsurprisingly, Bitcoin rallied to $10,000. Once again, Bitcoin did exactly what I said it would, and once again, bulls are sending messages to me telling me how I got burned and what an idiot I am. Shows you how stupid they are. It's funny, but also a little sad. I am going to look at what BTC did in previous death crosses but first I want to look at some of the trades I took in the past. 1) Other assets dip rallies GBPNZD GBPJPY GBPAUD EURSEK GBPJPY BTCUSD That shadow, it reminds me of gold in 2016: So anyway, it can go both ways. But the resistance was the area to take profit at. What I normally do is use a trailing stop loss. I would let it retrace about 25%, and if it is trending up with the 4 hour EMAs close, I would use them. BTC consolidated so long down there and then went up suddenly, so the EMAs (20,50) are too far to use. I just closed here, because of my strong bias against Bitcoin. And also my Bitmex account is so small I don't really care. 2) Price behavior in general If Bitcoin price starts behaving like Forex & Gold that would be awesome. EU idiotic regulators might even let me use decent leverage so I can "make my comeback" and trade it on my main accounts. Probably won't happen xd Merchants are now prefering Tether to Bitcoin XD With non-crypto fiat currencies, businesses have what is known as the "foreign exchange risk". To eliminate that risk, they trade on the gigantic Foreign Exchange market (it is so enormous because we live in an age where massive amounts of goods get imported and exported). Just like the Futures market, this is made possible because a large amount of speculators are happy to take the "commercials"/hedgers risk to try and make a profit. But with Bitcoin, companies cannot do that because it is too volatile for them, in terms of percent, they do have the CME futures that are trustworthy but not really since they gap so much. Not sure how that works, maybe they don't care about gaps. But if the thing goes up 150% in 2 days and they get margin called, asked to pour more money into their cme account... What is the point. They don't want to bother with market fluctuation that's not their job, this is what they want to get rid of. I am not going to discuss it entirely in this post, but I bet Bitcoin was the most adopted or adoption by merchants went up the fastest when the price was the less volatile, back in 2015 around that period. If Bitcoin finds an area when it can calm down, merchants might adopt it, but they will always fear a sudden 500% swing... Bitcoin success killed it. It is no more than a greater fool game at the moment. The more it goes up, the less value it has, funny. 3) Previous Bitcoin death cross We can see that since Tether, the price of Bitcoin has been spiking up with death crosses that did not happen just after a small golden cross without much follow up. Must be a coincidence. 4) High Timeframe chart 5) Warning Alot of eager buyers & bagholders. And Tether. It's too easy... it's ridiculous... How can this be a thing... Price first pumps on empty books and no volume, then the vast majority get excited and buy. Buuut. It keeps happening. I guess it will happen again at 3500, 1800, 1000. Something tells me "if we drop below 3500 the price will go straight past 1800" but no I think it will rally again. "When every one knows about a strategy it stops working as every one abuses it". Not in crypto. There are legions of eager buyers, very eager to buy after a pump and then not sell. Feels like taking candy from a child, well, a "special" child. If the child was not so obnoxious I would even feel guilty about it. IF. Only downside is it can be month before the pump. Capital is frozen until then. Maybe that's why it doesn't get abused into oblivion. But there are so many crypto traders. Maybe they're just really bad and anyone decent is just in FX stocks or futures. Let's hope it keeps going down so we can scam gullibulls the next times the "bull market is back". If price keeps going up careful about buying pullbacks. These bulls want to "get in at the bottom". Can bulls suddenly wake up and realize they are being scammed? No, they can't, too brainwashed. Incredible. No risk. (This is not advice bla bla there is risk). There are noobish "experts" that keep buying on the way down and actually make money when it bounces. If it ever doesn't go up then they lose huge at once. This HAS to be how it ends. They can't keep getting free no risk money. We HAVE to run out of suckers eventually. Only take 1 loser to wipe them out. I think it's best to stick to using stops for when buyers finally stop showing up. The free money well has to have a bottom. Even if buyers don't stop throwing money in the fire, eventually those profiting from it will be so big they kill the market. "Ye I'll just keep trading pumps until I'm big then stop" <=== Never ended well. Be careful with the free money well, I like Bitmex because the most you can lose is your whole account. I don't know how I am doing it, but I have found it really easy to see pumps coming right before they happen, a few hours or minutes. If my subconscious mind could let me know what information it is using to sense those... Stupid brain. Keeping secrets from me? That's crazy.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MrRenev
43
BNB Retracement (and up to 0.00580000)I'll be sharing ideas based on personal perspectives. I won't be sharing details of why I believe this idea is true, I'm enjoying learning day by day, and this gives me joy, I've been learning slowly, and trying to get accurate signals and details based on my curiosity. If you feel like having a conversation, lets do it, I will love to hear you, and if you feel curious about my analysis, I'll be happy to share my ideas with you. Thanks and have and I hope you have an amazing life. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Correction: (in chart) 2nd Target at 0.0058000
Short
by MellowCrypto