Heating oil and gasoline supply remain tightOil demand, driven by China is an area of strength, but a slowing Chinese economy could weaken this. However, OPEC’s resolve to keep markets tight is strong. Petroleum product markets – heating oil and gasoline – are especially tight with inventory significantly below normal and prices have hit ‘golden crosses’ : technical analyst parlance for bullish conditions. Positioning in heating oil futures is a standard deviation above 5-year average after rising by 49% last month1. A combination of rising longs and contracting shorts drove the trend amid a 17% rally in heating oil in the past month1.
Heating oil inventory has fallen 15% and inventory is now than a standard deviation below 5-year average2. While not as steep as last year, the 0.8% positive roll yield on heating oil futures marks a break from the pre-2022 historic trend of contango in August3. At 8.6%, the positive front month roll yield on gasoline futures appears larger than seasonally normal (although a positive front month roll is expected at this time of the year)3.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), world oil demand is scaling record highs, boosted by strong summer air travel, increased oil use in power generation and surging Chinese petrochemical activity. Global oil demand is set to expand by 2.2 mb/d to 102.2 mb/d in 2023, with China accounting for more than 70% of growth. With the post-pandemic rebound running out of steam, and as lacklustre economic conditions, tighter efficiency standards and new electric vehicles weigh on use, growth is forecast to slow to 1 mb/d in 2024. Russian oil exports held steady at around 7.3 mb/d in July, as a 200 kb/d decline in crude oil loadings was offset by higher product flows. Crude exports to China and India eased month on month but accounted for 80% of Russian shipments.
Global observed oil inventories declined by 17.3 mb in June, led by the OECD. Non-OECD stocks and oil on water were largely unchanged. OECD industry stocks fell by 14.7 mb, in line with the seasonal trend, to 2,787 mb. Industry stocks were 115.4 mb below the five-year average, with product inventories particularly tight. Preliminary data observed by the IEA suggest global inventories drew further in July and August.
Refiners are struggling to keep up with demand growth, as the shift to new feedstocks, outages and high temperatures have forced many operators to run at reduced rates. Tight gasoline and diesel markets have pushed margins to six-month highs. Heating oil (Ultra Low Sulphur Diesel) prices rose 17% in the past month, reflecting this tightness.
OPEC+’s aggressive cuts are continuing to tighten the oil market. Saudi Arabia’s voluntary supply cuts have helped oil curves remain in backwardation.
Source:
1 Commodity Futures Trading Commission as of 15 August 2023
2 change in inventory over the past 3 months, United States Department of Agriculture as of 15 August 2023
3 Calculated as difference between front month and second month futures prices as of 15 August 2023
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Inventories
Crude oil inventories on record high. Price rallys up. Why?The last time we had numbers like that was shortly after the lockdown, beginning to mid from April 2020.
Do we have this high inventory numbers of 19m against expected -2m and an initiative upmove in oil because everybody is expecting China to open the doors again?
Or what is happening here...?
Often the day after the inventories is the day where the market reacts in the expected direction. In my opinion a short!
USDCAD => Weekly Forecast CAD With OIL Inventories What Expectedwe appreciate your coming for taking the time to read our idea please do not forget to hit the like it's our only reward🙌
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Check today analysis
Fundamentals
CAD GDP DATA expected Low Short USDCAD
If Oil Inventories Recover Long USDCAD Expected]
Crude Oil Inventories Data Release =>11:00 am Thursday, Eastern Time (ET)
CAD GDP DATA => 8:30 am Friday, Eastern Time (ET)
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CSCO Heavy Dark Pool Quiet Rotation™The increase in Dark Pool Quiet Rotation™ as Buy Side Institutions lower inventories of CSCO shares has weighed heavily on the stock price in the past few weeks. This does not bode well for the CSCO earnings report.
Overall view of XTIUSD or Crude Oil - Update of July 15th's weekPushed by institutional inventories after a plunge from the yearly high, crude oil slightly broke upside the previous supply level @60.000. The energy security has been calmly ranging for two days while the long-institutions and short-retailer holding volumes are increasing. In another hand the daily traded volume is decreasing : We shall still experience a continuation of the upside movement.
Possible Target: @64.000 (+3400 pips).
Advice: Stay bullish and buy any low point while we don't break downside @58.000 level.
Overall view of XTIUSD or Crude Oil - Week of July 1st updateOil settled at the resistance zone by testing the institutional level of @60.000. The EIA inventory report showed a massive cut of 12M barrels last week while Russia and China agreed to extend their cuts on a 9-months span. Prices remain bullish and we might expect a bullish continuation : However a strong pullback from Friday June 28th exalts us to remain neutral, awaiting a confirmation. Thus odds of a trend continuation are medium.
Possible targets: @55.000 (+2000pips or 2.00$ per barrel) if bearish or @63.000 (+3000pips or 3.00$ per barrel) if bullish.
Advice: Stay bullish and buy at any low point while we don't break the @55.000 bottom level or await a confirmation.
WTI Crude Oil Long opportunity... $100 oil by 2019?The last trade we got stopped out on with Crude Oil, as it came down to lower fib levels and bounced off the 100EMA, now if oil can stay above both of these levels we can see a move towards $70 and aiming for $78
Use the fib or the suggested levels for a SL, will update as the week goes in, watch out for this upcoming inventories...
Wed 24th at 3:30pm we have US Crude Oil inventories news release:
www.forexfactory.com
have a powerful week, please like and share if this chart has helped you
Crude Oil at resistance. Crude Oil at resistance level, going above 61.535 opens the upside to 63.60/64. Buy on daily close above 61.535. Attention to fundamentals, inventories, and OPEC before decision is made.
23/08/2017 US Oil AnalysisTVC:USOIL
"Oil up more than one percent on eighth weekly U.S. crude drawdown" www.reuters.com
WTI LongYesterday WTI closed above 200 MA on the daily candle and the reports for EIA about a possible deficit due to the OPEP cuts on the production with the first lower inventories in USA backed this view on the fundamental side.
$ORIG POSSIBLE BULLISH SETUP for OIL ANGELS, 5th wave incomingOcean Rig UDW Inc.(NASDAQ:ORIG)
$ORIG POSSIBLE BULLISH SETUP, 5TH WAVE ABOVE 0.75 INCOMING
August 12, 2016
Shares of Ocean Rig UDW Inc. ORIG, were nearly halved in premarket trade Friday, after the oil services company said it would continue to explore reorganization strategies that could include bankruptcy given the continuation of "extremely negative" market conditions. The company said late Thursday that oil companies continue to reduce their offshore budgets, the floater rig market is expected to become even more oversupplied than it already is, and a recovery may not occur for several years. "We continue to explore and consider alternatives, which may include a possible reorganization under US bankruptcy laws or another jurisdiction, so that we can ride out this very difficult cycle with feasible prospects for strong, long-term success." The stock plunged 61% ahead of the open.
WTI PULL BACK BEFORE INVENTORIESToday promises to be moved into the WTI, with the possibility of wide ranges of price day. The underlying trend is bullish, but a cut after sharp rises is very healthy.
www.fxstreet.com
$WTI - Refiner Outages Approaching, P Action around $42.5 KeyUsing $42.50 as a support level, a bounce off that level would be considered bullish, but if prices fail to hold, a return to $37.50 seems probable. This implies a negative 200 day SMA cross, which suffice it to say, would be a return to the bearish int term trend. This, in concert with a low energy demand season approaching and several refiner outages expected in coming months, which would imply further inventory builds to already record levels.
