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Inverseetf

TMV Triple Inverse Treasury Bill ETF LONGTMV on the 4H chart appears to be reversing a trend down since 12/28. YTD it is rising. The reasonable target is the Fib 0.5 retracement at $40 while support for a stop loss just below the POC line of the volume profile is $29.25. As such this is a 35% upside. The RSI indicator shows the fast RSI rising and crossing over the slower RSI while the relative volume indicator shows increasing volumes reacting to the price bottoming and accumulation underway. I see this as a long trade set up while recognizing that fundamentals such as interest rate adjustments and inflation data could impact the technicals.
AMEX:TMVLong
by AwesomeAvani
WHY INVERSE ETF IS NOT AN INVESTMENTSomeone asked me about TZA, the Russell 2k inverse bear fund etf. These inverse bear ETFs DO NOT CONTAIN STOCK. They hold only futures contracts, which continually EXPIRE, like options. These funds are effectively like put option substitutes, they suffer severe, continuous time decay. Please observe price since inception. That is not a typo. Adjusted for reverse splits over the years, price has declined from $1.5m to $36 per share last week. People ask me, "How high can it go? If Russell sells off 10% more, will they go up 30%?" Well, maybe IF it it sells off 10% NEXT WEEK. IF NOT, then it might not increase at all, time decay is considerable and if market takes three months to sell off again, these shares will be more likely to trade in the $12-20 area, even if the market moves in their favor. Time decay is real, you cannot hold these more than a few days or at most weeks, even during the most bearish of markets. A strong bear market rally like we had last week melts inverse ETFs and the price NEVER COMES BACK, they get to lower highs with each successive bear move. Pull the chart out to right to see recent etf price moves during covid and in corrections since. It never gets back to the previous highs. Guaranteed to wipe out your Roth IRA and Education Trust funds, please don't bet the farm on these! Instruments of financial suicide IMO. I have successfully traded them but rarely hold more than a week. Bull 2x, 3x ETFs work the same way, in the other direction, they are long on futures contracts, and in a bull market like 2021, they just go up all year with a few minor setbacks, doubling and doubling. But when the Bear comes, the Bull funds crack in half or worse. TQQQ, the bull 3x shares, traded at $25 last week, down from $125 in January, gosh, -80%!! This past few months has been most bearish since 2008 and the inverse funds did quite well, other than the March rally which cut them in half... If you buy them here you're probably buying at a near-term market bottom, paying high premium price for these funds, and getting set up to hold the bag. Even if price does not change much over the summer, these ETFs will time decay and can easily go in half over three months! I personally know of one contributor who invested a large sum in SQQQ during the bear move in September 2021, buying at or near the market bottom, he paid $45 for it in September 21. Asked me what to do? 'I lost so much, will it come back?!' Sadly, NO. Last week the price was $50 bucks again, yay, got his money back, right?! WRONG. Stock REVERSE split 1:5 last year when it traded under six bucks. So you got 1 share for every five you had, an 80% loss (AGAIN THAT 80% LOSS FIGURE). Hold it for a few more months to lose another 50%, be out 90%, etc etc. If you hold these long enough, you WILL lose 99% of your investment, guaranteed. Attached link on UVXY Kudos to Hungry_Hippo, same most excellent advice! Leveraged funds are tricky as Hell and will cut your account in half again and again if you do not time the market exactly! Good luck with that!
AMEX:TZAEducation
by DaddySawbucks
10
SPXU INVERSE ETF TRADING IDEA FOR FOMC MEETING 3/16/22This is my trading strategy for March 16th, 2022 on the next FOMC meeting. Using inverse 3 x etf is like doing options without options. They track opposite of whatever it is they track. In this case the SPXU does the exact opposite of the SPY S&P 500 ETF .. The spy tracks the S&P 500 markets. So I'm setting up a position on morning opening day of March 16th, Wednesday with $6,660 position anticipating a 5-8% return x 3x since the SPXU is a 3 x inverse.. Be very careful using 3x inverse or any inverse etf . YOU HAVE TO WATCH THEM LIKE A HAWK. They are not meant for long term or swing trade. They are for 1 day intra day only and can be very dangerous if you don't use them properly. They can also make you quick FAST money , BUT YOU CAN ALSO LOOSE ALL YOUR MONEY IN 1 DAY, if you DON'T KNOW what you are doing.. This is what I am doing. I am not giving trading advice. I simply share some of my trading ideas here... PS.Disclaimer I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA , an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this TA,( Technical Analysis ) site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, trading, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using or reading this technical analysis you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this analysis, post or newsletter.
AMEX:SPYShort
by CryptoBuzzAnalyst
Don't underestimate Burry's predictionsLong-term bond yields will continue to rise in response to higher inflation expectations. Therefore, instruments like TTT, TMV and TBT have ample room to continue rising (you can see the positive correlation between the two). In addition, all 3 appear in the portfolio of Scion Asset Management, owned by Michael Burry. I simply do not subscribe to the idea that he has already liquidated these positions, considering that the inflation that he foresees has not yet materialized and that the fed has not raised rates yet, not counting the fact that he is not usually the guy who sells before his bet is fully completed, he is able to hold very risky assets for a long time, and I think this is the case. From my perspective, this is just the beginning.
AMEX:TMVLong
by amateur_trad3r
2
3x inverse funds as a contrarian indicator3x inverse ETFs let you use leverage to bet against stocks. This chart shows the 14-day Money Flow Indicator (MFI 14) on a 3x inverse semiconductor fund (SOXS). SOXS is an inverse leveraged bet on the SOXX semiconductor ETF, which is also shown on the chart. Interestingly, the flow of money into and out of SOXS has often been a contrarian indicator of where SOXX is headed. SOXS gets big inflows just as SOXX hits bottom. It gets big outflows just as SOXX hits top. If you do the opposite of whatever SOXS traders are doing, you can do pretty well. SOXS made a peak on Friday that may imply that SOXX has bottomed and will begin to move up. Short SOXS or long SOXX would be the play here.
AMEX:SOXS
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
4
Could Real Estate be the next "Shoe" to drop?AMEX:REK Though it may be a little early to tell, we might just might see a buyer's market emerging in real estate in the next few months to come. Although, not a popular ETF, this short ProShares ETF seeks a return that is -1x of the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index. I know it's probably not most pleasing though to think the real estate market could go down, but it is possible that the recent 3 million Americans unemployed due to the Coronavirus could be one of the first signs of an economic slowdown. Historically, if you look at how monetary policy plays a role into the economy, lowering the Fed Funds rate helps loosen credit so that banks and business pay less interest. However, this in turn often affects fixed income and mortgage rates. After the 2008 Financial crisis, the Federal reserve initiated QE, short for quantitative easing, which can be thought of as an injection of money into the heart of our financial system... or as like to say "printing money." We have seen a similar action taken by the Federal Reserve recently. Under "normal" conditions real estate prices move opposite of mortgage rates. You either spend more money for a house or commercial property and pay a lower interest rate, or you wait for real estate prices to fall, but enter a mortgage with a bit of a higher interest rate. In this situation, we have unemployment on the rise in the U.S. and globally. Businesses around the world are closing... some of which may be permanent, people are not spending money, and may fall in debt. In some states, such as California, major banks have a 90 day waiver on residential mortgage payments to provide time for people to get back to work. However, it is uncertain if many of the unemployed population will have a job to return to in order to meet their obligations to the bank. Throughout the bull market, shares of REK have been steadily declining as interest rates have been near 0 for most of that time, allowing the economy to strengthen. However, since the initial drop on Feb 28th, 2020, REK has increased by 50% and the average volume has since increased 10-fold. On a daily basis, the average volume of shares traded has been ~24,000 range. In recent days that number has increase to ~240,000. What are your thoughts? Where do you see Real Estate heading in the next few months to come?
AMEX:REK
by UnknownUnicorn6775423
8