Inversion
BUY $GILD - NR Picks Dec 06EN: Gilead Sciences, Inc. is an American biopharmaceutical company based in Foster City, California, that researches, develops and markets drugs in under-explored areas of medical need in the United States, Europe, and
internationally. Its products include treatments for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and liver disease.
It is currently at a key level of the last three months that could indicate a change in trend, being able to surpass its resistance of 61 - 62 and would reach the sell zone.
It should be mentioned that in recent years its dividend has increased from 2% in 2015 to 4% in 2020. December 14 is its cutoff date and it is scheduled to pay dividends on December 30.
In terms of its income structure, products related to HIV treatment represent 70% of its income, its main market being the United States.
ES: Gilead Sciences, Inc. es una compañía biofarmacéutica estadounidense con sede en Foster City, California, que investiga, desarrolla y comercializa medicamentos en áreas de necesidades médicas poco exploradas en los
Estados Unidos, Europa e internacionalmente. Sus productos incluyen tratamientos contra la infección por el virus de la inmunodeficiencia humana (VIH) y enfermedades hepáticas.
Actualmente se encuentra en un nivel clave de los últimos tres meses que podría indicar un cambio de tendencia, pudiendo sobrepasar su resistencia de los 61 – 62 y alcanzaría la zona de venta.
Cade mencionar que en los últimos años ha ido incrementado su dividendo pasando de 2% en el 2015 a un 4% en el 2020. El 14 de Diciembre es su fecha de corte y tiene programado pagar dividendos el 30 de Diciembre.
En cuanto a su estructura de ingresos los productos relacionados al tratamiento del VIH representan un 70% de sus ingresos siendo su mercado principal Estados Unidos.
BUY $HYLN - NR Picks Dec 06EN: Hyliion Holdings Corp. (HYLN) is a SPAC that develops and sells electrified powertrain solutions for the commercial transportation industry, such as Class 8 trucks. On October 1, 2020, it completed its merger with Tortoise
Acquisition Corp (SNPR) producing approximately US$ 520M of net profits to finance growth plans and long-term goals that we believe are sustainable and profitable.
As all Ev's companies, in November Hyliion went through a 48% rally in their share prices, thanks to new gas emission reduction policies in the UK and the announcement of Tesla's (TSLA) addition to the S&P500 index that
boosted the EV's sector.
In recent weeks a profit-taking has been appreciated in this sector and the company lost much of that rally by placing itself on a sideway channel between $24.01 and $17.85
We expect a new rotation to the Ev's sector taking advantage of the euphoria that Tesla's entry into the S&P500 in the coming weeks and despite the fact that competition in EV's is tough and there're a lot of good
companies. Hyliion has a very interesting operating model where its technology is based on renewable natural compressed gas which in the environmental field makes it one of the best alternatives for investors, that is
why, we like Hyllion over others to take advantage for that possible rebound of the sector, and purchasing a return of approximately 17%.
ES: Hyliion Holdings Corp. (HYLN) es una SPAC que diseña, desarrolla y vende soluciones electrificadas de tren motriz para la industria del transporte comercial, como los camiones Clase 8. El 1 de octubre de 2020 la compañía
logró completar su fusión con Tortoise Acquisition Corp (SNPR) produciendo aproximadamente US$ 520M de ganancias netas para financiar sus planes de crecimiento y objetivos a largo plazo que creemos son sostenibles y
muy rentables.
Como todas las Ev's, durante el mes de noviembre Hyliion atravesó un rally del 48% en el precio de sus acciones, gracias a nuevas políticas de reducción de emisión de gases en el Reino Unido y el anuncio de la incorporación
de Tesla (TSLA) al índice S&P500 que impulsó al sector de EV's en general.
En las últimas semanas se apreció una toma de ganancias en este sector y la compañía perdió gran parte de ese rally ubicándose en un canal lateral entre los US$24.01y US$ 17.85.
Nosotros esperamos una nueva rotación al sector de Ev's aprovechando la euforia que generará el ingreso de Tesla al S&P500 en las próximas semanas, a pesar de que la competencia en las EV's es dura y existen numerosas
compañías. Hyliion tiene un modelo operativo muy interesante donde su tecnología se basa en gas natural comprimido renovable lo que en el ámbito ambiental la convierte en una de las mejores alternativas para los
inversores, es por esto, que nos parece una buena alternativa por sobre otras para aprovechar ese posible rebote del sector, y ofrecernos un retorno de 17% aproximadamente.
BUY $CHL - NRPicks Dec 13HIGHLIGHTS
ES:
China Mobile no solo es el mayor operador de telecomunicaciones de China por el número de suscriptores móviles (946 millones), sino también el más grande del mundo.
El precio de su acción sufrió un retroceso de 18% desde el 11 de noviembre, y se ubica dentro de una tendencia bajista desde el 2015. Este comportamiento es propiamente sectorial y lo podemos corroborar en compañías comparables como Telefónica ($TEF) y América Móvil ($AMX).
Fundamentos:
- Defensiva
- P/E Ratio de 7.2x, VS 42.3x y 19.8x de la industria y de mercado respectivamente
- P/B 0.7x VS 1.9x de industria
- ROE 9.4% VS 4.8% de industria
- Precio actual de $28.29 VS $142 Fair Value (80% subvaluado)
- 6.2% Deuda/Capital
Técnicos:
- Debajo de SMA 200
- +150% volumen promedio diario (1 Mes)
- RSI sobreventa
- +12% upside promedio en los últimos meses (Retroceso Fibonacci)
La compañía no ha sido afectada por problemas operativos debido a que mantiene un nivel de ventas constante y nivel de deuda controlado.
EN:
China Mobile is not only China's largest telecom operator by the number of mobile subscribers (946 million), but also the largest in the world.
The price of its stock suffered an 18% decline since November 11, and is within a downtrend since 2015. This behavior is very sectoral and we can corroborate it in comparable companies such as Telefónica ($TEF) and América Móvil ($AMX).
Fundamentals:
- Defensive
- P/E Ratio of 7.2x, VS 42.3x and 19.8x industry and market respectively
- P/B 0.7x VS 1.9x industry
- ROE 9.4% VS 4.8% industry
- Current price of $28.29 VS $142 Fair Value (80% undervalued)
- 6.2% Debt/Capital
Technical:
- Under to SMA 200
- +150% average daily volume (1 Month)
- Oversold RSI
- +12% upside average in recent months (Fibonacci)
The company has not been affected by operational issues because it maintains a consistent level of sales and controlled debt level.
BUY $UVXY - NR Picks Dec 06EN:
The investment seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to one and one-half times (1.5x) the performance of the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index for a single day. The index seeks to offer exposure to market volatility through publicly traded futures markets and is designed to measure the implied volatility of the S&P 500 over 30 days in the future.
We view levels 11 - 12 as key for the remainder of the year and some volatility could be observed in the following weeks considering the market situation that reached all-time highs in recent weeks.
ES:
Este índice busca ofrecer exposición a la volatilidad del mercado a través de los mercados de futuros que cotizan en bolsa y está diseñado para medir la volatilidad implícita del S&P 500 durante 30 dÍas en el futuro.
Consideramos los niveles 11 - 12 como claves para lo que queda del año y se podría observar algo de volatilidad en las siguientes semanas considerando la coyuntura del mercado que alcanzo máximos históricos en las últimas semanas.
BUY $FE - NR Picks Dec 06EN: FirstEnergy is one of the largest utilities in the United States with ten distribution companies serving six million customers in six Mid-Atlantic and Midwest states.
FistEnergy is an operationally good company, but it continues to have bribery problems on the directors which has pushed the share price down to low levels. The company also shows stability in dividends, the delivery is
quarterly and the yield is greater than 3% in the last 5 years.
The company has a low exposure to the market, therefore, it is a good option to avoid a lot of exposure to the market. Let us remember that optimism is reaching a drain. With respect to the company, being a Utility
generates constant income which allows it to meet its annual financial obligations.
ES: FirstEnergy es una de las empresas de servicios públicos más grandes de los Estados Unidos con diez empresas de distribución que atienden a seis millones de clientes en seis estados del Atlántico medio y del medio oeste.
FistEnergy es una compañía operacionalmente buena, pero continua con problemas de soborno sobre los directivos lo cual la ha hecho retroceder el precio de la accion a niveles minimos. La compañía tambien muestra
estabilidad en dividendos, la entrega es trimestral y el rendimiento mayor al 3% los ultimos 5 años.
La compañía tiene una baja exposición al mercado, por lo cual, es una buena opcion para evitar mucha exposición al mercado. Recordemos que el optimismo esta llegando a un desgate. Con respecto a la empresa, al ser
una utility genera ingresos constantes los cuales permiten poder cumplir con sus obligaciones financieras anuales.
BUY $WBA - NRPicks Nov 29Walgreens Boots Alliance opera cerca de 19,000 ubicaciones en 50 estados y 25 países. El posicionamiento defensivo central es principalmente alrededor de la farmacia que se ubica en lugares de alto tráfico. Actualmente, la empresa tiene la mayor cuota de mercado de farmacias minoristas (alrededor del 20%, sin incluir el correo), lo que proporciona importantes ventajas de costes y escala.
La compañía tuvo un retroceso de 16% después que el 17 de noviembre Amazon lanzó su nueva linea de Amazon Pharmacy, la cual podría ser una competencia potente y directa, sin embargo, creemos que la Walgreens ha sido sobre afectada con la noticia.
Uno de los puntos a favor de la compañía es el crecimiento en el rendimiento de dividendos que entregan, además, no se ha podido ver una recuperación importante en el precio de la acción en relación con el precio Pre-covid19 lo cual la hace atractiva.
USDJPY and the US 2 YEAR YIELD CORRELATION 'CRACK'Since the YC inversion in August last year (2019), there has been a "crack" in correlation between the US02Y and USDJPY.
I expected the YEN to strengthen as the Japanese short the dollar against the YEN to hedge against the rising US Govt bond prices (due to the rate cuts) considering Japan holds a significant amount of US Govt debt.
My initial thoughts on this is that the BOJ is focused on keeping the YEN weak to stimulate its export sector which accounts for a significant amount of its trade.
At the expense of its debt ballooning ?????
I'll be looking into this during the weekend.
-Surecapital
AUD/NZD COMPRA - DIARIOEl precio esta rechazando la linea de tendencia alcista en gráfico diario. Esperamos como primer objetivo ir a buscar la media móvil de 200 periodos. Aunque podría llegar a buscar la zona alcanzada de los 1.08000 entre el 5 y 8 de Noviembre.
Tomar beneficios parciales en 1.04700 y mover a breakeven.
Fib 50 retracement and bearish movePrice is forming a small downwards trend to a pre-existing major ascending trend line.
The minor small pink trend line has a bearish bar forming outside.
RSI is close to the over bought.
I would like to sell the position down to the trend line. The projection of the trend line coincides with numerous levels of Fibonacci confluence.
TRX Worth a lookHello =)
This is only a possible scenario.
Last divergence generated a nice swing high. good possible gains.
We then moved lower along with the BTC drop and plenty of other coins.
What is interesting though, is that, on one hand we have a situation on a long term Time Frame that is not looking very good now; on the other hand we have multiple Divergences ( possible kick-off (a)? ), a dynamic support that is holding the lower lows, Moving Averages getting tighter.
ETH and LTC are showing a similar condition, BTC is showing a POTENTIAL shorter term inversion formation. (correction)
If price is currently attracted to a lower price for different matters, but we first take an upwards correction as this analysis suggests, This is one possible scenario I am working on.
I'm just a trading student, I've been studying and trading for 2 years now, -ABC- denominations from EW are purely indicative of the possible directions, I'm not a good EW analyst.
TRX Worth a look (bear trend still in troubles?)Hello =)
This is only a possible scenario.
Last divergence generated a nice swing high. good possible gains.
We then moved lower along with the BTC drop and plenty of other coins.
What is interesting though, is that, on one hand we have a situation on a long term Time Frame that is not looking very good now; on the other hand we have multiple Divergences ( possible kick-off (a)? ), a dynamic support that is holding the lower lows, Moving Averages getting tighter.
ETH and LTC are showing a similar condition, BTC is showing a POTENTIAL shorter term inversion formation. (correction)
If price is currently attracted to a lower price for different matters, but we first take an upwards correction as this analysis suggests, This is one possible scenario I am working on.
I'm just a trading student, I've been studying and trading for 2 years now, -ABC- denominations from EW are purely indicative of the possible directions, I'm not a good EW analyst.
DOGE path across BTC may be the lead altcoins requireA lot of recent talk has turned around on a massive resistance thought to be just ahead for BTC. Bullish sentiment sees this resistance level as eminently surmountable, yet, as altcoins slump and quiver in BTC's dominance, hovering somewhere near 56 per cent of the market, what the market may signal is the desire for a short term correction. Saying this, however, may be overstating the intrinsic value of tokens on the exchange. We're certainly seeing a plethora of IEO plays in recent times: the Binance release of its distributed exchange and its embrace of Atomic COSMOS; BITFINEX announcement of the May 11 close of its private sale of LEO and related security token, aiming to raidse $1B in USDT-backed coin. DGTX is another, albiet delayed, offering, one expected to fly sometime this summer, though it is already available, just not on the exchange whose attraction and activity it will represent.
The case for coins linked to revenue generating trading activity, and the decoupling of these coins from all tokens being traded distinguishes them from altcoins; the influence over exchange tokens by BTC alone, despite its market cap dominance, will be relatively light. What we may see is both an erosion of the altcoins and the elevation of the exchange tokens. The reason might be the idea exchange revenues impart an intrinsic value. But there's something wrong with that picture, in the context of IOTA's difficulties retaining value and the apparent need for correction of BTC for the altcoins to realize BTC value gains: people don't invest long term. The retail trade which forms the backbone of the market seems to pull out energetically from a coin being traded and at greater heft than might be seen with FOREX trading pairs.
As a consequence of these factors, it looks like long term investing does not touch any other coin but Bitcoin in any supporting sense. Still, this is a bit of an assumption, and may not bear scrutiny well enough to hold so as to support the implied argument, by extension, that the intrinsic value of Ethereum (ETH) as a contract enabler (though at least one Bitcoin variant makes this possible, too) is not enough. The market may require packaged funds as a bridge to more diverse offerings which are also better supported by institutions, while also becoming more connected to fiat through select coins listing there (which has been and is happening). Time will tell if leaner trader pricing for distributed exchanges starting only with cryptocurrency will attract asset classes to list for the global retail crowd, but it seems the prudent move by the mature financial elite will be to keep the house lights on and try to tame their invited guests, even if fractional reserve backing gives the trading floor more the air it dislikes about Bitcoin than it does what it likes about Gold.
Because the movement of Bitcoin is neatly telegraphed to most of the big altcoins, almost one-for-one in many cased, though with some reversals likely depending on halvings, or various MA interval crossings and other such cycles, the diagram here presents a scenario in which DOGE/BTC and BTC are contained along the timeline. The proposed floor here is $4600, a value taken from the market spike April 1-3, one intended to be reflective of the value retained as much as by the tier's role as support now having been then a potential bearpin. All things being equal, DOGE, like its altcoin cousins, will likely spike when it has both had the chance to accumulate after a fall, and when Bitcoin takes a corrective turn.
May 15-18 seems like a good breakout, but because the channel here is seen as diverging, unless the pressure by Bulls is let go, there may be no resistance to Bitcoin's rise, as all the trading volume gets sucked up into its vortex and the altcoins and tokens with intrinsic value get shut out. If there is context here for Binance's decision to restrict withdrawals and deposits for a week following its reputed $40M plus hack, then maybe the DOGE game is being told to play itself. Is that as doubtful as it sounds?
2020 Market Crash and Recession - #TNX #US03MY Yield InversionFor the past couple weeks, essentially every media channels were screaming out about TVC:US03MY - TVC:TNX yield inversion. While more scrutiny is desired, we are essentially sitting at the crossroad with heavy down-pressure in our shoulder.
Just took a step back and looked at the big forest winding all the back to the 1980s.
Let's take a look and see what's happened in the past and where we are headed in terms of the yields (long-term vs short-term yields).
So what's the deal? How does this impact the investors and banks?
In a normal occasion, long-term investments require higher yields as it requires you to take risk for longer period of time.
When yield inversion occurs it wipes out the risk premium for the long-term investments. For you as an investor, you have no reason to take extra risk and opt-in for short term investments.
For banks that borrow short-term and lend long-term, their profit margins become slim, so they cut short-term bonds, pushing up yields even further. Central banks cut M2 supply, recession begins.
M2 supply as you many of you know already is a leading indicator of the markets, especially equity markets. When there is no GDP growth, there is no EQ growth, which will negatively impact the market overall. Including, but not limited to TVC:RUT , SP:SPX / AMEX:SPY , DJ:DJI . This will also spell cascade effects in markets rest of the world.
History doesn't have to repeat itself but these key indicators are not negligible either.
Amazon trend until yield curve inversionAmazon could stay in the uptrend (green line) until yield curve inversion (10yr - 2yr Treasuries spread becomes negative) and then crash (red line).
Current news about yield curve inversion of 5yr - 3yr Treasuries is premature. That indicator was 4 years early in 1964, 3 years early in 2005, and usually was 2 years early.