Dx looking for short term correctionDx is now at major support with confluence of fib level and TL. will we see short term correction and resume some dollar strength. Watch other markets such as eur, chf, jpy and gbp for USD strength.
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EURUSD Bulls Finally Did It. Break 1.0635 Area.The EURUSD bulls finally did it. After several failed attempts to breach the 1.0635 area, Friday’s late session surge put the single currency well above the mark.
Yes, there was some profit taking into the close, but that isn’t abnormal especially given Friday’s 130 pip rally. At the end of the day, the pair still managed a close above the 1.0635 handle, which turns our attention higher this week.
With that said, there was a minor resistance level that came into play just before the weekend. The 1.0680 area has acted as a pivot of sorts since January 26th. It also played a role in capping the January 12th advance.
The tight range between 1.0635 and 1.0680 makes playing Friday’s break more difficult. Sure, you could buy on a retest of 1.0635 as new support, but a target of just 45 pips isn’t very appealing.
As such, I’ll stand aside for now and see what comes of last week’s breakout. The close above 1.0635 leaves me cautiously bullish for now, but I need to see more from buyers before I’m willing to consider an entry.
This Wednesday is the highly anticipated Fed rate decision and statement. The events kick off at 2 pm EST and are sure to stir things up for the U.S. dollar, so tread carefully if you plan to take on USD exposure. Also, Draghi speaks on Monday at 9:30 am EST.
Check the upside technical analysis.
Performed by analytical expert: Urban Stamcar
USDJPY Teeters on 115.10 Following NFP - Bearish Pin Bar However, with the 115.10 handle still intact, I decided to remain on the sideline. I also didn’t want to enter in front of yesterday's non-farm payroll report.
The 115.10 area has served as a pivot since January 6th. It’s also the 50% retracement from the December 2016 high to the current 2017 low.
So far, the reaction from yesterday’s events is mixed, and the jury is still out. The moments following the NFP report and average hourly earnings, market participants seemed to favor the U.S. dollar. But those gains were short-lived.
As is the case with any high-impact event such as NFP, momentum can shift in a matter of minutes. This is one reason I urge caution to those who like to trade market-moving events like these. In fact, the best course of action is to take no action until the dust settles.
Bearish pin bar from the zone 115.10, that was forming yesterday, can may pust a price lower to test a trend line at price 114.20.
Check the upside technical analysis.
Performed by analytical expert: Urban Stamcar
AUDJPY Breaks From Rising Wedge, Targets 85.35Just two sessions ago the AUDUSD carved out a bearish pin bar from support turned resistance. The trade has played out in textbook fashion so far, and now it seems the AUDJPY is following in its footsteps with some bearish price action of its own.
The rising wedge that extends from the December 2016 low broke down yesterday. These patterns often signal exhaustion and at least a correction of the current trend.
However, yesterday’s close at 86.08 leaves me watching for a selling opportunity on a retest of the area as new resistance. As mentioned last month, key support from here comes in at 85.35 followed by 83.73.
The upcoming CPI and PPI figures out of China at 8:30 pm EST could cause a stir. So you may want to keep these two events in mind if looking for an entry during the Tokyo session.
Check the upside technical analysis.
Performed by analytical expert: Urban Stamcar
USDCHF FALSE CHANNEL BREAK OUT1)Price failed to break and close above resistance zone @ 0.99040
+ triple top formed @ 0.99500 zone
2) False Break and retest of descending price channel
3) Daily support broken @ 0.98402 zone
4) Previous Daily candle closed as an bearish engulfing
5) MA's spiralling to the downside
adding confluence to bearish momentum
6) A break of the trend line will warrant shorts
7) Target 1 @ 0.95039 zone = weekly support giving extra confluence
GBPNZD CONTINUATION OF DOWNTREND?1) Double top formed @ Daily resistance @ 109523 zone
2) Downside shifts in MA's
3) Previous/ most recent daily candle closed below resistance level
@ 1.84228 zone, if zone holds + next daily candle close below zone
will warrant further shorts.
4) Target 1 @ 1.80041
5) Target 2 @ 1.76786 = Daily support zone giving extra confluence
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VHC Long, high risk high reward tradeThis is a risky play, predicated on a bounce play off previous support. This is also reversion of the mean pertaining to the large selloff two days ago.
Will the Australian central bank cut rates?Bolstered by a rally in commodities, improved manufacturing data and employment levels in Australia, the economy is doing very well. In fact, it has been the best performing economy among developed nations outside Europe.
However, the appreciating AUD is undermining this strong economic performance, dragging the country down and hampering growth. It is in the Australian central bank's best interest to cut interest rates to allow the AUD to depreciate and the economy to grow with the strength it should be.
As well as this, the inflation levels in Australia are still below the 2-3% target at 1.7%, giving room for a rate cut.
I think that further appreciation of the AUD will cause central bankers to realise its unsustainability - for want of a better word - in undermining economic growth, and will go forward with a rate cut. Thus, if the AUD reaches the region indicated by a box on my diagram, I will consider shorting AUD, with a target price somewhere in the low 70 cents region.
NZD/USD WEEKLY OUTLOOKNZD/USD Weekly perspective. Simple Weekly fib D2 extension confluent with resistance. Also if you check are NZD/USD daily post we also have another fib targeting the same resistance therefore this is are next target for NZD/USD Only looking to long this pair waiting for the perfect opportunity patience pays!
WYNN Long PlaySimply wynn has beated earnings previously after having earnings misses consecutively. We have the stock picking up momentum and buying action in anticipation for the next earnings call in February. Traders have overall good sentiment in the company and are looking to get long early. Im long at C if we rally before earnings or if we have good earnings i will be long into D if im late with the trade
Ascending triangle pattern USD/CAD, 5 I noticed this ascending triangle and thought it would be a great opportunity for an easy 25 pips or so. I believe the market will break out above the resistance line and ascend toward the previous structure high that falls around the 1.618 extension of the first leg of the triangle. i have place my buy in just above the resistance level, my limit at the 1.618 extension and my stop at previous structure low because if it breaks the previous structure low, the pattern is a bust. Please Like comment and follow. Good Trading !
Will There Be Continuation ??This is a WEEKLY chart of FB. You may need to look at the daily chart to see some of the things I am talking about.
If you are a bear, you probably pondered this question all weekend. Last week was not such a great week for Facebook. And Friday was not a good day for Facebook. You had to be wondering if there would be continuation to the downside as this week began.
FB reached a high of $86.07 on 3/24. Since then, the highs have been lower and lower. Even today, after a good day for FB longs, there isn't a clear sign that FB is headed for new highs. In fact, at this moment in time, FB is still under the downtrend line that starts on 3/24 and touches the tops of the candles from 4/13, 4/14, 4/15. The top of today's candle also touches that downtrend line. Remember, the trend hasn't changed until FB closes above the downtrend line. Even then, we like to see follow through. Also called continuation.
If you were short on Friday, you had to be nervous when FB gaped up this morning. At some point you had to get out of the way. When? That depends on the trading plan you had when you went short. Maybe you said, "if FB gets above Friday's high then I will get out". Or maybe you said, "If I lose $100 I am out of here!". Whatever your plan was I hope you stuck with it. Maybe you said, "I will stay with this FB short as long as it remains below the downtrend line from 3/23". If that was your plan then you are still long. You may be nervous. But you are still long.
If you came into today noticing that FB gaped up, You could have waited 15 minutes (or less), went long and set your stop at the 15 minute low of $81.24. If this was your plan you are still long. Why? Because FB never got that low again all through the day.
If you came into today thinking FB would rally into earnings and you wanted to be long. You could have used the 80.75 ish level as your stop. If this was your plan you are still long. Resistance can (and often does) become Support. In this case, it looks like it has.
So what now?? Will there be continuation?? You know what I like to say... Your guess is as good as mine. If you asked most shorts on Friday they would have been pretty comfortable with their chances for continuation to the downside. If you talk to most longs today they are probably pretty comfortable with their chances for continuation tomorrow. We will just have to wait to see what happens.
A better question may be, "What should I do from here?". Honestly, only you can make that decision. But if you use the Daily downtrend line as a guide you may have an advantage over those who don't. Notice I said "may" have an advantage. All bets are off when it comes to earnings season. Sometimes you can get a clue to the direction of the stock and sometimes you wake up to a nasty surprise.
It is always extremely risky to own stock when earnings are released. Many experienced traders use options to participate in the potential movement or protect gains around earnings. Some people just sell a majority of their shares before the earnings come out and then buy back the next day or so. It is all about limiting your risk.