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Bitcoin 2024 (Scenario 1)Expect the unexpected this year. As you know, I flipped bearish in December. Check out the TA below. It's taken a while to rollover, but Bitcoin has failed to break the 0.75 Fib Fan. Just like in 2019, week after week, it closed right under it, and now it's finally making a move down. There are two scenarios that I put together that have probable outcomes. Scenario 1: This idea is basically as you see in the main chart above, a deep correction to 30k that comes down to the 0.618 Fan Fib. We have this diagonal macro support that has three macro cycle low hits. I hate diagonal supports; for me, they never hold up, but we will see with this one. If we go back in history and see how 2015 played out with Fib Fans, we see a similar pattern with the 0.75 Fib Fan, a rejection, and a move down to the 0.618. The bottom for this cycle low played out very closely to 2015. The cycle bottom of 2015 and 2022 were a mirror, mind-blowing really. So in 2015 after a rejection of the 0.75 Fib Fan, Bitcoin comes back to retest its base. Our base this cycle is 30k. So why have I marked the timeframes between April and July 2024? Well, there are two time Fib sequences I'm following, one on the LINK/BTC chart, and the other is a macro Bitcoin sequence I have been following for years. You can check it out below. Every time we come to a date, something big happens with Chainlink and Bitcoin. For me, if it continues playing out like 2015, a move to 30k this year is highly likely. Now, Scenario 2 is far more of a crazy outcome, but if I would put my money on it, Scenario 2 happens, not 1. Will publish Scenario 2 later on.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Sporia
5
Bitcoin 2024 (Scenario 2)Bitcoin-2024-Scenario-1 Below Let's talk about the thing nobody wants to talk about. THE CME GAP AT 20k! This CME gap is one of the largest Gaps in history. Coming in at 20300 to 21200, it's a huge Gap. I remember very clearly the herd saying the "GAP AT 18K WILL NEVER GET FILLED." 500 days later, what happened, the damn GAP gets filled. How many times do we need to fade this signal lol. The fact is that every damn GAP this size gets filled at one point. Will this time be different? Are we going to play the "this time will be different" tune again lol. There are a couple of charts that are screaming Black Swan. ETH Giant rising wedge pattern in ETH. A break of this wedge would be a massive move down! XRP XRP is repeating the same pattern it formed from 2014-2017. What happened at the end of the triangle? A massive shakeout! USDT dominance Chart Guys look at the channel. Do we need to question it? Even now at the 48k top, there was not a single candle close under the channel. I've been following it with my group week by week and nothing. The channel is still strong. It is a fact that no BIG bull market or rally has started from the bottom of this channel, and until the dominance is back up to where this green circle is, the chances are this bull market will not start. So how do we get the dominance up there and still hit 70k by December 2024? By using a black swan, that's how. My call is something big happens this year, another scare, Bank, War, Virus, anything to drive mass fear. I can see it now, a crazy wick down to close the CME gap but weekly close above this macro support. If this plays out, then XRP plays out its shakeout, ETH breaks its rising wedge, and USDT dominance goes back up to the top of the channel. It all fits. If Bitcoin is at 20k and the USDT dominance is at the top of the channel, that's when I can say for sure that the bull market has started. Until then, I have doubt. We can't even say with 100% certainty that the Bitcoin double bottom is even in! Every cycle we retest and make a double macro bottom before the bull market starts, but this time it's not been so clear. Can we say that June and Nov of 2022 were the double bottom of this cycle with 100% certainty? I don't think so. This is something I have been trying to figure out for months: IS THE DOUBLE BOTTOM IN OR NOT? How can we say that with a 20k CME GAP that if it would get filled, it would then form a macro double bottom on the Bitcoin chart. This is my view on scenario 2. I would not have any longs open or collateral loans and have cash to buy if this scenario happens. This is without a doubt the most dangerous unpredictable period of the Bitcoin cycle. If nothing has happened by September, we are in the clear. Until then, protect yourself from risk. My bet is Scenario 2 unfolds.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Sporia
EURUSD 4h4h - an incredibly interesting situation has formed on the 4-hour chart. Structurally, we are in a long context, and with the overlay of all possible liquidity formed below us, we continue the upward movement. However, at the same time, there is an emerging order flow in the short direction against us. In such moments, it is crucial to wait for the price to firmly establish itself in one direction for a sensible continuation of work. Otherwise, there is a high probability of losing money.
by yes_pls_max
Top Is Likely In , I'm Out.Today, I'm going to present to you my thesis on why this rally is over and why the Bitcoin top is in for now, marking the weekly lower high that everyone will be setting as resistance in the coming months. This rally has reminded me a lot of 2019 in many ways; it has played out the same, especially with Chainlink. I have been following a bar pattern fractal from 2019 that played out almost 1:1 for 358 days. As you can see, LINK should have had a blowoff top by now, or has it? Something that I have learned a lot in this space is that blowoff tops are really anticlimactic. Prices go up, pull back, we all think it's just a small pullback, and then before you know it, it's a full-blown correction. When you look back, you realize, "Damn, that was the top." The main chart you see above is one of many reasons why I think the top is highly likely. In 2019, we hit the 0.75 Fan Fib and topped out. So far, at this moment, it's finding resistance at this Fan Fib. I have documented on my channel how the 2015 cycle macro structure is a lot like this cycle's structure, especially the cycle low. What happened in 2015 with Fib levels and Gann Fann. Looking into it, we can see that Bitcoin topped out between the 0.5-0.618 Fib and around the 2/1 Gann Fann. If you take a look at today's price action, you can see that we are in exactly the same spot as we were in 2015 before a big correction. A pre-halving 50% correction is always in the books. A 55% correction to the 20k CME gap is very possible, no doubt, within the first 4 months of the year. This would be normal for a Bitcoin cycle. The Mayer Multiple band 1.4 has predicted tops in Bitcoin for 2 years its been a very big resistance. Finally we come to the chart I personally trust the most , the one chart and channel that has put me ahead of the curve most of the time and that is the USDT dominance chart. You can clearly see that when the price comes to the bottom of the channel, we get a top in the market. It has predicted all the tops in the past few years. I cannot ignore this signal. Not only that, but the greed indicator fired off like the April top 2021. It's undeniable that the channel is strong and unbreakable. Maybe this time it's different? Maybe this time it breaks down, and we go to an all-time high. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm not taking the risk. I'm out.
BITMEX:XBTUSD.PShort
by Sporia
35
Bitcoin 2023 nding WaysAs of now, Bitcoin is priced at $42,815, accompanied by a 24-hour trading volume of $24 billion. Its market capitalization stands at $843 billion, commanding 54% of the market share. In the past 24 hours, BTC has encountered a 0.96% decrease in price. With a circulating supply of 19.46 million BTC out of a maximum possible supply of 21 million BTC. Bitcoin's recent attempt to breach the $44,000 resistance faced selling pressure, triggering a decline in its value. Currently, resistance is noted at $44,982, while support for BTC/USD is established at $41,784. The analysis for December 26 indicates that bears have initiated a robust selling pressure, eroding buyer confidence around the $44,000 mark. Consequently, BTC is experiencing a significant decline, setting the stage for a downward correction. Examining the 1-day chart reveals a diminishing buying demand for Bitcoin as it grapples with this decline in value. Bio for more..................
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by IPatrice
Chainlink Distribution Fractal (Warning) Fractal of Doom It seems that we have formed a distribution topping fractal here in Chainlink , the fractal of doom is back! Where did i get this fractal from? well its from the 2018 Bitcoin bear market. This fractal from 2018 all of sudden formed at Bitcoin all time high in 2021. And now its back! it seemed to have formed here on Chainlink! Looks very similar! , that higher high to bait everyone in before it rolls over! My view on why the top is in below. When I first discovered it January 2022
COINBASE:LINKUSDShort
by Sporia
21
Cryptographic Truth Final Run (Chainlink) (Re-Upload)The fractal continues to play out like the last Chainlink Cycle. I started to see a bump and run pattern forming, so I went back to 2019 where we are now in the fractal, and we find the same pattern: a textbook bump and run pattern. There is now a very high chance that we will reverse from this point; we just completed the throwback with a double bottom candle pattern. My position is still open from 14.6 and being added to the long position under 14. At the moment, LINK is consolidating under the 1/1 Gann Fan, as you can see below. According to the fractal, we don't get the real break till the 1st of December; it might look something like this. The condition for this theory on the fractal playing out being invalidated is if Chainlink loses this lower high structure and breaks this red support trendline.
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COINBASE:LINKUSDLong
by Sporia
89