Investing
EURUSDHello everyone, as I mentioned this morning, the plan from Sunday remained relevant, and the primary target was achieved. I considered long positions on the euro this morning, but due to two stop hunts against us and the initiation of short orders, I refrained from opening any positions.
The targets for the day have been met. To make any further decisions, I need more information. See you tomorrow.
EURUSD 1Dthe daily timeframe is in a short context. Currently, we are in a corrective movement with the aim of overlapping the FVG. The lack of activity below the fractal compression (marked on the chart) inspires confidence. The target is 1.06. The scenario will be invalidated if the price closes above 1.088.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 24, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The S&P 500 reached our projected Outer Index Rally at 5342 and then quickly retraced as part of the primary reignited squeeze move path. It is unlikely that it will drop to the primary down target Mean Support at 5221. However, it may continue to advance towards the completed Outer Index Rally at 5342, the Inner Index Rally at 5408, and the next Outer Index Rally at 5450. The secondary reignited squeeze triggering points are at specified destination pinpoints.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 24, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Eurodollar bounced off last week's established Mean Resistance level of 1.089 and reached our specified lower target of the Mean Support level of 1.082. The likelihood of revisiting the Mean Resistance level of 1.089 and reaching the Inner Currency Rally level of 1.091 is slim. On the downside, the currency is prone to hit the Mean Support level of 1.081 and target a well-established price level of 1.075.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 24, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin has broken through our Mean Resistance at 66900, completed our Inner Coin Rally at 69800, and then pulled back to the trading zone. The target for an upward movement is now set at the newly established Mean Resistance at 71500 and the aged Key Resistance at 73200. On the downside, we are looking at the newly established Mean Support at 67100 and a possible extension to Mean Support at 65000.
Ethereum (ETH): Strategic Entries and Potential DropsFor Ethereum, we're observing a chart pattern that has developed a weak divergence, and we believe it is now correcting wo the end of Wave 4 of Wave (3). We plan to place multiple entries; our first entry was at the upper range of the Wave 4 target area around $3200. However, the price has continued to decline. We are now looking to DCA and make a second entry at $2600, with a final entry in our worst-case scenario at $2277. We suspect there might be further downside potential, but the extent is uncertain, and we intend to buy additional spots. Those already in from the first entry can choose to hold or buy more—this is on yourself. Given the expected market weakness, there could be opportunities to establish substantial long-term spot positions.
Upon examining the annual VWAP, we're observing a scenario where the 2021 VAH is acting as a current resistance level. We briefly surpassed this level but quickly fell below it again. We believe there could be good entry opportunities in the area between the 2021 VWAP and the 2022 VAH, which closely align around $2,500 to $2,450. Below this, the next significant level could be the 2023 VAH around $2,000, indicating a substantial gap in the middle. This will be elaborated further in subsequent sections of our analysis.
However, this setup on the larger chart presents a probable scenario, yet we're also considering managing our positions above this range as shown above. The 61,8% Fibonacci retracement is still the second entry target for us.
12H
On the quarterly VWAP, we observe that the VWAP from Q4 2021 acted as resistance at exactly $4,100. Since then, we've experienced a downward trend and identified several levels acting as resistance or support. Currently, we're situated right at the 2022 Q1VWAP and the 2021 Q3VWAP, which could provide enough support to push us above the $3,000 mark. Ideally, surpassing the $3,200 mark would be beneficial, but we perceive this as challenging since the current quarter's VWAP is likely to act as resistance around $3,200. We think it's possible we might revisit the levels of the 2021 Q2VWAP to the 2024 Q1VAL, ranging between $2,670 and $2,426. While we don't anticipate falling much below these levels, it's not outside the realm of possibility. These remain our critical levels for now.
4H
Considering the monthly VWAP, there's a scenario where we might see an upward push toward the Previous Monthly VAL, given that the February VWAP has acted as support three times already. This aligns with the desire to see Ethereum exceed $3,200, which would surpass both the February VWAP high and the Previous Monthly VWAP. Achieving and maintaining a position above this level is crucial for a sustained upward move.
If we fail to reclaim and hold this level, it's plausible that Ethereum could revisit lower levels, potentially down to the February VAL around $2,500. Holding above the February VWAP is vital; otherwise, we might see a retracement to these lower support levels.
Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA): Bullish Divergence SignalsMarathon Digital Holdings is heavily influenced by developments in the cryptocurrency market. Despite this dependency, significant indicators on the RSI chart show repeated divergences. These divergences have previously resulted in substantial price movements and could potentially do so again. Currently, we have identified a bullish divergence on the daily chart, with the stock holding above the High-Volume-Node (HVN) Edge within a trend channel. These correlations suggest there could be enough momentum for the stock to retest the $34 level, which we consider a minimum target.
Marathon's stock is known for its rapid movements, meaning it can quickly move up or down. Should the stock move upwards, it could swiftly surpass the $34 mark. However, we must also consider the presence of equal lows on the chart. These equal lows are often a point of concern as they indicate significant liquidity below them, which the market tends to target. Therefore, it is possible that we might see a dip to collect this liquidity in the coming days, weeks, or even months, potentially bringing the price back to the trendline.
In the worst-case scenario, the stock might drop to the High-Volume-Node Point of Control at $9.67 before resuming its upward trajectory. Despite this risk, we believe that Marathon has substantial upside potential in the coming weeks. The confluence of bullish signals and strong support levels suggests that the stock could see significant gains if the bullish divergence plays out as expected.
BTC Long Term ViewIt feels like a very long time since we saw BTCUSD down at the 57k support level.
Now with the BTCUSD likely to continue ranging between 57k and 74k, buying at value seems to be the most appropriate approach.
Anticipation is that it will be a matter of time before the price eventually breaks out of the range to reach 92k (which coincides with the 100% Fibonacci extension level).
$LUNCUSDT - goal is move higherPropose 2 scenarios for BYBIT:LUNCUSDT - first moving up during the 6 months, second is the nearest correction and long after with the good potential in a year.
Does not constitute a recommendation.
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How much strength does it take to fill a gap?While I believe $87.50 is the point of contention for price action in the days to come, it’s difficult to say whether SBUX will be either below $70.00 or well above $100.00 by the end of Q4 2024. Either way a set up does present itself. The consumer is undergoing discretionary spending and currently this stock is down 15.43% year to date. When sentiment shifts, I see no reason as to why this asset couldn't be a decent performer in one's portfolio. The trading game plan is as follows.
1.) Short entry at 83.05 from the 100 4HR EMA
2.) SL set at 88.20
3.) TP 1 78.69
4.) TP 2 74.50
5.) TP 3 72.00
Why longer term charts are importantI took a look at the weekly gold/silver ratio and noticed a few significant patterns. For example, there was a notable acceleration downward following the break of a 3-year uptrend a couple of weeks ago. Additionally, there is support at the 74.65/63 level, which has been in place since January 2022.
This observation reminded me of the importance of examining long-term charts, regardless of your trading time frame. Longer-term charts provide essential context and clarity that short-term charts often lack.
Why everyone should be looking at longer term charts:
1. Identifying Trends
Long-term charts help in identifying significant trends that might not be visible in short-term data.
2. Smoothing Out Volatility
Short-term data is often noisy, with frequent fluctuations that can obscure the underlying pattern. Long-term charts smooth out this volatility, providing a clearer picture of the fundamental movement and reducing the influence of random, short-term events.
3. Contextualizing Current Movements
Long-term charts place current price or economic movements in a broader context. This helps investors and analysts understand whether a recent change is part of a larger trend or not.
4. Historical Comparisons
These charts allow for comparisons with past periods, making it possible to identify cycles, recurring patterns, and historical precedents. This historical perspective can be invaluable for forecasting future movements and making informed predictions.
5. Assessing Risk and Reward
By examining long-term performance, investors can better assess the potential risks and rewards of an investment. Understanding how an asset has performed over various market cycles helps in evaluating its stability and growth potential.
6. Avoiding Emotional Bias
Short-term market movements can evoke strong emotional responses, leading to impulsive decisions. Long-term charts provide a more detached view, helping investors stay focused on long-term objectives and avoid reacting to short-term market noise.
Conclusion
In summary, long-term charts offer a comprehensive view that is critical for understanding trends, reducing noise, contextualizing current events, making historical comparisons, assessing risk, avoiding emotional decisions, developing strategies, and analysing economic cycles. They are an indispensable tool for anyone involved in financial markets or economic analysis, providing the clarity and perspective necessary for informed decision-making.
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BLOCK (SQ): Major Buy Zones Identified Amid Potential Upswing!BLOCK (formerly Square) has experienced a significant sell-off since its all-time high of $290 in July 2021, dropping to a low of $37. This marked the completion of Wave 2 in its price cycle. Currently, we are observing two critical zones:
Must-Buy Zone : Between $33 and $51. Historically, the price has spent minimal but crucial time in this range, indicating strong market movement always follows a dip into this zone.
Okay-Buy Zone : Between $51 and $87. This broader range also saw significant accumulation periods, specifically from May 2018 to March 2020, and again from May 2022 to the present.
BLOCK's price dipped to the Must-Buy Zone recently but quickly reclaimed higher levels, suggesting a potential upswing. Additionally, a clear bullish divergence on the RSI (3-day chart) indicates a possible new momentum phase.
Potential Scenarios:
Retest and Reclaim : On the 12-hour chart, a retest of the high-volume nodes and Points of Control (POC) on the daily and 3-day charts might occur. If BLOCK retests these levels successfully, it could signify a sustained upward movement.
Dip and Buy Opportunity : Should the price fall below these POCs, another dip into the Must-Buy Zone could present an excellent long-term buying opportunity, especially if the RSI indicates oversold conditions aligning with these price points.
Given the bullish divergence on the RSI and historical support levels, there is a strong case for a potential upward movement. However, the risk of a further dip remains, making it crucial to monitor these levels closely for a strategic entry point.
SPY (S&P500 ETF) - Weekly - Potential Resistance Price TestSPY (S&P500 ETF) has been in an uptrend since 2023 and is approaching its all-time-high price resistance again.
$523.07 is the current all-time-high price resistance.
$497.83 is the current support level price, and also the 0.236 fibonacci level.
Bullish Scenario: If SPY price breaks out above $523.07, the next resistance price targets could be: $537, $550, $563, $575.
Bearish Scenario: If SPY price reversse back down, a potential lower-low in the price could be set over time. Support price levels could be: $508, $497, $489, $476, $466.
Note: corporate earnings, FOMC interest rate changes, government legislation, breaking news, and global events could override technical chart patterns.
Date created: 05/10/2024
SAIL - 50-70% ROI Potential with an RR of 1:3 - MidTermPotential1) Stock is in uptrend in Monthly , weekly.
2) The trendline that connects highs of 2007,2010,2021,2024 are about to be broken on the upside - Price confirmation indicates the same.
3) Weekly Price shows Morning star reversal.
Note : This stock has not participated in the bull rally of 2023.
Entry - Anywhere between 122-135. I see aggressive entries can be planned at 135.
Targets - 151, 170, 190-200, 260
STOP LOSS - Would consider exit only if monthly closes below 108.
EURUSDGood morning, the local context currently looks bullish. We have two confirmations of market structure. Below, there is a liquidity cluster, and after it is taken out, the optimal intraday target is the previous week's high (PWH). The scenario will be invalidated if an hourly candle closes below 1.08715. In case of changes, I plan to update the idea.
$TONUSDT either correction or fifth waveIn my point of view, we will be able to see two ways of the further development of events:
1. BYBIT:TONUSDT will stop recent moving and will turn around directly to the correction related to the previous long jumps. This scenario look like more probable, since regarding to the indicators, this pair seems overbought.
2. In accordance with the waves theory, BYBIT:TONUSDT will close the 3rd wave via short correction moving and will open a raising movement to the 5th wave (1W chart).
Expecting and prefer to see correction to 3.5-4 in the closest time.
Does not constitute a recommendation.
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