Build your crypto shortsWhat will happen to crypto in the near future?
DXY looks like it will go up in the short term, VIX is spiking up again.
This is could be an indication for much lower prices.
Investing
Bitcoin Down 14% from Halving Event: What Happens from HereThree posts ago, we discussed the intricate relationship between Bitcoin’s halving events and broader economic conditions. The recent market developments have indeed proven this connection, as Bitcoin has experienced a significant 14% drop since the halving event on April 20th 2024.
Context of the Recent Market Crash
Several factors have contributed to Bitcoin's recent decline:
1. Macro-Economic Conditions : The Bank of Japan's rate hike on July 31, 2024, significantly impacted global markets. This move made borrowing more expensive, disrupting the carry trade involving the yen and causing a ripple effect across various asset classes, including cryptocurrencies.
2. Market Sentiment and Sell-offs : The anticipation of Mt. Gox creditor repayments, releasing around $8 billion worth of Bitcoin into the market, created fear among investors, prompting a sell-off that drove prices down to as low as $53,600.
3. Broader Equity Market Decline : Global equity markets have also been under pressure, with major indices experiencing significant losses. This broader market downturn has influenced Bitcoin's price, as investors often sell off riskier assets during periods of economic uncertainty
It's Not All Doom and Gloom
Over the long term, Bitcoin has always shown resilience and growth, particularly in the years following a halving event. Historically, Bitcoin's price tends to experience significant increases 6-12 months after each halving. This pattern has been consistent across the previous three halving events:
2012 Halving: Bitcoin surged from around $12 to over $1,000 within a year.
2016 Halving: Bitcoin climbed from approximately $650 to nearly $20,000 within 18 months.
2020 Halving: Bitcoin soared from $8,000 to over $60,000 in the following year.
These historical trends indicate that despite short-term volatility and market downturns, Bitcoin has a strong track record of long-term growth. This resilience is driven by the fundamental principle of reduced supply through halvings, which creates scarcity and can drive demand.
Position Update from Our Trend Model
The Model had gone cash one day prior to the sell-off, resulting in a small loss of 6% from the long entry price back in July, the model was however able to avoid what was to come after that, which was a 20% drawdown within 72 hours. The model remains bearish for the medium term and we'll update in another post when the time comes.
As always, it is crucial to conduct thorough research and consider both macroeconomic factors and market sentiment when making investment decisions. Stay tuned for more updates and insights as we continue to monitor the evolving market conditions and their impact on primarily crypto 🚀.
Coca-Cola (KO): Strength in Uncertain TimesAfter not taking a look at Coca-Cola for quite a while, it's definitely worth analyzing. As one of the biggest assets in the stock market, Coca-Cola seems to have the most resistance with a relatively low risk/return profile, making it very interesting in times of uncertainty. A shift from risk-on assets to risk-off assets could happen easily. Just by looking at the latest rise, we can see that while there was a big sell-off in all stocks, NYSE:KO only fell by about 1.2%. This showcases the strength I am talking about.
After finishing Waves 1 and 2, we got the structure shift for a possible bullish rise. Because the intra-waves aren't very clear on NYSE:KO , we are looking at it from mostly the market structure perspective. Two points are highly interesting: the 3D POC just above the 3D Demand at around $60 and the Weekly Demand at $54.
We are looking for a possible long bid on Coca-Cola but will wait for the opportunity to come. When it does, we will share it with you, of course. 🤝
EURUSD 1WOn the weekly timeframe, there have been no significant updates. After the context changed to bullish at the beginning of July, we experienced a corrective move aimed at filling the FVG below. On Friday, the price was able to recover. The targets remain the same as I marked on the chart.
Nikkei 225 Suffers Worst Decline Since 1987 Amid U.S. Economic CThe Nikkei 225 index in Japan plunged by 12.4%, marking its worst day since the 1987 "Black Monday" crash. The index closed at 31,458.42, shedding 4,451.28 points. The sell-off was triggered by concerns about the U.S. economy and followed a 5.8% drop on Friday. Major companies like Toyota, Honda, and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group saw significant declines. The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike and a stronger yen have further pressured the market. Investors now focus on upcoming trade data from China and Taiwan, and central bank decisions from Australia and India.
BTC will probably try to pick up liquidity from both sidesThe chart may be a bit unclear, but I will try to explain what it means: when we first determine the fibonacci after the impulse with $74k, we can see the support exactly at fibonacci 1.21. That gives us the right to look at this as an ABC correction.
Below are the FVG of the bit zones :
The monthly that has been tested several times plus the monthly candle did not close inside it which is very positive
In the last correction towards 53k weekly fvg showed strong support
Gap: Which is formed after this impulse shows that fibonacci 0.61 coincides together with that..
For now, everything is fine.. we are in the middle of the range, 60k and lower to watch for a potential long.
Below 58k and the closing of larger time frames, the saint structure changes
GAIL: This is why People lose moneyThis is one important case study as to why investors lose money in the stock market.
Now if you look at the chart, Here is what you see:
1. 32 Months of pure range-bound consolidation
2. Clearly defined support and resistance zones
3. Five months of consolidation at the resistance zone
4. A beautiful high-volume breakout followed by a retest.
5. This is one textbook setup for a long trade
So, We should go long here, right?
If I zoom out of the chart, Here is what you will see.
- We have a strong resistance zone sitting just above the breakout level.
- The price took a strong rejection from the exact resistance zone.
Also, Observe the volatile consolidation zone that lasted almost 2 Years. That volatile zone may not be passed through in one instant.
What we investors do is draw conclusions based on partial data and predict the price action that is yet to come. What we fail to do is observe the previous price action in its entirety.
Does that mean that GAIL will not rise in value, Absolutely not. It just means that the uncertainty it has on the charts for a mere 10% gain ( breakout to ATH Distance) is super high.
The market is full of opportunities. Why invest in something that already has a foreseeable red flag?
If you liked the read, Would you give us a boost and a follow for our efforts?
Have Requests, Questions, or Suggestions? Let us know in the comments below.👇
⚠️Disclaimer: We are not registered advisors. The views expressed here are merely personal opinions. Irrespective of the language used, Nothing mentioned here should be considered as advice or recommendation. Please consult with your financial advisors before making any investment decisions. Like everybody else, we too can be wrong at times ✌🏻
Deepak Nitrite: 18 months of sadness 😞This Analysis was requested by @anerishah269
The chart should tell you everything you need to know about NSE:DEEPAKNTR :
However, Below are some 'good to know' pointers:
- The Price action is completely sideways in nature with clearly marked support and resistance zones
- The price has been consolidating for over 18 months now
- Owing to the sideways nature, the breakout of the trendline did not have a huge impact on the price momentum. The price immediately took a rejection from the resistance zone and gunned for a retest.
- Bearish crossover of MACD on a weekly TF is a negative
- The PE ratio has worsened
- The Psy. levels of 2000 and 2500 are at play
- We can expect some good momentum once either of the zones is broken. Until then, it's hold the fight and sit tight situation for us.
What should we analyze next?
Have Requests, Questions, or Suggestions? DM us or comment below.👇
⚠️Disclaimer: We are not registered advisors. The views expressed here are merely personal opinions. Irrespective of the language used, Nothing mentioned here should be considered as advice or recommendation. Please consult with your financial advisors before making any investment decisions. Like everybody else, we too can be wrong at times ✌🏻
Prestige- LONG TERM ACCUMULATION - EDUCATION PURPOSE #Prestige This analysis focuses on the long-term accumulation strategy for Prestige, emphasizing key support levels that are crucial for making informed trading decisions. This strategy is designed for educational purposes and aims to help traders understand the importance of support levels in the context of long-term investments.
Risk Management: Establishing support levels assists in managing risk by setting predefined points for making buying decisions, thereby limiting potential losses.
This analysis is intended to provide educational value and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Aug 2, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The S&P 500 Index (Spooz) displayed notable volatility during the current week's trading session, departing from recent trends. As an analysis of the Weekly Chart for July 26 reveals the index reached the projected Mean Support level of 5402 before surging to the designated target, Mean Res 5567. Upon achieving this target, the Spooz dropped to our selected Inner Index Dip 5345 target like a bad habit. The prevailing price action suggests a sustained uptrend toward the Mean Res 5449 and a possible extension to the Mean Res 5525 in the upcoming week's trading sessions. It is worth noting that these attained targets are likely to exert downward pressure.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Aug 2, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In the most recent trading session, the Eurodollar displayed its ability to recover from the completed Inner Currency Dip of 1.082 and Mean Support levels of 1.081 and 1.078. The prevailing analysis indicates a sustained upward trajectory toward a Mean Support level and its associated completed Inner Currency Dip of 1.094. These critical targets may prompt swift downward movements toward a Mean Support of 1.083, potentially extending to target the subsequent Mean Support level of 1.078.
NOTUSDT SHOWING POSITIVE SIGNSHello,
Welcome to the quick update of NOTUSDT. It was dumping since the last 2 days but as of now it has shown some positive signs with continuous green candles in the 4 HR TF.
We can take a position in this with the below details:
Entry: 0.0129 to 0.0132
Target: 0.0157 to 0.0169 in the short term and 0.022 to 0.026 in the long run
STOPLOSS: 0.0122
Until then, stay tuned and trade with caution, ensuring strict STOPLOSSES!!
This is not financial advice, please do your research before investing, as we are not responsible for any of your losses or profits.
Please like, share, and comment on this idea if you liked it.
LDO READY to MOVEHello,
Welcome to the quick update of LDOUSDT. It is showing positive signs after consolidating around 1.49 to 1.58.
We can go long on this with a short-term target of around $ 1.78 to $1.87 and a long-term target of $2.27 and STOPLOSS of 1.48
Until then, stay tuned and trade with caution, ensuring strict STOPLOSSES!!
This is not financial advice, please do your research before investing, as we are not responsible for any of your losses or profits.
Please like, share, and comment on this idea if you liked it.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 26, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the trading session of the current week, the Eurodollar sustained its decline by the Weekly Chart Analysis for the Week of July 19. The prevailing analysis indicates a continued downward trajectory toward a Mean Support of 1.081 and its corresponding Mean Support of 1.078. The anticipated downward movements will result in an initial interim rebound, potentially reaching a Mean Resistance of 1.089.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 26, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The S&P 500 Index, also known as Spooz, demonstrated a significant downward trend, as analysed in the Weekly Chart for July 19. It reached the anticipated Mean Support level at 5449 and Key Support at 5420. There is an expectation of a swift recovery after reaching these levels, propelling the price toward the designated Mean Resistance target at 5567. Nonetheless, the prevailing price action indicates a sustained primary decline toward the Key Sup 5350 and Inner Index Dip of 5345 in the forthcoming week/week's trading sessions. It is acknowledged that these achieved targets will exert pressure for a robust rebound.
A look at M2 Money Stock Out of curiosity I took a look M2 to see the trends over the years and how it compares to COVID and the last few years. I don't have any great revelations to share about what to do, but I thought the chart was interesting. I also did some research and used ChatGPT to help me create a summary about M2. Please note that I cannot guarantee the following text is perfectly accurate, I am not a financial expert or advisor, but it is an interesting overview. Enjoy.
1) Introduction:
Money Stock Measure 2, or M2, is a comprehensive measure of the money supply that includes various types of financial assets held by the public. It encompasses M1 — which consists of the most liquid forms of money like cash and checking deposits — and adds less liquid forms such as savings deposits, time deposits under $100,000, and retail money market mutual funds. This broader measure provides a more complete picture of the available money within an economy than M1 alone.
2) Why M2 Matters to the Economy and the Stock Market:
Monetary Policy Indicator: M2 growth rates can indicate the looseness or tightness of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Rapid growth in M2 may suggest a looser policy with potential implications for lower interest rates, while slower growth could indicate a tightening policy stance.
Economic Health Predictor: Fluctuations in M2 can signal upcoming changes in economic activity. An expanding M2 typically suggests that more money is flowing into the economy, potentially boosting consumer spending and overall economic growth. However, if this expansion leads to inflation without an accompanying increase in real output, it could be detrimental.
Interest Rate Influence: Since M2 impacts interest rates, it indirectly affects the stock market. Lower interest rates from an increased M2 can reduce borrowing costs and stimulate both capital expenditures and consumer spending, which generally supports higher stock prices.
Inflation Expectations: Inflation can erode the purchasing power of money. An inflating M2 can lead investors to adjust their expectations, impacting bond yields and stock valuations.
3) As an investor, monitoring M2 can enhance decision-making in several ways:
Growth Trends: Observing whether M2 is expanding or contracting can provide clues about future economic conditions and monetary policy directions, helping investors anticipate market movements.
Asset Allocation: During periods of M2 expansion (indicative of lower interest rates), investors might favor stocks, particularly in sectors like consumer discretionary that benefit from increased consumer spending. Conversely, a slowdown in M2 growth could be a signal to move towards safer assets like short-term bonds, which are less sensitive to interest rate rises.
Sector Impacts: Different sectors react differently to changes in M2. For example, financials might benefit from higher interest rates, while sectors sensitive to consumer spending could gain from an expansionary M2 environment.
Inflation Hedge: Rapid increases in M2 that might lead to inflation suggest that investors should consider assets that typically perform well during inflationary periods, such as commodities or real estate.
Global Considerations: For those invested internationally, understanding how M2 changes affect global markets and capital flows is crucial, particularly in how developed economies' liquidity influences emerging markets.
4) Conclusion:
M2 is a critical economic indicator that offers valuable insights into future monetary policies, economic health, and market directions. It is not a perfect metric on its own, but by integrating M2 data into broader market analyses and considering its implications on different sectors and asset classes, investors can make more informed decisions, optimizing their portfolios to better navigate the complexities of financial markets.
Insecticides - Poised for a 25% upmove Swing Trade1) The stock is about to break out of a multi year Trend Line, 2017, 2022 in Monthly timeframe.
2) The stock is in up trend in all major time frames.
3) Daily shows a god trigger of a breakout soon indicated through a Volatility contraction Pattern.
For a 3% SL, 25% Targets expected , around 1000 Rs.
My entries - 789
SL - 767 Daily closing Basis
Target Around 1000
Sector : Chemical - Momentum Sector - AGroChemical.
ADANI NOW or LATER For InvestmentIf you haven't checked my ADANIENSOL analysis kindly check it 1st.
If you look at ADANI stocks clearly we can see a massive view as investment.
Now question is for how long ?
From this position you can plan a hold for 2-3 years and it may give you more than something.
Don't let you influenced by short term market scenarios.
Investment for long term MAY give you GOOD return. BUT
Investment for long term from a good location MAY give you MASSIVE return.
CAMPUS: Low Public Shareholding 📉🤦
The shareholding pattern of a company refers to the distribution of its ownership among different categories of investors, including promoters, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII), Domestic Institutional Investors (DII), and the general public.
The ideal shareholding pattern can vary depending on the nature of the company, industry dynamics, and regulatory guidelines. However, A low public shareholding tells a lot about the future of both the company and its shareholders. Below are some good to know pointers:
1. Low Liquidity:
Low public holding can lead to lower trading volumes a.k.a. Low liquidity. It means there are fewer buyers and sellers in the market.
2. Wider Bid-Ask Spreads:
The reduced liquidity could result in wider bid-ask spreads. The bid-ask spread is the difference between the highest price a buyer is willing to pay (bid) and the lowest price a seller is willing to accept (ask). In illiquid markets, bid-ask spreads tend to be wider, making it more expensive to buy or sell shares, and potentially making it difficult to execute trades at desired prices.
3. Lack of Price Discovery:
The market sets the price for every security after discounting it for everything that matters. In illiquid markets, the true market price may be difficult to determine due to a lack of trading activity. This lack of price discovery can make it harder for investors to assess the fair value of the share.
4. Market Manipulation and Market volatility:
Low liquidity markets may be more susceptible to market manipulation, as a small number of investors can have a significant impact on prices. Imagine a particular DII or FII exiting its entire position in an illiquid market. The prices would crash like crazy.
5. Risk of Delisting:
This is a rare case scenario but is still a possibility. PE and VC funds keep an eye on such companies as it is comparatively easier to make such companies private.
When to invest in such companies:
Taking a closer look at CAMPUS's shareholding, we can see that promoters own about 75% of the company, while Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have 7.5%, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) hold 6.5%, and the general public has around 8%. This does show that the promoters, DIIs and FIIs are pretty confident about their investment.
Promoters, FIIs, and DIIs are different from regular individual investors. They invest for the long haul, focusing on the company's overall health rather than just buying and selling shares. Unlike many individual investors, FIIs and DIIs carefully choose to invest in a business for specific reasons. They're patient and willing to wait for their investments to grow over time because they believe in the company's potential.
A retail investor may invest in such a company if:
- He has confidence in the industry the company operates in,
- He trusts that the company's business is solid,
- He has faith in the management's ability to make good decisions, And
- He is willing to be patient for the Company to reach its prime
Else, investing in such a company can be a real Nightmare. Campus stands at an All-Time low. Imagine an investor who invested during its IPO and is still red.
Can you tell us what other companies have low public shareholding?
What should we analyze next?
Have Requests, Questions, or Suggestions? DM us or comment below.👇
⚠️Disclaimer: We are not registered advisors. The views expressed here are merely personal opinions. Irrespective of the language used, Nothing mentioned here should be considered as advice or recommendation. Please consult with your financial advisors before making any investment decisions. Like everybody else, we too can be wrong at times ✌🏻
KNRCON Have Broken All Time High Giving Target of Around 25%NSE:KNRCON
BUSSINESS OVERVIEW
One of the leading companies providing Engineering, Procurement and
Construction (EPC) services.
Major Projects in Roads & Highways – one of the fast-growing sectors
Established presence in Irrigation and Urban Water Infrastructure Management
25+ years of experience of project execution
Successfully executed more than ~8,700 lane km Road Projects
Projects executed across 12 states in India
Portfolio of BOT/HAM Projects
668 lane Kms Projects in the state of Telangana, Karnataka & Bihar
2 Annuity based Projects, 1 Toll based project and 8 HAM based projects
8 HAM based projects with total Bid Project cost of Rs. 96,188 million
Strong EPC Order Book
Total Orderbook as on 31st March 2024 53,048 cr.
₹ 31,980 Mn
Roads Sector
₹ 21,068 Mn
Irrigation and Pipeline Sector
Recently Won Projects
Construction of Access Controlled four laning with paved shoulder from
Mysore to Kushalnagara Section of NH-275 on Hybrid Annuity Mode
under NH(O) in the State of Karnataka (Package IV) worth of 5750 CR.
Construction of Access Controlled four laning with paved shoulder from
Mysore to Kushalnagara Section of NH-275 under NH(O) in the State of
Karnataka (Package V) worth of 6250 CR.
1. Project Execution Capabilities
19
SIGNIFICANT EXPERIENCE AND STRONG TRACK RECORD IN TIMELY EXECUTION OF PROJECTS
Top management’s active involvement at all stages of Project execution
Selection of Major Raw Material
Selection of construction Camp location
Faster Decision making to ensure project completion on schedule
Received Bonus for completion of construction ahead of schedule
NZDJPY BUY | Idea Trading AnalysisNZD/JPY is falling towards a support level which is a pullback support and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
We expect a decline in the channel after testing the current level which suggests that the price will continue to rise
Hello Traders, here is the full analysis.
I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great BUY opportunity NZDJPY
I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment.
-------------------
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 🤝
POLYPLEX: Price ActionOkay, This one was #Requested by @Sensiiiii
Here is all you need to know about NSE:POLYPLEX :
- Stock depreciated about 60 % from its ATH
- It filled the long due Gap and took support from it
- Thence, It has been consolidating for 9 Months now
- Price trading below 200 EMA a.k.a accumulation phase
- The PE was 15 at ATH and after 60% Depreciation, it still stands at 11.5. It's gotten a little palatable (kind of). PB is decent at 1.15
- A strong trendline has been a constant resistance. Given the sideways nature of the price action, A break of it should not impact much.
- Nothing interesting as of now. Things will be set in motion if the price breaks either of the zones (based on its price action) Or some interesting candlestick formation materializes.
What should we analyze next??
Have Requests, Questions, or Suggestions? Let us know in the comments below.👇
While you do that, how about a boost for some motivation🚀
⚠️Disclaimer: We are not registered advisors. The views expressed here are merely personal opinions. Irrespective of the language used, Nothing mentioned here should be considered as advice or recommendation. Please consult with your financial advisors before making any investment decisions. Like everybody else, we too can be wrong at times ✌🏻
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 26, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin exhibited significant down movement by reaching our Mean Support level at 64000 and subsequently rebounded strongly to retest our Mean Resistance level at 68200, as outlined in the Weekly Chart Analysis for the Week of July 19. The overall trend indicates progression toward the Inner Coin Rally at 70400, a retest of the completed Main Inner Coin Rally at 73200, and striding on to the anticipated long-term target of the Outer Coin Rally at 92000. It's important to note the initial downward pressure on the primary support at 65400 as the coin moves upward.
