Sell, Hold, or Hope? Netflix Approaches $1000Hi,
Looking at Netflix's historical price behavior around psychological round numbers ($100, $500), we see a pattern that indicates it might be a good idea to lock in some profits at these levels.
Why?
- Round numbers often act as psychological barriers where prices tend to consolidate or range for a while, limiting further growth.
- There's a significant chance of a correction, especially after a strong rally like the one we've seen recently.
Both of these scenarios suggest it's worth considering taking some money off the table. One thing is for sure: please avoid letting FOMO influence your decisions at these prices - don't buy it at the moment. There will be better changes, just be patient enough!
Historical Examples of Psychological Round Numbers
$100 Level (2015-2016)
In July 2015, Netflix approached the $100 level. While it did show some upward movement, the price largely ranged around this area until late 2016. It was stuck for months, offering limited returns for those who didn't react.
$500 Level (2021-2022)
Around $500, Netflix once again demonstrated the same behavior. For about a year, the stock did little more than range around this level. This shows how powerful round numbers can be as areas of stagnation.
Current Major Level: $1000
While Netflix has surpassed previous round numbers, $1000 is shaping up to be the most significant psychological level yet. The rise to this point has been enormous, and history suggests that sooner or later, a correction is likely.
If you're not prepared to hold through a potential correction or consolidation, the current price levels might be an ideal time to lock in profits. Long-term holders who stick to their thesis might choose to ride this out, the choice is yours. However, for mid-term investors, locking in some gains here could be a wise move!
"Sell, Hold, or Hope?"
Let's say in that way - I hope that some holders will sell around current prices! ;)
All the best,
Vaido
Investing
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 24, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this week's trading session, the S&P 500 successfully achieved our predefined target of Outer Index Rally, 6123, corresponding to the Key Resistance established at 6090. The market is currently exhibiting a phase of consolidation, as the bullish trend appears to be transiently suspended following the conclusion of the outer index rally. It is, however, essential to acknowledge that the absence of a significant corrective pullback may facilitate the re-initiation of a bullish trajectory toward additional rally targets. Such a development would position the market advantageously for the forthcoming phase of the bullish trend.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 24, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Eurodollar saw a significant increase during this week's trading session after successfully breaking through our resistance levels at 1.031 and 1.039 and is now resting at the previous weekly chart analysis charts identified as a resistance level of 1.051. We expect a rally towards the next key target, the Interim Inner Currency Rally, set at 1.060. However, this upward movement could lead to a temporary retracement towards the support level at 1.041 and may challenge the next significant support level at 1.024.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 24, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this week's trading session, Bitcoin has successfully achieved and completed a significant Inner Coin Rally at the 108000 level. This development indicates a probable pullback to the Mean Support level of 101300, with the potential for further extension to the Mean Support level of 98000 before a resurgence in the bull market may occur. Conversely, should this pullback not transpire, the currency may experience upward movement, retesting the completed Inner Coin Rally at 108000 and challenging the next Outer Coin Rally at 110000 and beyond.
Consumer Discretionary vs. Technology: Who Leads in 2025?Introduction:
This week, we’re analyzing two major growth-oriented sectors—consumer discretionary (XLY) and technology (XLK)—to uncover which might lead the market in 2025. The ratio between these sectors offers key insights into their relative strength and momentum, helping investors identify where to find potential outperformance.
Sector Dynamics:
Technology: As the largest and most influential sector in the stock market, tech often drives broader market trends.
Consumer Discretionary: With consumer spending accounting for nearly 70% of U.S. GDP, the health of this sector is crucial for sustained economic growth.
While both sectors thriving is ideal for market strength, discerning the one with stronger momentum is key for alpha seekers.
Analysis:
Recent Performance: Since June, consumer discretionary stocks have outperformed technology, showing short-term strength.
Long-Term Trend: Despite recent outperformance, the longer-term trend in this ratio has been downward, favoring technology.
Key Pattern: The ratio is approaching the resistance of a broadening wedge formation. A breakout above this resistance could indicate unexpected strength in consumer discretionary stocks, suggesting that the consumer may play a larger role in driving growth in 2025.
What to Watch:
Bullish Scenario: A confirmed breakout above the broadening wedge would signal relative strength in XLY, potentially shifting the leadership narrative.
Bearish Scenario: A rejection at resistance and a continuation of the downward trend would reinforce technology’s dominance.
Technology Bullish Play:
Entry: Wait for the ratio to roll over and confirm rejection at resistance.
Target: Position for XLK to regain its leadership role.
Stop Loss: Manage risk with stops above the wedge resistance.
Conclusion:
Both XLY and XLK play vital roles in market performance, but identifying which sector could dominate in 2025 is critical for investors. A breakout in the XLY-to-XLK ratio would signal an important shift in sector leadership, while a continuation of the downtrend reaffirms technology's dominance. Which sector do you think will lead the charge? Share your thoughts below!
Charts:
(Include a chart displaying the XLY-to-XLK ratio, the broadening wedge formation, and key levels of support and resistance. Highlight the short-term outperformance of XLY and the long-term downward trend favoring XLK.)
Tags: #ConsumerDiscretionary #Technology #XLY #XLK #GrowthStocks #SectorLeadership #TechnicalAnalysis
Netflix (NFLX): Explosive growth, but caution aheadNetflix ( NASDAQ:NFLX ) is set to open 14% higher after adding a record-breaking 18.9 million subscribers in Q4—nearly double Wall Street’s expectations and well above the early 2020 peak of 15.8 million. These incredible numbers have sparked a strong market reaction, and the enthusiasm is well-justified.
Following this update, we’ve re-evaluated the chart. While we anticipate the potential for more upside, it’s unlikely that NASDAQ:NFLX will continue climbing without a significant correction at some point. The trendline since May 2022 has proven its importance, serving as resistance nine times before being flipped into support and holding firm on a key retest.
Currently, Netflix is approaching the significant psychological level of $1,000. If this level is reclaimed, a further push toward $1,070 and even $1,300 could materialize. However, we’re exercising caution as major levels and target zones have already been achieved. There is a chance—albeit slim—that today’s earnings gap could mark the top of wave ((v)) and wave 3.
For now, we’re waiting for further developments and will decide our next steps as the stock’s trajectory becomes clearer. Stay tuned for updates.