Behind the DCA Strategy: What It Is and How It WorksWho invented the Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) investment strategy?
The concept of Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) was formalized and popularized by economists and investors throughout the 20th century, particularly with the growth of the U.S. stock market. One of the first to promote this strategy was Benjamin Graham , considered the father of value investing and author of the famous book The Intelligent Investor (published in 1949). Graham highlighted how DCA could help reduce the risk of buying assets at excessively high prices and improve investor discipline.
When and How Did Dollar Cost Averaging Originate?
The concept of DCA began to take shape in the early decades of the 20th century when financial institutions introduced automatic purchase programs for savers. However, it gained popularity among retail investors in the 1950s and 1960s with the rise of mutual funds.
Overview
The core principle of DCA involves investing a fixed amount of money at regular intervals (e.g., every month. This approach allows investors to purchase more units when prices are low and fewer units when prices are high, thereby reducing the impact of market volatility.
Why Was DCA Developed?
The strategy was developed to address key challenges faced by investors, including:
1. Reducing Market Timing Risk
Investing a fixed amount periodically eliminates the need to predict the perfect market entry point, reducing the risk of buying at peaks.
2. Discipline and Financial Planning
DCA helps investors maintain financial discipline, making investments more consistent and predictable.
3. Mitigating Volatility
Spreading trades over a long period reduces the impact of market fluctuations and minimizes the risk of experiencing a significant drop immediately after a large investment.
4. Ease of Implementation
The strategy is simple to apply and does not require constant market monitoring, making it accessible to all types of investors.
Types of DCA
Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) is an investment strategy that can be implemented in two main ways:
Time-Based DCA → Entries occur at regular intervals regardless of price.
Price-Based DCA → Entries occur only when the price meets specific criteria.
1. Time-Based DCA
How It Works: The investor buys a fixed amount of an asset at regular intervals (e.g., weekly, monthly). Entries occur regardless of market price.
Example: An investor decides to buy $200 worth of Bitcoin every month, without worrying whether the price has gone up or down.
2. Price-Based DCA
How It Works: Purchases occur only when the price drops below a predefined threshold. The investor sets price levels at which purchases will be executed (e.g., every -5%). This approach is more selective and allows for buying at a “discount” compared to the market trend.
Example: An investor decides to buy $200 worth of Bitcoin only when the price drops by at least 5% compared to the last entry.
Challenges and Limitations
1. DCA May Reduce Profits in Bull Markets
If the market is in an bullish trend, a single trade may be more profitable than spreading purchases over time or price dips.
2. Does Not Fully Remove Loss Risk
DCA helps mitigate volatility but does not protect against long-term bearish trends. If an asset continues to decline for an extended period, positions will accumulate at lower values with no guarantee of recovery.
3. May Be Inefficient for Active Investors
If an investor has the skills to identify better entry points (e.g., using technical or macroeconomic analysis), DCA might be less effective. Those who can spot market opportunities may achieve a better average entry price than an automatic DCA approach.
4. Does Not Take Full Advantage of Price Drops
DCA does not allow aggressive buying during market dips since purchases are fixed at regular intervals. If the market temporarily crashes, an investor with available funds could benefit more by buying larger amounts at that moment.
5. Higher Transaction Costs
Frequent small investments can lead to higher trading fees, which may reduce net returns. This is especially relevant in markets with fixed commissions or high spreads.
6. Risk of Overconfidence and False Security
DCA is often seen as a “fail-proof” strategy, but it is not always effective. If an asset has weak fundamentals or belongs to a declining sector, DCA may only slow down losses rather than ensure future gains.
7. Requires Discipline and Patience
DCA is only effective if applied consistently over a long period. Some investors may lose patience and leave the strategy at the wrong time, especially during market crashes.
Investments
Can Giants Maintain AI Dominance While Pursuing Independence?In the ever-evolving landscape of artificial intelligence, Microsoft stands at a fascinating crossroads that challenges conventional wisdom about technological partnerships and innovation. The tech giant's recent strategic moves present a compelling case study of how market leaders can simultaneously strengthen their AI capabilities while reducing dependencies on key partners. This delicate balance could reshape the future of enterprise AI.
Microsoft's remarkable journey is highlighted by Wall Street's growing confidence, with Loop Capital's target price increase to $550 reflecting strong market optimism. This confidence isn't merely speculative – it's backed by substantial investments, including a staggering $42.6 billion allocated to cloud and AI infrastructure in Q3 2024 alone. The company's financial performance reinforces this positive outlook, with earnings consistently exceeding expectations and revenue growing at an impressive 16% year-over-year.
What makes Microsoft's strategy particularly intriguing is its nuanced approach to partnerships and innovation. While maintaining its strategic alliance with OpenAI, the company actively diversifies its AI portfolio by developing internal models and exploring third-party integrations. This sophisticated balancing act, combined with strong institutional ownership and strategic insider movements, suggests a company that's not just adapting to change but actively shaping the future of AI enterprise solutions. The remaining question isn't whether Microsoft will maintain its market leadership, but how its strategic evolution will redefine the boundaries between partnership and independence in the AI era.
Bitcoin price Must surpass $100KBitcoin's price is seeing increased volatility around GETTEX:97K , and some crypto experts believe it’s on track to surpass $101K in the near term. Renowned analyst *PlanB* recently highlighted that Bitcoin’s current trajectory aligns with historical post-halving trends, suggesting significant upside potential. Similarly, a prominent advocate for Bitcoin, emphasized that growing institutional interest and adoption could fuel BTC’s rise past $101K. Our forecast anticipates Bitcoin reaching $100K by the end of 2024, driven by strong market sentiment following the halving event, with a potential to touch $270,593 by 2030 as institutional investments gain momentum.
HDFCBANK: A technical outlookThe chart is pretty self-explanatory as always :)
What do you make of this price action?
Have Requests, Questions, or Suggestions? DM us or comment below.👇
⚠️Disclaimer: We are not registered advisors. The views expressed here are merely personal opinions. Irrespective of the language used, Nothing mentioned here should be considered as advice or recommendation. Please consult with your financial advisors before making any investment decisions. Like everybody else, we too can be wrong at times ✌🏻
JUBLIFOOD: Breakout + RetestThe chart is self-explanatory as always :)
What should we analyze next?
Have Requests, Questions, or Suggestions? DM us or comment below.👇
⚠️Disclaimer: We are not registered advisors. The views expressed here are merely personal opinions. Irrespective of the language used, Nothing mentioned here should be considered as advice or recommendation. Please consult with your financial advisors before making any investment decisions. Like everybody else, we too can be wrong at times ✌🏻
INDIGO: A quick refueling is due??Okay, This one was requested by our newest follower @anurag3235
We are keeping the chart simple and self explanatory as always.
Although, One important thing to know is that the public shareholding in Indigo is mere 2%. Confused on if you should invest? We have a post that will help you make up your mind. Direct link is below:
What should we analyze next?
Have Requests, Questions, or Suggestions? DM us or comment below.👇
⚠️Disclaimer: We are not registered advisors. The views expressed here are merely personal opinions. Irrespective of the language used, Nothing mentioned here should be considered as advice or recommendation. Please consult with your financial advisors before making any investment decisions. Like everybody else, we too can be wrong at times ✌🏻
RENUKA, SHREE RENUKA SUGERSHi guys, In this chart i Found a Demand Zone in RENUKA CHART for Positional entry,
Observed these Levels based on price action and Demand & Supply.
*Don't Take any trades based on this Picture.
... because this chart is for educational purpose only not for Buy or Sell Recommendation..
Thank you
GOLD: Bullish- Ascending Triangle- Rebounce possible to 2149 $GOLD: Bullish- Ascending Triangle- Rebounce possible to 2149 $
Gold remains a safe haven despite the current fall!
the price still remains around 2000 dollars we could make a return to the highest level of Monday December 4, 2023 around $2,149
FOR WHAT?
because we have an "ascending triangle" which would take us up again to $2,149
In addition, the price has reached the Exponential Moving Average 50, and could rebound to break the polarity zone around 2,060
stay careful
Uptrend Channel pattern breakout in HCLTECHHCL TECHNOLOGIES LTD
Key highlights: 💡⚡
✅On 1Hour Time Frame Stock Showing Breakout of Uptrend Channel Pattern.
✅Strong Bullish Candlestick Form on this timeframe.
✅It can give movement up to the Breakout target of 1660+.
✅Can Go Long in this stock by placing a stop loss below 1595-.
OM Still has another 300% to Go Easily!Well now we see why this coins been on our radar since october. And it has no intention on stopping obviously. don't sleep on OM, the macd refuses to make a bearish cross, we're blowing past fib lines and consolidating without having real breakdowns. This is a definition of bullish
📈 *Name*: MANTRA
🔖 *Symbol*: OM
💲 *Price*: $0.15
📉 *24h Change*: -1.52%
📊 *7d Change*: 45.33%
💰 *Market Cap*: $117905688.24
🔄 *24h Volume*: $113588711.16
🏷️ *Tags*: defi, dao, kenetic-capital-portfolio, exnetwork-capital-portfolio, polygon-ecosystem, bnb-chain
🔎 *Symbol*: `OM/USDT`
📈 *Signal*: `Long`
💲 *Current Price*: `0.14608`
🛑 *Stop-Loss*: `0.06862956`
💰 *Market Cap*: `116161551.11797963`
🚪 *Entry Prices*:
📥 Entry Price 1: `0.11573043999999999`
📥 Entry Price 2: `0.13029978`
📥 Entry Price 3: `0.142075`
📥 Entry Price 4: `0.15385022`
🏁 *Exit Prices*:
📤 Exit Price 1: `0.23008978`
📤 Exit Price 2: `0.25364022`
📤 Exit Price 3: `0.29176`
📤 Exit Price 4: `0.32987977999999996`
🔎 *Symbol*: `OM/BTC`
📈 *Signal*: `Long`
💲 *Current Price*: `3.43e-06`
🛑 *Stop-Loss*: `1.6154e-06`
💰 *Market Cap*: `116161551.11797963`
🚪 *Entry Prices*:
📥 Entry Price 1: `2.7166e-06`
📥 Entry Price 2: `3.0572e-06`
📥 Entry Price 3: `3.3325e-06`
📥 Entry Price 4: `3.6078e-06`
🏁 *Exit Prices*:
📤 Exit Price 1: `5.3902e-06`
📤 Exit Price 2: `5.9408e-06`
📤 Exit Price 3: `6.832e-06`
📤 Exit Price 4: `7.7232e-06`
Capp/btc an easy 100x on btc? (Long Term)So a rare beast is forming here!
We have a long downtrend going below 1 satoshi on a coin that used to have some significant value. I see a huge spike in buying volume and price is finally starting to breakout.
This is a banger guys! Do not sleep on it! Right now it's .000000002 a 1/5th of a satoshi! Wow!
This coin is very likely to hit 130 sats easy!
Don't sleep on this project!
Icp Still Going DownhillMoving Averages Have Crossed Moving Downward and are still going down with no look to be curving back up showing bears have stregnth on that note.
The Macd suggested we have a bit of downward momentum coming still
We have Buyers Volume Dropping out With Selling Volume Coming in Heavy
Trb Is Just waiting to Break Out Seriously Look at how all these moving averages are sqeezing together on the hourly?
I also notice the macd is looking like it could cross any moment
TRB Has a circulating and total supply of only 2.5 milion and has been steadily climbing for the last 2 years
I wouldn't sleep on trb as i could easily see this project being worth over 10k a coin in a bull market scenerio
Reversal Double Bottom pattern in PELPIRAMAL ENTERPRISES LTD
Key highlights: 💡⚡
📈 On 1 Hour Time Frame Stock Showing Reversal of Double Bottom Pattern.
📈 It can give movement upto the Reversal Final target of Above 953+.
📈 There have chances of breakout of Resistance level too.
📈 After breakout of Resistance level this stock can gives strong upside rally upto Above 1022+.
📈 Can Go Long in this stock by placing a stop loss Below 850-.
HOW-TO apply an indicator that is only available upon request?Recently, I've realized that my typical day involves constant encounters with indicators. For example, when the alarm clock rings, it's an indicator that it's morning and time to get up. I am checking the phone and once again paying attention to the indicators: battery charge and network signal level. I figure out in just one second that such a complex element of the phone as the battery is 100% charged and the signal from the cell towers is good enough.
Then I’m going out on a busy street, and it's only because of the traffic light indicator that I can safely cross the road to reach the parking lot. Looking at the on-board computer of my car, with its many indicators, I know that all the components of this complicated mechanism are working properly, and I can start driving.
Now, imagine what would happen if none of this existed. I would have to act blindly, relying on luck: hoping that I would wake up on time, that the phone would work today, that car drivers would let me cross the road, and that my own car would not suddenly stop because it ran out of gas.
We can say that indicators help to explain complex processes or phenomena in simple and understandable language. I think they will always be in demand in today's complex world, where we deal with a huge flow of information that cannot be perceived without simplifications.
If we talk about the financial market, it's all about constant data, data, data. Add in the element of randomness and everything becomes totally messed up.
To create indicators that simplify the analysis of financial information, the TradingView platform uses its own programming language — Pine Script . With this language, you can describe not only unique indicators, but also strategies — meaning algorithms for opening and closing positions.
All these tools are grouped together under the term "script" . Just like a trade or educational idea, a script can also be published. After this, it will be available to other users. The published script can be:
1. Visible in the list of community scripts with unrestricted access. Simply find the script by its name and add it to the chart.
2. Visible in the list of community scripts, but access is by invitation only. You'll need to find the script by its name and request access from its author.
3. Not visible in the list of community scripts, but accessible via a link. To add such a script to a chart, you need to have the link.
4. Not visible in the list of community scripts; access is by invitation only. You'll need both a link to the script and permission for access obtained from its author.
If you have added to your favorites a script that requires permission from the author, you'll only be able to start using the indicators after the author includes you in the script's user list. Without this, you will get an error message every time you add an indicator to the chart. In this case, contact the author to learn how to gain access. Instructions on how to contact the author are located after the script's description and highlighted within a frame. There you will also find the 'Add to favorite indicators' button.
The access can be valid until a certain date or indefinitely. If the author has granted access, you will be able to add the script to the chart.
Disney $dis #dis Back in our Buy zone.The gift that just keep giving. We laid out this plan Months ago and even first talked about it being something to watch for last year. Ever since it became fully actionable it has continued to do exactly as we have planned and so far, so good, we just keep buying low and selling/trimming higher.
In the bigger picture i still say buyers should be highly considering keeping some shares sub$100 and especially sub $90 for long term holds/investments.
These sub $85 and even better sub $80 positions may someday seem like a GIFT for the future of your portfolio's.
Don't miss out and squander this opportunity.
This is the Bottom $btc Bitcoin Fibonacci levels from historic lows, to significant tops. Note that at the .786 level, and anything lower, (note as well the potential 30% drawdown lasting up to 2 months that can occur at significant cycle bottoms) has historically been the bottom for the cycle. We might front run the bottom though and fill up before we reach say $10,000 or lower. The 2018 bear market bottom showed no journey into sub .786 levels, which again would almost certainly be the most optimal long entry point (low end of .786 and anything sub.) Further, THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISK to take in end of the year 2022, would be an under exposure to the brave new asset, or stocks in general as the fed is forced into dovish expression.
the fed has a money printer
BSW successful trading and investmentHello, friends of the cryptocurrency world! 🚀
Today, I want to share my thoughts with you about the current situation in the altcoin market. It seems that many projects are now very close to their bottom points, and this could be an opportune moment for making well-informed choices and investments.
It's important to understand that the cryptocurrency market is always unpredictable, and no one knows exactly when prices will hit rock bottom. However, it's precisely these moments that can create unique opportunities for successful trading and investment.
Today, I've paid special attention to the BSW token and noticed that its price is currently at its minimum. I've decided to consider this token for my trading and investment activities. Of course, this isn't advice or a recommendation for everyone; it's merely my personal choice based on analysis and my own strategy.
Regardless of the market situation, I recommend adhering to the fundamental principles of risk management and never investing funds you're not prepared to lose.
Wishing you successful trades and smart investments!
The Ups and Downs of Investment Risk: Navigating the Risk Level
👉🏻The world of investing can be a wild ride, full of twists and turns that can lead to either high gains or crushing losses. That’s why it’s important to understand the different risk levels that come with investing in various assets. Let’s explore the three main categories of investment risk levels: low, moderate, and high.
💹Low Risk
If you’re risk-averse and prefer a steady, predictable return on your investment, low-risk options are the way to go. These are investments with low volatility and minimal chance of losing money.
💹Moderate Risk
If you’re willing to take a bit more risk for potentially higher returns, moderate-risk investments might be a good fit for you. These typically have a higher volatility rate, but still have a good chance of earning a positive return in the long run.
💹High Risk
For those willing to take on the highest level of investing risk in search of the highest returns, high-risk investments might be worth considering. These have the highest potential for extreme highs and extreme lows with significant volatility.
👉🏻It’s important to note that each investor’s risk tolerance is different, and what might be a high-risk investment for one person could be a low-risk investment for another. So, when considering investment options, make sure to weigh both the potential rewards and the accompanying risks.
👉🏻In conclusion, investing involves a certain amount of risk, but understanding and balancing those risks can help you make informed decisions that align with your financial goals. Whether you opt for low, moderate, or high-risk investments, do your research and seek advice from financial professionals to determine which level of investing risk is right for you. Happy investing!
😸Thank you for reading buddy, hope you learned something new today😸
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Price/Earnings: amazing interpretation #2In my previous post , we started to analyze the most popular financial ratio in the world – Price / Earnings or P/E (particularly one of the options for interpreting it). I said that P/E can be defined as the amount of money that must be paid once in order to receive 1 monetary unit of diluted net income per year. For American companies, it will be in US dollars, for Indian companies it will be in rupees, etc.
In this post, I would like to analyze another interpretation of this financial ratio, which will allow you to look at P/E differently. To do this, let's look at the formula for calculating P/E again:
P/E = Capitalization / Diluted earnings
Now let's add some refinements to the formula:
P/E = Current capitalization / Diluted earnings for the last year (*)
(*) In my case, by year I mean the last 12 months.
Next, let's see what the Current capitalization and Diluted earnings for the last year are expressed in, for example, in an American company:
- Current capitalization is in $;
- Diluted earnings for the last year are in $/year.
As a result, we can write the following formula:
P/E = Current capitalization / Diluted earnings for the last year = $ / $ / year = N years (*)
(*) According to the basic rules of math, $ will be reduced by $, and we will be left with only the number of years.
It's very unusual, isn't it? It turns out that P/E can also be the number of years!
Yes, indeed, we can say that P/E is the number of years that a shareholder (investor) will need to wait in order to recoup their investments at the current price from the earnings flow, provided that the level of profit does not change .
Of course, the condition of an unchangeable level of profit is very unrealistic. It is rare to find a company that shows the same profit from year to year. Nevertheless, we have nothing more real than the current capitalization of the company and its latest profit. Everything else is just predictions and probable estimates.
It is also important to understand that during the purchase of shares, the investor fixates one of the P/E components - the price (P). Therefore, they only need to keep an eye on the earnings (E) and calculate their own P/E without paying attention to the current capitalization.
If the level of earnings increases since the purchase of shares, the investor's personal P/E will decrease, and, consequently, the number of years to wait for recoupment.
Another thing is when the earnings level, on the contrary, decreases – then an investor will face an increase in their P/E level and, consequently, an increase in the payback period of their own investments. In this case, of course, you have to think about the prospects of such an investment.
You can also argue that not all 100% of earnings are spent paying dividends, and therefore you can’t use the level of earnings to calculate the payback period of an investment. Yes, indeed: it is rare for a company to give all of its earnings to dividends. However, the lack of a proper dividend level is not a reason to change anything in the formula or this interpretation at all, because retained earnings are the main fundamental driver of a company's capitalization growth. And whatever the investor misses out on in terms of dividends, they can get it in the form of an increase in the value of the shares they bought.
Now, let's discuss how to interpret the obtained P/E value. Intuitively, the lower it is, the better. For example, if an investor bought shares at P/E = 100, it means that they will have to wait 100 years for their investment to pay off. That seems like a risky investment, doesn't it? Of course, one can hope for future earnings growth and, consequently, for a decrease in their personal P/E value. But what if it doesn’t happen?
Let me give you an example. For instance, you have bought a country house, and so now you have to get to work via country roads. You have an inexpensive off-road vehicle to do this task. It does its job well and takes you to work via a road that has nothing but potholes. Thus, you get the necessary positive effect this inexpensive thing provides. However, later you learn that they will build a high-speed highway in place of the rural road. And that is exactly what you have dreamed of! After hearing the news, you buy a Ferrari. Now, you will be able to get to work in 5 minutes instead of 30 minutes (and in such a nice car!) However, you have to leave your new sports car in the yard to wait until the road is built. A month later, the news came out that, due to the structure of the road, the highway would be built in a completely different location. A year later your off-road vehicle breaks down. Oh well, now you have to get into your Ferrari and swerve around the potholes. It is not hard to guess what is going to happen to your expensive car after a while. This way, your high expectations for the future road project turned out to be a disaster for your investment in the expensive car.
It works the same way with stock investments. If you only consider the company's future earnings forecast, you run the risk of being left alone with just the forecast instead of the earnings. Thus, P/E can serve as a measure of your risk. The higher the P/E value at the time you buy a stock, the more risk you take. But what is the acceptable level of P/E ?
Oddly enough, I think the answer to this question depends on your age. When you are just beginning your journey, life gives you an absolutely priceless resource, known as time. You can try, take risks, make mistakes, and then try again. That's what children do as they explore the world around them. Or when young people try out different jobs to find exactly what they like. You can use your time in the stock market in the same manner - by looking at companies with a P/E that suits your age.
The younger you are, the higher P/E level you can afford when selecting companies. Conversely, in my opinion, the older you are, the lower P/E level you can afford. To put it simply, you just don’t have as much time to wait for a return on your investment.
So, my point is, the stock market perception of a 20-year-old investor should differ from the perception of a 50-year-old investor. If the former can afford to invest with a high payback period, it may be too risky for the latter.
Now let's try to translate this reasoning into a specific algorithm.
First, let's see how many companies we are able to find in different P/E ranges. As an example, let's take the companies that are traded on the NYSE (April 2023).
As you can see from the table, the larger the P/E range, the more companies we can consider. The investor's task comes down to figuring out what P/E range is relevant to them in their current age. To do this, we need data on life expectancy in different countries. As an example, let's take the World Bank Group's 2020 data for several countries: Japan, India, China, Russia, Germany, Spain, the United States, and Brazil.
To understand which range of P/E values to choose, you need to subtract your current age from your life expectancy:
Life Expectancy - Your Current Age
I recommend focusing on the country where you expect to live most of your life.
Thus, for a 25-year-old male from the United States, the difference would be:
74,50 - 25 = 49,50
Which corresponds with a P/E range of 0 to 50.
For a 60-year-old woman from Japan, the difference would be:
87,74 - 60 = 27,74
Which corresponds with a P/E range of 0 to 30.
For a 70-year-old man from Russia, the difference would be:
66,49 - 70 = -3,51
In the case of a negative difference, the P/E range of 0 to 10 should be used.
It doesn’t matter which country's stocks you invest in if you expect to live most of your life in Japan, Russia, or the United States. P/E indicates time, and time flows the same for any company and for you.
So, this algorithm will allow you to easily calculate your acceptable range of P/E values. However, I want to caution you against making investment decisions based on this ratio alone. A low P/E value does not guarantee that you are free of risks . For example, sometimes the P/E level can drop significantly due to a decline in P (capitalization) because of extraordinary events, whose impact can only be seen in a future income statement (where we would learn the actual value of E - earnings).
Nevertheless, the P/E value is a good indicator of the payback period of your investment, which answers the question: when should you consider buying a company's stock? When the P/E value is in an acceptable range of values for you. But the P/E level doesn’t tell you what company to consider and what price to take. I will tell you about this in the next posts. See you soon!
Price / Earnings: Interpretation #1In one of my first posts , I talked about the main idea of my investment strategy: buy great “things” during the sales season . This rule can be applied to any object of the material world: real estate, cars, clothes, food and, of course, shares of public companies.
However, a seemingly simple idea requires the ability to understand both the quality of “things” and their value. Suppose we have solved the issue with quality (*).
(*) A very bold assumption, I realize that. However, the following posts will cover this topic in more detail. Be a little patient.
So, we know the signs of a high-quality thing and are able to define it skilfully enough. But what about its cost?
"Easy-peasy!" you will say, "For example, I know that the Mercedes-Benz plant produces high-quality cars, so I should just find out the prices for a certain model in different car dealerships and choose the cheapest one."
"Great plan!" I will say. But what about shares of public companies? Even if you find a fundamentally strong company, how do you know if it is expensive or cheap?
Let's imagine that the company is also a machine. A machine that makes profit. It needs to be fed with resources, things are happening in there, some cogs are turning, and as a result we get earnings. This is its main goal and purpose.
Each machine has its own name, such as Apple or McDonald's. It has its own resources and mechanisms, but it produces one product – earnings.
Now let’s suppose that the capitalization of the company is the value of such a machine. Let's see how much Apple and McDonald's cost today:
Apple - $2.538 trillion
McDonald's - $202.552 billion
We see that Apple is more than 10 times more expensive than McDonald's. But is it really so from an investor's point of view?
The paradox is that we can't say for sure that Apple is 10 times more expensive than McDonald's until we divide each company's value by its earnings. Why exactly? Let's count and it will become clear:
Apple's diluted net income - $99.803 billion a year
McDonald's diluted net income - $6.177 billion a year
Now read this phrase slowly, and if necessary, several times: “The value is what we pay now. Earnings are what we get all the time” .
To understand how many dollars we need to pay now for the production of 1 dollar of profit a year, we need to divide the value of the company (its capitalization) by its annual profit. We get:
Apple - $25.43
McDonald’s - $32.79
It turns out that in order to get $ 1 earnings a year, for Apple we need to pay $25.43, and for McDonald's - $32.79. Wow!
Currently, I believe that Apple appears cheaper than McDonald's.
To remember this information better, imagine two machines that produce one-dollar bills at the same rate (once a year). In the case of an Apple machine, you pay $25.43 to issue this bill, and in the case of a McDonald’s machine, you pay $32.70. Which one will you choose?
So, if we remove the $ symbol from these numbers, we get the world's most famous financial ratio Price/Earnings or P/E . It shows how much we, as investors, need to pay for the production of 1 unit of annual profit. And pay only once.
There are two formulas for calculating this financial ratio:
1. P/E = Price of 1 share / Diluted EPS
2. P/E = Capitalization / Diluted Net Income
Whatever formula you use, the result will be the same. By the way, I mainly use the Diluted Net Income instead of the regular one in my calculations. So do not be confused if you see a formula with a Net Income – you can calculate it this way as well.
So, in the current publication, I have analyzed one of the interpretations of this financial ratio. But, in fact, there is another interpretation that I really like. It will help you realize which P/E level to choose for yourself. But more on that in the next post. See you!