Strike a Perfect Balance Between Systematicness and AdaptabilitySuccessful, consistent trading in the long run demands a delicate balance between two key realms: systematicness and adaptability. You can neither be fully automated/robotic nor completely agile and without a plan. Radicalising either approach could lead to catastrophe.
Thus, we must blend these elements into a cohesive strategy.
The Notion of Systematicness
1) Risking 1% of the Total Capital per Trade
You must remain consistent regarding your risk exposure per transaction. Defining your risk appetite beforehand and strictly adhering to these principles is crucial. Being flexible with this factor increases the likelihood of becoming overconfident and over-risking at times.
2) Trading Only One or Two Financial Instruments
Every financial security has its own unique market dynamics. Sticking to one or two pairs allows for deeper understanding without overloading your watchlist with dozens of instruments. By taking a selective approach, you can develop a closer connection with those instruments and better understand their price behavior. In our practice, we focus on two pairs: EUR/GBP and USD/CHF.
3) Monitoring and Executing Trades Based on Two Timeframes
Timeframes are interconnected. A daily candle comprises six 4-hour candles, and each 4-hour candle includes four 1-hour candles, and so on. By focusing on just two or three timeframes—one for direction and another for entries and target settlements—you cultivate a more minimalistic approach and a deeper understanding of price behaviour.
4) Thoroughly Journaling Every Transaction
Journaling every trade, extracting key takeaways, and implementing optimisations is absolutely critical. A systematic approach to journaling helps improve your skills and understanding of the market over time.
5) Establishing Psychological Consistency Through a Set of Rules
Your mental state directly affects your trading performance. That’s why it's often said to avoid trading when emotional, tired, or mentally clouded. Establishing and adhering to a set of psychological norms is crucial to maintaining consistency and avoiding emotional trading decisions.
6) Controlling Leverage and Margin Use
Similar to risk management, using excessive leverage and high margin per trade can be detrimental. Define your leverage and margin criteria in advance and stick to them rigorously to avoid catastrophic losses.
The Realm of Adaptability
1) Entering Trades Based on Ongoing Development
If you adopt a fully static approach to trade execution, this rule falls under systematicness. However, if you prefer to read a chart like a book and make decisions based on price behavior, you're taking an adaptive approach. This means you trade what you see, not what you hope for. You must assess how price is developing and interpret its signals before taking action.
2) Conducting Early Closures Based on Market Build-Up
Optimism can sometimes cloud judgment when setting target settlements. However, it's essential to remain flexible and know when to exit if the original plan becomes invalid. Recognising when to abandon a trade is key to protecting profits.
3) Setting Realistic Target Zones Based on Price Development
Some traders aim for the same risk-reward ratio (e.g., 1:3) on every trade. However, it is often more effective to set realistic targets based on technical analysis, such as previous key levels or significant areas of interest. This flexibility allows for better alignment with current market conditions.
4) Placing Relatively Wide Stop-Loss Levels to Account for Potential Liquidity Grabs
While some traders use a static stop-loss value, others take a more flexible approach. By adjusting the stop-loss based on price development, you can avoid liquidity grabs and give the trade more breathing room.
5) Refraining from Entering Positions
When Indecisive Adaptability also applies to your psychological state. When you feel unsure or indecisive, it's often better to stay off the charts, allowing time for clarity and a fresh perspective before re-engaging with the market.
6) Making Optimisations Within the Trading Plan
Over Time Trading success requires continuous improvement and optimisation. There’s always room for refinement, and adapting your plan as you gain experience is essential for long-term growth.
Of course, every trader has his/her own approach within the market. In our case, we aim towards creating a feasible bridge between two universes - systematic and adaptive - and preserving consistent profitability in the long run.
Investroy
A Simple and Effective Strategy to Outsmart Liquidity HuntingHave you ever encountered a scenario where the price hits your Stop Loss level first, only to then fully reverse and head in the direction of your target profit, ultimately reaching it? If the answer is yes, you’ve most likely fallen victim to what is commonly referred to as a 'liquidity grab'. In other terms, this phenomenon is known as 'stop-loss hunting', and it is an inescapable occurrence within the realm of trading.
But why does it happen? The answer lies in the actions of big market players, such as banks and institutions, who need to fill their large positions. Simply put, for markets to function properly, there must be equilibrium - an equal number of buyers and sellers, a balance between supply and demand. For every buy-back and sell-off you conduct, there must be an opposing party willing to execute the trade with you. This is where brokers come into play, linking both sides of the transaction. When there is an imbalance between buyers and sellers, it leads to market inefficiency, which can result in excess supply or demand, distorting price movements. Market makers help prevent this by ensuring market stability and securing better pricing for executing large orders.
For example, imagine you have analysed the sentiment and opened a SELL trade on USD/CHF at a key level, placing your Stop Loss just above the same zone. After some time, you notice the price impulsively moves towards your Stop Loss, triggering it and taking you out of the trade. Later, you watch the price flip and move in the direction you had originally predicted. Frustrated, you begin to blame the market, convinced it’s rigged against you. However, what really happened is that the price was pushed into an obvious pool of Stop Losses, allowing the positions you and many others sold to be bought back. This also enabled large institutional orders to be filled at better prices, while maintaining balance between buy and sell orders.
How do you avoid this? The key is to better understand market dynamics and make more informed decisions. In this scenario, a smarter approach would have been to place your entry where the obvious pool of Stop Losses is located. By doing so, you could have captured a more favourable risk-to-reward ratio, perhaps achieving a 1:3 trade, as illustrated in the accompanying chart.
So next time, before rushing into a trade, take a step back. Assess the situation with greater patience and clarity. Often, there’s an initial push, just as the price action indicates. This move entices traders into premature entries. Afterward, a sudden liquidity grab occurs, wiping out these traders before the market reverses in the anticipated direction.
Be patient. Play it smart.
Best wishes,
Investroy
Successful Trading Resembles a CardiogramI once came across a statement that went something like this: “Success is much more like a cardiogram than we realise. There are ups, downs, and periods of stability”. This made me wonder: "Why are the ups, downs, and phases of stability considered normal, rather than constant stability?" The answer was revealing: “If there are ups, downs, and phases of stability, it means you're alive and progressing. If everything is perfectly stable, it means you're stuck and not moving forward”.
The process of successful trading within the financial markets closely resembles a cardiogram. From a custom-created graph illustration, each spike could represent an individual trade or even a monthly net total. Through big and small wins, small losses, and inevitable breakeven points, we achieve and maintain consistent long-term profitability. As a trader, this balance is essential.
Unfortunately, distortions introduced by firms promising ‘get-rich-quick’ schemes and making unrealistic claims have led many to fall for the illusion of constant winning. In reality, prioritising a sound risk-reward strategy is far more important than focusing solely on win rates. In fact, with a feasible risk management plan, patience, discipline, and a rational approach to the market, one could be wrong half the time and still achieve long-term success.
So, the next time you experience a losing streak or face psychological uncertainty, remember that setbacks are part of the journey. Over time, with the right mindset and strategy, everything will fall into place. After all, trading success is a dynamic process - much like the rhythm of a cardiogram.
Technical Analysis is NOT What the Majority Thinks It Is
One of my favourite activities during my free time is sitting on the sofa and finding analyses on TradingView that resemble the one portrayed on the left-hand side of the illustration. My goal is to try deciphering what a given author is trying to convey to us, the audience. As you know, the more noise there is on the charts, the blurrier the picture becomes. The blurrier the picture, the more there is room for curiosity and discovery.
Over the years, I’ve become more convinced that less is more and that you don’t need to clutter your charts with an abundance of instruments while conducting a technical orchestration. In fact, most people have false expectations regarding how proper technical analysis should be conducted. Many think TA is all about lines and boxes when, in reality, it’s about understanding price behaviour and making educated guesses with pre-calculated risk. Therefore, the aim of this brief educational article is to contrast two types of traders – let’s call them Average Joe and Experienced Joe – and provide professional insights into how technical analysis really functions and should be practiced.
Let’s start by scrutinising the scenario on the left. The author has identified some critical regions, drawn a few lines, and highlighted a Fibonacci retracement level of importance. Then, they sketched a game plan using arrows to indicate how the price might behave next. What’s wrong with this approach? In short, everything. The longer answer: there’s a lack of necessary technical interpretation combined with unnecessary efforts. Although some analytical tools are present, they don’t offer any depth in terms of what the price behaviour might be orchestrating. Nor do most of these instruments serve any purpose when applied in a scattered manner.
Now, let’s analyse what Experienced Joe – the trader behind the right-hand side of the screen – has put together. He has identified key regions and utilised a few tools for mapping purposes. However, his primary focus is understanding price behaviour by interpreting movements on the weekly-timeframe chart. Since he has traded the same handful of financial securities for years, he is experienced in reading charts like a book and grasping the logic behind price action. After understanding what’s unfolding, the trader finalises his game plan and executes positions.
Comparing the two traders, we can see a significant difference between using technical instruments in abundance without comprehension, and using them in moderation with the real goal of understanding price behaviour.
With that said, here is a 3-step guide on how to properly utilise technical analysis when studying a financial instrument and entering trade positions:
Step #1 - Read the chart like a book.
Where is the price potentially headed?
What has been happening recently?
What economic event caused the massive candle spike?
Does it look like the price is correcting a recent impulse?
Take a glance at the graph and try to understand the overall situation.
Step #2 - Highlight key zones and sketch a game plan.
This is a crucial level that the price has respected for a significant amount of time.
Here, the price printed a liquidity grab, so I’ll mark that.
The price is forming a reversal bottom, so I’m preparing to go long from here.
The 0.84 region looks like a solid initial target.
Sketch a preliminary game plan based on your analysis and focus on execution.
Step #3 - Execute a trade position at pre-calculated risk (usually, 1-2%).
Set your entry.
Place your Stop Loss.
Execute the trade.
In conclusion, technical analysis is not just about drawing some lines and shapes. It’s time to change the stereotype and emphasise the real utility of technical analysis. After all, trading without trying to understand price dynamics—especially if you are a technical trader—is like blindly memorising driving rules without understanding their purpose. Of course, there’s no secret recipe that works 100% of the time, including technical analysis. However, by sticking to a consistent approach and being patient, we can aim toward achieving long-term profitability.
BTC/USD (bitcoin): the multi-timeframe outlookInitially, looking at the Weekly timeframe chart, it could be noted that the price has been unable to continue pushing in the upside destination for more than 2 weeks now. Leaving huge wick candles in the upward direction, the market structure is making it relatively evident that bearish waves could kick in and drive the price towards the target region mapped on the graph.
Zooming into the Daily-timeframe graph, we may witness some sort of a triangle pattern formulation. With the upward slope getting steeper after every touch, there is a big chance that the lower barrier will get penetrated and the price will keep pushing in the downside destination towards the pre-projected target region.
Thus, we have orchestrated a preliminary trade idea with the Stop Loss set above the upper barrier of the formed triangle and the target placed at the Weekly-timeframe key region. Making an execution at the market price, we are aiming towards capturing a steady 1:3 risk-reward trade.
ETHEREUM (ETH/USD): a potential correctional move is inboundJust like the textbook states, an impulse is followed by a correction. Examining the recent build-up, we might infer that the price has been soaring in the upside direction after having broken out of the descending trend-line mapped on the graph. At the moment, however, we are witnessing obvious signs of a potential bearish reversal and, if bearish moves kick in, we might expect for the price to impulse in the destination of the $3,4k level, that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level as identified by connecting the start and the finish of the recent impulse.
GOLD (XAU/USD): what does the MTF view orchestrate?Initially, taking a look at the Monthly-timeframe development, it could be noted that the price is printing huge wick candles, which emphasises the inability to continue pushing in the upside destination. Identifying all crucial key zones and levels of decision, we may point out the importance of the 2.07 key region, the borders of which could be visited in the upcoming middle to long run if our game-plan plays out as desired.
Zooming into the Weekly-timeframe chart to locate probable entry areas, the right shoulder zone of the currently forming Head&Shoulders pattern could be held under the radar. If the price manages to bounce off the neckline highlighted on the graph and reach the right shoulder zone as orchestrated, we might look into taking short positions and aim for the 2.07 destination in the upcoming long run.
USD/CAD (dollar-canada): as textbook as it getsObserving the Monthly-timeframe movement on USD/CAD, it could be inferred that the price has rejected the upper barrier of the rectangular range as mapped on the graph and formulated a new top. From here, in the upcoming long run, we are anticipating for the price to keep declining and, eventually, reach the lower boundary of the channel as indicated on the graph.
EUR/GBP (euro-pound): two potential targets have been identifiedObserving the ongoing build-up on the Daily-timeframe graph, it could be inferred that the price has been developing for potentially upcoming bullish moves. Having spiked below the local key level and grabbed liquidity, we might imply that a bullish wave is ready to commence. Thus, having set buy positions with the stop-out order below the recent liquidity wick, we are having eyes on two key zones for making closures - both partial and full - and generating profits. With the total risk-reward set at an approximation of 1:4, we are being patient and awaiting further action from the price.
Nevertheless, there is no need to rush. As we know well, the market should and will do its thing regardless of our interpretation of it. Hence, the only thing that we could do is to follow our risk management plan, take a calculated guess, and have eyes on the long-term spectrum while remaining patient and composed at all times and costs.
EUR/USD (euro-dollar): a multi-timeframe view (W & D)Initially, looking at the Weekly-timeframe chart on the left-hand side of the screen, it could be inferred that the price has been unable to break below the major key zone of 1.072 and, ever since, it has been impulsing in the upside destination. Judging by the ongoing build-up, the bullish wave does not show any signs of stoppage and is continuing to move in the upward direction after having broken out of the descending trend-line highlighted on the chart.
Zooming into the Daily timeframe, the zone-to-zone movement of the price could be clearly noticed. Thus, holding on to our bullish sentiment, we are executing long positions with the stop-out order below the ongoing build-up and the target level set at key level identified on the Weekly timeframe.
USD/CHF (dollar-franc): a detailed technical orchestrationJudging by the Daily-timeframe build-up, we might imply that the price has nicely tapped into the liquidity region laying above the right shoulder of the recently formulated Head&Shoulders pattern, and now we are observing bearish moves in the destination of two zones - the pattern neckline and the 0.888 key level. Upon reaching the pattern neckline (0.9 region), we will be observing price behaviour before taking further action. If we are able to witness some rejections, then, there is a high probability that the 0.909 region will be re-visited for a re-touch (break+retest formation) before further bearish moves resume and, potentially, drive the price in the destination of the 0.888 level. On the other hand, if no signs of a bounce are printed on the 0.9 zone and the break is evident, then, the price will have enough potential to keep dropping till the 0.888 region.
All in all, we recommend to have eyes on the day-to-day development and make decisions with no rush.
Hope this idea is of help!
The Art of Trading: Parallel Between Master Artists and Traders The world of trading, much like the realm of art, is filled with uncertainty, complexity, and the need for creativity. Both traders and artists embark on journeys of discovery, seeking to master their crafts and find a unique approach in their respective fields. Without further due, let’s delve into the fascinating parallels between the practices of famous artists and the strategies employed by successful traders, uncovering lessons that can be applied to excel in the volatile world of trading.
1. The Picasso Perspective: Pablo Picasso, a pioneer of modern art, was never afraid to take risks and break away from conventional artistic norms. His innovative spirit led to the creation of Cubism, a radical departure from traditional art forms.
Trading Lesson: Just as Picasso embraced risk to innovate in art, traders should cultivate a willingness to take calculated risks and explore unconventional strategies. The key is to manage risk effectively, ensuring that potential rewards justify the risks taken (we would strongly encourage 1% risk with risk/reward ratio of 1:3.5+).
2. The Van Gogh Paradox: Patience in the Midst of Turbulence Vincent van Gogh’s life and work exemplify the importance of patience and perseverance. Despite facing rejection and lack of recognition during his lifetime, Van Gogh continued to paint, ultimately leaving behind a legacy of masterpieces.
Trading Lesson: We can learn from Van Gogh’s unwavering commitment to his art, understanding that success in trading often requires patience and resilience. Even in turbulent markets, maintaining a long-term perspective and sticking to one’s trading plan can lead to eventual success. Although it is pretty common to see backlash from family and friends, if you stick to your goals and passion, there is no doubt you can be the next Van Gogh of trading.
3. The Da Vinci Code: Leonardo da Vinci, a true Renaissance man, was known for his disciplined approach to art and his insatiable curiosity. He meticulously studied various subjects, from anatomy to aerodynamics, to enhance his artistic abilities.
Trading Lesson: Traders can draw inspiration from Da Vinci’s disciplined nature and commitment to continuous learning. Staying informed about market trends, refining trading strategies, and maintaining discipline in executing trades are crucial for trading success. As cliché as it sounds, consistency is the key. Creating the trading plan is not that hard, sticking to it is what makes the real difference.
4. The Monet Method - The Beauty in Patterns and Trends: Claude Monet, a founding father of Impressionism, was renowned for his ability to capture the subtle nuances of light and color, often painting the same scene multiple times to depict different lighting conditions.
Trading Lesson: Just as Monet focused on patterns and trends in his artwork, traders should develop a keen eye for recognizing market patterns and trends. Technical analysis can be a powerful tool in a trader’s arsenal, helping to predict future price movements based on historical patterns.
5. The Matisse Approach - Simplicity and Clarity: Henri Matisse was known for his use of bold colors and simple shapes, stripping away unnecessary details to focus on the essential elements of his compositions.
Trading Lesson: In trading, simplicity can be a virtue. Traders can learn from Matisse’s approach by simplifying their trading strategies, focusing on key indicators, and avoiding unnecessary complexity. A clear and straightforward trading plan can lead to more consistent results.
6. The Michelangelo Mindset - Mastery Through Practice: Michelangelo, one of the greatest artists of all time, spent countless hours perfecting his craft, from sculpting masterpieces like David to painting the Sistine Chapel ceiling.
Trading Lesson: Trading mastery, much like artistic mastery, requires extensive practice and dedication. Traders should commit to honing their skills, practicing their strategies, and learning from both successes and failures. The journey to trading excellence is a marathon, not a sprint. Try having small positive months in a row, instead of 1 month with +100% return and account blown right after.
7. The Pollock Principle - Embracing Uncertainty: Jackson Pollock, famous for his abstract expressionist drip paintings, embraced randomness and uncertainty in his creative process, allowing the paint to fall where it may.
Trading Lesson: The financial markets are inherently uncertain, and traders must learn to embrace and navigate this uncertainty. Developing a robust risk management strategy and maintaining a balanced portfolio can help traders manage uncertainty and protect their capital. As you have probably heard from many other specialists: “Trading is the game of probability”.
8. The O’Keeffe Outlook - A Unique Perspective: Georgia O’Keeffe is celebrated for her distinctive style and her ability to see beauty in the simplest of forms, often magnifying flowers and other natural elements in her artwork.
Trading Lesson: Developing a unique trading perspective can give traders an edge in the markets. Traders should strive to think independently, conduct their own analysis, and avoid getting swayed by the crowd. A unique and well-informed perspective can lead to more profitable trading decisions. There is nothing wrong with being inspired by a post made by a well-known TradingView author, but that shouldn’t prevail over your own common sense and judgement.
9. The Warhol Way: Capitalizing on Trends: Andy Warhol was a master of identifying and capitalizing on cultural trends, turning everyday objects like Campbell’s soup cans into iconic works of art.
Trading Lesson: Identifying and capitalizing on market trends is a key skill for traders. By staying attuned to economic indicators, news events, and market sentiment, traders can position themselves to profit from prevailing trends. Just as Warhol transformed ordinary objects into valuable art, traders can turn market movements into trading opportunities. Don’t fight the trends, it’s a losing battle you don’t want to be a part of. In the fast-paced world of trading, the ability to adapt to changing market conditions is vital. Put the ego aside, if the trade is going against your initial plan, close it, reevaluate, and make proper adjustments.
If you made it all the way here, we would like to thank you for taking the time and reading our write-up all the way and we hope you have a wonderful trading week ahead!
USD/CHF: detailed chart breakdown. Where are we headed next?After breaking out of the ascending channel that we have identified on the graph, the price has been impulsing towards the upside ever since. At the moment, we might infer how a crucial area of resistance has been reached and we are expecting for some correctional moves | pullbacks to kick in from here and drive the price towards the downside in the middle run.
Our target zone is the region of previous resistance that is now acting as support that nicely aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level identified by connecting the beginning and the (probable) end of the ongoing Weekly-timeframe wave of impulses.
Entry-wise, we will zoom into lower-timeframe graphs such as the Daily and the H16, observe the price development, and wait for our criteria to get fulfilled before we enter positions and aim for targeting a 1:4 - 1:5 risk-reward execution.
USDC/CHF: bullish moves will most likely continue As it can be inferred from the Weekly-timeframe graph, the price has broken out of the descending trendline that is plotted on the chart that lines up with the previous Lower Low region.
From here, we are expecting for the price to continue moving in the upward destination and, potentially, reaching the upcoming resistance level indicated on the graphic.
USD/CHF: are we witnessing a trend change or a fake breakout?Looking at the Weekly-timeframe development on USDCHF, it can be examined that the current Weekly candle has broken above the previous Lower Low region lining up with the descending trend-line connecting three Lower High tops.
If the Weekly candle manages to close above the penetrated resistance level, we will look into going long and aiming for the upside.
On the other hand, if a massive wick candle is printed and the price closes below the same resistance zone, our bias will remain bearish.
All in all, let's observe how the price develops and derive logical conclusions based on that.
Impact of FAA Regulations and Rumors in Aerospace Stock TradingInvesting in aerospace-related stocks can be a lucrative endeavor due to the industry's potential for growth and innovation. You may find a lot of long-term investors holding major airline stocks (especially, positions added during COVID lows) and relatively new aerospace startups. However, it is essential to closely monitor and consider the impact of Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) regulations and even rumors on their investment decisions even if you’re not day trading these stocks. In this article, we explore real-life examples of how FAA regulations have negatively affected the stock prices of companies in the aerospace sector, highlighting the crucial role of monitoring and reacting to regulatory developments.
Example #1. FAA Limits on Flight Numbers and the Plunge in US Airline Stocks:
The FAA recently imposed restrictions on the number of flights to alleviate pressure on the national airspace. While this regulation aims to enhance safety and efficiency, it has directly impacted US airline stocks, such as American Airlines (AAL). Airlines faced reduced capacity and higher operational costs. This resulted in decreased revenue and profitability, causing a sharp decline in American Airlines' stock price. Investors who were not prepared for this regulatory change suffered losses. However, in reality this has been a topic of conversation since April, so the late June announcement shouldn’t have caught anybody by surprise. If taken proper measures, the positions might have been cashed out at July highs until the FAA inevitable reduces the geography of this regulation. Which it already started as of 3-4 weeks ago, meaning we can expect a retracement soon.
Example #2. Minimum Flight Time Requirements and the Struggles of EVTOL Companies:
FAA regulations now require small aircraft, including Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing (EVTOL) vehicles, to have a minimum flight time of 30 minutes. This regulation has posed significant challenges for EVTOL companies like Joby Aviation, as battery technology limitations make meeting this requirement very difficult. For instance, even industry leaders like Joby Aviation, despite its high potential, faced setbacks due to the FAA's minimum flight time regulation. The company's stock price suffered as investors became wary of the challenges presented by battery size limitations amid this new requirement.
Some other example of FAA regulations impacting aerospace stocks include:
1. Noise Restrictions: Recent FAA regulations aimed at reducing aircraft noise levels have affected companies specializing in quieter aviation technologies.
2. Safety Mandates: Stricter safety regulations have led to increased research and development costs for aerospace companies, impacting their profitability.
3. Environmental Regulations: Regulations promoting sustainable aviation and reducing carbon emissions have influenced aerospace companies' strategies, causing fluctuations in their stock performance.
As you may see FAA regulations have a substantial and immediate impact on the stock prices of companies in the aerospace sector. However, this analogy was just an example because of my personal interest as a PhD in Aerospace Engineering and investor into several aerospace stocks. In reality, when trading/investing you should always stay up to date with regulations imposed by your governing body (food or pharmacy should watch out for FDA and so on). Knowledge is power, dear community members. So stay alert and informed in any comfortable way for you. Some like to watch Bloomberg, some read yahoo finance. In reality, you can substitute that by reading through some of the deep good breakdowns by fellow TradingView writers. Make the most out of it!
BITCOIN(BTC/USD): targeting $13k - $14k as our next destination?As it can be inferred from the Monthly timeframe graph, the price of Bitcoin has rejected the area of resistance located at the $30-31K price region that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the 04/2022 - 12/2022 bearish run.
Hence, judging by the formation, we remain positive about the fact that the price might experience further drop and reach new low levels.
USD/CHF: a textbook pattern has been formed. What is next?As it can be inferred from the 2D-timeframe development on USD/CHF, the price has been trading within the borders of the descending parallel channel that is illustrated on the graph. Hence, our sentiment is bearish.
After witnessing some price development (printing wick candles and showing signs of a bearish reversal), the market tricked sellers into making executions, after which a massive bullish candle rushed towards the upside and wiped out the early bears.
According to our technical analysis, we are expecting for bearish moves to resume from here on and reach the target zone that has been mapped on the graphic in the middle to long run.
Avoid getting trapped and hunted by market sharks!Stop Loss Hunt, Liquidity Sweep, Market Manipulation - all of these are fancy names of a highly frequent act performed by big sharks of the market to target the retailers.
- "Oh, do you think they care about my 0.01 lot size?"
Individually, not.
In big volumes, yes.
Textbook chart patterns that are so prominent to us are all subject to going through a liquidation phase. Hence, let's look at some graphical examples that will also be supported by real-market instances:
1) "Head&Shoulders" liquidation
Upon forming a right shoulder and showing initial bearish moves, market participants tend to execute short positions and place their Stop Loss order above the freshly formed shoulder. In that case, there is a high probability that the price will get driven towards the Stop Loss pool, grab liquidity, then continue impulsing in the pre-determined destination.
A live-market example: EUR/GBP Daily Timeframe (period: 28/06/2023 - 16/08/2023)
2) Double Top liquidation
Similar to the previous point, upon forming two tops/heads/reversal points, the price shows some bearish moves and invites sellers to take action before we witness the price impulse towards the upside and grab liquidity where masses have set their Stop Loss levels before resuming its bearish moves
A live-market example: USD/CHF Weekly Timeframe (period: 09/05/2022 - 07/11/2022)
3) Parallel Channel liquidation
Trading within two boundaries of a parallel channel, oftentimes, we may witness how wick spikes are printed and liquidity is grabbed.
A live-market example: USD/CHF Weekly Timeframe (period: 16/01/2023 - 21/08/2023)
4) Ranging Market liquidation
Being stuck in a sideways-moving liquidation box, it is commonly evident how the price triggers the sea of retail Stop Loss orders to both sides of the rectangle with a sole purpose of taking out early entrants before moving in the pre-orchestrated destination.
A live-market example: USD/CHF 8H Timeframe (period: 16/06/2023 - 10/07/2023)
To put all in a nutshell, be careful in order to not fall into the Liquidity Aquarium.
EUR/GBP: a structured technical examination. What is next?As it can be observed from the DAILY timeframe chart on EURGBP, the sentiment of the market is bearish.
After printing a Head&Shoulders pattern and grabbing liquidity above the right shoulder of it, the price experienced a massive drop and is now sitting on a key zone of support.
From here, we are expecting for some correctional moves to happen before the bearish wave resumes and drives the price towards the downside according to the overall bias.
To catch the pullback/correction, we are eyeing the zone below the local support level for BUY entries.
Why?
Since one of our entry criteria is waiting for the price to grab liquidity and gain momentum before making executions with an attempt of catching the pre-start of the move in the pre-determined direction, we believe that we could witness a quick dip into the 0.85100-0.85150 region to take out early participants before charging up for the potentially upcoming short-term bullish moves.
Target-wise, we will be aiming for the zone of previous support that is now acting as resistance that is highlighted on the graphic. To add another confluence, using the Fibonacci tool to preliminarily identify the end of the impulse at our potential entry zone, we might notice how the 50% level nicely lines up with the resistance zone that we are eyeing as our target in the short to middle run.
EUR/USD: have we reached another turning point?From the Daily-timeframe perspective, it might be observed that the price is bouncing off the ascending trend-line that has been portrayed on the graph; and looking at the historical price action, it can be noticed that upon reaching this specific up-trending zone, the price has been able to bounce off and impulse towards the upside. Hence, we remain positive that the local zone that we have marked may serve as the basis of the potentially upcoming bullish run.
As for the target, the up-trending diagonal | the upper barrier of the rising channel may be considered as the long-term TP zone. The liquidation zone (SL), on the other hand, might be set below the local key zone of support that we are eyeing as our entry zone.
Wishing everyone a productive trading week!
12 Habits of a Successful TraderHey, TradingView community! In this article we are going to go over 12 things that complete our trading style here at Investroy. Navigating in financial markets can be highly rewarding, but it also comes with its fair share of challenges and risks. Successful traders are not only armed with a deep understanding of market dynamics but also possess certain habits that contribute to their consistent success. Whether you're a novice or a seasoned trader, incorporating these habits into your trading routine can significantly enhance your chances of achieving your financial goals. Without further due, let's get started!
1. Continuous Learning: Successful traders are lifelong learners. They dedicate time to stay updated with the latest market trends, economic news, and trading strategies. They are open to learning from both their successes and failures, constantly refining their skills to adapt to changing market conditions.
2. Disciplined Approach: Discipline is the cornerstone of successful trading. Establishing a well-defined trading plan, setting clear entry and exit points, and adhering to them helps traders avoid emotional decisions driven by fear or greed.
3. Risk Management: Prudent risk management is non-negotiable for successful traders. They never risk more than a small percentage of their trading capital on a single trade. This approach safeguards their accounts from catastrophic losses and allows them to weather market fluctuations.
4. Patience Pays Off: Impulsive trading rarely leads to success. Successful traders exercise patience, waiting for high-probability trade setups that align with their strategy. This prevents them from overtrading and falling into traps set by the market's volatility.
5. Emotional Control: Controlling emotions like fear and greed is a critical habit. Successful traders remain level-headed, even in the face of unexpected market moves. They make decisions based on analysis and logic rather than succumbing to emotional impulses.
6. Adaptability: Markets are dynamic, and successful traders know how to adapt. They recognize that what works in one market condition might not work in another. Being flexible and open to adjusting their strategies helps them stay ahead of changing trends.
7. Journaling and Analysis: Keeping a trading journal is a habit embraced by top traders. They meticulously record their trades, including entry and exit points, reasoning, and outcomes. Regularly reviewing this journal helps them identify patterns, strengths, and weaknesses, facilitating continuous improvement.
8. Mindfulness and Self-Care: Trading can be stressful, and successful traders prioritize self-care. Engaging in activities like exercise, meditation, and spending quality time with loved ones helps them maintain a healthy work-life balance and reduces burnout.
9. Long-Term Perspective: Successful traders don't get discouraged by short-term setbacks. They have a long-term perspective and focus on consistent, incremental growth. This perspective helps them navigate through losses and keeps them motivated during winning streaks.
10. Cultivating a Growth Mindset: Successful traders embrace challenges as opportunities for growth. They see losses as lessons rather than failures and are always seeking ways to improve. This growth mindset helps them adapt to changing markets and fosters resilience in the face of setbacks.
11. Diversification: Top traders don't put all their eggs in one basket. They diversify their portfolio across different assets and industries, reducing the impact of a single market's volatility on their overall capital.
12. Position Sizing: Successful traders adjust their position sizes according to market conditions. During high volatility, they reduce their position sizes to manage risk, while during calmer periods, they may increase exposure (within 1-2% obviously).
Becoming a successful trader requires more than just understanding market mechanics. It's about cultivating the right habits that promote discipline, continuous learning, and emotional resilience. By incorporating these 12 habits into your trading routine, you'll be better equipped to navigate the complex world of trading and increase your chances of achieving your financial goals.
EUR/GBP: detailed chart analysis. Where can we go short from?Conducting a thorough examination on the H16-timeframe graph, the following points could be observed:
- The price action is looking wonderful
- The sentiment of the market is bearish
- The chances of getting further downside moves upon a pullback are high
And hence, we are interested in catching entries and riding the potentially upcoming bearish wave.
As it can be observed from the plotting and sketching done on the graph, the ascending trend-line that we have located has been penetrated but not re-touched yet. The re-touch point of the trend-line aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level identified from the recent impulse. Hence, we are expecting for the price to perform one more probable re-test of the zone that we have circled on the chart and complete the correctional move before resuming its bearish moves towards the downside and possibly reaching the target area that we have mapped on the graphic.