Not a Top, AI Immergence, Microsoft Run to $121 this Summer. . .I wouldn't believe it myself if I wasn't writing about it, but MSFT still has some room to run.
Microsoft's story and technicals favor upward movement these next few months.
Thanks for lending your attention!
MSFT is printing an ascending triangle with previous highs in the upper USD $97's, but when price breaks up those levels won't provide much resistance - more on that later.
For now, let's talk about Microsoft's direction as a company. CEO Satya Nadella understands the importance of Web 3.0 and 4.0 and sees the immediate future of computing lies in cloud services, Infrastructure as a Service (I.a.a.S) systems, and Internet of Things (I.o.T) technology and connectivity.
In Q4 2017, Microsoft was already taking market share from the undisputed giant in the space - Amazon Web Services (A.W.S) - with their initiative to expand and improve their Azure cloud platform. Microsoft is pushing efforts to recruit development talent to Azure and onboard more users with improvements and expansions of the platform.
Nadella and Microsoft also understand the revolutionary implications of Web 4.0 and what role AI will play in a "smart Internet". Data and connectivity will be king as AI systems facilitate the wholesale immergence of automation into the human experience, and Microsoft's decision to steer initiative away from products like Windows and into projects like AI development will pay off as automation and I.o.T become a part of everyday life just as Microsoft's operating systems became a part of everyday life back in the 90's.
Shifting focus to the technicals, MSFT is tracing an ascending triangle that is approaching an apex. Price moves follow compressing ranges, and the direction is looking up. The chart shows high volume on the dips in the triangle, indicating buyers are scooping up what they perceive as cheap shares.
Looking way back on a monthly chart, we can see similar price action in 1999 to what we see so far in 2018 - and that means we may not be at a top just yet.
Mimicking 1999's chart would mean bad times long-term, but in the short-term would mean a run in price over the summer and possibly through the end of the year with prices putting in a top sometime in the next few months. I believe this price action meshes well with MSFT's endeavors - shifting focus away from Windows and into I.a.a.S and Azure as well as AI, automation, and I.o.T technology. This shift may put pressure on stock price in the next couple years, but in the short-term, Microsoft might have a relative top ultimately 25%-30% higher than today's prices.
Microsoft could be cheap right now given historical price action, current technicals, and the overall story of the company. I believe Microsoft hasn't put in its highs of the year just yet; the summer and fall could see MSFT in the USD $120's.
I'm still bullish on certain sectors and certain stocks, but in the world's precarious geopolitical and financial environment, I keep some puts on the market and recommend traders and investors alike be prepared for a transition into a bearish paradigm. Be ready for sudden drops in the market. Let profits run, look for good stories and charts, but don't be afraid to take some off the table if you've got good numbers on paper.
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Thanks again!
See it on the site: holsturr.com/category/markets/charts/
** For speculative and research purposes only - good luck! **
IOT
IOTA BreakdownA little late on the IOTA train, but here are the support/resistance lines I drew out. In my opinion, a major breakout looks like it could be taking place, especially if you look at the 1-day chart. I would keep my eye on this one and expect a drop down to key support levels (grey rectangle) and then a spike up to $2.90.
Time to buy IOTAI think that IOTAETH found a good support at 50% Fibonacci level, also 50EMA is going to cross 200EMA, which is strong bullish signal. We can make some purchases at this levels (0.0028-0.0030). Profit targets can be placed at 0.005 (70% of position) and 0.0067 levels (20-30% of position).
IOT (IOTA) downtrend revealing a beauty of channelsAs noted in my previous IOTUSD analysis on the 4H IOT (IOTA) liberating from BTC , the downtrend resistance (further solid green bold) acted very strong in the latest price follow through. A boring side move-out of that resistance from Apr-02 to Apr-12, though luckily confirmed as support at Apr-04, while sametime stealth-like playing under the 100% retracement, is now opening us a new view of support/resistance channels (blue solid and dashed sub-channels).
Since begin of March the whole 200 EMA (purple curve) southside action can be viewed as a cup&handle formation (yellow arcs), which got tested exactly at the 200 EMA resistance (Apr-13), broken up with volume (Apr-14) and confirmed as new support (Apr-16). Nicely, we now also see a resistance/rejection at the sub-channel mirroring (dashed blue) as a perfect range reflection of the last 3 months price action to the upside.
Technical targets with nice confluences (green cross):
- Cup&Handle follow through: $2.10
- Fib 78% restracement: $2.10
- Same time with the new entered channel resistance blue at $2.10 (which would extendedly play out at Apr-26)
As I overall don't yet see any convincing sign of an "ALT season" start, uncoupling strongly from Bitcoin/BTC major market(& sentiment) leader, we need to consider also some potentials to the downside. Thus I added also a formation of a potential H&S playout in the next days (grey letters and grey triangles), which also has credence within the leading channels:
- a completion of that small inside pattern would lead us down to retest the edge of the the current upbroken macro channel (grey cross), which would also better confirm this as new support
- a then subsequent uptest of the support/resistance-confirmed sub-channel (dashed blue) and the 200 EMA could totally lead out and morph the cup&handle into a larger inverse H&S pattern ! (light added red arc)
IOT-USD 10-Day-Ahead Prediction - 04/10-04/19 PeriodArtificial Intelligence/Deep Learning Enabled 10 Day Ahead Predicted values for IOTA (IOT) have been plotted on the chart.
The method used in this prediction is Deep Learning based, and using complex mathematical models/methodologies to extract hidden time series features in vast amounts of IOT related data.
The expected 5 Day Change is 6.087 %
The expected 10 Day Change is 9.565 %
Predictability Indicator is calculated as : 0.880
Predicted 10-Day Ahead Prices are as follows:
Tue Apr 10 Wed Apr 11 Thu Apr 12 Fri Apr 13 Sat Apr 14
1.0854 1.0971 1.1064 1.1147 1.1245
Sun Apr 15 Mon Apr 16 Tue Apr 17 Wed Apr 18 Thu Apr 19
1.1330 1.1407 1.1478 1.1545 1.1613
You can see our previous predictions on the same chart highlighted green for IOT ;)
Please note that outliers/non-linearities might occur, however our Artificial Intelligence/Deep Learning Enabled predictions indicate the softened/smoothed moving direction of the stocks/commodities/World indices/ETFs/Foreign Currencies/Cryptocurrencies.
Feel free to contact us for your questions.
IOT (IOTA) liberating from BTC dominance?After retesting the fib 100% retracement IOTA cautiously seems to confirm a bottom at $1 .
Obervations adding credence are:
- volume picking up at the full retrace retest
- IOTA acting as the seemingly only exception in all over cryptos BTCUSD price correlation
> uncoupling contrariwise since several days / missing out the March 16-17 down extension of all other crypto
- stair stepping long term downtrend resistances (green dashed light, green solid light)
Key resistances to keep your eye out:
- uncorrected "bubble" macro downtrend resistance (green solid bold) right ahead at $1.50
- 200 EMA at $1.60 (dark rose) - provided weak support = weaker resistance now
- 78% fib retracement at $2.10
- macro LOGARITHMIC channel switch in my related IOTUSD idea, resisting also at $1.50 see:
Hope for IOTA?IOTA has disappointed investors waiting for some semblance of a recovery. It is currently solidly down trending, haven given up the $1.30 handle entirely. If we can manage to break $1.37, we’ll face resistance at $1.435 and $1.44, which seems light years away. At $1.20, we’ll find support, then there is a vacuum zone to $1.02, which seems to correspond with the $1 psychological mark. It is worth noting that we have broken the lower bound of the corrective phase of the previous Elliott Wave , which implies an extension of this phase. The Kovach Momentum Indicators are very bearish as one could expect. We have been pressing the lower bound of the KRI for some time now.
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IOTA RangingIOTA joins the rest of the cryptocurrencies who insist upon ranging. This is a frustration to investors waiting for some semblance of a recovery. IOTA currently seems to be facing resistance 1.37, and may be giving up the $1.30 handle entirely. It seems to be settling on the range between $1.20 and $1.37. If we break out to the upside, we must punch through $1.435 and $1.44. Then there is a relative vacuum zone to $1.53. If not, $1.37 will provide support, and then the lower $1.20's. It is worth noting that we have broken the lower bound of the corrective phase of the previous Elliott Wave, which implies an extension of this phase. The Kovach Momentum Indicators do not suggest that this is likely any time soon.
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IOTA Finds SupportIOTA too has remained range bound, currently testing the upper level of this range near $2. Like the other cryptos, IOTA could really use a burst of momentum to confirm entry into wave 3 of the impulse of the Elliott Wave. The central moving average of the KRI continues to provide support around $1.92. Other levels of support include $1.95, $1.78, then $1.60, and finally we have $1.45, a Fibonacci level. The psychological $2 level is the most important level to the upside. We must break it before we hit $2.20, after which, there is a relative vacuum zone until $2.25.
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IOTA... SighIt has demolished levels of support to press the lower bound of the KRI with a vengeance. IOTA has long given up its range between $1.84 and $1.92, plummeting to the $1.20's. IOTA is currently sitting at $1.23, just above strong support at $1.21 and $1.20. It is worth noting that we have broken the lower bound of the corrective phase of the previous Elliott Wave, which implies an extension of this phase. If sentiment turns bullish, we must punch through a vacuum zone to $1.37, $1.44, and $1.45. But it will take a great deal of momentum for such a drive. The Kovach Momentum Indicators do not suggest that this is likely any time soon.
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IOTA PummeledIt has been characteristic of IOTA to be hit hard during bad times, but react less bullishly to good times. This trend has continued as IOTA seems to be hanging onto the lower bound of the KRI at $1.50 by a thread. IOTA has long given up its range between $1.84 and $1.92, plummeting to support at $1.36 or so, before regaining footing. We'll have support from $1.42 and $1.45 if needed. We have resistance from above at nested Fibonacci levels at $1.67, and $1.72. We'll run into further resistance at $1.78 and $1.84. The upper bound of the former range will also offer resistance at $1.92 and $1.95, but we appear to be pretty far from considering this. The psychological $2 level is the most important level to the upside. We must break it before we hit $2.20, after which, there is a relative vacuum zone until $2.25.
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IOTA SmashedIOTA has given up its range between $1.84 and $1.92, plummeting to support from the lower bound of the KRI at $1.61, but recovering ever so slightly to $1.67. What were once levels from below now provide resistance at $1.78 and $1.84. The upper bound of the range will also offer resistance at $1.92 and $1.95, but we appear to be pretty far from considering this. The psychological $2 level is the most important level to the upside. We must break it before we hit $2.20, after which, there is a relative vacuum zone until $2.25. Currently, $1.62 will provide support, but beyond that we have $1.45, a Fibonacci level.
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IOTA RangingIOTA too has edged downward but maintained the range between $1.84 and $1.92. It is currently finding support at the central moving average of the KRI, at $1.89. IOTA is definitely lagging with regard to the strong momentum other altcoins have seen recently. It could really use a burst of momentum to confirm entry into wave 3 of the impulse of the Elliott Wave. Other levels of support include $1.84, $1.78, then $1.62, and finally we have $1.45, a Fibonacci level. We have $1.95 offering resistance from above. The psychological $2 level is the most important level to the upside. We must break it before we hit $2.20, after which, there is a relative vacuum zone until $2.25.
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