IOTUSD: Falling Wedge cracked below. Expecting a 1W support testThe 1D Falling Wedge broke downwards (RSI = 34.753, MACD = -0.020, Highs/Lows = -0.0276, B/BP = -0.0673) and a test of the 0.4039 Support is necessary to provide the next pattern. That will most likely be a Channel Down on 1D (blue dotted channel) that can extend up to 0.3199 as part of the Lower Low process. The overall long term trend remains bearish (1W RSI = 38.183, grey channel) and so do we on IOTUSD with TP = 0.3199, 0.1459.
IOTUSD
IOTUSD: Falling Wedge near its bearish break-out. Still short.ioThe previous Descending Triangle on 1D has been discontinued as the price broke and remains below the 0.4978 support. As a result a Falling Wedge has emerged on 1D (RSI = 39.630, MACD = -0.018, Highs/Lows = -0.0063, B/BP = -0.0270) which should break towards the end of October and test the 0.4040 1W support. With 1W though still on a long term bearish pattern (MACD = -0.307, Highs/Lows = -0.0515), the 0.3200 November 02, 2017 should be tested. We remain bearish on IOTUSD with TP = 0.3199, 0.1459 (long term).
IOTA fractal,Could it, Again, Really? I just had to show this fractal because the similarities are just quite amazing. The from 2017 took about 4 months, this one is around 2.5 months. The volume picture is different but we are in a different market than last time. But to be honest, Bitcoin is still in very dangerous territory so i am not that confident if the same will happen again. Maybe if the price gets above the 0.60ish i might start to believe it.
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Previous analysis:
IOTUSD: Support and Triangle broken. Short.The 1D Descending Triangle broke on IOTA as the 0.4980 Support was crossed (RSI = 42.370, MACD = -0.025, Highs/Lows = -0.0164, B/BP = -0.0387). We have a Channel Down in its early stages and the commanding long term bearish trend on 1W (Highs/Lows = -0.0606, MACD = -0.309, RSI = 39.391) should sell every spike below 0.5800. We are still bearish on the long term with our TP = 0.3199, 0.1459 intact.
IOTA: Long Term BuyIOTA dipped recently, tested support at a $0.4951, the 0.236 Fibonacci level, and has since rebounded. This has come one level off from our original assessment: that we'd see a dip to the lower anchor at $0.3440 to properly bottom out, then rebound back to current levels or above them.
Indeed, most cryptos have appeared to have bottomed out, and IOTA may be no exception. But we are still trepidatious at this point, because the hard lower bound for IOTUSD seems to be $0.40 for now. There appear to be two highly probable situations. First, we see IOTUSD collapsing further to test $0.40, before rebounding as we had hinted before. We also could see it break out further from current levels. If this is the case, we could easily retest $0.5886, before making a run for the $0.60 handle. Either way, IOTA seems like it is highly likely to return to the upper $0.50 handle soon, though the large wick on today's candle is somewhat foreboding as it indicates we are having difficulty sustaining today's highs.
IOTUSD - 65% Countercyclical Long Trade?Hello traders, I'm back!
Well its been a while since my last post. I've been working on some exciting new projects since January of this year ;) It was timely, as the market tanked shortly after (oops!), and it turned into a shorter's game (and that's been fun!). I didn't want to bother you guys with my short selling, as I know most of you are long traders, so I took a pause.
Anyway, I took a peak at the markets this morning and figured its an interesting time to return to TradingView and continue posting educational takes on the market.
What do we see?
The crypto market is widely oversold, and if we take a look at altcoins like IOTA its clear that a rebound is near.
- Volume profile is shrinking on our bottom indicator
- RSI and MFI are showing bullish divergence
- And we are far below EMA50 on the 3D!
How do we trade this?
Usually altcoins extend all the way down to the 0.11 fibo or even further (measured from the top and bottom of the previous major bull run). Once this is over, there is usually an opportunity to ride some of the market making by watching a breach of the 0.11 fibo to the upside. This is normally followed by a rally to the .618 (measured from the top and bottom of the previous local sell off). So we have:
- Bullish confirmation above $0.76 USD
- TP level around or below $1.29 USD
;)
***This is not investment advice and is simply an educational analysis of the market and/or pair. By reading this post you acknowledge that you will use the information here at YOUR OWN RISK
IOTA: Another Prediction ValidatedWe've been on a roll lately with our prediction accuracy for cryptocurrencies. We were certainly correct in identifying the rout that has underpinned IOTA for almost the entirety of 2018. It does appear we were a bit too ambitious with our final target to the downside at 0.3440, which corresponds to our lower Fibonacci anchor. However, the price did hit our first profit target exactly as we've identified it. Indeed, as promised, IOTA collapsed down to 0.495, the 0.236 Fibonacci level.
Our outlook on IOTA is still bearish, though we do anticipate some ranging or even a retracement before the bear momentum continues. Long term, we hold true to our prediction. Upon reaching our final price target, we should anticipate a buyback, which may take us back to P1. If we can muster the energy to reach 0.6641, the 50% Fibonacci level, we can safely call this bear run over (for a while), but there is little indication of that happening any time soon.
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Little Hope for IOTAWhen looking at a chart of IOTA against the US Dollar, there is very little to give bulls any hope. This coin has almost completely retraced its value returning to pre-bubble 2017 levels. It's amazing to reflect on the fact that earlier this year, IOTA was in the $2 handle and some had double digit price targets in mind. But even the most exuberant bulls have faded from the scene since IOTA has retreated to a fraction of its value at that time. The technicals are extremely foreboding. Volatility has dropped off effectively to zero, breaking down to further establish new lows. One may anticipate a breakdown or breakout with confidence.
As we can see, throughout this year, we've seen nothing but a solid downtrend. IOTA has been under its 100 day MA for some time now, finding support at the moment from the 50 day SMA. We appear to have a bear flag forming, and if it breaks down from here, we can expect to test pre bubble levels. Our Fibonacci retracement levels were anchored last year, but have provided very valuable insights that still hold true today. Currently, IOTA is at about 0.5963, clinging to support from the 0.382 Fibonacci level, which corresponds to the 50 period SMA. This should provide ample support, but another push to the downside could bring us down to the 0.236 Fibonacci level at 0.495, then we have the lower Fibonacci anchor 0.3440. Although this does appear to be the lower bound the market will expect for IOTA, we do anticipate that it will revert to this point before moving forward again.
If IOTA is able to make another bull run, it will face resistance from the 0.500 Fibonacci retracement level at 0.664. The next Fibonacci level (0.618) at 0.74 also corresponds with the 100 day SMA, so it should provide tremendous resistance. Don't expect IOTA to break through this level any time soon.
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IOTUSD: Triangle extension. Approaching a break-out. Short.IOTA is practically extending the sideways trading within the 1D Triangle (RSI = 52.718), still on Lower Highs, resisted at 0.6500 by the 1W Channel Down (RSI = 40.817, MACD = -0.299, Highs/Lows = -0.0201, B/BP = -0.3135). Besides the obvious scalping within the Triangle, which is a short term trading opportunity, we remain bearish on the long run with TP = 0.3199, 0.1459.
Still on Lower Highs but still waiting for support break-out.iotIOTA is still on Lower Highs within the 1W Channel Down (MACD = -0.294, Highs/Lows = -0.0836, B/BP = -0.04041) but still supported above 0.4978, which has created a strong 1D Triangle (neutral RSi, ADX, CCI, Highs/Lows). This is approaching its completion and we are expecting a break-out to the downside soon, so we are keeping our short positioning (TP = 0.3199, 0.1459).
Contained below the 1D Resistance. Wait for support break-out.IOTUSD has restrained the upside attempts below the 0.6700 Resistance on 1D (RSI = 43.266, MACD = -0.003, Highs/Lows = 0) and the 1W Channel Down (MACD = -0.289, Highs/Lows = -0.1279, B/BP = -0.4062) remains valid. 0.500 is the current support and if crossed we will see an aggressive drop to the November 02, 2017 low = 0.3199 which is our first TP. 0.1459 remains the extension.