(MGX)Metagenomi, Inc.: A Genetic Medicine Powerhouse on the RiseNASDAQ:MGX
here's an analysis of Metagenomi, Inc.: Chart Data is limited..
Financial Performance:
Market Cap: $456.337 million
Previous Close: $12.25
52 Week Range: $9.74 - $12.74
Volume: 392,654
Avg. Volume: 1,187,350
Recent News:
Introduction:
In the dynamic realm of genetic medicine, where breakthroughs hold the promise of revolutionizing healthcare, one company stands out for its pioneering efforts and recent market buzz – Metagenomi, Inc. With a low share price and a scorching-hot market for gene research, investors are eyeing Metagenomi with keen interest. Let's delve into the company's profile, recent developments, and the compelling reasons why it might just be the next big investment opportunity.
Company Overview:
Metagenomi, Inc., headquartered in Emeryville, California, emerges as a leading player in the gene editing biotechnology sphere. Established in 2016, Metagenomi is dedicated to developing therapeutics using its proprietary metagenomics-derived genome editing toolbox. This arsenal comprises programmable nucleases, base editors, and RNA/DNA-mediated integration systems, positioning the company at the forefront of genetic medicine innovation.
Recent IPO and Insider Trading:
A recent initial public offering (IPO) catapulted Metagenomi into the spotlight, with 6,250,000 shares of common stock issued at a public offering price of $15.00 per share. Additionally, insider trading activity has surged, with Novo Holdings A/S, a notable insider, acquiring a significant stake of 900,000 shares at a price of $14.47 per share. This insider confidence underscores Metagenomi's potential and serves as a bullish indicator for prospective investors.
Financial Performance and Market Positioning:
Despite its relatively modest market capitalization of $456.337 million, Metagenomi boasts a compelling growth trajectory. Recent financial data indicates a positive momentum, with total revenue reaching $37.952 million, signaling robust demand for the company's innovative genetic therapies. Furthermore, the company's strategic collaborations with industry giants like ModernaTX, Inc. and Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. underscore its market credibility and growth potential.
Gene Research Revolution:
Metagenomi's strategic focus on precision genetic medicines aligns perfectly with the burgeoning gene research revolution. As the healthcare landscape increasingly gravitates towards personalized therapies and gene editing technologies, Metagenomi stands poised to capitalize on this paradigm shift. The convergence of cutting-edge science, favorable regulatory tailwinds, and heightened investor interest in genetic medicine positions Metagenomi as a prime beneficiary of the gene research boom.
Investment Considerations:
While Metagenomi's low share price and the red-hot gene research market present compelling investment opportunities, prudent investors must weigh certain considerations. The biotechnology sector inherently entails high risk and volatility, with clinical trial outcomes, regulatory approvals, and competitive dynamics exerting significant influence on stock performance. Additionally, Metagenomi's status as an early-stage company necessitates a long-term investment horizon and a tolerance for market fluctuations.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, Metagenomi, Inc. emerges as a compelling investment opportunity in the genetic medicine landscape. With a low share price, recent IPO buzz, and a strategic foothold in the gene research revolution, Metagenomi embodies the quintessential blend of innovation, potential, and market positioning. While investors must exercise due diligence and navigate the inherent risks of the biotechnology sector, Metagenomi's transformative vision and burgeoning market opportunities make it a stock worth watching and potentially adding to one's investment portfolio.
IPO
Datasea Inc. Shows Remarkable Growth in Q2 Fiscal Year 2024
Datasea Inc., ( NASDAQ:DTSS ) a leading global technology company specializing in intelligent acoustics and 5G multimodal communication, has reported stellar financial results for the second quarter ended December 31, 2023. The company's impressive performance underscores its strategic focus on innovation, market expansion, and customer-centric approach.
In the second quarter of fiscal year 2024, Datasea ( NASDAQ:DTSS ) recorded a substantial revenue of approximately $11.3 million, marking a remarkable surge compared to $0.1 million in the corresponding period last year. This phenomenal growth can be attributed to the robust expansion of its 5G multimodal communication business in China, where the company secured significant service agreements. Datasea's CEO, Zhixin Liu, emphasized the pivotal role played by the sales team in promoting products tailored to meet customer needs while continuously enhancing product quality and services.
The company's revenue for the first half of fiscal year 2024 soared to $18.2 million, compared to a mere $131,459 in the same period of the previous year, reflecting a staggering increase of 13,766.8%. This exponential growth underscores Datasea's leadership in the research and development of 5G multimodal communication technology. The sustained expansion of its customer base, coupled with proactive market promotion and exceptional customer support, has solidified its market positioning.
Datasea's ( NASDAQ:DTSS ) proactive measures to streamline administrative expenses have yielded positive results, with a 24.8% reduction in administrative costs compared to the same period last year. The company's prudent approach to managing accounts receivable, including strengthening credit evaluation processes and optimizing collection procedures, has led to a significant decrease in outstanding balances.
The company's operations update highlights its strategic initiatives aimed at leveraging acoustic intelligence and expanding its international footprint. Datasea's ( NASDAQ:DTSS ) intelligent acoustics products segment, driven by cutting-edge technology, addresses real-world challenges across various industries. The successful launch of air sterilization products in China and the ongoing development of new offerings underscore the company's commitment to providing innovative solutions for healthy living environments globally.
Datasea's ( NASDAQ:DTSS ) foray into the US market through its subsidiary, Datasea ( NASDAQ:DTSS ) Acoustics LLC, signifies a significant milestone in its expansion strategy. Collaborations with renowned research institutions and the pursuit of US patents underscore the company's commitment to technological innovation and intellectual property protection.
In the realm of 5G multimodal communication, Datasea ( NASDAQ:DTSS ) continues to pioneer advancements, offering a comprehensive product portfolio with high brand recognition. Strategic partnerships and agreements with key clients further reinforce the company's position as a market leader in this domain.
Looking ahead, Datasea ( NASDAQ:DTSS ) remains poised for sustained growth, driven by its relentless pursuit of technological excellence, market expansion initiatives, and strategic collaborations. With a solid foundation and a clear vision for the future, Datasea ( NASDAQ:DTSS ) is well-positioned to capitalize on emerging opportunities and deliver long-term value to its stakeholders.
In conclusion, Datasea's ( NASDAQ:DTSS ) remarkable financial performance and strategic initiatives underscore its position as a trailblazer in the technology landscape, poised for continued success in the dynamic global market.
IPO base break and base on base formationThe stock has been trading in a range since the last few months between 330-390 after breaking the IPO base
Company has issued a QIP at 341rs/share for 500cr and has a pending order book of 1000+cr and a new order worth 457cr and 16cr
a range break of 330-390 on the upside can take the stock up to 880 levels
i thought id be happy with $20 XRP, im adding another 0fib channels, cyclic lines plus fibonacci circles - who would of thought about this powerful combo.
alot is pointing towards a massive xrp movement soon:
- corrective fib circle
- fib channel support
- cyclic timeline balance
...its positioned for 2024 to moon
like i said i thought $20 would be a nice pump, if retail jumps in with the same vengeance as 2017 then this could absolutely rocket into triple digits.
expansion from a 6 year consolidation will absolutely melt faces
TSX IPOs: Dumping on Retail as a ServiceQ4 Inc listed at $12/share and raised $100 million when it IPO'd in 2021.
The lowest it went was $1.88/share.
Their latest play is....getting acquired for $6/share by a PE firm.
Only way to have made money on a bunch of these stocks and poorly-performing companies was to short right after IPO and to go long when they're 1/5th their IPO price until they're acquired.
SVRE: Restoring Balance Despite Market Volatility Despite a slew of safety improvements added to vehicles in the U.S. over the past 20 years – like forward collision warnings, emergency braking, lane departure warnings, blind spot detection, backup cameras, etc., nearly 43,000 people died in traffic accidents in 2022 in the U.S., up 30% from 2013.2 Experts agree that there is not one simple explanation for this apparent contradiction where we are driving safer vehicles and yet, traffic fatalities continue to climb. Some of the increase is simply driven by math, because while the U.S. population has grown by 5.4% over the past decade the number of registered vehicles in the U.S. has grown by over 16.8% during the same period. However, there has also been a notable increase in what the NHTSA calls “dangerous driving behaviors” – speeding, impaired driving, and failure to wear a seatbelt – which are pushing traffic fatalities up in the U.S.
Enter the SaverOne Solution
While protecting everyone on the roads from the dangers of distracted driving is an admirable goal, until legislation completely bars access to technology in our vehicles the reality is that economics will drive adoption of tools to prevent distracted driving. In the case of commercial fleets, think bus companies, trucking and delivery companies, the risk of litigation from a single distracted driver incident is so great, that these companies are looking for alternative solutions to eliminate a driver’s access to distracting phone apps. Again, while this technology largely exists in most phones, it requires the driver to actively opt-in, and in the case of commercial vehicles looking to mitigate liability risk, they want to remove the opt-in requirement and instead have a system that automatically limits a driver’s phone to only essential tools to prevent driver distraction.
SaverOne (NASDAQ:SVRE) has built its first commercial product to address just this need by detecting and locating a driver’s cell phone radiofrequency (RF) signal. The company’s first commercial product - an In-Cabin Driver Distraction Prevention Solution (DDPS) branded as the SaverOne system, can identify if a cell phone is in the vicinity of the driver’s seat and with the SaverOne App installed it will block access to the most distracting apps (social media/texting) while still allowing necessary apps like navigation and the ability to make hands-free phone calls. SaverOne is initially deploying this solution for the commercial market so companies operating commercial vehicles, buses, or vehicles provided to employees can mitigate their liability associated with distracted driving.
The company launched this product in 2019 in Israel with several pilot programs and as of August 2023 about 4,300 systems have been ordered and roughly 3,000 of these systems have been installed. The company released a second generation of the distracted driver protection solution in the fourth quarter of 2022, which will target the larger global auto market and in 2023 the company announced its first international sales. We believe that the company is still identifying the best distribution, installation, and marketing strategies for global markets.
Recent financial results and news:
In the first half of 2023, the company reported a sharp jump in year-over-year revenues to roughly $400k as the number of installed systems grew to 3,000 as of August 29, 2023 (up from 1,750 installed units as of 3/31/23). While this growth rate is impressive it is important to note that SaverOne is still a fairly small company and managing its growth as the company moves from initial pilot installations to full fleet installations will be a challenge. The company’s first-half operating loss of $4.8 million was due in large part to the $3.3 million R&D expenditure. The company has indicated that as it develops its OEM solution and VRU product R&D expenditures will likely remain elevated.
Other Notable Milestone:
- The company announced that Electra Afikim (a large public transportation company in Israel) would install the SaverOne System in its entire bus fleet representing roughly 1,200 vehicles, SaverOne’s largest order to-date.
- The company announced a meaningful expansion of its pilot projects outside of Israel with an additional pilot project on buses in the Gulf region; a second pilot project in the U.S.; and its first pilot in Europe.
- In 2022, the company entered into a memorandum of understanding with IVECO (one of the leading medium/heavy truck manufacturers in the world) to integrate its solution within IVECO trucks. This has the potential to be a game-changing agreement for the company based on IVECO’s size (producing over 150,000 vehicles annually).
IPO/Financing:
A little over a year ago, in June 2022, the company closed on its initial public offering of 2.94 million units (consisting of an ADS and one warrant to purchase an ADS) at a price of $4.13 per unit raising roughly $13 million in gross proceeds. Each ADS represents 5 shares of common stock.
In December 2022, the company completed a private placement of 0.8 million ADSs at $1.854 per ADS raising roughly $1.5 million in gross proceeds.
Closing Notes
SaverOne (NASDAQ:SVRE) is an emerging company addressing the challenging issue of cell phone device use inside a moving vehicle. Distracted driving continues to get worse around the globe despite numerous public awareness campaigns. Corporate fleets and commercial transportation companies need tools to limit distracted driving that operate seamlessly without requiring a driver to opt-in and that is the solution that SaverOne has brought to the market.
The opportunities in front of SaverOne as they expand into fleets, push into international markets, launch an OEM solution for car makers, and build a tool to protect Vulnerable Road Users will have to be weighed by investors against the dilution risk related to any pending financing.
There is no doubt that distracted driving remains a huge problem around the globe, but absent significant legislative action (the EU has recently enacted some distracted driving measures to be rollout over the next few years), the current half-hearted approach to the problem (relying on driver compliance) is likely going to be the default in most markets. As more advanced features are built into new vehicles, it is likely that adoption rates of Driver Distraction Prevention Solutions like those offered by SaverOne with grow.
SaverOne is an early-stage market entrant but if you are watching for next-generation safety solutions in the transportation market then you should have it on your radar.
Collective Audience, Inc. (NASDAQ:CAUD) Concludes IPOCollective Audience, Inc. (NASDAQ:CAUD), a leading provider of digital consumer acquisition solutions, announced its common stock has commenced trading today on the Nasdaq Global Market under the new ticker symbol - CAUD.
The commencement of trading on Nasdaq follows the completion of the business combination involving DLQ, Inc., a former subsidiary of Logiq, Inc (OTCQX: LGIQ) and with Abri SPAC I, Inc. (previously traded on Nasdaq as ASPA, ASPAW, ASPAU), a special purpose acquisition company, which Abri announced yesterday.
The newly combined company was renamed Collective Audience, Inc. to reflect its innovative performance marketing platform which has been designed to identify, convert and monetize the collective audience of leading brands and publishers.
About Collective Audience
Collective Audience is a U.S.-based provider of e-commerce and digital customer acquisition solutions that simplifies digital advertising. It provides data-driven, end-to-end marketing through its results solutions or access to data for activating campaigns across multiple channels.
The company’s digital marketing business includes a holistic, self-serve AdTech platform, a proprietary data-driven, AI-powered system that enables brands and agencies to advertise across thousands of the world’s leading digital media and connected TV platforms.
Patent Expirations And Competition May Limit ARM’s Market ShareKey points
1. ARM is a leader with a saturated number of customers limiting future growth.
It’s in a highly competitive landscape and needs to innovate beyond patent expirations in the 2030s.
2. As a controlled entity of SoftBank, I expect the board to push for buybacks in a bid to maximize returns.
3. I expect SoftBank to slowly unload its stake, while ARM buys back their stock - this may initially sustain the price.
Prospects Are Still Solid After IPO
ARM designs and licenses processors to manufacturers, it is the engineering company behind the world’s CPUs.
About 70% of the world’s population uses Arm-based products. More than 30 billion ARM-based chips (smartphones, small electronics, data centers, networking equipment) were shipped in FY '23, representing an approximately 70% increase since 2016.
Most of ARM’s IP sales are in the United States, however a good combined portion are in East Asia, including China (PRC), Taiwan and South Korea.
The business model of the company is to design ARM-chips and license them out to manufacturers. It sells the intellectual property behind chips, but doesn’t produce the hardware. This is an engineering-first company, with approximately 80% of global employees focused on research, design, and innovation. The company reaches scale with the ability to license out each CPU product to multiple companies.
ARM is a high performing company, with a gross margin of 80% and operating margins of 25%. The company made $2.7 billion in revenues in 2022 that stagnated in the IPO year.
Despite stagnating in its IPO year, it’s future prospects from here are still solid as demand for their IP continue to grow. But I don’t believe it’ll grow revenues as fast as analysts are expecting (14% per year).
ARM’s Market Share May Suffer As Patents Expire
Arm has an addressable market of $202.5 billion, and expects it to grow at a 6.8% annual rate to $246.6 billion by the end of 2025. The company estimates the aggregate value of chips containing Arm technology to be approx. $98.9 billion in 2022, representing 48.9% market share.
This market share is large even for a market leader. Competitors and expiring patents can become significant forces driving down the market share for ARM in the future. Notably most of the key ARM patents are expected to expire in the 2030s:
The expiration of these patents can open the door for more companies to design and manufacture ARM-based chips.
Limited New Customer Growth, But Opportunities in Smart Devices
More than 260 companies reported that they had shipped Arm-based chips in 2023, including:
Mobile computing: Apple, Guangdong OPPO, Samsung, Vivo Mobile, Xiaomi.
Cloud computing: AWS and Alibaba
Industrial IoT: Cruise and Mercedes-Benz, Raspberry Pi, Schneider Electric, and Siemens.
ARM also entered into a long-term agreement with Apple that extends beyond 2040 allowing the company to use Arm architecture for their CPUs.
The customer base for ARM is well established, and the company is at a phase where it will have a harder time acquiring new customers, rather it will have to rely on industry growth and innovation in order to increase revenue.
One of the highest-potential growth avenues for ARM is the smart devices vertical. ARM’s CPU architecture fits well in small devices, giving it an advantage over peers with larger CPUs. As compute power increases, it will become more practical for consumers to rely on mobile devices and wearables instead of larger devices for everyday needs, this has the potential to widen the TAM.
Another growth avenue for the company is the market adoption of electronically rich vehicles and EVs as well as the capitalizing on government programs subsidizing EVs. Vehicles have an increasing number of processing demands both in central systems, and IoT linked sensors.
Selling Pressure From SoftBank May Limit Price Appreciation
ARM is a controlled entity owned by SoftBank Group with approximately 90.6% of their outstanding ordinary shares following the completion ARMs IPO.
Arm’s Top Shareholders
ARM’s IPO is pushed by SoftBank who is looking to cash-in on their investment or escape with minimal losses. One scenario is to expect a continuous selling from SoftBank, which means that there may be selling pressure for some time keeping price appreciation moderate until the stock flips to a diversified investor base.
SN LongBought half size this afternoon as SN cleared a recent consolidation pivot after gapping up this morning. In a better environment, I'd have bought in full size today, but I'll look to hold and buy more if / when the stock reaches its debut-day high of $52.90 and the environment improves. Reasons for entry are simple... stock gapped up on earnings, pulled in and then gapped away again on even higher volume than the earnings day. It has continued to show solid volume patterns with volume surges accompanying big up days (including today) & had a nice volume dry-up leading into today's gap and push.
Stop is just below where a complete gap fill would occur. Will be looking to slide the stop up as soon as I can given the poor environment. Would like to see a big volume up day bring us back to the debut-day high to drag that anchored VWAP from the 9/11/23 gap up above my breakeven price.
🔥 ARM IPO: Worth the hype? Should I chase? What even is it?ARM DD:
Before you read this, understand that trying to buy IPOs when they begin trading isn't guaranteed and if you market buy, you will get roasted. It's not good to chase IPOs. No matter if this is the next NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:TSLA and NASDAQ:AMZN combined, do not chase and only make wise and calculated decisions while trading.
I've been waiting for this IPO for a while. It's finally here. It might be the most over anticipated IPO in a while. Trade carefully. Do not chase blindly. Have a plan. Trade the plan. If it doesn't come, move on.
If you learn something or want to trade with me, give me a follow & join my community. Thanks.
IPO valued @ $55B.
Around $51 per share.
They are only releasing 9% of the total shares to the public. So it has a tiny float.
SoftBank is the owner, they bought ARM 7 years ago.
The floor for me is 40B USD valuation. Meaning, around $38.50 is support. Where did I get that number? NVDA was closing on buying ARM for 40B USD in 2020.
NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:INTC , NASDAQ:AMD , NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:GOOG , TSM, Samsung, are all interested in investing in ARM.
What does ARM do?
ARM is not a chip manufacturer.
ARM designs chips & system processors & holds patents to chips and they license their technology to other big tech like AAPL, NVDA. Hence, NVDA wanted to buy them for 40B USD.
THE POSITIVES:
SoftBank bought out someone's 25% stake in ARM recently. For 16B USD. That puts it at a FWB:64B valuation in their eyes. That means the owner of ARM expects ARM to surpass 64B USD.
NVDA CEO loves ARM, but NVDA failed to acquire it.
NVDA CEO has been selling NVDA. Around 150k shares this year. Last sale 14M USD on 9/11/23. IMO he's freeing up to buy ARM @ IPO. Remember SoftBank is a 90% owner. Everyone who wants it gets it at IPO. Yes, even NVDA CEO.
The float is tiny, and asset managers .
NYSE:TSM expressed interest of 100M USD investment
This might be the most hyped IPO in a while.
THE NEGATIVES:
SoftBank is a known dumper.
SoftBank bought ARM in 2016 for $32B. They tried flipping it in 2020 for 40B USD to NVDA. So they were happy with a 8B flip USD in 4 years. Sus. Shows signs that if ARM does well, they'll unload.
Because SoftBank are known dumpers, once they dump one time, investors will get shook.
Their net income is low. Under 550M.
Their revenue is around $2.7B.
Their net income dropped YoY.
Again, I will evaluate if I'm buying this and post my entries/ exits in my community. Welcome to join.
Stay tuned.
ARM IPO- big price for questionable growthARM made .54 eps in 2022 and .51 eps in 2023. at 51 cents eps, its 124 PE.
Revenue per share current is 2.60 revenue per share, giving a price to sales over 20 PS.
Its unclear if ARM is growing sales and earnings at a rate that justifies the current premium.
Possible multiples examples:
if pe goes to:
20pe x .51 = 10.20
30pe x .51 =15.30
40pe x .51= 20.40
so clearly there is some high growth rate implied at the current price.
Implied growth rate is in the 30% to 60 % annual growth range.
If its not a grower, is it priced as a tech hedge? in case other firms buy it?
From a value and growth investor perspective, the math doesnt add up.
ARM: Be careful chasing hot IPOs.NASDAQ:ARM see a lot of FOMO here..
Remember:
Don't market buy. They will fill your order as high as possible.
Don't FOMO buy. Don't force a trade.
SoftBank is a dumper. They tried dumping ARM in 2020 for a +25% gain to $NVDA. Let that sink in.
Also, don't short it. You might get roasted.
SoftBank bought 25% stake at 64B valuation recently. That means that should serve as a decent floor. The other floor is 40B which NASDAQ:NVDA would scoop up I imagine.
Follow for more tips & like this post. Your support is appreciated.
BDKR - PRIMARY BASEI bought my positions today
May 25, 2023
The reasons:
1. Low-risk entry point
2. The stock offers the first buyable base after an IPO
3. It has a very tight pivot level/line of the least resistance
4. High relative strength stock
5. It has VCP characteristics
6. I got an 80% win rate on a primary base setup
Flaw:
1. The market is still in a correction
2. Lack of setup in the market
I had a pilot position on May 23, 2023. Today, I added it into a full position.
The end of the SaaSacre and the rise of generative AIWe recently had the pleasure of speaking with Janelle Teng of Bessemer Venture Partners (BVP). Janelle is a vice president at BVP, focused primarily on cloud software, infrastructure and developer platforms. WisdomTree began working with BVP in 2020 to launch WisdomTree’s Cloud Computing Strategy which tracks the BVP Nasdaq Emerging Cloud Index. This blog is a summary of the key takeaways from the discussion.
The SaaSacre1 of 2022
We had to start by recognising the feeling of our current environment, which comes largely from what BVP has termed the ‘SaaSacre’ of 2022. What is a SaaSacre? If one pulls up the return of the BVP Nasdaq Emerging Cloud Index during 2022 and sees a figure worse than -40%, then they will see it – that drop is the SaaSacre. The market underwent a complete adjustment to valuations across the board, going from peak levels observed in late 2022 to levels much lower reflecting, among other things, a higher general interest rate environment brought on by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Investors in software-as-a-service (SaaS) companies tended to see an opposite relationship during 2022, where, as interest rates rose, SaaS valuations fell and vice versa2. While it is logical that companies that expect to deliver cash flows far into the future would see their valuations impacted by interest rates, the relationship is not always so stark.
The 3 archetypes of COVID-19 shocks on growth S-curves
The S-curve is a commonly used heuristic to help investors relate time, plotted on the horizontal axis, to adoption, plotted on the vertical axis. A steeper S-curve = faster adoption. An S-curve moved vertically upwards = a larger adoption. The COVID-19 pandemic was a shock that changed the position of the S-curves of various SaaS companies. If we can understand at least a few archetypes of how this occurred, it can help us to better evaluate how companies are doing now, largely on the other side of the shock. We show these examples in Figure 13:
Temporary exponential growth from illusion of market opportunity: this shock would appear as a bulge upwards in the upper portion of the S-curve—telling us that adoption picked up rapidly for a period of time—before dropping back to the original trend.
Unsustainable exponential growth due to acceleration within original market opportunity: this shock would appear as a steeper S-curve, with the rising slope pulled further to the left telling us that adoption was occurring suddenly, faster—with the top level peaking at the same place as originally intended, but just arriving there sooner. Many people are familiar with Zoom Video Communications, and this company’s pandemic experience seems to largely be consistent with this archetype.
New growth baseline from expanded market opportunity: while it may be easy for CEOs to tell us all a story about how they now have a ‘new growth baseline’, it is far more difficult to actually deliver and execute on than it is to say. If there is one area where this happened, it was in food delivery, in that after the pandemic the general person thinks differently about using certain services, be it Uber Eats or DoorDash.
The difficulty of making predictions
In thematic topics, it is frequently difficult to make predictions about growth rates and the ultimate sizes of given markets. In the conversation with Janelle, we talked about an example of some forecasts that Gartner had made regarding Worldwide Public Cloud Service Revenues4.
In April of 2019, the prediction for 2022 was $331 billion.
In April of 2022, the prediction for 2022 was $495 billion, significantly higher.
Initial public offerings (IPO’s) and mergers and acquisitions (M&A)
We spent time talking about what we were seeing, or put more accurately weren’t seeing, in 2022, and that was IPOs. A significant benefit of speaking with Janelle and BVP is that there is a sense of history. We can recognise that 2021 was an outlier year, in that the aggregate value of software IPOs priced was in the vicinity of $28 billion. Even without the historic shift in policy at the Fed, Figure 2 shows that matching anything close to 2021’s result was going to be difficult.
Within the category of corporate actions, sometimes you see M&As (Adobe’s intended purchase of Figma was a big example) and sometimes you see private equity players making investments. So-called ‘take-privates’ in 2022 were extremely active, and we saw many such examples through the year.
Growth vs profitability
One of the questions that we hear often regards what is more important, growth or profitability? In recent years, maybe the real answer is, ‘it depends when you ask.’ It’s very clear that those of us following the software space in 2018 and 2019 saw that growth was of the utmost importance. In 2022, on the other hand, we were hearing a lot more about profitability.
Janelle was able to walk through some work done by BVP within the 2023 State of the Cloud report, the gist of which was, when considering the impact on valuations5:
November 2021: revenue growth was about six times as impactful on valuations as profitability.
October 2022: the importance of revenue growth and profitability were roughly equal in their impact on valuations.
April 2023: revenue growth was about two times as impactful on valuations as profitability.
The true conclusion: It is never all growth and it is never all profitability, but it is important to be aware of how the focus on these measures can ebb and flow across time.
Generative AI is going to be everywhere
Janelle and I spoke the day after Microsoft reported its quarterly earnings for the period ended March 31, 2023. We briefly touched on this quote from Amy Hood, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer6:
“In Azure, we expect revenue growth to be 26% to 27% in constant currency, including roughly 1 point from AI services."
We can also note this statement from Satya Nadella, CEO7:
“Our Azure OpenAI Service brings together advanced models, including ChatGPT and GPT-4, with the enterprise capabilities of Azure. From Coursera and Grammarly, to Mercedes-Benz and Shell, we now have more than 2,500 Azure OpenAI Service customers, up 10X quarter-over-quarter.”
Janelle and I discussed how the big companies, in this case represented by Microsoft, are important, in that they tell us something about broader enterprise consumption and spending, leading to better clarity on the environment that the more ‘emerging’ cloud companies have to operate within. Microsoft is sending a big signal on generative artificial intelligence (AI), and we believe we will continue to see it spreading across many different companies.
Bottom line: lots of growth catalysts for those with more time
Even if we recognise the uncertainty in the current 2023 economic environment, those investors with a longer time horizon can take advantage, positioning for important growth drivers looking forward. It is rare that companies with the largest market capitalisations in the world are able to announce something that could have a material impact on revenue growth, but that is just what generative AI seems to be as we write these words.
Sources
1 SaaSacre is a term from BVP, combining ‘SaaS’ and massacre, to help illustrate in words the tough performance environment observed in 2022.
2 Source: bvp-atlas/state-of-the-cloud-2023
3 Source: nextbigteng.substack the-reckoning-of-pandemic-tech-darlings
4 Source: nextbigteng.substack.com the-reckoning-of-pandemic-tech-darlings
5 Source: bvp atlas/state-of-the-cloud-2023?from=feature
6 Source: Microsoft earnings FY23Q3
7 Source: Microsoft earnings FY23Q3
The Chinese low float that could run!LICN has been on our radar ever since it broke out of a VCP type setup. The stock ran into resistance and now has seen a heavy amount of trading around the $2.30 - $2.50 range.
In our opinion, the stock provides a low risk, high reward setup with our target being the AVWAP from the IPO high.
Strong support is current present from the rising 50 day MA and the AVWAP from the all time low.
A company well positioned for its second growth phaseYALA is in my opinion undervalued at current market prices. The stock provides a strong thesis for both the fundamental and technical trader.
Their revenue has grown from 42mn in 2018 to 303mn in 2022. Net Income has grown from 20mn in 2018 to 78mn in 2022.
Paying users for the products has grown by 49% relative to 2021. Monthly active users (MAU) has grown by 14% in 2022.
No debt; you take out accrued expenses and unearned revenue, they barely have any current liabilities either.
Cash balance has grown by 2300% since 2018. Cash per share is 2.57 vs the current market price of 3.84 - Adjust cash per share and you are buying this stock for $1.27
Relative to its industry:
PE 6 vs Industry PE of 27
PS 1.80 vs Industry PS of 5.50
P/B of 1.26 vs Industry P/B of 2.60
Cash/Share of 2.57 vs Industry Cash/Share of 0.19
Technically, there is some solid support at 3.40 for traders to risk off of. The stock just closed back above the 200MA on above average volume. Ideally I would be targeting the medium term resistance at $5.50. Hence the trade provides a R/R of around 1:3.
HALO - PRIMARY BASEI bought my positions today
March 9, 2023
The reasons:
1. Low-risk pivot point
2. The stock offers the first buyable base after an IPO
3. Low-cheat level (it is preferable for IPO base)
4. High relative strength
5. IPO breakout is working fine this far
Flaws:
1. Stock closed squat
2. Lack of volume on the breakout
So far, it acting normal. I like to see some constructive action in the upcoming days.
XCH looking good in this rangeAfter the price drops massively the first year after trading started from the low volume ~1k USD per XCH during feature trading and a peak up above 2k USD the price now is in a range between ~30 USD and ~50 USD. The network space slowly started to grow ~10% since january 2023 and can be considered stable since july 2022. The node count is ~115k (ETH ~7k, BTC ~17k). The inflation is still high with ~9k XCH per day, 1st halving is ~ Q1 2024. Meanwhile the circulating supply reaches 25% of the total supply, 75% is hold by the Chia Company. The company announced a few days ago to have submited the registration to the U.S. SEC. In my opinion that is a positive sign but it should also not be overrated at this point. They still need to build valueable partnerships and the global market may dip again. ETH could build up sell pressure or other bad news can shock that market again. On the other side people could buy crypto because they think it is worth more in the future than keeping their fiat. I also still expect the tech market to dip again and maybe the financial market too. I just hope that china does not do the russian a**h*** move and invades it's neighbors too. Climate crises also can have a bigger impact on the markets the next years than many expect. I am still surprised that people think that buying a Tesla or "green" fuel does save us from destroing our own environment we need to live in. I just hope for a bullrun or two before the people wake up. ;-) But who knows what happens next, pls tell me. ;-)
As always, no financial advice.
Pullback buy in LTHLife Time owns and operates a chain of “athletic country clubs.” They are basically high-end gyms offering everything from free weights and elliptical machines to steam saunas and smoothie bars.
The company went public in late 2021, right before the bear market began.
But the stock is now soaring…
I have circled the signs of accumulation in the volume candles at the bottom of the chart.
Notice the huge influx of buying on the way up and the relatively light volume on retracements. This looks like institutional buying and a sign that buyers are still in control.
Last week’s pullback to the 21-day moving average is buyable in my opinion and should be a good entry point as long as the overall market holds up.
I am taking a position here with a stop below 17.00.