Iran
Clashing forces on the supply sideHere we are tracking the continuation of the move down in Oil.
On the demand side, manufacturing is starting to slow and we are outguessing signs of the effects on the demand side. Equities wont be able to hold Oil up for too much longer, this is starting to look clearer by the day.
Prices will have to fall to offset the move in demand, once this starts coughing there is only one direction for Oil.
Best of luck
Investors doubt and China operates at half capacityBefore investors could relax and believe that the worst was over, a new portion of reasons for concern arrived. It is about spreading the epidemic outside of China. Recall that almost 99% of everything related to COVID-19 took place in China. And investors at some point decided that everything that happens in China remains in China.
Yesterday forced some to reconsider their position. The number of people infected in South Korea rose sharply (it jumped from 32 to 82 in a day, but more importantly, most of the newly diagnosed cases were parishioners of one church, where about 1,000 people were present at the time of infection, that is, we can expect a further increase in the number infected) and Japan (more than twice as many as 84 people jumped in a week), the first deaths appeared in Japan and Iran. All this makes us think about the spread of the epidemic around the world with all that it implies.
By the way, about the resulting. China very clearly demonstrates what price has to be paid. Goldman Sachs experts analyzed data on a number of direct and indirect indicators, in particular, statistics on finished goods production, demand for steel and its reserves, coal consumption and real estate sales in China, and a number of other indicators, and concluded that economic activity in China does not exceed 50% of the average indicators of past years.
That is, as we warned, it is too early to relax, the events are still in the process of development, and their consequences will become clear only after some time.
Against this background, gold traditionally feels comfortable, which continues to stubbornly move towards the goal that we voiced a few weeks ago (1800 mark). But the yen’s problems continue and there are active rumors in the market that the currency is losing the status of an asset-refuge.
Despite the current problems of the yen and the high likelihood of its further decline, sales of the USDJPY pair above 112 look too tempting to not try to catch a u-turn with small stops. Moreover, today is Friday - potentially the day of profit-taking. And the yen has something to fix.
Considering how depressing statistics have recently been from the Eurozone, one can expect another batch of weak data from Europe and a new round of euro sales. So you can even sell the EURUSD pair without waiting for the data.
In addition to the euro, today we will sell oil, a pair of USDJPY (above 112), buy GBPUSD with small stops, and also look for opportunities for buying gold.
XAUUSD: Next Stop is WUHAN Damn Wuhan to hell for being so disgusting and eating rats and cats then getting SARS-CORV. Damn them to their filthy ways and let Gold shine bright for the darkness that is spreading. People in EU, UK, USA, and many parts of Eastern Asia are getting roasted by SARS-CORV and its all cause of WUHAN, CHINA. If you ask me I say we nuke em and buy Gold.
BTC more signs of a bull run regardless of Iran US conflictSince BTC is already digital gold and adaption is just the next step. Considering that BTC was pumping along with January effect and the conflict between US and Iran. Let's consider that I was bearish already during this phase of consolidation from January 8-13 where Iran and US expressed concern to end conflict to not escalate a war. BTC then consolidated and was bound for correction on my analysis. But I was proven wrong and for me BTC pumping was unlikely from here. But it did...So in conclcusion if BTC is pumping even out of the Iran and US conflict which is already fading away...then we can consider this a sign of a bull run. Let's still see
Price Action Says Short, But War Can Say BullGold is extremely overbought on both the monthly and the weekly. So this should still ride overall as a short.
The conflict with Iran can still greatly affect the USD, so whatever happens, this week news-wise can still make it bullish against price action.
But technical analysis still screaming this is a big big short. Let's see.
BEAR TPS:
• 1550.55
• 1537.30
• 1527.05
• 1515.56
• 1503.63
• 1489.61
BULL TPS:
• 1571.51
• 1584.37
• 1595.62
• 1610.72
EURNZD Bearish Cycle Is Not Completed YetThe bearish impulsive wave that started in October 2019 is still underway.
Price should be making a short-term rally and longterm decline until the structure is completed.
Note: I will be looking to short from the blue zone.
Check Related Idea for previous analysis.