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EUR/USD hovers around 1.0540s as bears take a breather 6 May 2Risk-aversion lifted the low-yielder EUR, despite broad US dollar strength. The US labor market keeps strengthening, adding 428K jobs to the economy. EUR/USD Price Forecast: In the long-term downward biased, but the 1-hour chart depicts the pair as neutral-upwards. The EUR/USD trimmed some of Thursday’s losses, and it is set to finish the week on the right foot, snapping four consecutive weeks of losses amidst a risk-aversion environment in the financial markets. At 1.0552, the EUR/USD edges up some 0.13%. Sentiment remains negative, as reflected by US equities, extending their losses for the second straight day. Earlier in the North American session, the US Department of Labour unveiled April’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, which showed that the US economy added 428K jobs, higher than the 391K foreseen by analysts. Job gains were led by leisure, hospitality, manufacturing, transportation, and warehousing. The Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 3.6%, and Average Hourly Earnings rose by 5.5% y/y, lower than the 5.6% last month’s previous reading. “Nothing in today’s employment report would change the Fed’s expected path ... current market sentiment does not place a lot of confidence in the Fed getting inflation under control without a recession,” according to sources cited by Reuters. Analysts at ING wrote in a note that “the unemployment rate held steady at 3.6% rather than dropping to 3.5% as expected, which in combination with a softer average hourly earnings figure of 0.3% month-on-month rather than the 0.4% consensus forecast (and slower than the 0.5% gain in March) may been taken as a signal of less inflationary pressures in the jobs market.” Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index, a measurement of the greenback’s value against a six currencies basket, is pairing early day losses, up 0.11%, currently at 103.664, while the US 10-year Treasury yield reached a YTD high around 3.131%. EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook From a daily chart perspective, the EUR/USD remains downward biased. Despite Friday’s price action, which favored the shared currency, the major remains vulnerable to further selling pressure, albeit ECB’s member efforts to boost the EUR. The 1-hour chart in the near-term depicts the EUR/USD as neutral-upward biased. The 50-hour simple moving average (HSMA) crossed over the 200-HSMA, a bullish signal, but the almost horizontal slope keeps the EUR/USD range-bound. Upwards, the EUR/USD’s first resistance would be April 2017 high at around 1.0569. Break above would expose Friday’s daily high, shy of the 1.0600 figure, followed by the R1 daily pivot at 1.0620. On the downside, the EUR/USD’s first support would be the 200-HSMA at 1.0550. A breach of the latter would expose the February 2017 swing low at 1.0494, followed by the S1 daily pivot at 1.0470, and then 1.0450.
Short
by sniper_2022
2
EUR/USD: Chances of 1.05 being tested by the end of the week hav27 April 2022, 10:05 EUR/USD lost nearly 100 pips on Tuesday and continues to edge lower early Wednesday. , the pair could approach 1.05. 1.05 is at reach “The euro’s blatant inability to rally on hawkish comments by European Central Bank members (not surprising though given 75bp of tightening by year-end is already in the price) means lingering vulnerability to an external environment negatively affected by an ever-concerning situation in Ukraine and generalised USD strength.” “The euro could find some support tomorrow as inflation numbers from eurozone countries start to come in, but the chances of 1.0500 being tested by the end of the week have increased.”
Short
by sniper_2022
EUR/USD: Poised to challenge multi-year lows near 1.0640 EUR/USD has dropped below 1.07. Significant support aligns at 1.0640 and sellers could look to book their profits in case the pair falls toward that level, FXStreet’s Eren Sengezer reports. Bears eye 1.0640 as next target “March Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales data from the US will be looked upon for fresh impetus. The Conference Board will release the April Consumer Confidence Index as well. Even if these data come in better than expected, it might not be enough for risk flows to dominate the markets.” “It's worth noting that EUR/USD will touch its weakest level since April 2017 with a drop below 1.0635. Sellers might see such a move as a profit-taking opportunity and trigger a correction in the pair. In that case, 1.07 (psychological level) aligns as the next recovery target before 1.0730 (static level) and 1.0760 (static level).” “A daily close below 1.0640 is likely to open the door for additional losses toward 1.06 (psychological level) and 1.0570 (static level from March 2017).”
Short
by sniper_2022
DAILY GOLD ANALYSISAccording to Wall Street traders, they have reached their profit ******** And the Asian news that came out and the increase in interest rates could be the end of the gold climb ******** We are now in area 50 of Fibonacci who can approve the correction ********* And according to Elliott waves, we have entered phase 8 of the wave ******* My views are technical, if the United States wants to change the trend, it means there will be price manipulation. ******* Every market needs supply and demand. Now we have witnessed recklessness in gold trading. ******** Thank you for being with me so far
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ALIREZATR60
2
Covid in 2020, Inflation in 2021, Geopolitics in 2022The Chinese New Year just passed, and we are now in the year of the Tiger. “May you live in interesting times” is often considered the translation of a traditional Chinese curse. Markets reflect the economic and political landscapes In 2021 rising inflation was at the center of the stage Inflation will continue to impact markets in 2022 and beyond Geopolitical concerns are rising- China and Russia become allies at the Winter Olympics Iran and North Korea pose threats- Significant moves could come from geopolitical events over the coming months In early 2022, the world continues to suffer from COVID-19 variants and the fallout from economic and political policies that addressed the global pandemic. Markets are nervous with choppy price action in markets across all asset classes. The stock market has been threatening to correct to the downside, and bonds have declined on the back of the prospects of rising interest rates. Cryptocurrency volatility continues to be at head-spinning levels. Commodities remain in mostly bullish trends, but bull markets rarely move in straight lines. As we learned in early 2020, the most significant market volatility comes from unexpected events. In early 2022, the world is anything but a stable place as tensions are mounting and the US’s role as the leader of the “free world” is challenged. In 2020, the pandemic caused wild markets price swings across all asset classes. The central bank and government tools addressing COVID-19’s economic fallout dominate markets in 2021. In 2022, the geopolitical landscape appears to be the factor that could cause lots of uncertainty and price variance. Markets reflect the economic and political landscapes We follow trends as they reflect the crowd’s wisdom. The old sayings “buy the rumor and sell the fact,” or “sell the rumor and buy the fact,” refer to the market’s habit of fading news leading those who follow the news to lose. Over time, macro and microeconomics and the geopolitical landscape determine the path of least resistance of prices. However, market volatility can cause dramatic short-term moves that defy rational, logical, and reasonable fundamental analysis. In early 2022, markets continue to emerge from the global pandemic. The impact of monetary and fiscal policy tools that stabilized economic conditions has significantly impacted markets that will long outlive the pandemic. Moreover, geopolitical dynamics are shifting, increasing the threat of hostilities across the globe. The pandemic caused market volatility in 2020 and 2021, but in 2022, the price variance could increase as the economic and political landscapes are creating more than a bit of uncertainty, and markets hate uncertainty. In 2021 rising inflation was at the center of the stage In 2021, inflationary pressures rose to the highest level in four decades. The consumer price index rose by 7%, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 5.5%. The producer price index increased by nearly 10%. US GDP also moved appreciably higher. The Fed did absolutely nothing as inflation rose, blaming the economic condition on “transitory” pandemic-inspired supply chain bottlenecks. However, a four-decade high caused the central bank to realize that inflation was more structural than temporary. At the November and December FOMC meetings, the rhetoric became more hawkish, but while the Fed talked a good game, the only change came as they began tapering quantitative easing. Tapering was not tightening as the central bank continued to purchase debt securities. In early 2022, the hawkish squawking increased in volume at the January meeting, but QE will not end until early March, setting the stage for liftoff from a zero percent short-term Fed Funds rate. In 2021, asset prices increased with double-digit percentage gains in the leading stock market indices, commodities, real estate, cryptocurrencies, and other assets. Inflation erodes money’s purchasing power, so the increases in asset prices were a mirage as they reflected the decline of fiat currency values. About halfway through 2021, the US government bond market began screaming that the Fed was behind the inflationary curve. As the chart highlights, the US 30-Year Treasury bond futures fell from the July 2021 167-04 high to 159-31 at the end of December 2021. In early 2022, the long bond’s decent continues with the bonds trading to a low of 150-26 last week, the lowest level since May 2019. The move below technical support at the July 2019 152-28 low could be a gateway to a test of the 2018 136-16 bottom, meaning inflation will continue to push interest rates higher. Inflation will continue to impact markets in 2022 and beyond Last week, we found out that CPI rose by 7.5% in January 2022 with the core reading up 6% as inflation continues to rise. Crude oil is trending towards $100 per barrel, and other prices continue to appreciate. Bull markets in commodities reflect inflationary pressures, but they rarely move in straight lines. Raw material markets tend to be far more volatile than stocks or bonds, but they are inflationary barometers. All signs point to a continuation of higher lows and higher highs in the commodities asset class. At the end of last week, gold was above the $1800 pivot point and threatening to break out to the upside. Gold is the ultimate inflation barometer, and the price has been making lower highs and higher lows since March 2021. Like a tightly coiled spring, the wedge pattern in the gold market suggests that a substantial move is on the horizon. Since the turn of this century, every price correction in the gold market has been a buying opportunity. The odds continue to favor the upside when gold abandons the $1800 pivot price. Inflation is a challenging beast as it creates a vicious cycle that pushes prices higher and fiat currencies lower. In early 2022, the supply chain, labor shortages, and rising input costs continue to pour fuel on the inflationary fire. The shift in US energy policy handed crude oil’s pricing power back to the international oil cartel and Russia. Higher oil prices increase input and transportation costs. Addressing climate change by supporting alternative and renewable energy sources is a multi-decade program. The current US administration is not prepared to increase oil and gas production to lower traditional energy prices. Energy is a root cause of inflation, and the current course of monetary policy tightening is not likely to reduce inflation if oil prices continue to rise in 2022. With core CPI at the 6% level, the Fed would need to increase the Fed Funds rate by twenty-five basis points twenty-three times to push real short-term interest rates into positive territory. The latest FOMC forecasts of a 0.90% Fed Funds rate in 2022 and 1.60% in 2023 means real rates will remain negative, fueling inflation over the coming months and years. Meanwhile, the Fed is in an unenviable position as higher rates will cause the cost of funding the $30 trillion debt to soar. Each twenty-five basis point increase costs $75 billion in debt servicing costs each year. At a 5.5% Fed Funds Rate the price tag is a staggering $1.65 trillion per year. The bottom line is that the US central bank and government are unwilling to swallow the bitter pill necessary to address inflation, which will continue to rise. Just as in all markets, the trend is higher, and it is always your best friend, even when it is devastating for the economy. Geopolitical concerns are rising- China and Russia become allies at the Winter Olympics The US faces more problems on the economic landscape. We may remember the 2022 Beijing Olympics as a watershed event, not for athletics, but a meeting between the Chinese and Russian leaders. President Xi pledged support to President Putin over Ukraine. With over 100,000 Russian troops at Ukraine’s border, it may only be a matter of time before an incursion. The US and Western Europe consider Ukraine part of a free Eastern Europe, and Russia believes the country is eastern Russia. A Chinese and Russian alliance complicates NATOs defense of Ukraine’s sovereignty. Meanwhile, China is committed to reunification with Democratic Taiwan. Presidents Xi and Putin also agreed that the US should not interfere with Chinese plans to bring Taiwan under its umbrella. An alliance between China and Russia over Ukraine and Taiwan has far-reaching geopolitical consequences as it could render sanctions impotent. Russia agreed to supply oil and gas to China via its pipeline system, which fills Russia’s pockets with funds and fuels China’s economy and growth. US allies in Europe and worldwide depend on Russia and China for commodity flows and commerce. The western alliance that supports sovereignty for Ukraine and Taiwan weakens as Chinese and Russian ties strengthen. Iran and North Korea pose threats- Significant moves could come from geopolitical events over the coming months The rise of China and Russia comes at the expense of the United States, the current leader of the free world. Moreover, it encourages US enemies worldwide. Iran continues to enrich uranium as the Biden administration attempts to negotiate a nuclear non-proliferation agreement. The US has an ulterior motive as higher oil prices make increased Iranian production attractive in the current environment. Higher oil prices strengthen Iran’s negotiating position in dealing with the US and Europe. Over the past weeks, North Korea has been test-firing rockets, moving forward with its nuclear weapons program. The hermit nation is now a nuclear power with weapons of mass destruction that could reach the US. Chinese and Russian cooperation only enhances North Korea’s position as an emerging nuclear power. The bottom line is that markets reflect the economic and geopolitical landscape. Uncertainty in early 2022 is at the highest level since the Cold War. As Russia increases its global sphere of influence, it is now the most powerful OPEC+ nonmember, making production decisions alongside Saudi Arabia. Moreover, Russian allies in Cuba and Venezuela are close to US territory, posing a substantial threat to the US mainland if a war in Europe is on the horizon. Aside from conventional military hostilities, technology has created new weapons that could draw the entire world into conflicts. COVID-19 dominated markets in 2020, and rising inflation was at the center of the stage in 2021. In 2022, the geopolitical landscape has become a minefield of potential problems likely to impact markets across all asset classes. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
CBOT:ZB1!
by Andy_Hecht