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Ironcondor

Opened: SMH March 15th 169/175/199/205 Iron Condor... for a 2.07 credit. Comments: 30-day IV at 27.8%. (Higher would be better, but you can't have everything). Collecting 1/3rd of the width of the wings in credit. 2.07 credit on BPE of 3.93; 52.7% ROC at max; 26.3% at 50% max. As usual, will generally look to take profit at 50% max; adjust sides on side test. This is probably my last trade in the March monthly, since 45 DTE is kind of the wheelhouse for this stuff, and the March monthly is at 43 DTE. I'll mostly hand sit from here until month end, with most of the trades being adjustments.
NASDAQ:SMH
by NaughtyPines
2
Opening: NFLX 435/445/545/555 Iron Condor... for a 3.45 credit. Comments: Earnings play with the announcement today after close. 3.45 credit on buying power of 6.55; 52.6% ROC at max; 26.3% at 50% max. I'm basically looking for two things here: (1) IV contraction post-earnings; and (2) price to stay within the expected move, which the options market is pricing in to be about +/- 43 handles from current price (i.e., 448 to the downside, 534 to the up). And ... we'll see how that goes.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by NaughtyPines
Opened: KRE March 15th 39/44/50/55 Iron Condor... for a 1.68 credit. Comments: ETF IV > 35% with 30-day IV at 37.9%. Collecting 1/3rd the width of the wings of a 5-wide; 1.68 credit on BPE of 3.32; 50.6% ROC at max; 25.3% at 50% max. It was kind of a toss-up between doing this as an iron fly or as an iron condor due to the size of the underlying, so compromised, going in somewhat aggressively with the short option legs (they're camped out at the 30 delta). This will allow me to adjust the setup somewhat before having to go inverted with the short strangle aspect (now I've jinxed it). Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; adjust sides on side test.
AMEX:KRE
by NaughtyPines
Opening: TSLA Feb 16th 180/190/230/240 Iron Condor... for a 3.55 credit. Comments: Earnings announcement volatility contraction play. I ordinarily put these on right before earnings, but will probably space it out, so am putting it on today. Earnings will be announced on Wednesday, 1/24, after market close. Here, selling the 25 delta short option strikes and buying longs 10 strikes out from the shorts, resulting in 10 wide wings on which I've collected more than 1/3rd the width of the wings in credit, as well as a net delta setup that's about as delta neutral as you can get. I'm using the next available monthly here so that I've got a little time to manage the setup in the event that that the move is bigger than the options market is anticipating here (around +/- 19 handles, which would be around 225 on the call side, 190 on the put, given current price). The basic notion here is that (a) TSLA IV contracts post-earnings; and (b) it stays within the expected move. The Metrics: 3.55 credit on buying power effect of 6.45; 55.04% ROC at max; 27.52% at 50% max; delta/theta 1.00/8.02; 186.45/233.55 break evens. Since this is a defined risk setup, the BPE is the same regardless of whether you set it up in cash secured account like an IRA or on margin.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by NaughtyPines
Market Rollercoaster: Harnessing Volatility with StranglesIn this video, titled "Market Rollercoaster: Harnessing Volatility with the Strangle & Iron Condor Combo!", Stock Justice walks viewers through an innovative and potentially profitable trading strategy designed for a highly volatile market environment. This strategy aims to exploit market volatility without being directionally exposed, making it an excellent choice for investors looking for non-directional trading opportunities. Stock Justice starts the video by sharing his observations on the current market scenario, which has been stuck in a range for several weeks. He predicts that the market will soon pick a direction, and timing, as always, will be crucial. He then introduces the viewers to two of his favorite strategies for trading volatile markets - the strangle and the iron condor. For Monday, May 22nd, Stock Justice details his plans for entering a directionally neutral strangle. He talks about scaling into the position slowly to manage risk and ensure optimal entry points. He also warns viewers about the challenges of fighting theta decay, especially as the options expiration date (OPEX) on Friday approaches. The second part of his trading plan involves setting up a directionally neutral long iron condor for Thursday, June 1st. This strategy would achieve maximum profit if either the call debit spread or the put debit spread ends up in the money. Again, he stresses the importance of scaling in slowly to manage risk and optimize entry points. Throughout the video, Stock Justice provides clear instructions on setting profit targets and stop loss areas. He emphasizes that while these strategies can be profitable, they also carry risk, so it's crucial to have a plan for managing potential losses. This trading strategy video offers a comprehensive, engaging, and informative look at how to navigate and profit from a volatile market. Whether you're new to non-directional trading strategies or an experienced trader looking to refine your approach, this video offers valuable insights and actionable advice. Stock Justice concludes the video by reminding viewers that trading, like any other skill, is mastered over time. So while these strategies offer exciting opportunities, it's essential to practice and continually learn to become a better trader.
AMEX:SPY
by StockJustice
High IV sets up premium selling environmentWith VIX ripping on today's bank FUD the IV Rank and IV Percentile of SPY is the highest in a year's worth of trading days. This sets up opportunities for premium selling that have not existed for a very long time. Rules: SELL the 20 Delta Strikes at 45 DTE or greater in monthly expirations. BUY wings at 10 Delta Strikes same DTE That ended up being: SELL May 350 Put SELL May 414 Call BUY May 325 Put BUY May 425 Call For 4.64 Credit. The plan is to "manage deltas" and keep this position delta neutral through the duration until 50% credit received. That means if the sides get tested directionally roll up the untested side, increasing credit, to get the delta back to as close to 0 as is reasonable.
CBOE:VIX
by norok
SPY Iron Condor SetupUndecided whether to be long or short this market? The weekly Bollinger Bands indicated that we are smack dab in the middle of a range-bound stock market. Inflation based on today's CPI indicated that the rate of inflation change is slowing. Talk is now on when will the Fed pivot? Probably more fireworks tomorrow when the Fed takes action and "speaks". The Bollinger Bands indicate an overbought level at 435 and oversold at 340. A five point credit spread on each side out to March brings in $1,80. Filled at 181. Should SPY close somewhere in the middle come March 17, the play brings in $60/month while risking $320. Filled at $1,81
AMEX:SPYLong
by AssetDesign
Opened (Margin): IWM 144/154/182/192 Iron Condor... for a 3.34 credit. Comments: (Late Post). Another "synthetic short strangle" I put on on Friday, with the short legs set up around the 25 delta, the longs out from there to obtain a 50% ROC at max metric. 3.34 credit on buying power effect of 6.66; 50.2% at max; 25.1% at 50% max. Will primarily look to roll paired legs (short call/long put, short put/long call) to delta balance. For example, the short call finished the day in .52/$52 worth of profit, the long put .43/$43, so I would look to roll the short call and long put down simultaneously to lock in that realized gain and to delta balance.
AMEX:IWM
by NaughtyPines
1
Opening (Margin): SPY November 18th 320/338/388/406 Iron Condor... for a 6.13 credit. Comments: Putzing a bit with these so-called "synthetic short strangles" ... . Selling the 25's on both sides and erecting long wings out from there. I had to go oddball width with the wings (18.00) to keep the setup symmetrical, since there's only 5-wides on the put side. 6.13 credit on buying power effect of 11.87; 51.6% ROC as a function of buying power effect at max; 25.8% at 50% max. As with my QQQ setup (See Post Below), will look to roll the pairs of sides (long put/short call, long call, short put) for a realized gain and to delta balance.
AMEX:SPY
by NaughtyPines
Opening (Margin): QQQ November 18th 240/260/314/334 Iron Condor... for a 6.31 credit. Comments: Moving out to November, which is still a bit long-dated ... . Selling the 23's on both sides for my short legs, erecting longs 20 strikes out from there. 6.31 on BPE of 13.74; 45.9% ROC at max; 23.0% at 50% max. Here, I'm looking to manage just the short strangle aspect of the setup to delta balance if necessary, leaving the longs alone to safety tape off max loss as well as keep the buying power effect somewhat fixed. As I adjust the short options, however, the spread on one side or the other will widen, thereby increasing buying power effect, since that is attributable to the widest wing. For example, if I roll the short call down by one strike (1.00) and I get a .75 credit for doing that, the buying power effect will increase to 21.00 (since I've widened the wing to 21). However, I will have received a .75 credit for doing that, so my BPE will increase by 1.00 - the credit received or .25 ($25). As with a naked short strangle, I'll look to adjust just the short strangle aspect of the setup at a delta/theta ratio of >1.00. It's currently .01/17.93.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by NaughtyPines
8
Nasdaq Weekly Forecast Analysis 3-7 Oct 2022 Nasdaq Weekly Forecast Analysis 3-7 Oct 2022 We can see that currently the volatility is around 4.84% for this week, decrising from the 5.06% from the last week. Currently there is around 23.6% that the asset is going to close either above or below the channel: TOP 11600 BOT 10470 The current volatility percentile is around 89th, placing us in a very risking and volatility week. And in this situations in general the market moves: AVG weekly bull candle = 2.38% AVG weekly bear candle = 2.692% With this mind, from the opening price it would situate us around TOP 11300 BOT 10500 At the same time, due to the nature of the opening price, making this weekly candle a bearish candle, there is currently a 36% that we will break the ath of previous weekly candle of 11600. From the technical analysis point of view: The majority of moving averages ranging from 10 to 200, are currently around 80% agreement that the market is in a short trend ( the current price is below those moving averages) At the same time if we are looking at the candle type since the beginning of the year, we can see that 60.61% of them were bearish, solidificating the bearish trend. News that can affect the price of this asset this week: - Monday 3 October : ISM PMI - Tuesday 4 October : JOLT Job - Wednesday 5 October : ADP and ISM release - Thursday 6 October : Initial Jobless Claims and ECB Report - Friday 7 October: Nonfarm Payrolls
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by exlux
SP500 Weekly Forecast Analysis 3-7 Oct 2022 SP500 Weekly Forecast Analysis 3-7 Oct 2022 We can see that currently the volatility is around 4.38% for this week, decrising from the 4.58% from the last week. Currently there is around 24.3% that the asset is going to close either above or below the channel: TOP 3757 BOT 3430 The current volatility percentile is around 89th, placing us in a very risking and volatility week. And in this situations in general the market moves: AVG weekly bull candle = 2.5% AVG weekly bear candle = 2.76% With this mind, from the opening price it would situate us around TOP 3684 BOT 3492 At the same time, due to the nature of the opening price, making this weekly candle a bullish candle, there is currently a 38% that we will break the ath of previous weekly candle of 3750 and there is a 66% that we will touch the low of previous candle which is 3570. From the technical analysis point of view: The majority of moving averages ranging from 10 to 200, are currently around 66.6%% agreement that the market is in a short trend ( the current price is below those moving averages) At the same time if we are looking at the candle type since the beginning of the year, we can see that 59% of them were bearish, solidificating the bearish trend. News that can affect the price of this asset this week: - Monday 3 October : ISM PMI - Tuesday 4 October : JOLT Job - Wednesday 5 October : ADP and ISM release - Thursday 6 October : Initial Jobless Claims and ECB Report - Friday 7 October: Nonfarm Payrolls
CME_MINI:ES1!
by exlux
$NKE Iron Condor IdeaAfter being struck down -7% post ER and general weak market, I like the idea of selling puts on NKE via an Iron Condor (bull put spread and bear call spread). With a demand zone 95-100 area, I opened 2x position 100/95p bull spread and 1x position 125/130c bear spreads with another 1x to be added on next green week ( assuming we get one) to capture better call premium . Opex a few months out will give this trade idea time to work and capture more premium. If you're more bearish than I on this name, an idea would be to adjust the calls closer to the underlying , say 110/115, however after today's purge I favor the probability on the upside hence the 2x put spread Iron condors are nice because you can adjust the position as the stock moves (adding more legs, etc. ) with the trade making max profit if Nike is between 100 and 125 in the coming months. Cheers
NYSE:NKE
by FriscoTrades
1
Daily US Volatility Forecast 27 May 22 SPY,SPX, QQQ, NDXSPX/ES/SPY 27 May 2022 For today, the current expected volatility is going to be below 1.8% with a chance of probability of 85% For SPX/ES this is going to be translated in a movement of +- 73$ from opening candle For SPY this is going to be translated in a movement of +- 7.35$ from opening candle Taking into account the opening candle price which was around 4047.5, we can consider our daily channel the next TOP 4120 BOT 3975 For today we have no big fundamental news which can affect the price of the asset. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ QQQ/NDX/NQ 27 May 2022 For today, the current expected volatility is going to be below 2.23% with a chance of probability of 82% For NDX/NQ this is going to be translated in a movement of +- 273$ from opening candle For QQQ this is going to be translated in a movement of +- 6.6$ from opening candle Taking into account the opening candle price which was around 12250 we can consider our daily channel the next TOP 12520 BOT 11975 For today we have no big fundamental news which can affect the price of the asset. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CME_MINI:ES1!
by exlux
1
Daily US Volatility Forecast 25 May 22 SPY,SPX, QQQ, NDXSPX/ES/SPY 26 May 2022 The current volatility is expected with close to 85% chance to be below 1.85% In this case, our channel for today is going to be TOP 4045 BOT 3900 From fundamental point of view, today we are going to have US GDP release, which it may affect with a high probability the price of this asset Since the expected GDP is going to be negative/bearish compared to the previous values, I believe once we are close to 30k we can enter in a short trade before the release of the data. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NDX/NQ/QQQ 26 May 2022 The current volatility is expected with close to 85% chance to be below 2.28% In this case, our channel for today is going to be TOP 12150 BOT 11600 From fundamental point of view, today we are going to have US GDP release, which it may affect with a high probability the price of this asset Since the expected GDP is going to be negative/bearish compared to the previous values, I believe once we are close to 30k we can enter in a short trade before the release of the data. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CME_MINI:ES1!
by exlux
Expected Key Points SPX/ES 17 May 2022SPX/ES 17 May 2022 The daily expected volatility is around 2% With an 87% accuracy based on the historical data, we can assume that the price of SPX/ES today is going to be between TOP 4080 BOT 3922 All of this taken into account with the opening price of today which was 4000* From VOLUME POC point of view its above 114 which imply a bullish momentum at this very moment. From Fundamental/News point of view that can affect SPX/ES price: In 10h from now, FED Chair Powel speaks However, be careful because even tho we have a strong 87% probability behind us, because of Powel speech, it can be easily broken
CME_MINI:ES1!
by exlux
Iron Condor IBM 13 May 2022IBM 13 May 2022 The current implied volatility is at 32.77%/year So that converted into daily is 2.06% Since we are in need of the open price for the highest accuracy, I am going to take the current price which is 133.7 (you can also wait for the opening price and take +- 2.75 points from the open candle value) So based on that our channel for today is going to be compressed with a probability chance of 90% within TOP 136.5 BOT 131 From fundamental point, today we have no big volatility news that can impact our asset. At the same time the current values are expected to be sidemarket/bullish.
NYSE:IBM
by exlux