Ironcondor
Opening (Small Account): IWM November 19th 198/204/2 x 246/249... "Double Double" Iron Condor for a 1.08 credit.
Comments: If IWM is going to give me rangebound, I'm going to play it rangebound. Here, a "double double" iron condor to accommodate call side skew. To do this, I went 6 wide on the put side, but 3 wide on the call side with the short call legs at around 1/2 the delta of the short put leg, but double the number of contracts. (Double the number of contracts on the call side, double the width of the call side spread on the put side; hence, "Double Double."). This results in a delta neutral setup with spreads on both the put and call side that are fairly equidistant from where price is current trading and wide of the range IWM has been hanging out for the past several eons. Additionally, you're not tying up additional buying power by doing things this way, since a 2 x 3 ties up the same buying power as a 1 x 6.
22.0% ROC as a functional of buying power effect at max; 11.0% at 50% max.
IRON TARIHi guys,
this is a short iron condor, with 4 weeks until expiration ( next regular) and 5% strike, we have only the 40% of probability.
So it means that there are 60% of probability that the price will be at expiration more than +-5% from actual price.
Selling the 280 call and the 310 put, with 2.5$ spread, there is a max profit of 130$, and a max loss of 120$.
I'm confident that we are going to have enough room to roll up or down in a few days to minimize the max loss and raise our probability of success, but so far we have 60% to earn more than what we risk.
Check on my script more info about this.
Enjoy your wallet!
Tari.
IRON TARIHi guys,
this is a 4 weeks Iron Condor with 12% strike. To trade it and to keep a nice preimium ( we have more than 90 out 100 probabilities to earn the max premium) I have a 10$ spread for the wings.
Have a look at this strategy to my prevoius post and you will see how easy the math is in here.
Subscribe to my strategy for free!
Enjoy your wallet!
Tari,
88% PoP #ironcondor for $BABA in chinese crash #option #optionsChinese crash credit play, because of high IVRank.
My Iron Condor Hunter script have signaled a safe entry here.
REASONS:
1) Confirmed bear trend
This is the safe playground of IC for credit.
The backtested 3 years of bullish trend changed.
2) My automatic Iron Condor Hunter script
My Iron Condor Hunter script gave a reliable signal to opening IC position.
To subscibe for free trial of it: please follow and requeast access for free.
Max profit: $188
Probability of 50%Profit: 88%
Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 23%
Max loss with my risk management: ~$200
Req. Buy Power: $812 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!)
Tasty IVR: 81 (very high)
Expiry: 53 days
Buy 1 BABA Sep17' 140 Put
Sell 1 BABA Sep17' 150 Put
Sell 1 BABA Sep17' 220 Call
Buy 1 BABA Sep17' 230 Call
Bearish IronCondor for 1.88cr, Tasty IVRank is extreme high (81 IVR).
Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing OUTSIDE the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be 100$.
Take profit strategy: 65% of max.profit in this case with auto debit order for 0.66db.
Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case!
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Iron TariHi guys,
this is again a CSCO short condor, 4 weeks and 3% strike, gives 30$ credit for 1 dollar Spread. RR is 30/70=0.42, but according to the strategy the odds are at our side, 88% to earn all the premium.
The short strikes are 51 and 54, so BE are at 51.30 and 53.70.
Subscribe for free to my indicator!
Enjoy your wallet!
Tari.
NFLX Low Risk Short PositionNFLX has been trading in a range for many months, as we can see by this weekly chart here:
Stochastics on the daily chart are showing it as heavily overbought, with an RSI of about 85, likely in anticipation of earnings which come out in 6 days. Historically, NFLX sells off about 80% of the time post earnings, usually quite steeply, with an average sell-off of between $50-60 dollars within the week that follows earnings.
Here's a daily chart with stochastics visible:
Barring a few temporary outlying moves to the outer extremities of its range, I believe NFLX will either:
1) Push up towards and then reject at the $566 level and then retrace back down towards $515.00 post earnings.
2) Falter post earnings and retrace to more "typical" RSI and stochastic levels prior to earning hitting.
3) (Hopefully not) push outside its trading range (difficult to imagine this scenario actually happening) and form new highs above its existing range.
I am currently in an Iron Condor on NFLX with 570 and 490 short strikes. It is leaning bearish at the moment, but a move back down downwards 515 and a crush of implied volatility will substantially help my position. I believe both are likely to happen in the current market environment.
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If you were to enter NFLX short, you might consider it around the $566 level, assuming it pushes that high. You could accomplish this with a call credit spread which would give you the benefit of IV crush, assuming volatility decreases (which it would, if the price fell off steeply.)
You could also take a bearish debit spread, but that will struggle with volatility collapse as it's a BTO position.
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Whatever happens, I'll be curious to watch NFLX as it develops. I do not think it's current price behavior is sustainable.
SPY / short iron condor / expiring August 27expiration: AUG 27 (50 DTE)
order:
1 * 390 put (delta -0.13)
-1 * 395 put (delta -0.15)
-1 * 450 call (delta 0.15)
1 * 455 put (delta 0.09)
for 1.05 net credit
@ 430.50
BPR $395
IVR 15.9
PoP 72%
P50 88%
expected move 411.00-449.00
net delta -3.90
target: 55% max profit
Nikkei Options Strategy for coming monthsThis is an idea for trading INDEX:NKY options.
In recent months, Nikkei index did experienced some volatile moments, however, they were all short-term momentum that they were unable to be met with trends that lasted for months or even weeks.
The author of this article believes that this trend to continue.
So, I suggest opening an Iron Condor spread which captures the prices between the lines drawn.
$NKE 8% profit in one day with Iron Condor #nike #options$NKE 8% profit in one day with Iron Condor #nike #options
8% profit in one day at event?
Let's see!
Max profit: $45
Probability of Profit: %75
Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 8%
Req. Buy Power: $554 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!)
Tasty IVR: 24
Expiry: 1 days
Buy 1 NKE Jun25' 120 Put
Sell 1 NKE Jun25' 126 Put
Sell 1 NKE Jun25' 145 Call
Buy 1 NKE Jun25' 150 Call
Iron Condor spread for 554cr, because IVR is relative high because event.
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SPY play with 90% PoP!Hello, guys hope all is well. Today we will be looking at $SPY and how I will play the market this week.
Based on the expected move for this week of $6.79 we are possibly looking at a range between $410.01 - $423.59. On Monday I opened the Put side ($400 / $398 and collected $9 per contact) of my Iron Condor and leg into my Call side roughly Thursday afternoon or right before close.
Last week we saw a slight dip in the markets from Monday's open of $424.43 to Friday's close of $414.92. This 2.24% drop has made the $VIX pop to the $20 levels from the mid to high teens. With this pop, we will be able to take advantage in one of two ways.
1) We can keep our stricks the same as we did last week because we still believe that there is a lot of supply at this price and we want to collect more premium.
2)We will be able to get lower on the put side/higher on the call side while still collecting the same amount of premium as we did last week.
I will be going with the second option because although there may be supply at these levels I still want to sell the .10 - .05 deltas with a $2 widespread.
I'll be looking to collect between $8-$10 per contract on the put side give me roughly a 4% gain while also looking for the same percent gain on the Call side later on in the week. Since no additional collateral is needed to add the Call side, we are looking at a minimal gain of 8% if we stay in our expected range.
IRON TARIHi guys,
my indicator shows a 70% probability to end ITMm 4 weeks, 11% strikes.
But premium is very low, so since there is always a 30% chance to end otm, I reverse the condor, and I narrow the sold legs too @48$ and @57$, instead than 11% ( 47$ and 59$), to encrease the odds to end otm, let's say from 30% to at least 40%.
But for a 40% probability to win I have a wonderfull RR ratio at my side, becuase with 1$ spread max primuim is 80$, and max loss 20$.
So even when the market pays less, we know how to get the best out of it!
Subscribe for free to get access at my indicator.
Enjoy your wallet!
Tari.
IRON TARIHi guys,
this all starts with a 4 weeks 10% strikes, with 60% probability to end ITM. But the premium is too low, so I narrow the short legs and I invert the condor, so my short legs are @55 and @66( 8% strikes), instead @54 and @67.50.
By this I raise my probability from 40% at at least 50%, keeping a very good RR ratio, in fact with this trade max credit is 75$, and max loss is 25$.
Subscribe for free to get access to my indicator.
Enjoy your wallet!
Tari.
IRON TARIHi guys,
this is an inverter iron condor, 4 weeks and strike 3%. We have 14% probability to end ITM, so 86% probability that our inverted condor gets the maximum profit!
RR is pretty nice too, becuase selling @305$ and @325$ with 5$ spread, max profit is 200$ and max loss 300$, but we win the max profit 86 times out of 100.
Subscribe for free to get access at my indicator.
Enjoy your wallet!
Tari.
Developing a ChannelI see Yelp developing a channel between 37.31 and 40.95. There's a possibility that this flag pattern turns into a continuation of a previous up trend so I am cautious but today opened a broken wing iron condor to profit the most if it stays in the said range but still make a slight profit slightly above or below. If it breaks resistance, then I will roll the puts to create an iron butterfly; even a partially inverted iron condor if needed. I can also roll the calls to protect the bottom if the price falls below support but will have less room to defend serious price drops since that is the side of the long wing.
Spread:
Brought: Jun 18 34.5 Put
Sold: Jun 18 38 Put
Brought: Jun 18 39.5 Call
Sold: Jun 18 43 Call
Credit: 1.80
Profit Range: 36.19 and 41.30
Max Profit Range: 38.00 and 39.50
IRON TARIHi guys,
this week I found better opportunies buying options rather selling ( IV drop made options cheaper to buy)
So the strategy is basically the contrarian of my Tari Condor ( Have a look and subscribe for free!), and as you can see this trade is 4 weeks and 6% spread.
The sold strikes are 132 and 117, the bought strikes are almost ATM, it depends on your money managment, for a 65% of probability to get some profit.
But let's do some math: Tari Condor says we have only the 22% of possibilities that our sold options will both expire worthless. This means we have 78% of probabilities that the price will move over the sold strikes, higher than the 65% coming from the option chain.
So this time the odds are from our side, because now we play from the other side of the Tari Condor.
Enjoy your wallet!
Tari