IRON TARIHi guys,
this is a new iron condor to set, 4 weeks with 10% strike
So our short legs are @ 256 and @ 313
We have 80% probability of success, so a rew/risk 100-80/80= 20/80 = 0.25
Depending on the size you can trade, and the spread of the 2 verticals, we can reach a Rew/risk of about 0.37, that is 50% more than 0.25.
The preminum is not that much, but we have a very high succesfull rate at our side, plus we can always roll on leg is the things go bad to lower our risk. Using a wider spread the odds increase more, because there is more room for the price to move before to reach the maximum loss, even if in this case we can always close the leg before expiration, to lower the loss.
Enjoy your wallet!
Tari.
Ironcondor
IRON TARIHi guys,
for this iron condor we have 4 weeks and 10% strike, our porbability of success is 80%
So the maths as you saw in the previous posts is easy, but now let's do them from another point of view:
the short legs are 193 and 235. If the sum of their DELTA is higher than 0.2 (80% is 0.2 delta, 70% is 0.3 delta, you know) is a valid trade. This case we have about 0.13 + 0.18 = 0.31 that means the prbability to have the maxim profit is 100-31= 69%.
But we know that our odds are higer, so we jump on this ride!
Enjoy your wallet!
Tari.
Iron TariHi guys,
this is another iron condor from the strategy W1 5% strike.
Probability 63% gives a Rew/Risk = 100-63/63=0.58
Today the market does'nt pay enough, RR is 0.60, not that much we'd like to trade, but we can leave a pending order to get something more.
In this case I prefer to widen the spreads of the 2 vertical, always having a RR not lower than 0.58. This is because the wider the spreads are, the higher our prability of success are. In this case the breakeven moves a bit giving us an higher range to be protibable, plus the max loss moves on each side of 4$. 8$ more for the iron condor is a good extra room for the price.
So in this case we enlarge our probability of success, without touching the RR ratio.
Enjoy your Wallet!
Tari.
Tari CondorHi guys,
this iron condor is W1 5%strike (check my strategy for more info, it's vary easy!)
We have 71% of success: Rew/Risk= 100-71/100=0.40
With one week to expiration it's not easy to find a good price for these 5% strikes, so I moved the strikes @ 190 and @215, with a 5$ spread for each vertical.
The RR is 0.41, so this is not a big edge, but trading wider wings wh move our edge on the side of the probability, becuase BE is wider, just like the bought strikes, wich give us tha max loss.
Enjoy your wallet!
Tari
IRON TARIHi guys!
For this Iron Condor we have 3 weeks at 5% strike, so our short legs are 327.5 and 362.5, probability to win 69%, so Rew/risk = 100-69/69= 0.44
With a 2.5$ spread we can collect 100$ to sell IC, so
Max profit=100
Max loss = 150
RR= 0.66, 50% more than 0.44!
Enjoy your wallet!
Tari.
TARI CONDORHi guys!
According to Tari Condor strategy I set an iron condor with 3 weeks exp and 10% Strike.
The short put is @100, and the short call @122.
With a 78% of success our Reward/Risk is (100-78)/78 = 22/78 = 0.28
I'm in the trade with 1$ spread ( long put@99 and lon call@123), colletting 0.30$
Max win= 30$
Max loss= 70$
RR= 30/70 = 0.42 much higher than 0.28
This is a good edge!
Enjoy your wallet!
TARI CONDORHi guys,
this iron condor is with 3 weeks expire and 4% strike.
So the short legs are 28.5 and 31.
Probability of success is 56%, so our Rew/risk is 100-56/56= 0.78
With 1$ spread iollect 0.52 credit
Max profit 52
Max loss 48
Rew/risk for this operation is 52/48=1.08, 40% more than 0.78
Enjoy your wallet!
Tari.
IRON TARIHi guys,
this iron condor is 3 weeks 10% strike, our probability is 82%
The strikes are enough wide to trade with enough confidence, ther is a very wide room to get profit!
The maths in here very easy, if you cath the 2 short strikes ( 50 and 61.5) for a cumulative delta higher than 0.18 + commission jump in!
Enjoy your wallet!
Tari.
OPENING: DKNG SEPTEMBER 18TH 25/45 SHORT STRANGLE... for a 2.10/contract credit.
Notes: Earnings announcement volatility contraction play with 30-day at 102.7%. Adjusted my strikes slightly over my "Trade Idea" post.
Defined Risk Alternatives: September 18th 20/25/45/50 iron condor, paying 1.20. I'd prefer getting one-third the width out of that, but -- as with LYFT -- pesky width on strike availability in the September expiry.