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Ironman8848

BTC - WEEKLY - DOJI !WEEKLY (W1) Last week price action did not managed to breakout the clouds on a weekly closing basis for the second time in a row and as a result a DOJI pattern took place which is confirming the indecision and uncertainty I mentioned in my previous analysis published yesterday (see related idea below). The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement @ 46'721 (69'000. - 32'950) has been filled during last week with a peak as you know @ 48'234. The failure to close above the clouds increased the risk for a downside move towards the Mid Bollinger Band , currently slightly below the 44'000 area, @ 43'929. This level is roughly in the middle of the weekly clouds and a failure to hold above it would put the focus to the next important support level which is the TENKAN-SEN @ 41'279 ahead of the bottom of the clouds around the 38'000, area which hold very well in the last couple of weeks in rejecting, several times in a row, the attempting to breakout the weekly bottom clouds support area. (only one weekly closing below the clouds which has been very quickly invalidated by the next candle !) On the UPSIDE , the top of the weekly clouds remains the first significant resistance area to break ahead the VERY IMPORTANT RESISTANCE (PIVOT LEVEL) @ 50'975 which is the KIJUN-SEN and which if broken would confirm a bottom in place and would open the door for higher levels towards the 55'000 area. RSI, neutral @ 52.07 and LAGGING LINE currently testing the top of the weekly clouds... DAILY (D1) Still caught in a relatively narrow trading range moving in a sideways mode. Continue to monitor and watch closely this daily price action which for the time being is oscillating around the daily TENKAN-SEN @ 46239. A failure to hold and close above this level would be the first warning signal, calling for further downside towards the former downtrend line resistance (triangle)around 44'500. the daily Mid Bollinger Band being slightly below @ 44'270. KEY SUPPORT AND PIVOT LEVEL ON A DAILY BASIS IS @ 42'900 RSI @ 60.71 and LAGGING LINE still in a sideways mode. 4 HOURS (H4) Invalidation of the upside breakout of the H4 clouds seen yesterday triggered an EVENING STAR ! Currently still in the middle of the clouds but already below the former uptrend line support which is now around 46'500. Watch on H4 closing basis the following levels : UPSIDE : 46'750 DOWNSIDE : 45'500 1 HOUR (H1) Watch the bottom level of the hourly clouds which is currently @ 45'700 which is the SUPPORT AREA IN H1 TIME FRAME. On the upside, watch MBB @ 46'333 ahead the CLUSTER of TS and KS @ 46'616 Have a nice trading week and all the best Take Care IRONMAN8848 - Jean-Pierre Burki www.tradingview.com
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - UNCERTAINTY AND INDECISION ...WEEKLY (W1) The weekly picture is showing a BREAKOUT ATTEMPT to cross over the top of the WEEKLY CLOUDS resistance area @ 47'407- Wait for either VALIDATION or I NVALIDATION by the ongoing weekly closing level. DAILY (D1) Sideways price action caught in a relatively narrow trading range which is showing some uncertainty and indecision about further development. Yesterday's closing price @ 45'820 was below the TENKAN-SEN (45'925) and today's ongoing price action is showing a recovery attempt above the TS, which today @ 46'167after having been supported by the ongoing uptrend support line, currently @ 45'565 LEVELS TO WATCH (daily closing basis ! : UPSIDE : R1 :46'167 R2 : 47'218 R3 : 48'234 A DAILY CLOSING ABOVE 48'234 WOULD CONFIRM FURTHER UPSIDE TOWARDS THE PSYCHOLOGICAL 50'000 RESISTANCE LEVEL AHEAD OF THE VERY IMPORTANT 50'975 LEVEL WHICH IS THE WEEKLY KIJUN-SEN ! DOWNSIDE : S1 : 45'565 S2 : 44'159 (38.2% Fib ret) S3 : 42'900 (50% Fib ret & KS) RSI @ 61.36, below its uptrend support line and the LAGGING LINE moving in a SIDEWAYS mode. A DAILY CLOSING BELOW 44'650 WOULD PUT IN TROUBLE THE STILL VALID TRIANGLE PATTERN TARGETING 57'620 4 HOURS (H4) Currently roughly IN THE MIDDLE OF THE H4 CLOUDS SUPPORT AREA, caught between the KIJUN-SEN in support @ 45'982 and the TENKAN-SEN in resistance @ 46'391. Watch the upcoming H4 closing to get more clues about further development then watch the CLOUDS and respectively : 46'785 on the upside 44'493 on the downside A FAILURE TO HOLD AND CLOSE ON H4 time frame above the clouds bottom level @ 44'493 would corroborate the implications previously mentioned in D1 1 HOUR (H1) WATCH THE CLOUDS TOO as a good leading indicator in this H1 time frame. The bottom of the clouds coinciding also with the H1 Tenkan-Sen level @ 45'985 ! As usual monitor closely intraday shorter time frames which will help you to catch early signals which will validate or invalidate the implication of the scenario mentioned in longer time frames. Have a nice Sunday (Winter is back in Switzerland...) All the best and take care IRONMAN8848. & Jean-Pierre Burki www.tradingview.com
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
3
BTC-IN THE MIDDLE OF THE RANGE !WEEKLY (W1) Upcoming weekly closing level would be very important to look at, as it will either VALIDATE or INVALIDATE the upside BREAKOUT OF THE TOP OF THE WEEKLY CLOUDS RESISTANCE AREA @ 47'407 !!! The Mid Bollinger Band (MBB) @ 44'555, briefly broken yesterday, worked perfectly well as the support level in this weekly time frame DAILY (D1) Nice recovery seen yesterday ! indeed, after having briefly broken an important support level (see my last analysis below), the BITCOIN managed to reverse, confirming, for the time being the PULLBACK I have been talking about and which for the time being let the TRIANGLE PATTERN ALIVE for a technical target of 57'620 ! Nevertheless, as long as the former high @ 48'234 is not broken on a DAILY CLOSING BASIS, the downside pressure remains... The TENKAN-SEN @ 45'925 should be seen, now as the first support in this daily picture and if you look back, so far has worked perfectly well as LEADING SUPPORT INDICATOR. A daily closing below this level should not be underestimated as that should be seen as the first warning signal for a TREND REVERSAL which should be confirmed by the breakout of the ongoing uptrend support level, currently @ 45'245. PIVOT LEVELS DAILY TIME FRAME : 1) ON THE DOWNSIDE @ 42'900 (KIJUN-SEN) 2) ON THE UPIDE @ 48'234 (FORMER HIGH) BREAKOUT IMPLICATIONS OF ONE OR THE OTHER PIVOT LEVEL : 1) ON THE DOWNSIDE 41'642 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 37'567-48'234 rally) ahead of the psychological 40'000 support level which also coincides with the daily clouds support area. 2) ON THE UPSIDE, psychological 50'000 resistance level ahead of 50'975 (WEEKLY KIJUN-SEN !!!). A crossover this level would confirm further upside towards the TRIANGLE TARGET @ 57'620 4 HOURS (H4) The CLOUDS hold and rejected yesterday the downside breakout attempt; the strong recovery which followed with along white bullish candle 44'734 - 46'739 in 4 hours) crossed over strongly the former ongoing uptrend support line which had been changed to a new resistance level. The BITCOIN is currently traded around the Mid Bollinger Band @ 46'492 and the upcoming H4 closing level may give more clues for further intraday development. On the downside, watch the CLOUDS and the TENKAN-SEN @ 45'731 1 HOUR (H1) Despite a RSI convergence detected at the bottom level (44'244) the BITCOIN managed to recover... and this short term recovery has been validated by firstly the upside breakout of the Tenkan-Sen, the MBB and the KS. Currently above the hourly clouds but already below the Tenkan-Sen (46'661) Watch closely this hourly price action and also shorter intraday time frames to get more clues for further development on both sides !!! Mid Bollinger Band @ 46'140 is the next support level ahead the hourly clouds support area, currently between 46'000and 45'500 Do you like my analysis and do you think it bring you some added value ? If YES, do not forget to like it and for those who do not follow me yet, please do not forget either to add IRONMAN8848 to your following list. For those who do not have access yet to TRADING VIEW (the BEST CHARTING APPLICATION available at the moment - several plan, starting from free of charge with the possibility, against payment to upgrade the basis version - Trust me it is a VERY POWERFUL TOOL :-) Are you interested ? Very simple, sign up : www.tradingview.com Have a look at my Trading View profile to get the link to my private analysis. Have a nice weekend, take care and all the best Many thanks for your support IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC-DAILY-CRITICAL LEVEL !As expected and mentioned in previous analysis (see related ideas below), after having briefly broken the 48'000 area (intraday high @ 48'234) a correction took place over the last couple of days and went down towards a V ERY IMPORTANT SUPPORT LEVEL (cluster of of the 2 trend lines on both sides around the 44'700 in reaching an intraday low, so far @ 44'244, nearly filling the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement @ 44'159 ! So what next ? Well, as previously mentioned, this 44'700 area should be seen as a very important support level , as a failure to hold and stay above it on a DAILY CLOSING BASIS, would be taken as a NEGATIVE SIGNAL for further development and would open the door for lower levels towards the 43'000-42'700; the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last 37'567-4'234, being @ 42'900. RSI @ 55.59, below its uptrend support line and the LAGGING LINE crossed under the former downtrend line (triangle resistance line). Currently below the TENKAN-SEN (@ 45'437) and also important to note the DARK CLOUD COVER pattern triggered yesterday with its closing below 45'709, @ 45'517 CONCLUSION : In order to neutralise this ongoing downside price action, the BITCOIN should recover and close later on today at least above 45'437 or even better above the ongoing new downtrend line resistance, currently @ 46'365. Such kind of price action would also confirm this corrective/consolidation move, seen as a PULLBACK towards the breakout (seen on March 27th, long white bullish candle) of the triangle pattern and therefore would also keep alive this triangle formation, calling for higher levels. A FAILURE TO DO IT would put the focus to the 43'000-42'700 area and by the way would put in trouble the activation of the triangle pattern !!! 4 HOURS (H4) Below the Mid Bollinger Band , the Kijun-Sen and the Tenkan-Sen and currently in the middle of the H4 clouds support area (45'476-44'141). RSI sharply down @ 39.77 and LAGGING LINE below both the Tenkan-Sen and the Kijun-Sen. WATCH THE CLOUDS AS A GOOD SUPPORT INDICATOR AND THE TENKAN-SEN (45'934), KIJUN-SEN (46'239) AND MBB (46'868) AS RESISTANCES TO BREAK ! 1 HOUR (H1) The failure to recover above the thin hourly clouds resistance area triggered. yesterday's afternoon this downside move which started above the 47'000 area towards its intraday low, so far @ 44'244. The LAGGING LINE is far below the cluster of TS and KS and also below the CLOUDS ! WATCH RSI , to detect potential bullish divergence ( RSI still converging to the downside for the moment !) In this hourly time frame, a recovery and a closing level on H1 basis above the TS (45'060) would be the first positive signal calling for a potential short term reversal. A confirmation would be given by the breakout of the 46'000 area, neXt resistance being the HOURLY VERY THIN CLOUDS (47'200-47'350 IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC-H4-CONSOLIDATION IN PROGRESS...4 HOURS (H4) The expected consolidation is in progress with a potential short term double top pattern in progress too. Indeed, the trigger level of this potential formation is @ 46'897 and a failure to hold on H4 closing basis above that level would open the door for 45'560 which would be in line which what I mentioned in my previous analysis published yesterday. (see related idea below). b]Tenkan-Sen @ 47'350 ahead of MBB @ 46'601 are the supports levels to monitor and to look at very carefully in this H4 time frame. Important to note that the ongoing H4 support trend line is currently also around the 45'000 are a, which mean that as long as we hold above it, in this 4 hours time frame, recent and current price action should be seen as a corrective move in still a BULLISH TREND. Looking at the DAILY PICTUR E, we can see that the middle level of the LONG WHITE BULLISH CANDLE of March 27th is @ 45'709 and a daily closing below that level would potentially trigger a DARK CLOUD COVER and therefore increase the selling pressure towards the CLUSTER of the daily Tenkan-Sen (44'567), the former downtrend line resistance (44'656) (also the top line of the triangle pattern) and the ongoing daily support trend line (44'250). On the upside, a successful cross over the former recent highs (48'128 & 48'234) would invalidate the ongoing downside risk and would open the door for higher levels towards the psychological 50'000 resistance area. On the DAILY PICTURE, A CLEAR BREAKOUT OF FIRSTLY THE 44'000 area (cluster previously mentioned), would be the first warning signal with below the KEY SUPPORT LEVEL @ 42'701 (Kijun-Sen) WEEKLY (W1) The next weekly closing level would also be important as it will either validate or invalidate the breakout of the weekly top clouds resistance area @ 47'407. A weekly closing above this level should be seen as the first postitve signal, calling for higher levels. As usual, monitor closely the price action on shorter intraday time frames (on H1, watch the clouds support area !), to get additional and earlier signal (s) which will help you to act accordingly in the time frames you are looking for. Have a nice trading day. Take care IRONMAN884 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC-DAILY- CONSOLIDATION THEN HIGHER !DAILY (D1) Price action seen over the last couple of days should be seen as constructive for further upside. Indeed, 1) the breakout of the TRIANGLE PATTERN by a long white bullish candle 2) Next candle closing above the previous closing So after, having reached an intraday high above 48'000 yesterday, @ 48234, we may see some correction, like a pullback towards, potentially the former high @ 45'850 or even lower towards the TENKAN-SEN @ 44'375; such kind of price action, if seen, should be considered, in the current market environment as a consolidation move in a new daily BULL TREND, calling for a move above the psychological 50'000 level and towards the next very important resistance area of 50'975, which is the KIJUN-SEN on the weekly basis. The breakout of the triangle pattern gives a TARGET OF 57'850 ! A FAILURE TO HOLD ABOVE THE ONGOING NEW SUPPORT TREND LINE, CURRENTLY @ 43'720 WOULD CHALLENGE THE EXPECTED BULLISH SCENARIO CALLING FOR HIGHER LEVELS ! Watch price action on both RSI and Lagging line WEEKLY (W1) Ongoing price action is showing an upside breakout attempt of the clouds; next significant resistance level , being, as mentioned previously, @ 50'975, which is the weekly KIJUN-SEN & 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 69'000-32'950 downside move. RSI @ 53.61. LAGGING LINE in support above the CLOUDS and the KIJUN-SEN As usual, monitor and watch closely price action on shorter intraday time frames which will help you to validate or invalidate the implications previously mentioned in the DAILY and WEEKLY time frames. IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Ironman8848
US 30 YEARS-WEEKLY-UPSIDE BREAKOUT ! WEEKLY (W1) Last week price action triggered a LONG WHITE BULLISH CANDLE which broke up and close @ 2.5890 on a weekly basis above the former high @ 2.5160 reached a year ago in March 2021. RSI @ 70.85 is not converging therefore there is a potential BEARISH DIVERGENCE IN PROGRESS ! On the other hand, the LAGGING LINE is far away above the TS, KS and the weekly clouds too which is supportive for further development. Currently above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement @ 2.4130 % of the 3.4650 - 0,71 downside move, Next Fibonacci extension (78.6%) is @ 2.8750 % former congestion seen in 2019, 2018, 2018 and earlier. DAILY (D1) Ongoing (yield) uptrend price action still alive with its first significant support level @ 2.50 (cluster of Tenkan-Sen and ongoing support trend line); below there is 2 levels to look at very carefully : S2 : @ 2.3910 (MBB) S3 : @ 2.3570 (KS) A BREAKOUT OF THE LATTER LEVEL WOULD PUT THE FOCUS TO THE DAILY CLOUDS SUPPORT AREA (2.25-2.07) On the upside, there is a potential double & triple top in progress, coupled with a potential RSI bearish divergence too. Therefore, ongoing price action and more important, next daily closing level will may be validate or invalidate the potential reversal previously mentioned. 4 HOURS (H4) DOUBLE & TRIPLE TOP IN PROGRESS !!! Indeed, recent rallies above the 2.64 % level triggered a potential double & triple top which is coupled also with a RSI bearish divergence... The H4 uptrend support line is still alive and in this H4 time frame the TENKAN-SEN @ 2.5720 ahead of the cluster of KIJUN-SEN and MID BOLLINGER BAND @ 2.55 should be seen as the first support area to look at very carefully in this H4 time frame. A failure to hold above 2.55 would put the focus on the H4 clouds support area (2.48-2.41) , 2.4240 being the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the last upside move starting @ 2.0690 towards the high so far @ 2.6440. Below the 50% Fib ret is @ 2.3560 which is also the Kijun-Sen on the 4 hours time frame. 1 HOUR (H1) Wonderful school study case shown on the hourly chart with a DOUBLE TOP in progress (second top higher than the first !) coupled with a RSI BEARISH DIVERGENCE. TRIGGER LEVEL @ 2.5650. - Target if broken 2.48 which corroborate the previous view expressed on H4 Have a nice trading day. IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
TVC:US30Y
by Ironman8848
BTC - WEEKLY- BREAKOUT ?WEEKLY (W1) Last week price action triggered a LONG WHITE CANDLE , usually a BULLISH SIGNAL with its weekly closing level (@ 46'864) for the first time, since the beginning of 2022, above the WEEKLY CLOUDS TOP ZONE (@ 45'937) and also the MID BOLLINGER BAND (45'505). RSI above 50 @ 53.21 and the LAGGING LINE above the weekly clouds with still the TENKAN-SEN as last resistance level to break... In addition the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement @ 46'721 of the 69'000 - 32'950 downside move has been filled and with the top of the weekly clouds in resistance too, we may see some consolidation within the clouds. Should the Bitcoin continue its upside move, then the NEXT KEY VERY IMPORTANT RESISTANCE LEVEL will be @ 50'975 as it is the WEEKLY KIJUN-SEN & 50% Fibonacci retracement previously mentioned. A WEEKLY CLOSING ABOVE 50'975 WOULD DEFINITELY CONFIRM A WEEKLY TREND REVERSAL IN REOPENING THE DOOR FOR MUCH HIGHER LEVELS !!! DAILY (D1) Yesterday's price action has invalidated the RISING WEDGE PATTERN i mentioned in my previous analysis in making an intraday peak @ 47'766 so far. The upside of the BROAD TRIANGLE PATTERN has also be broken for the first time and today's price action and more important its closing level will be very important to look at as it will validate or invalidate the recent upside breakout. RSI @ 69.61 and LAGGING LINE far above the clouds. 4 HOURS (H4) Strong move seen yesterday's evening in one H4 candle (from 44'864 to 46'950) - long white candle) which broke the former high @ 45'137 First significant support to look at in this time frame is @ 46'030 (TENKAN-SEN) ahead of the KIJUN-SEN @ 45'201 and the MID BOLLINGER BAND @ 44'859 1 HOUR (H1) As mentioned in H4 a long white candle breakout the former ongoing sideways channel and crossed over both the KIJUN-SEN and the TENKAN-SEN, which now become the new supports levels to watch at and which are @ 46'815 (TS) and 46'111 (KS): MBB @ 45'792. H1 clouds support area 44'595-44'377 IRONMAN884. & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC- 1 HOUR - SIDEWAYS PRICE ACTION...Today, we are going to look at the hourly time frame which is showing a sideways price action between the former high @ 45'<37 and the bottom of the hourly clouds support zone, currently @ 43'900. RSi above 50, @ 54.58. LAGGING LINE is looking tired, also moving in a sideways mode. Currently below the Tenkan-Sen (44'765) and still slightly above both KIjun-Sen and Mid Bollinger Band (44'555). As already mentioned in my yesterday's analysis (see related ideas below), and in oder to confirm further upside, the BTC need to clearly break and hold, ideally on a DAILY CLOSING BASIS the former high reached 2 days ago @ 45'137. Such kind of successful price action would put the focus on the weekly Mid Bollinger Band@ 45'193, ahead of the TOP OF THE WEEKLY CLOUDS RESISTANCE ZONE, currently @ 45'937; AN UPSIDE BREAKOUT CONFIRMATION OF THE CLOUDS BY THE WEEKLY LAGGING LINE WOULD ALSO ADD MORE VALUE FOR A CONTINUATION TO THE UPSIDE. A failure to hold above the hourly clouds support, currently @ 43'900, would open the door for lower levels towards 43'371 (38.2% Fib ret) - 43'458 is the level of the 4 hours Kijun-Sen !), ahead of 42'826 (50& Fib ret). Looking briefly at the DAIYL PICTURE, we can still see this RISING WEDGE PATTERN IN PROGRESS being in this BROAD TRIANGLE PATTERN on which the downtrend resistance line is under attack. As previously mentioned a DAILY CLOSING LEVEL above the former high (45'137) would be the first significant warning signal which should of course be validated. Watch if the usual pullback will hold (CONSOLIDATION ) or not. ( POTENTIAL BULL TRAP ! ) Do you like my analysis ? Do you think it bring you some added value ? If it is the case, please do not forget to like it and for those who do not follow me yet, please do not forget either to add Ironman8848 in your following list. Last but not least for those who do not have access to TRADING VIEW yet (one of the best CHARTING APPLICATION available in the market yet :-), please click on the following link (several plan available, the first plan being free of charge) : www.tradingview.com HAVE A NICE SUNDAY AND ALL THE BEST. Take care and have fun. IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC-240 MIN - WATCH 45'200 AND 43'000 !On the 4 hours chart, there are 2 levels to watch at carefully which are the following : UPSIDE. : 45'200 DOWNSIDE : 43'000 Indeed, a sustainable breakout of one of those 2 levels, would : 1) either confirm further upside (in breaking the former high @ 45'137 which would open the door for higher levels towards the top of the weekly clouds area, currently @ 45'937, by the way the upcoming weekly closing level will also be very important to look at as it may or may not validate the breakout of the upside weekly to clouds resistance level ! 2) confirm the failure to maintain its upside bias in crossing down below the ongoing support trend line (around the 43'000 level) which also, roughly coincides with the Kijun-Sen level @ 43'019 Current price action is showing an attempt to breakout the Tenkan-Sen (@ 44'377) which, if broken, on a 4 hours closing basis, would be the first signal of a potential short term reversal in putting the focus towards the next support previously mentioned. RSI is looking "tired and the LAGGING LINE is losing some momentum too... Have a nice weekend and all the best. Take care IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - DAILY - RISING WEDGE IN PROGRESS !As mentioned in my yesterday's analysis,(RSI bearish divergence), the successful breakout of the former high @ 43'492 triggered further upside move towards, as expected, a high so far above the 45'000 area, with an intraday high so far 45'137. We can see on this DAILY chart to different patterns : 1) A BROAD TRIANGLE PATTERN (currently attempting to breakout to the upside) 2) A RISING WEDGE FORMATION IN PROGRESS (potentially warning bearish signal !) What does it mean ? Well, today's closing level will may be bring more clues about the future development as the 44'800-45'000 area should be seen as an important zone to break at it represents on one hand, the downtrend line resistance of the triangle pattern previously mentioned and on the other hand the top of the rising wedge pattern in progress. Therefore, a failure to successfully breakout the 45'000 area would put again a renewed selling pressure with 42'600 as first support level, ahead of 41'250 and 40'671, the latter level being the MID BOLLINGER BAND. ON THE UPSIDE, the weekly MBB @ 45'408 will be the first resistance level to look at ahead of the top of the weekly clouds, currently @ 45'937. GLOBALLY ON A WEEKLY PICTURE, WE ARE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET, THE KIJUN-SEN STILL IN RESISTANCE ! IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC- 240 MINUTES - RSI BEARISH DIVERGENCE !Today, we are going to look at the 240 minutes chart where a RSI BEARISH DIVERGENCE has been identified. In addition to this signal, a potential double top formation is also in progress with its trigger level @ 41'779, just above the level of 41'705 I mentioned to watch yesterday on my DAILY ANALYSIS. So watch now carefully ongoing price action in shorter time frame which will help you to get more clues and which will validate or invalidate this potential double top in progress. First support to look at is @ 42'600 (TS) , ahead the ongoing support trend line (in green), currently @ 42'280, which also coincides with the Mid Bollinger Band and which usually works quite well as leading indicator; slightly below 42'000, there is the Kijun-Sen @ 41'971 which is the last support before the double top trigger level previously mentioned @ 41'779 A breakout of this level would target a downside move towards the the 40'000 area which is also by the way the bottom of the clouds area in this H4 time frame. On the UPSIDE , a successful sustainable recovery above the former high @ 43'492 would neutralise this ongoing downside risk and would put the focus on the former high above 45'000 seen at the beginning of March. IRONMAN8848. & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC-DAILY-WATCH 41'705 !Sharp recovery seen yesterday-long white candle, (intraday high @ 43'337) with a daily closing @ 42'393. So what next ? Watch and monitor carefully ongoing price action and especially today's closing level ! Indeed, a failure to close above 41'705 (middle level of yesterday's long white bullish candle) would trigger a DARK CLOUD COVER (potential reversal pattern) which should be confirmed by by a breakout of the Kijun-Sen, @ 41'174. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the last 37'568-43'337 rally is @ 41'133 Tenkan-Sen @ 40'740 and MBB @ 40'115 (61.8 % Fib ret @ 39'771, middle of the daily clouds support area !) RSI @ 55.03 and LAGGING LINE did not breakout the clouds resistance yet On the upside, a daily closing above 42'500 would neutralise the ongoing still existing dowside risk and would open the door for yesterday's high ahead of the former downtrend line resistance (in red) currently around 44'635 GLOBAL PICTURE IS SHOWING A BROAD TRIANGLE PATTERN IN PROGRESS As usual, watch at shorter time frames to get intermediate clues which will validate or invalidate implications above mentioned in the DAILY analysis. IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - DAILY - WARNING !VERY THIN DAILY CLOUDS SUPPORT...WEEKLY (W1) Last week price action, long white candle, could be seen, as first glance as a positive signal, in this time frame. The only negative point is that the BTC did not manage to recover above the high of the previous week (42'592) !. indeed the high seen was slightly lower @ 42'405 Therefore, this failure is still confirming the STRATEGIC BEARISH STRUCTURE in the WEEKLY TIME FRAME RSI is below 50, @ 45.60 LAGGING LINE is still in the clouds and also below both the TS and KS LEVELS TO WATCH ON WEEKLY CLOSING BASIS ARE THE FOLLOWING : UPSIDE : MBB @ 45'209 & CLOUDS TOP @ 45'937 DOWNSIDE : TS @ 39'400 & CLOUDS BOTTOM @ 37'710 DAILY (D1) Yesterday's price action triggered a long black candle (bearish engulfing pattern) with an intraday low reached @ 40'930, slightly above the THIN DAILY CLOUDS SUPPORT AREA , which was yesterday between 40'817 and 40'268 and which is currently between 40'238 and 39'772. MID BOLLINGER BAND , currently @ 40'219 should once again be seen as a very good indicator for further development, following slightly below by the Tenkan-Sen @ 39'986 and finaly by the Kijun-Sen @ 39'828. Last but not least this CLUSTER SUPPORT coincides also exacly with the DAILY CLOUDS and therefore should not be underestimated on both side , respectively firstly as THE DAILY SUPPORT AREA and if broken as the new resistance area to look at. In order to neutralise this ongoing downside risk the BTC, should at least recover and hold on a daily closing basis above 41'750. which is the middle of the yesterday's bearish candle as such kind of price action would trigger a PIERCING LINE and therefore, would neutralise this ongoing downside risk in reopening, potentially the door for a new attempt of crossing over the former highs (42'405 &4 2'592) On the downside, a failure to hold above the CLUSTER previously mentioned would add further selling pressure and put the focus on lower levels towards 39'400 (TS weekly), then towards the former daily congestion support (37'600-37'000) RSI slightly above 50, @ 51.58 LAGGING LINE currently in the middle of the clouds and still above both the KS and TS 4 HOURS (H4) The target (40'703) of the double top pattern, I mentioned yesterday in my previous analysis has been reached and the 50% Fib ret @ 40'558 too, intraday low being @ 40'516. After this recent downside move and those short term targets reached, a recovery attempt took place, which has been triggered by a RSI bullish divergence triggered on shorter time frame (H1). Watch 41'238 - 41'680 as short term recovery targets. H4 MID BOLLINGER BAND IS @ 41'461 and a H4 closing above this level would be the first warning signal of a short time bottom in place On the other side, a failure to hold above the 40'500 area would put the focus towards the H4 clouds support around the psychological 40'000 level (50% Fibonacci retracement @ 39'986 and 61.8% @ 39'415, which also coincides with the weekly tenkan-sen @ 39'400 1 HOUR (H1) Watch the CLOUDS as resistance level (roughly the Fib ret too) IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC-H4-DOUBLE TOP IN PROGRESS !Today we are going to look carefully at the price action on the 4 hours chart which can validate or invalidate further upside as the BTC is facing an important resistance area to break on a DAILY BASIS (42'500),last closing being just below this level @ 42'235. So, this 4 hours time frame is showing 2 important things : 1) a double top in progress with its trigger level @ 41'554 (also H1 clouds support area)- breakout confirmed on H4 closing basis would target 40'703 - if breakout occured watch and monitor pullback attempt closely ! 2) RSI divergence On the upside , a successful recovery above the Tenkan-Sen (41'979) would neutralise, on this H4 time horizon the ongoing downside risk and would reopen the door for higher levels. On the downside, the former downtrend line resistance, currently around the 41'000 area is the first support, ahead of 40'703 (DT target) and the 50% Fib ret @ 40'557 (37'568-42'405) A DAILY CLOSING LEVEL below the top of the clouds @ 40'800 would be seen as a negative signal for the upcoming trading session )s) ! On a weekly basis, the main support level remains the Tenkan-Sen @ 39'400 ahead of the weekly clouds support bottom @ 37'637; and on the upside, in this time frame watch the top of the clouds @ 45'433 which also coincides with the top of an ongoing weekly downtrend channel. Have nice Sunday. IRONMAN8848. & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC-DAILY-BROADENING WEDGE !WEEKLY (W1) The high of previous week @ 42'592 has nearly been retested again with a high reached yesterday @ 42'362 A weekly closing level above 42'592 would neutralise the downside risk in that time frame and increase the chance for a STRATEGIC TREND REVERSAL ! DAILY (D1) Yesterday's price action between the cluster support(40'200-39'800) with a low reached @ 40'068 and the intraday high reached @ 42'362 with a daily closing level @ 41'794, for the first time, since a while, above the DAILY CLOUDS TOP RESISTANCE LEVEL @ 40'800 . Yesterday's price action is the first warning signal of a TREND REVERSAL ans a mentioned in W1 a daily closing above 42'262 would confirm it and would open the door for higher levels Therefore today's ongoing price action should be monitor and watch at very carefully with the focus on the daily closing level which would validate or invalidate further upside move ! RSI @ 55.10 LAGGING LINE above both TS and KS but still i the clouds. 4 HOURS (H4) Above the clouds, the KS, the TS and the MId Bollinger Band @ 41'089 which should be seen, i this H4 time frame as the first significant support level and a failure to hold above it on H4 closing basis would increase the selling pressure in putting the focus to the 40'000 support area, which also coincides with the top of the 4 HOURS CLOUDS ! 1 HOUR (H1) Above the clouds too, but both MBB and TS already, currently, under downside breakout attack ! Watch upcoming H1 closing to get validation or invalidation of this breakout IRONMAN884 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC-DAILY-CLOUDS STILL IN RESISTANCE !WEEKLY (W1) Still in the weekly clouds roughly in the middle of it and still above the TENKAN-SEN (@ 39'400) which should be watch carefully on the next weekly closing level. Indeed, a failure to close above it would put the focus again to the bottom of the clouds around 37'600 (former congestion support on daily chart) DAILY (D1) Daily clouds still in resistance and the 40'800 area should be seen as a KEY PIVOT LEVEL for further development ! Indeed, a successful and sustainable breakout of that level (top of the daily clouds) would open the door for higher levels towards the former high @ 41'694 reached two days ago ahead of the 42'500 area (1 month top of the clouds !) and then towards the ongoing downtrend line resistance, currently around 44'200. A failure to do it, would directly put the focus to the CLUSTER SUPPORT ZONE 40'200-39'800 and a breakout of 39'800 on a daily closing basis would add further selling pressure calling for further downside towards the 37'600-37'000 former daily congestion support as already previously mentioned in W1. RSI slightly above 50, @ 52.56 LAGGING LINE in the clouds, currently testing the TS and KS support. 4 HOURS (H4) Above the clouds and currently traded around the Tenkan-Sen level (40'898) RSI @ 59.29 LAGGING LINE still in the clouds and above the Kijun-Sen In this 4 hours time frame, watch the clouds (39'880-39'232)on the downside as first significant support area and the former high @ 41'694 as the first resistance. A failure, on a 4 hours closing basis, to recover and hold above 40'898 would add further selling pressure for the upcoming trading hour (s). 1 HOUR (H1) Watch the clouds which worked perfectly well, so far as a good leading indicator in this short term time frame. A failure to hold above 39'900 (1 hour closing basis), would be seen as the first warning signal calling for further downside as previously mentioned in longer time frames. IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC-DAILY-WATCH THE CLOUDS !WEEKLY (W1) Ongoing recovery attempt, currently roughly in the middle of the weekly clouds and above the Tenkan-Sen @ 39'400 A next weekly closing above 39'40O should be seen as a positive signal in this weekly time frame. DAILY (D1) Yesterday's price action triggered a long white candle which reached an intraday high @ 41'694 BUT CLOSED BELOW THE TOP OF THE DAILY CLOUDS RESISTANCE AREA @ 41'399 Once again an upside breakout of the top of the daily clouds is crucial for moving higher; therefore, the today's closing level of the ongoing candle might give additional clues the the upcoming trading session (s). Indeed, a CLEAR BREAKOUT CONFIRMED of the CLOUDS , would open the door for higher levels towards the 42'500 area (former high) ahead of the ongoing downtrend resistance line (top of the triangle pattern !) currently @ 44'265. A failure to do it, would reopen the door for the former RESISTANCE CLUSTER which became the NEW SUPPORT CLUSTER, currently between 40'100 and 39'800 which also coincides with the ongoing support trend line... then the focus will be on the 37'500-37'000 former congestion support. RSI above 50, @ 52.45 LAGGING LINE in the middle of the CLOUDS , slightly above the Kijun-Sen but still below both the Tenkan-Sen and the Mid Bollinger Band . 4 HOURS (H4) Currently above the clouds and above TS, KS and Mid Bollinger Band (39'565) which coincides, currently with the 4 hours clouds support bottom ! RSI @ 60.45 LAGGING LINE still in the clouds ! LEVELS TO WATCH IN THIS H4 TIME FRAME ARE THE FOLLOWING : UPSIDE : 41'694 DOWNSIDE : 40'000-39'565 1 HOUR (H1) Above the clouds but already below both Tenkan-Sen and Mid Bollinger Band; still above the KS @ 40'426 An hourly closing below 40'426 should be seen as a warning signal of a short term top in place ! The hourly clouds support area is also currently between 40'100 and 39'900 which corroborate the observations mentioned in D1 Do you like my analysis and do you find it add value on your trading strategies, if YES, please do not forget to like it and for those who do not follow me yet on TRADING VIEW, please do not forget either to add IRONMAN8848 in your following list. Last but not least if you do not have access to TRADING VIEW yet (one of the BEST CHARTING APPLICATION AVAILABLE AT THE MOMENT :-), you can sign up in clicking on the following link : www.tradingview.com And if you want to know more about IRONMAN8848, you also can have a look at :www.ironman8848.com Many thanks in advance and best regards Take care and all the best IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTC-DAILY-TRIANGLE PATTERN IN PROGRESSDAILY (D1) Yesterday's price action, triggered a long white candle, which, usually is a BULLISH signal... but the failure to cross over and close above the CLUSTER (39'700-39'900 area) triggered new selling pressure which once again cross underthe ongoing daily support trend line, currently around 39'300 ! Interesting to note that the CLUSTER , also coincides roughly with the junction of both downtrend and uptrend resistance lines @ 39'800, respectively in red and green on this daily chart and also the TWIST in the daily clouds (very thin = very fragile, currently @40'770-41'025. On the downside, a daily closing below 38'714 (middle of the yesterday long white candle) would make a DARK CLOUD COVER add further selling pressure over the upcoming trading sessions, in reopening the door for lower levels towards the former congestion bottom 37'500-37'000 ahead of the 35'000 area. lower daily closing level seen at the end of January. RSI @ 45.90 LAGGING LINE below the clouds and below the Kijun-Sen ! Global daily picture is showing a broad triangle pattern in progress (red and green lines) and remains BEARISH ! 4 HOURS (H4) The upside breakout of both Mid Bollinger Band and Kijun-Sen has been short lived ! Indeed, this bull trap breakout has been invalidated by a long black candle (bearish engulfing pattern) which pushed the Bitcoin again below the Tenkan-Sen. In this H4 time frame, the CLOUDS resistance area (40'145-41'250) remains the major resistance area to break in order to neutralise this ongoing downward pressure. A successful sustainable recovery above this area would force to a view reassessment of the EXPECTED BEARISH SCENARIO calling for lower levels; a failure to hold above the ongoing short term support trend line, currently @ 37'750 ahead of the former low @ 37'193 would confirm further downside towards the 35'000 level and lower. 1 HOUR (H1) Hourly clouds support area (38'469-38'317) currently under attack and a failure to hold above the hourly clouds would also be the first short term signal for further downside. On the other hand, if the BTC managed to hold above the hourly clouds we can see a potential short term recovery towards 38'800-39'230 having still in mind that such kind of price action should still be seen as A TACTICAL CORRECTIVE MOVE, in a STRATEGIC BEAR TREND and therefore, managed accordingly in term of Risk Reward Ratio (trailing stop loss !) If you like my analysis, please do not forget firstly to like it and if you do not follow me yet on TradingView, please also add IRONMAN8848 in your following list and for those who do not have access to TRADING VIEW (The BEST charting application available for the moment) please sign up in clicking on the following link : www.tradingview.com Many thanks in advance. Have a nice trading day and all the best. Take care. IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTC-DAILY-PULLBACK ?WEEKLY (W1) Weekly closing @ 37'790 just slightly above the weekly clouds support level @ 37'516. We, very often, hear "jamais 2 sans 3" and we saw the third weekly candle closing, in a row, above the bottom of the weekly clouds support area... Ongoing price action is showing a recovery attempt within the clouds and in this weekly time frame, we have to wait the next weekly closing level which will give more clues for the next week (s) WEEKLY PIVOTS LEVELS : 32'950 45'850 DAILY (D1) Last daily price action triggered an additional bearish black candle which closed @ 37'790, below the former uptrend support line ! Today's ongoing recovered price action should be seen, for the time being as a CORRECTIVE PULLBACK ONLY, towards the former support trend line. Indeed, as already mentioned, the CLUSTER of MBB, KS and TS is still the first significant resistance area (39'700-39'900) to break in order to neutralise, temporary this downward pressure, which is still alive ! Above it, the DAILY CLOUDS RESISTANCE AREA should also be clearly broken on a daily closing basis in order to reopen the door for higher levels towards the ongoing daily downtrend resistance line) ON THE DOWNSIDE, no change in my view 37'500-37'000 as the first support area to look at, ahead of the 36'250/35'000 next support zone. 4 HOURS (H4) In recovery mode, currently above both TS and MBB, and facing the KS resistance @ 39'201 ! Above the next resistance level will be the 38.2% Fib ret @ 39'486, ahead of the 50% Fib ret @ 40'079 (also roughly the bottom of H4 clouds resistance area !) then the 61.8% Fib ret @ 40'672 (H4 top clouds resistance zone) On the downside, a failure to clearly break and hold on H4 closing basis above KS woul, again put the focus towards the former low around 37'500 ahead of the former daily congestion bottom @ 37'000 ahead of 36'250/35'000 KEY SUPPORT PIVOT LEVEL @ 32'950 1 HOUR (H1) Corrective recovery from the intraday low of 37'567 towards a high so far of 39'220 (doji !) and H1 clouds in resistance ! IN THIS HOURLY TIME FRAME,WATCH THE CLOUDS (39'000-39'300) ON THE UPSIDE AND 38'600-38'400 ON THE DOWNSIDE. Do you like my analysis ? Do you find it bring added value to your trading activity ? If YES, please do not forget to like it and for those who do not follow me yet on TradingView, please add Ironman8848 in your following list. Last but not least for those who do not have access yet, to TRADINGVIEW (the BEST charting application available for the moment (more than 30 millions users over the world !) please sign up in clicking on the following link : www.tradingview.com Have a nice trading week and all the best. Take care IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC-DAILY - WATCH 38'244 AND 39'900 AS PIVOT LEVELSOn the DAILY TIME FRAME , the 2 levels to watch at and monitor carefully still the same than yesterday : 1) ON THE DOWNSIDE : 38’244 (Former recent intraday low) 2) ON THE UPSIDE : 39’700 – 39’900 ( KS and TS Cluster) A breakout, on a DAILY CLOSING BASIS , of one of those levels, would have the following implications : DOWNSIDE : Focus will shift towards the 37’000, former congestion zone seen at the end of February ahead of the former low of Jan 24th around the 33’000 area. UPSIDE : Focus will shift towards the ongoing downtrend line resistance, currently around 41’250, ahead the main resistance of the DAILY CLOUDS , currently between 41’550 and 42’524, THE LATTER LEVEL (42’524) BEING THE KEY PIVOT LEVEL, WHICH IF CLEARLY BROKEN WILL FORCE TO A VIEW REASSESSMENT OF MY EXPECTED BEARISH SCENARIO CALLING FOR LOWER LEVELS RSI below 50, @ 46.72 LAGGING LINE moving, for the time being on a sideways mode, below the KIJUN-SEN. Last but not least the ongoing secondary uptrend support line (around 38'800 ) is currently under attack and and a failure to hold above this line, on a DAILY CLOSING BASIS, would also weigh on the BTC in increasing the selling pressure. 4 HOURS (H4) Currently below the clouds and the Mid Bollinger Band and just slightly below the TENKAN-SEN (39'056) Ongoing H4 closing level should give more clues for the upcoming trading hours. Indeed, the H4 clouds resistance area (39'532-41'250) should be seen as the main obstacle to cross over in this time frame; 39'904 being the 38.2% Fib ret, 40'418 the 50% ahead of 40'931 (61.8%) and also close to the top of H4 clouds. RSI @ 45.95 LAGGING LINE below the H4 clouds and below both TS and KS; still slightly above MBB Currently caught during the last 2 days, in a narrow trading range, between 38'700 and 39'500 1 HOUR (H1) Sideways price action, currently below the H1 clouds which are, at the moment, very thin = very fragile. A sustainable recovery above the hourly clouds would be the first signal, calling for a potential TACTICAL SHORT TERM REVERSAL, with, once again an upside potential pretty limited (Fibonacci retracements previously mentioned in H4) in this broad BEARISH STRATEGIC STRUCTURE !!! CONCLUSION : HAVING IN MIND A STRATEGIC VIEW, THE UPCOMING WEEKLY CLOSING LEVEL IN A COUPLE OF HOURS SHOULD GIVE ADDITIONAL CLUES FOR NEXT WEEK AS A FAILURE TO HOLD WITHIN THE CLOUDS WOULD BE SEEN AS A ADDITIONAL WARNING SIGNAL, CALLING FOR LOWER LEVELS; THE LAST 2 WEEKS, THE BTC MANAGED TO CLOSE AND HOLD ABOVE THE BOTTOM OF THE WEEKLY CLOUDS AREA ! Will the BTC be able to repeat the price action of the 2 previous weeks and hold above the bottom of the weekly clouds ? Answer in a few hours... Have a nice Sunday and all the best. Take care, IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - DAILY - CLUSTER RESISTANCE @ 39'700-39'900 !DAILY (D1) After having, yesterday reached an intraday low @ 38'244 in testing the ongoing support trend line, the BTC closed @ 38'780 , below the clouds and the cluster of Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen and last but not least, below the MID BOLLINGER BAND too ! Therefore, on the DAILY TIME FRAME, there are 2 levels to watch at and monitor carefully, and this on a DAILY BASIS , and those levels are the following : 1) ON THE DOWNSIDE : 38'244 (Former recent intraday low) 2) ON THE UPSIDE : 39'700 - 39'900 (KS and TS Cluster) A breakout, on a DAILY CLOSING BASIS, of one of those levels, would have the following implications : DOWNSIDE : Focus will shift towards the 37'000, former congestion zone seen at the end of February ahead of the former low of Jan 24th around the 33'000 area. UPSIDE : Focus will shift towards the ongoing downtrend line resistance, currently around 41'250, ahead the main resistance of the DAILY CLOUDS, currently between 41'550 and 42'524, THE LATTER LEVEL (42'524) BEING THE KEY PIVOT LEVEL, WHICH IF CLEARLY BROKEN WILL FORCE TO A VIEW REASSESSMENT OF MY EXPECTED BEARISH SCENARIO CALLING FOR LOWER LEVELS RSI below 50, @ 46.97 LAGGING LINE moving, for the time being on a sideways mode, below the Kijun-Sen. WEEKLY (W1) Under the influence of a MAJOR DOUBLE TOP FORMATION IN PROGRESS WITH ITS TRIGGER LEVEL @ 28'600 !!! Currently supported by the clouds bottom support but below the Tenkan-Sen (39'400). Upcoming weekly closing will give more clues and will validate or invalidate the weekly bottom clouds support @ 37'516. A weekly closing below 37'516 would be seen as a warning negative signal for the upcoming week ! 4 HOURS (H4) Currently above the H4 junction of the support trend line and the ongoing downtrend line resistance @ 38'700... but below the CLOUDS ! The 39'500 area mentioned in my previous analysis, published yesterday morning, should once again be seen as the first significant resistance level (middle of the 2 long candles (the white and the black) seen yesterday, upside acceleration which has been short lived and invalidated by the next long black candle (bearish engulfing pattern) and also rejected by both the Kijun-Sen and the Mid Bollinger Band (H4 closing basis) In term of Fibonacci retracement, the 38.2% is @ 39'904 (filled yesterday, intraday high being 40'237), the 50% @ 40'418 and the 61.8% @ 40'931, this level being also, roughly the top of the H4 clouds resistance (41'174) On the downside, same view than for D1 1 HOUR (H1) There are, potentially a double bottom and a double top in progress ... (+ / - 1'993) Watch the trigger levels which are respectively : For the double bottom @ 40'237 , breakout confirmed would open the door for a technical target @ 36'251 For the double top @ 38'244 , breakout confirmed would open the door for a technical target @ 42'230 Have a nice weekend. All the best and take care. IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC-DAILY-WARNING DARK CLOUD COVER !Looking briefly at the ongoing weekly time frame picture we can see a TRIANGLE PATTERN IN PROGRESS and a recent price action attempting to downside breakout the WEEKLY CLOUDS SUPPORT LEVEL (37'516) intraweek low being @ 37'169. RSI is below 50,@ 41.76 LAGGING LINE is roughly in the middle of the CLOUDS UPCOMING WEEKLY CLOSING LEVEL WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT AGAIN TO LOOK AT AND WILL VALIDATE OR INVALIDATE ONCE AGAIN THE THIRD ATTEMPTING IN A ROW TO BREAKOUT THE BOTTOM OF THE WEEKLY CLOUDS SUPPORT DAILY (D1) Yesterday's price action triggered a DARK CLOUD COVER (BEARISH SIGNAL) with a closing level (39'444), below : 1) the clouds 2) the Tenkan-Sen 3) The Kijun-Sen AND LAST BUT NOT LEAST BELOW "MY BAROMETER", THE MID BOLLINGER BAND (39'658) The intraday low so far @ 38'244 also coincides with the ongoing uptrend support line and may be seen as a short term minor support RSI @ 45.34 LAGGING LINE , below the clouds, the Tenkan-Sen, the Mid Bollinger Band and the Kijun-Sen Overall, following the failure before yesterday to recover and hold sustainably above 42'524 ( have a look at my yesterday's analysis) and the yesterday's bearish price action, the GLOBAL DAILY PICTURE REMAINS HEAVY SUPPORTED BY THE ONGOING PERSISTING DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON THE WEEKLY TIME FRAME... 4 HOURS (H4) The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement extension @ 38'329 has been filled. Currently, below the clouds, Tenkan-Sen, Kijun-Sen and Mid Bollinger Band. RSI @ 39.89 LAGGING LINE below all the important indicators ! No signal of short term reversal yet, in this H4 time frame 1 HOUR (H1) Potential short term potential recovery (RSI bullish divergence) with an upside move, f or the time being pretty limited towards 39'000-39'500 , the latter level being the KIJUN-SEN and also the bottom of the H4 clouds resistance area. CONCLUSION : STRATEGIC PICTURE REMAINS GLOBALLY BEARISH and for the time being any recovery should be seen as a CORRECTIVE MOVE ONLY in a BROAD BEAR TREND and therefore, TACTICAL EXPOSURE (countrertrend ! ) should be managed accordingly in adopting a disciplined RISK REWARD APPROACH in having always in mind : IN WHICH TIME FRAME AM I TRADING, very short term, short term, medium or long term ! This methodology will allow you to put in place a trading plan which will be in perfect adequation with your objectives in terms of time horizon and targets. On the upside I reiterate what I told yesterday, in that only a sustainable move above 42'524 on a daily closing level would force to a view reassessment of my strategic bearish scenario calling for lower levels, with, of course, due to this high volatility current environment, plenty of TACTICAL TRADING OPPORTUNITY which should, as previously mentioned, managed accordingly in placing trailing stop losses to protect your potential profits. Do you like my analysis ? If YES, please, do not forget to like it and for those who do not follow me yet on trading view, please add IRONMAN8848 on your following list and for those who do not have access yet to TRADING VIEW (the best trading application available for the moment) please sign up in clicking on the following link : www.tradingview.com Have a nice trading day and may your long goes up and your short goes down. All the best and take care. IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848