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Ironman8848

BTC-MIGHT BE A BOUGHT THE NEWS AND SELL THE FACT...Indeed, a strong recovery took place early in the morning following "a NEWS" and this could be interpreted as a "BUY the news and SELL THE FACT" ! The Bitcoin recovered in short period of time (less than 2 hours !) from 39'400 towards an intraday high so far of 41'896.37, in filling on its way up the 38.2% and the 50 % Fibonacci retracement, respectively @ 40'287 and 41'250. THE MAIN KEY RESISTANCE AND PIVOT LEVEL IN THIS DAILY TIME FRAME REMAINING @ 42'524 WHICH IS THE TOP OF THE DAILY CLOUDS RESISTANCE AREA ! $ As long as this level is not clearly broken, recent and current price action should still be seen as a corrective move only. RSI recovered also above the 50 area and is currently @ 53.67 LAGGING LINE also recovered above the KIJUN-SEN and is currently attempting to cross over the TENKAN-SEN 4 HOURS (H4) The upside breakout of the downtrend line resistance, coupled with the breakout of the MBB, TS and KS triggered this sharp rebound which is currently attempting to hold above the H4 clouds. Watch and monitor carefully the ongoing H4 closing level which will be the first warning signal of a validation or invalidation of the top of the clouds breakout, which also coincides with the 50 % Fibonacci retracement previously mentioned in D1 (downside move from 45'332 towards 37'169) RSI @ 64.96 LAGGING LINE currently above the clouds Interesting to note the "thin layer" of the H4 clouds which means fragility on both sides !!! 1 HOUR (H1) Above the clouds and above MBB, KS and TS. First support in this H1 time frame is the TENKAN-SEN @ 40'192 ahead of the KIJUN-SEN @ 39'943 and the MID BOLLINGER BAND @ 39'352 Interesting also to note that the hourly clouds support area is very, very thin... CONCLUSION : On the downside the psychological 40'000 area should be seen as a pivot level for further development; indeed, a failure to hold sustainably above this level would put again the focus on lower levels (former congestion support 39'000-37'000 area) On the upside , a successful daily closing above 42'524 would force to a view reassessment of the still expected bearish scenario and would open the door for higher levels towards the former high @ 45'332 with intermediate resistance of the ongoing daily downtrend resistance level, currently around 44'800. Last but not least, have also a look at the weekly time frame which is showing a recovery attempt, currently roughly in the middle of the clouds; ongoing weekly candle closing will also be important to look at as it will also validate or invalidate the INVERTED HAMMER PATTERN, I mentioned in my previous analysis ! IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC-WEEKLY-INVERTED HAMMER...WEEKLY (W1) $ Last week price action triggered an INVERTED HAMMER PATTERN, which usually should be seen as a bullish warning signal; nevertheless, in this case, I would remain very cautious before to conclure that the downside pressure is over and we can see a STRATEGIC TREND REVERSAL ; the weekly closing level @ 38'438 was below the TENKAN-SEN ! Indeed, the ongoing weekly price action should validate this Inverted hammer pattern and a sustainable recovery should occur in order to do it; in addition, a failure to hold above the bottom of the clouds on a weekly basis, would invalidated this potential reversal pattern and put further pressure to to downside, calling for lower levels towards the former bottom zone 35'000-33'000. RSI below 50, @ 41.34 LAGGING LINE currently in the middle of the weekly clouds support area. THE STRATEGIC KEY PIVOT LEVEL ON THIS WEEKLY TIME FRAME IS @ 28'600 WHICH SHOULD BE SEEN AS THE MOST IMPORTANT SUPPORT LEVEL !!!! Watch the CLOUDS as the LEADING INDICATOR (37'500-44'000) DAILY (D1) Yesterday's closing level @ 38'438 was the third daily closing level below the daily clouds and below the former downtrend line which became the new support and which has also been broken too. RSI is below 50, @ 43.07 LAGGING LINE is already below the Kijun-Sen and also below the Mid Bollinger Band ! The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement @ 38'528 has been broken on a daily closing basis and the next support level to look at is @ 36'679 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) ahead of the 35'000 area (former uptrend support line). A breakout of the 35'000 support area would put the focus on 34'324 (former intraday low of Feb 24th ahead of the low of 32'950 reached on Jan 24th. In this daily picture, only a sustainable recovery above 40'000 (daily clouds bottom & Mid Bollinger Band) would neutralise temporary this ongoing persisting downside risk !!! LAST BUT NOT LEAST ONLY A RECOVERY ABOVE 42'524 would force to a view reassessment of the expected BEARISH SCENARIO calling for lower levels ! 4 HOURS (H4) Currently below : 1) the clouds 2) the Kijun-Sen 3) the Mid Bollinger Band 4) the Tenkan-Sen RSI below 50 @ 32.42 LAGGING LINE currently in the middle of the H4 clouds ! Watch both Tenkan-Sen (@ 38'646) and the Mid Bollinger Band (@39'430) as the first levels which should be broken to neutralise this ongoing downside rise ! The main resistance area in this 4 hours time frame remains the clouds resistance area between 39'828 and 42'722. Any short term recovery should be seen as a CORRECTIVE MOVE ONLY in a BROAD STRATEGICALLY BEAR TREND and therefore, as already mentioned several times, in my previous analysis, any countertrend exposure should be managed with a strict disciplined approach in applying an appropriate RISK REWARD RATIO which will depend on your TACTICAL TIME FRAME HORIZON ! Watch and monitor closely price action on shorter intraday time frames which will help you to get clues for further development. Have a nice trading week and all the best. Take care. IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
GOLD FUT- W1 - EN ROUTE FOR 2'161 !FIRST BREAKOUT ON A WEEKLY CLOSING BASIS OF THE DOUBLE BOTTOM TRIGGER LEVEL @ 1'919 (WEEKLY CLOSING WAS 1966.60) PULLBACK ON RSI HOLD AND RECOVERED; currently above 50 @ 68.21 LAGGING LINE ABOVE FORMER HIGH = positive signal too On the downside the first support to look at is at 1'878 (TS) ahead of 1'848 (KS) and MBB @ 1'827 which is also the top of the weekly clouds support zone (weekly clouds range from 1'827-1'778) Warning ! Despite this weekly positive picture, watch carefuly the daily price action which is showing a RSI bearish divergence and which could trigger some short term downside correction, potentially towards the daily TS currently @ 1'928 IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Ironman8848
1
ETHEREUM - WEEKLY - WATCH THE CLOUDS !WEEKLY (W1) Currently in a STRATEGIC DOWNTREND , roughly in the middle of the weekly clouds support area ! Ongoing weekly candle is, as for the BTC in progress for a potential INVERTED HAMMER , which of course should be validated or invalidated by the current candle closing ! During this week, the Ethereum failed to recover and hold above the TENKAN-SEN @ 3'033 (short lived intraday weekly high @ 3'044) RSI below 50, @ 40.69 and LAGGING LINE below both KIJUN-SEN and TENKAN-SEN ! GLOBAL WEEKLY PICTURE REMAINS HEAVY in this weekly picture, watch the following levels : 2'919 (top of the weekly clouds) 2'348 (bottom of the weekly clouds & former uptrend support line) A CLEAR BREAKOUT OF ONE OF THOSE POINTS WOULD RESPECTIVELY OPEN THE DOOR FOR : DOWNSIDE : 1'914 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the Long term rally starting @ 86.62 in March 2020 towards the ATH @ 4'870.51 reached in November 2021. 1'700 former weekly congestion bottom UPSIDE : 3'033 (TENKAN-SEN) 3'272 (Ongoing downtrend line resistance) 3'522 (KIJUN-SEN) CONCLUSION : Watch and monitor closely shorter time frames, in beginning with the DAILY (currently below the clouds and below both TS and KS and also below the MBB) then H4,(potential double bottom in progress !!) H1(same than H4) and 15 minutes, to detect early potential bullish divergences signals which will give you the opportunity to initiate TACTICAL LONG POSITIONS, COUNTERTREND !!! This should be managed carefully in adopting a RISK REWARD RATIO accordingly IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
GEMINI:ETHUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTC- STILL BELOW THE DAILY CLOUDS...Looking briefly at the WEEKLY picture, a potential INVERTED HAMMER is in progress which usually is considered as a REVERSAL PATTERN (Wait weekly closing for confirmation of this pattern) In addition watch carefully the bottom of the weekly clouds support area @ 37'516, already tested once this week; a failure to hold above that level on a weekly closing too would add further downward pressure to the BTC for the upcoming week RSI below 50 @ 43.15 and the LAGGGING LINE is still in the clouds. Currently still below the TENKAN-SEN @ 40268. A weekly closing above the TENKAN-SEN previously mentioned would be positive for the upcoming trading sessions. DAILY (D1) Yesterday's price action triggered an HAMMER pattern with its closing level @ 39'417, below the daily clouds support level @ 40'054 Ongoing today's price action is showing an upside attempt to recover in the clouds ahead of crossing over the MBB , currently @ 40'323. IMPORTANT LEVELS TO WATCH ON A DAILY CLOSING BASIS ARE THE FOLLOWING : 40'825 (middle of the March 4th, long black candle !) 38'590 (former bottoms & potential double bottom !) A breakout of one of those 2 levels should trigger respectively an upside move towards, respectively to the Tenkan-Sen @ 41'174 and ahead of the top of the clouds(42'524) first, and potentially higher towards the former high @ 45'332, while on the downside, a failure to hold above38'590, should put the focus on the former daily congestion bottom around the 37'000 area, which has already mentioned in my previous analysis. Interesting to note the fragility of the 37'000 - 35'000 trading range. RSI below 50 @ 46.65 and the LAGGING LINE still above the KIJUN-SEN. 4 HOURS (H4) Below the CLOUDS , currently attempting to recover within the clouds area (39'652-41'875 Above the TENKAN-SEN @ 39'150. MID BOLLINGER BAND @ 40'580, roughly in the middle of the clouds resistance area. CONCLUSION : Once again, watch and monitor very carefully price action on shorter intraday time frames ! That will either validate or invalidate the implications of the scenarios previously explained. IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC-WARNING...BELOW THE DAILY CLOUDS !Yesterday's price action triggered a NEW LONG BLACK CANDLE which closed below the daily clouds @ 39'175 (intraday low @ 38'590) Currently below both the TENKAN-SEN @ 41'174 and the MID BOLLINGER BAND @ 40460 RSI below 50, @ 44.82 LAGGING LINE testing the KIJUN-SEN ! And last but not least, yesterday's closing was also below the former downtrend resistance (red line !) Today's price action will be very important and will validate or invalidate 2 important things : 1) THE CLOUDS SUPPORT BREAKOUT 2) THE FORMER DOWNTREND RESISTANCE LINE WHICH BECAME THE NEW SUPPORT (PULLBACK) A DAILY CLOSING BELOW 38'500 would confirm further downside towards, firstly the former daily congestion zone around the 37'000-36'700 area ahead of the former lows 34'324-32'950. On the upside, a first breakout of the TENKAN-SEN @ 41'174 would temporary neutralise the ongoing downside risk and then should be confirmed by the top daily clouds @ 42'524 (this latter level has already been mentioned yesterday) 4 HOURS (H4) Currently below : 1) The ongoing downtrend line 2) The Mid Bollinger Band 3) The Kijun-Sen 4) The Tenkan-Sen 5) THE CLOUDS LAGGING LINE TESTING THE CLOUDS SUPPORT AREA AND ATTEMPTING TO CROSS UNDER ! RSI far below 50, @ 28.42 (No bullish divergence yet in this H4 time frame), still converging to the downside Watch the clouds area (39'290-40'635) as a good indicator for upcoming trading hours as an upside breakout of the TOP OF THE CLOUDS (also the KS) would reopen the door for a potential upside towards the cluster of Kijun-Sen (41'961) & Mid Bollinger Band (42'201). As usual, watch shorter intraday time frames to get glues and early signal (such as RSI bullish divergence) which will help you to validate or invalidate the implications previously mentioned in longer time frames. Finally, do not forget to put in place a strict and disciplined RISK MANAGEMENT when you act TACTICALLY in STRATEGICALLY COUNTERTREND (RISK REWARD RATIO depending on your time frame trading action !) IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC-DOUBLE TOP TARGET @ 41'108 FILLED !The technical target (41'108) of the double top formation mentioned yesterday in my previous analysis has been filled (intraday low @ 41'077). Yesterday's price action, third black candle in a row is confirming the expected trend reversal. The BTC is currently , roughly in the middle of the DAILY CLOUDS SUPPORT AREA, close to the MID BOLLINGER BAND @ 40'729 ahead of the CLUSTER of KS and TS, respectively @ 40'087 and 39'828; the latter level also coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 34'324-45'332 recent rally. VERY IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE BOTTOM OF THE DAILY CLOUDS CURRENTLY @ 39'565 IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE TENKAN-SEN AND SHOULD BE SEEN AS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT LEVEL IN THIS DAILY TIME FRAME. Indeed, A FAILURE TO HOLD 39'565 on a DAILY CLOSING BASIS , would weigh further on the BTC and would open the door for much lower levels towards the former congestion support area around the 37'000 level. RSI is still above 50, @ 51.22... but converging to the downside. LAGGING LINE is below the clouds and close to the Tenkan-Sen. A sustainable recovery above 42'524 (top of the daily clouds) would neutralise temporary the ongoing downside risk. 4 HOURS (H4) Below : 1) The Mid Bollinger Band 2) The Tenkan-Sen Currently attempting to breakout the Kijun-Sen support. A breakout of the Kijun-Sen (@ 41'400) , on a H4 closing basis, would add further selling pressure and would put the focus on the H4 CLOUDS SUPPORT AREA, CURRENTLY BETWEEN 38'000 AND 37'340 RSI below 50 @ 42.36, converging to the downside LAGGING LINE still above the clouds, Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen. 1 HOUR (H1) Below : 1) the clouds 2) the Kijun-Senb 3) the Mid Bollinger Band 4) The Tenkan-Sen In this time frame, next support to look at is @ 40'192 (61.8% Fib ret of the last move from 37'015 toward 45'332 ahead of 38'794 which is the 78.6% Fib extension retracement. RSI below 50, @ 27'98, converging to the downside, no bullish divergence yet. LAGGING LINE is currently attempting to breakout the H4 clouds bottom level @ 41'225. CONCLUSION : As usual watch an monitor very closely intraday shorter time frames price action which will firstly validate or invalidate the implications previously mentioned in longer time frames and secondly those shorter time frames will give you clues regarding potential BULLISH DIVERGENCES which if seen should be used as a TACTICAL TRADING OPPORTUNITIES and therefore MANAGED WITH A DISCIPLINED RISK MANAGEMENT APPROACH (Risk Reward Ratio depending on your time frame !) If you like my analysis and you find it is valuable for you, please do not forget to like it and for those who do not follow me yet, please, also add Ironman8848 on your following list. Last but not least, for those who do not have access to Trading View yet, (one of the best trading application available at the moment, you can sign up in clicking on the following link : www.tradingview.com Have a nice day All the best and take care Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC-D1-REVERSAL IN PROGRESS...GLOBAL PICTURE DAILY (D1) After having reached, yesterday, an intraday high @ 35'332 and nearly achieved a full Fibonacci retracement (former high @ 45'850), the BTC lost momentum and as a result, closed slightly above the middle of the previous white candle which mean, that yesterday's price action, roughly triggered a DARK CLOUD COVER (Bearish warning signal); today's ongoing downside price action is currently confirming this downward selling pressure and a DAILY CLOSING BELOW 43'000 would weigh further on the BTC and therefore open the door for lower levels. Daily clouds area is between 42'524 and 39'093 RSI still above 50, @ 57.93 LAGGING LINE failed to enter in the daily clouds and is in progress to reverse too. The MID BOLLINGER BAND, my own barometer,is currently @ 40'825 and also roughly in the middle of the daily clouds support; this level should be watch at very carefully as a daily closing below this point. would directly put the focus towards the daily clouds bottom around the 39'000 level. WEEKLY (W1) A quick look at the weekly char shows , for the time being a failure to breakout the weekly top clouds resistance area ! Watch the clouds in this time frame as a broad indicator for further development. 4 HOURS (H4) DOUBLE TOP FORMATION IN PROGRESS , coupled with a double doji and a RSI BEARISH DIVERGENCE !!! Trigger level @ 43'220 Technical target (in case of downside breakout confirmed) @ 41'108 Interesting to note that the H4 Kijun-Sen is @ 41'174 and should also be seen as a PIVOT LEVEL in this H4 time frame 1 HOUR (H1) As for H4, a double top formation is in progress. Currently, already, below : 1) Kijun-Sen 2) Mid Bollinger Band 3) Tenkan-Sen 4) the clouds The double top target @ 41'108, coincides also roughly with the H1 clouds bottom support @ 41'241; the 50 % Fibonacci retracement of the 37'015-45'332 recent rally is @ 41'173 LAGGING LINE below TS and KS but still above the clouds. IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC-H1-TRIANGLE BREAKOUT IN PROGRESS !Looking at the intraday hourly price action, a TRIANGLE PATTERN has been identified ! Indeed, after having reached a high @ 44'981 which triggered a RSI BEARISH DIVERGENCE, the BTC moved in a sideways, slightly down price action, in making a TRIANGLE PATTERN which is currently in a downside breakout progress (watch pullback !) which will validate or invalidate this triangle formation. A breakout confirmation would open the door for a technical target @ 42'280 ! 38.2% Fibonacci retracement @ 41'937 (37'015-44'981 rally) 50 % Fibonacci retracement being @ 40'998 (also the KIJUN-SEN) which is also the hourly clouds bottom support area and which should be seen as a PIVOT LEVEL in this short term hourly time frame. Interesting to note that 41'110 is currently the level of the MID BOLLINGER BAND on the 4 HOURS time frame A CLEAR BREAKOUT OF THE 41'000 WOULD PUT THE FOCUS AGAIN ON THE 39'000-37'000 FORMER CONGESTION SUPPORT AREA IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
3
BTC - STRONG RECOVERY !As mentioned in my previous analysis, shorter time frames should be used to validate or invalidate the expected scenario and in the case of the Bitcoin yesterday's price action has really been a school case... Indeed, the BTC went sharply up and broke successfully the resistance levels on each intraday and daily pictures. FOR THE TIME BEING, THE BITCOIN IS STILL IN THE WEEKLY CLOUDS RESISTANCE AND NEXT WEEKLY CLOSING WILL VALIDATE OR INVALIDATE A BREAKOUT OF THE TOP OF THE CLOUDS. The MONTHLY FEBRUARY CLOSING LEVEL @ 43'178.98 WAS AS THE SAME LEVEL THAN THE LONG TERM DOWNTREND RESISTANCE LINE MONTHLY (M1) February closing level was above both the KIJUN-SEN @ 36'425 and the Mid Bollinger Band @ 38'706 At the same level tha n the long term downtrend resistance line. Ongoing March price action will validate or invalidate this upside breakout at the end of the month. WEEKLY (W1) Above the Tenkan-Sen @ 40'268 but still in the clouds and below the Mid Bollinger Band and the Kijun-Sen RSI below 50, @ 47.56 DAILY (D1) Yesterday's sharp recovery went up towards an intraday high of 44'256, filling in its way the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement extension @ 43'383 and with a daily closing above the clouds @ 43'179 RSI above 50 @ 58.69 Today's closing level will be important and will validate or invalidate the top of the clouds breakout. Important to note that the 37'000 support level hold well. 4 HOURS (H4) Above the cluster of KS and TS @ 40'635 which should now be seen as the new support level area in this H4 time frame 1 HOUR (H1) Currently still above the Tenkan-Sen @ 42'953 and in this short term time frame the BTC looks to lose some momentum... CONCLUSION : Again watch shorter intraday time frames and monitor carefully price action in each time frame which as seen yesterday, will validate or invalidate price action on longer time frames. IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
US 10 YEARS - CONSOLIDATION ?WEEKLY (W1) Looks like a corrective move which should, for the time being, be seen as a consolidation phase or pullback towards the triangle pattern breakout level ! Indeed, looking at the weekly picture, we can identify two important support levels, which are the following : S1 : 1.7960 (Tenkan-Sen) also roughly the 38.2% Fib ret (@ 1.7850 % of the last 1.3360 %-2.0630 % move S2 : 1.6600 (Kijun-Sen and Mid Bollinger Band) and former downtrend line resistance which became the new support Interesting to note that the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is @ 1.6140 % which roughly coincides with the apex of the triangle pattern ! A breakout of 1.66 would put the focus on the weekly clouds support zone & 78.6 % Fib ret extension @ 1.4920 % On the upside, the triangle technical target remains @ 2.33 % and is still alive. RSI above 50, @ 65.33 LAGGING LINE far above the clouds and KS and TS DAILY (D1) Currently still above the daily Kijun-Sen @ 1.8850 Next support on a Daily basis are the following : S1 : 1.7850 % S2 : 1.7000 % s3 : 1.6140 % (bottom of the daily clouds support area) RSI above 50, @ 51.07 LAGGING LINE far above the clouds and also above both TS and KS CONCLUSION : Watch and monitor very carefully price action on shorter intraday time frames (H4, H1 and 15 minutes) to get clues which will help you to validate or invalidate the implications of the scenarios above mentioned for longer (D1 and W1 time frames) Have a nice trading week. All the best and take care IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
TVC:US10Y
by Ironman8848
NQ1 100MF-ONGOING STRATEGIC DOWNTREND !WEEKLY (W1) Last week price action triggered a sharp decline which reached nearly my technical target @ 12'894 (low being @ 13'015). After having briefly broken the weekly clouds support, the Nasdaq recovered nicely (HAMMER) and closed roughly at the top of the week @ 14'180 (high being 14'196). Nevertheless, it failed to cross over the secondary downtrend line resistance and also to breakout the weekly top clouds resistance zone. This failure should be seen as a negative signal for the ongoing price action which is expected to move lower towards the bottom of the weekly clouds support zone, currently @ 13'182, slightly above the last week former low @ 13'025 On the upside, the first significant resistance level to look at is @ 14'125 (ongoing secondary downtrend line resistance) ahead of the weekly top clouds resistance area, currently @ 14'618 and more important the TS & KS cluster (14'894-14'896) ahead of "MY BAROMETER", THE MID BOLLINGER BAND ƒ 15'390 RSI below 50 @ 37'30. converging to the downside LAGGING LINE below TS and KS DAILY (D1) Friday's price action, LONG WHITE CANDLE, has been rejected by the Kijun-Sen (14'183), in resistance, Ongoing price action is showing an attempt to hold above the Tenkan-Sen @ 13'847. RSI below 50, @ 40.58 LAGGING LINE far below the clouds and KS and TS. A daily closing below 13'725 would trigger a DARK CLOUD COVER and would add further selling pressure towards lower levels towards the former lows On the upside, a daily closing above the KS @ 14'183 would temporary neutralise the ongoing downside risk; indeed, above this first resistance, the next one will be the Mid Bollinger Band (@ 14'423) and last but not least, still the DAILY CLOUDS which should be seen as the MAJOR RESISTANCE AREA BETWEEN 15'000 AND 15'250 4 HOURS (H4) Currently caught between the Mid Bollinger Band in support and the Tenkan-Sen in first resistance... Above, watch the H4 clouds resistance area, currently between 14'026 and 14'324 On the downside, MBB @ 13'741 ahead KS @ 13'611 Watch shorter intraday time frames to get clues which will help you to validate or invalidate the implications of scenarios previously mentioned for D1 and W1. Have a nice week All the best Take care IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD- CRITICAL LEVEL FOR THE LAST W1 CLOSING !WEEKLY (W1) Another high volatility price action seen last week between a low of 34'324 and a high of 40'330... which provided, several TACTICAL TRADING OPPORTUNITY IN A BROAD BEAR TREND WHICH RESTARTED TWO WEEKS AGO @ 45'850 !!! Failure to hold above the psychological 40'000 and close above 40'225 which is the middle level of the previous weekly long black candle should be seen as an additional negative signal. Indeed, the last weekly closing level @ 37'712 was just slightly above the weekly clouds bottom support @ 37'360 which means, that once again, CLOUDS should be watch at very carefully. THIS WEEKLY CLOSING WAS BELOW THE TENKAN-SEN (40'268) WHICH ALSO COINCIDES ROUGHLY WITH THE 40'222 IMPORTANT RESISTANCE LEVEL PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. RSI below 50, @ 40.80. LAGGING LINE below both Kijun-Sen and Tenkan-Sen and currently, roughly in the middle of the clouds ! In this weekly time frame, LEVELS TO WATCH AT, ARE THE FOLLOWING : UPSIDE : R1 : 40'268 R2 : 42'170 R3 : 43'937 DOWNSIDE : S1 : 37'516 S2 : 35'020 S3 : 32'950 A FAILURE TO HOLD ABOVE THE FORMER LOW @ 32'950 WOULD DIRECTLY PUT THE FOCUS TOWARDS THE PSYCHOLOGICAL 30'000 LEVEL AHEAD OF THE MOST AND VERY, VERY, VERY IMPORTANT 28'600 LEVEL (DOUBLE TOP TRIGGER LEVEL !!!) DAILY (D1) Last daily closing (37'712) below the clouds (38'050) but was just slightly above the Daily Tenkan-Sen @ 37'397. The Tenkan-Sen should be seen as a good support indicator in this daily time frame as a failure to hold on a daily basis closing above it would open the door for lower level towards the 37'000 area which is the bottom of the price action seen over the last couple of days. A daily closing below 37'000 would be another negative signal for the upcoming trading sessions the 37'000-35'000/34324 trading range looks very fragile ! RSI below 50, @ 4125 LAGGING LINE below the Kijun-Sen but still slighly above the Tenkan-Sen. 4 HOURS (H4) After having roughly tested the 37'000 support level (intraday low so far being 37'015), below the H4 clouds support, the BTC is currently attempting to recover. Currently above the Kijun-Sen @ 37'327 (also 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last 34'324-40'330 rally) BUT below the Tenkan-Sen @ 38'451 and the Mid Bollinger Band @ 38'817. THE MID BOLLINGER BAND and the TOP OF THE 4 HOURS CLOUDS CURRENTLY @ 39'755 SHOULD BE SEEN AS THE LEVELS TO BREAK IN ORDER TO CONFIRM THIS SHY RECOVERY. On the DOWNSIDE, a failure to hold on a H4 closing basis above 37'000 would also be an additional warning signal calling for further downside towards 36'618 (61.8% Fib ret) ahead of 35'609 (78.6% Fib extension) in this H4 time frame. RSI below 50, @ 44.64 LAGGING LINE still above KS and TS Last but not least, watch the last price action seen over the last 2 candles (2 successive DOJIS) which means growing uncertainty and indecision !!! HOURLY (H1) Below the clouds, the Mid Bollinger Band and the Kijun-Sen. Just above the Tenkan-Sen @ 37'696 In this H1 time frame watch 37'696-37'400 as the first support zone and on the upside watch the cluster @ 38'450-38'500 ahead of the clouds resistance area 39'000-39'200 CONCLUSION : The BITCOIN remains in a BROAD STRATEGIC BEAR TREND and is for the time being, STRATEGICALLY SPEAKING, A SELL ON RALLY AND NOT YET A BUY ON DIPS !!! Nevertheless, as already mentioned several times, there are plenty of TACTICAL COUNTERTREND TRADING OPPORTUNITIES which should monitored and managed accordingly in applying a strict and appropriate RISK MANAGEMENT approach and this depending of your targets and your time frame !!! Do you like my analysis and do you find that it add some value of your trading activity, so, please do not forget to like it and for those who do not follow me yet, please do not forget either do add IRONMAN8848 on your following list on TradingView. For those who do not have access to TradingView, (at the moment, the best charting application) you can click on the following link (several plans available :-) : www.tradingview.com Many thanks in advance.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTCUSD-50% FIB RET @ 40'087 FILLEDWEEKLY (w1) The 50% Fibonacci retracement @ 40'087 of the last downside move (45'850-34'324) has been filled , intra-day high being 40'330. Upcoming weekly closing level will be very important for further development; indeed, a weekly closing above 40'225 would trigger a PIERCING LINE PATTERN, which would be a first positive bullish signal for the next week. DAILY (D1) Currently roughly in the middle of the clouds resistance zone with its top level @ 42'524 which remains, on a DAILY BASIS, the pivot level to break. Last daily closing @ 39'231, just slightly below the TENKAN-SEN @ 39'264. The KIJUN-SEN @ 40'087 has briefly been broken on the recent price action but the BTC, failed, so far to hold above it ! There is a POTENTIAL SHOOTING STAR IN PROGRESS (wait daily closing level for validation or invalidation !) On the DOWNSIDE , the first significant support area remains the former congestion zone between 38'350 and 37'000. TS is @ 37'660 and daily clouds bottom @ 37'410. The LAGGING LINE is attempting to breakout both KS and MBB. RSI still below 50, @ 46.71 On the UPSIDE , THE 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is @ 41'447 ahead of the KEY PIVOT RESISTANCE LEVEL @ 42'524 previously mentioned. 4 HOURS (H4) Currently in the clouds zone (38'364-40'577) The TENKAN-SEN @ 38'826 which currently coincides with the ongoing short term uptrend line) is working as the first support level, area of the MID BOLLINGER BAND @ 37'907 and then the KIJUN-SEN @ 37'327 . RSI is moving sideways and showing some lack of momentum... 1 HOUR (H1) Currently in a RSI BEARISH DIVERGENCE MODE ! Watch carefully the H4 clouds bottom support zone @ 39'330 (in overlay in the hourly chart) ahead of the cluster of MBB and KS @ 39'200-39'180 as short term barometer indicators ! (closing basis) The H1 clouds support area is between 37'500 and 37'000 and for information the 50% Fibonacci Retracement of the last rally from 34'324 towards 40'330 is @ 37'327 CONCLUSION : Watch and monitor closely intraday short term time frames which would help you to validate or invalidate implications above mentioned in W1, D1 and H4 Have a great weekend and all the best. Take care. IRONMAN8848. & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
GOLD FUTURES - CONSOLIDATION MODE !Sharp rally seen yesterday which pushed the Gold Futures to an intraday high @ $ 1'976.50. An healthy corrective and consolidation move took place and this recent price action should be seen as a constructive price action calling for further upside over the upcoming trading sessions. Tenkan-Sen @ 1'911 should be the first level to look at on a daily closing level as a failure to hold above this point would put some selling pressure towards the Kijun-Sen @ 1'878, already been tested recently. Below the MID BOLLINGER BAND, currently @ 1'851 remains a good indicator and should be used as a BAROMETER ! The Lagging Line on a DAILY basis is far above the clouds. 4 HOURS (H4) The yesterday's low reached yesterday @ 1'878 coincides exactly with the top of the 4 hours clouds support and the clouds worked perfectly well in rejecting, so far, the downside breakout attempt. In this H4 time frame a failure to hold above the clouds support zone (1'860) would postpone a little bit the expected bullish scenario, calling for higher levels CONCLUSION : A FIRST BREAKOUT OF THE DOUBLE BOTTOM TRIGGER LEVEL @ 1'919 OCCURED YESTERDAY AND SHOULD BE CONFIRMED ON A WEEKLY CLOSING BASIS LATER ON TODAY. A CONFIRMATION WOULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR THE TECHNICAL TARGET OF THE DOUBLE BOTTOM @ $ 2'161 IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
COMEX:GC1!
by Ironman8848
BTC-AS EXPECTED HIGH VOLATILITY OCCURED...As expected and mentioned in my previous analysis published yesterday morning we saw an increasing volatility which triggered a trading range between 34'324 reached early yesterday morning towards an intraday high @ 39'720. WEEKLY (W1) Main levels to look in this weekly time frame remains : UPSIDE : 42'524 /43'673 DOWNSIDE : 37'365 DAILY (D1) Currently in the bottom of the clouds. BUT STILL BELOW THE TENKAN-SEN @ 39'264, the KIJUN-SEN @ 40'087 and the MID BOLLINGER BAND @ 41'244 The 50% Fibonacci retracement @ 39'554 of the last downside move has been filled with an intraday high @ 39'720. There is a daily congestion support zone to look at, between 38'450 and 37'000... the daily clouds bottom support being currently @ 37'325 RSI below 50 @ 43.39 4 HOURS (H4) A BULLISH DIVERGENCE triggered the big rally and in this H4 time frame the BTC is currently above the TS and MBB @37'022) and above the Mid Bollinger Band @ 37'419. Neverteless, still below the H4 clouds resistance zone which is between 40'177 and 41'379 RSI above 50 @ 56.44 1 HOUR (H1) WARNING ! Bearish RSI divergence in progress ! Tenkan-Sen in support @ 38'395 in this short term intraday hourly time frame ahead of MBB @ 37'203 (which is also the ongoing short term uptrend support line) and the Kijun-Sen @ 37'022. A failure to hold, on H1 closing basis,above the Tenkan-Sen @ 38'395, would be the first warning signal of potential reversal and a breakout of the 37'000 area would give confirmation for further downside ! CONCLUSION : Despite the sharp rally seen yesterday, THE BTC IS STILL, STRATEGICALLY SPEAKING, in a BEAR TREND , and recent price action, was still a CORRECTIVE MOVE IN A BROAD STRATEGIC BEAR TREND A DAILY CLOSING ABOVE THE TENKAN-SEN @ 39'265 WOULD BRING THE FIRST WARNING SIGNAL OF A BOTTOM IN PLACE HAVING IN MIND THAT, AS LONG AS THE TOP OF THE CLOUDS @ 42'524 WILL NOT BE CLEARLY BROKEN ON THE DAILY BASIS... THE DOWNSIDE RISK WILL REMAIN ! IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
3
BTC-D1-WATCH THE CLOUDS & RSI !As expected and mentioned in my previous analysis, the recovery attempt has been short lived and the failure to recover above the 39'000 area triggered a new wave of selling pressure which pushed sharply down the BTC towards an intraday low of 34'324 !!! After this sharp decline, it is likely to see some little recovery which, in this broad bearish strategic picture, should be seen as a corrective move only. Watch H4 and H1 for tactical view. STRATEGIC VIEW : MONTHLY (M1) Ongong bearish picture. Currently below the CLUSTER OF MBB (36'704) AND KIJUN-SEN (36'425) 61.8% Fibonacci retracement @ 28''737 78.6 % Fib ret extension @ 17'792 RSI converging to the downside WEEKLY (W1) Currently below the clouds ! Next significant support level @ 32'950 former low ahead of the psychological 30'000 level. THE VERY IMPORTANT SUPPORT LEVEL REMAINS 28'600 0 WHICH IS : 1) The Double top trigger level (Warning, warning and warning ¨) 2) Roughly the 61.8% Fibonacci retraccemtnt (28'737) of the big 3'850-69'000 rally. This level should really be seen as THE KEY PIVOT LEVEL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMEN T and it is likely to be difficult to break straightly ! A CLEAR AND SUSTAINABLE BREAKOUT OF 28'600 WOULD CREATE GREAD DAMAGE FOR THE BTC WHICH IS ALREADY CURRENTLY IN TROUBLE, HAVING IN MIND, OF COURSE, A LONG TERM BROAD PICTURE.... DAILY (D1) Below the clouds. Lagging line below the Tenkan-Sen @ 39'457, the Kijun-Sen @ 40'087 and the MBB @ 41'203 Watch price action on RSI In this daily time frame, only a clear recovery above 39'350, (as already mentioned in my previous analysis) would force to a view reassessment of the still ongoing downside strategic move... TACTICAL VIEW : 4 HOURS (H4) Currently below the clouds (41'339-42'117) Watch former low @ 36'370 as the first warning indicator of a potential intraday short term reversal. Then 36'823, 37'237 ahead of 37'656. A clear breakout of the MBB @ 37'656 would be constructive on this H4 time frame Watch also RSI price action to detect bullish divergence ! 1 HOUR (H1) Currently below the clouds too (37'755-37'931) TS @ 36'092 KS @ 36'813 (which is also the H4 Tenkan-Sen !) Watch the Mid Bollnger Band, currently @ 37'308 CONCLUSION : Al already mentioned several times in my previous analysis, there are, in this high volatility environment, plenty of tactical trading opportunities BUT NEVER FORGET TO ACT ACCORDINGLY WHEN YOU INITIATE POSITIONS COUNTERTREND AND PLACE STOP LOSSES DEPENDING ON YOUR TARGET AND YOUR TIME FRAME !!! Have a nice trading day All the best and take care IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
GOLD FUTURES-DOUBLE BOTTOM -WATCH 1919WEEKLY (W1) Gold still under the influence of a potential double bottom still in progress and very close to its trigger level @ 1'919. Lagging line far above the clouds. A BREAKOUT CONFIRMATION OF 1'919 WOULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR A TECHNICAL TARGET @ 2'161. Watch carefully price action around this important KEY PIVOT LEVEL (breakouts are usually followed by a pullback !) A failure to successfully confirm this upside breakout would put the focus on the Tenkan-Sen (1'849) which should be seen as the first significant support level to look at, ahead of the cluster of MBB and KS @ 1'819 (clouds support 1'828-1'777) DAILY (D1) Ongoing upward price action. Watch the Tenkan-Sen @ 1'869 as the first support in this daily time frame ahead of the Kijun-Sen @ 1849 RSI still converging to the upside and Lagging line far above the clouds too. 4 HOURS (H4) Warning ! poteniial BEARISH DIVERGENCE IN PROGRESS in this H4 time frame and growing uncertainty about intraday short term development (dojis !) Monitor and watch closely price action (intraday basis) 1 HOUR (H1) The yesterday's intraday high @ 1'918 triggered a SHOOTING STAR and looking at the following candles we can see small candles (lack of momentum and follow through) which may trigger some downside move which for the time being should be seen as a consolidation and corrective move only. Indeed, only a clear breakout of the hourly clouds support around 1'890 would be a more serious warning signal ! IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Ironman8848
1
BTC-D1-STRATEGIC PICTURE REMAINS HEAVY!DAILY (D1) The BTC is currently below : 1) the weekly clouds 2) the daily clouds still slightly above the monthly clouds bottom, currently @ 36'061. Yesterday's closing level @ 37'076, below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (37'877) ! Persisting selling pressure which is likely to push the BTC lower towards the next support level around the 37'000 area (lower recent daily closing level) ahead of the 78.6 % Fibonacci retracement extension @ 35'710. RSI below 50, @ 33.96. still converging to the downside The LAGGING LINE crossed under the Tenkan-Sen. GLOBAL PICTURE REMAINS, STRATEGICALLY HEAVY ! Recoveries attempts seen over the last couple of days have been short lived with an upside potential pretty limited, providing better level to sell the BTC. That is why, as already mentioned several times, it is very important to be very disciplined in trading tactically, countertrend, against the strategic downtrend.Do not forget to place stop losers accordingly in respecting the rule of the Risk Reward Ratio !!! Looking to the UPSIDE, the daily clouds (39'350-42'500) should be seen as the main resistance area in which you will find intermediate resistance levels which are the following : R1 : 40'577 R2 : 40'680 R3 : 41'465 4 Hours (H4) Currently below KS, MBB and TS. Watch RSI price action on closing basis level (potential bullish divergence in progress) should be confirmed ! 1 Hour (H1) Same comment than H4 , watch next closing level which will validate or invalidate a potential RSI bullish divergence. CONCLUSION : In this strategic downward trend, tactical trading opportunities will appear but as already told, stay cautious and use a strict RISK MANAGEMENT APPROACH IN FONCTION OF THE TIME FRAME YOU ARE LOOKING FOR ! Have a nice trading day. Alll the best and take care. IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
NASDAQ 100 - ONGOING DOWNTREND...WEEKLY (W1) Ongoing downside price action, close to the former low of 13'706 reached in January ahead of the first technical target I am still calling for @ 12'894 (see my previous analysis), which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the big rally (6'628.75 - 16'767.50) A move towards this level would confirm a downside breakout of the clouds bottom support, currently @ 13'170 and therefore would add further selling pressure. RSI @ 36.48 is still converging to the downside. Only a sustainable recovery above 14'550 (weekly top clouds area) would neutralize the ongoing downside risk and would force to a view reassessment of this expected bearish scenario. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE UPSIDE KEY PIVOT LEVELS REMAINS BETWEEN 15'182 AND 15'436 !!! Last but not least, do not forget that even if the NQ1 reached 12'894, it would only be the 38.2% Fib ret and therefore there is still plenty of space below towards the 50% Fib ret @ 11'698 with intermediate support around 11'300 (monthly clouds bottom area). DAILY (D1) WATCH THE SECONDARY DOWNTREND LINE RESISTANCE , currently @ 14'350 AS THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT RESISTANCE TO BREAK on this daily time frame. Downside : watch carefully at the ongoing price action and at the daily closing level (potential bullish divergence !! 4 HOURS (H4) Potential RSI bullish divergence in progress (wait for ongoing candle closing) for validation or invalidation 1 HOUR (H1) Also potential RSI bullish divergence ! check ongoing candle closing price !) IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Ironman8848
BTC-61.8% FIB RET@37'877 NEARLY FILLED!WEEKLY (W1) The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement @ 37'877 has roughly been filled with an intraday reached yesterday 37'974... Nevertheless, global picture remains heavy ! Indeed, last week price action triggered a LONG BLACK CANDLE with its closing level nearly at its bottom which is usually a bearish confirmation of the ongoing trend. In addition, the previous candle was already, as mentioned last week, a first warning reversal signal ( SHOOTING STAR !) IN THIS WEEKLY TIME FRAME LEVELS TO LOOK AT ARE THE FOLLOWING : UPSIDE : 42'524 (TENKAN-SEN) AHEAD OF THE TOP OF WEEKLY CLOUDS DOWNSIDE : 37'260 (WEEKLY CLOUDS BOTTOM) DAILY (D1) Last closing below the Daily clouds ! RSI @ 39.93 (no bullish divergence yet in this daily time frame !) After having nearly filled the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement , it is usual to see a recovery attempt which is currently in progress... Daily closing later on today, will give in this time frame the temperature for the upcoming trading sessions ; indeed, a daily closing above the bottom of the clouds (also the middle of the yesterday's black candle) will trigger a PIERCING LINE pattern, which would be the first signal of a reversal continuation. A daily closing above the opening of the previous candle (40'000) would even give additional value for further upside as in this case we would have a BULLISH ENGULFING PATTERN ! Next significant resistance being the TS and the Mid Bollinger Band ("My barometer"), currently, respectively @ 41'400 &41600 On the downside, a failure to hold above the former low @ 37'974 would open the door for lower levels towards the 35'000 area first ahead of 32'950 (January low). 4 HOURS (H4) Successive dois, finally triggered this upside recovery attempt; currently facing the first significant resistance level in the 4 hours time frame, which is the Mid Bollinger Band , currently @ 39'650 ! A sustainable move and H4 closing above 39'650, would temporary neutralize this ongoing downside risk which is still weighing on the BTC. HOURLY (H1) Ongoing short term recovery in progress...with the first obstacle (hourly clouds) which should firstly be broken in order to confirm further upside... 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ot the last downside move is @ 39'540 ! CONCLUSION : As usual, watch and monitor closely price action from shorter intraday time frames, which will help you to validate or invalidate the implications previously mentioned in longer time frames. HAVE A NICE WEEK :-) Take care and all the best IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTC-D1-FOLLOW THE CLOUDS...DAILY (D1) Yesterday's price action (DOJI) is confirming this ongoing persisting downside move ! Indeed, the expected short term recovery has been short lived, providing better selling opportunity. The BTC nearly filled the 50% Fibonacci retracement @ 39'400 /intraday low being so far @ 39'492 and global picture remains heavy. Interesting to look at the shape of the daily clouds which still have some space to the downside for the upcoming daily trading sessions and also, important to note that the daily bottom clouds area coincides roughly with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement 37'877 and therefore should be seem as an important support level and as a pivot point in this daily time frame. On the upside, the daily pivot point remains @ 42'500 (top of the clouds !) with an intermediate resistance level between 39'500 and 40'000 WEEKLY (W1) Weekly closing level will give more clues about further development as, for the time being, it is not very encouraging either... SHORTER TIME FRAMES : As usual, watch and monitor shorter intraday time frames to get early signal of a BULLISH DIVERGENCE, which could provide short term tactical trading buying opportunities(countertrend !) and which should be protected with a trailing stop loss accordingly !!! Have a nice weekend, take care and all the best. Ironman8848. & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1