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Ironman8848

GOLD FUT-M1-WATCH MID BOLLINGER BAND !MONTHLY (M1) Ongoing double bottom formation in progress. December closing level (@ 1828.60), which is also above KS, TS and Mid Bollinger added further support, calling for higher levels. The double bottom trigger level is @ 1'919 and a breakout confirmation of this level would activate the ongoing double bottom formation in progress, calling for a technical target of $ 2'164.70 (new ATH). On the downside, a monthly closing below 1'767 would postpone this expected bullish scenario and force to a view reassessment of the situation. WEEKLY (W1) Currently facing the weekly clouds resistance zone; last weekly closing was : 1) above the Kijun-Sen 2) above the Mid Bollinger Band 3) above the Tenkan-Sen which should be seen as a positive signal calling for higher levels. A breakout of firstly, the ongoing downtrend line resistance (currently @ 1865) ahead of the top of the clouds @ 1'885 would open the door for the double bottom trigger level @ 1'919. On the downside, watch 1'796-1'775 on a weekly closing basis as the first significant support zone. DAILY (D1) 1) 61.8 % Fibonacci retracement @ 1'831 filled. 2) Last daily closing level above the daily clouds 3) Chikou-span already, above Kijun-Sen and currently testing Tenkan-Sen 4) RSI is converging to the upside Looks like that further upside will follow On the downside watch the 1'800 area as the first support on a daily closing basis, which also coincides with the daily clouds bottom zone. And as usual, watch shorter intraday time frames (H4, H1, M30, M15 and M5) to get additional clues which will give you more information about validation or invalidation of the implications previously mentioned. Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Ironman8848
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) - SHOOTING STAR !We are going to look at the long term picture (monthly) which triggered, on December closing basis, a SHOOTING STAR ! (similar pattern took place in April 2020...) Indeed, after having failed to upside breakout the monthly clouds resistance, the BTCUSD closed roughly at the bottom of the clouds. Therefore, last month price action should be seen as the first warning signal of a trend reversal in that long term time frame. Looking to the downside, we can see that the DXY is still supported by the ongoing support trend line, currently around 94.10/20 which also, roughly coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci of the last 0.89535-0.969380 rally. A failure to hold above this area would put the focus one figure lower towards the monthly cluster support zone of 93.20-0.9325. Watch also Chikou-span price action which is still, currently inside the clouds, below the MBB and the Tenkan-Sen and which also should breakout the clouds to the upside to confirm further upside ! On the upside, a next monthly closing level, in January, above the clouds would neutralize the ongoing downside risk. WEEKLY (W1) Second black weekly candle which closed just above the trigger level of a potential double top formation in progress. Globally still in an uptrend channel and above the first significant weekly support @ 95.38. Watch ongoing price action as a failure to stay, hold and close at the next weekly closing above that level would add further pressure to the downside, calling firstly for a move towards the uptrend channel support line (currently @ 94.75 ahead of the weekly cluster (94.47-94.37). DAILY (D1) Under the influence of a potential double top in progress, currently close to the trigger level @ 95.52 (also top of the daily clouds support zone ! A daily closing level below 95.52 would be the first warning validation signal for this double top pattern, calling for a technical target of 94.10 which, roughly coincides with the level of the long term (monthly) ongoing support line, above mentioned and last but not least with the bottom of the daily clouds support too. RSI is converging to the downside too. A daily closing above 96.25 on a daily basis would neutralize the ongoing downside risk and would put the focus again for a retest of the former highs around 97.00 Finally, watch carefully at the intraday shorter time frames to get clues which will help you to validate or invalidate the implications of the scenarios above mentioned. Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
TVC:DXYShort
by Ironman8848
2
BTCUSD-H4- WATCH MID BOLLINGER BAND !Firstly, I wish you an happy New Year, all the best and take care ! Today we are going to look closely at the recent and current price action on the 4 hours chart. We also will have a quick view on daily, weekly and monthly charts too with respective implications on longer time frames. H4 The long black candle which took place between 17:00 and 21:00 yesterday's evening triggered a RSI bullish divergence nearly at its bottom level (45'703). This price action has also triggered a double top formation with its trigger level at 48'589 (higher intraday level reached yesterday morning (bull trap - inverted Head and Shoulder invalidation !) Therefore, despite this recent recovery (3 white candles !!!) the BTCUSD did not managed to recover and close above the Mid Bollinger Band, which is currently @ 47'146 and which, once again should be seen as a good barometer on that H4 time frame and which will give more clues about further upcoming development. Important also to watch at the Chikou Span (Lagging Line) which is still far away below the clouds and TS and KS and which also should be seen as an ongoing bearish signal ! DAILY (D1) Former lows around 45'500 have been under attack and, for the time being rejected the downside breakout attempt. As long as, on a daily closing basis, the BTCUSD stays below the Mid Bollinger Band (currently @ 48'189) and more important the cluster (KS & TS 48'800-48'900) the global picture remains bearish. WEEKLY (W1) Ongoing price action is still pointing to the downside under the influence of the ongoing downtrend line resistance which has been tested this week. Next weekly closing will give more clues as currently, we can see a bearish engulfing pattern in progress (which would be confirmed with a weekly closing below 46'671) and which also, if confirmed, would cancel the previous long white candle which was a bullish engulfing pattern. Last but not least, if you look a the shape of the weekly clouds support you can see that for next week, the top support of the clouds are at around 42'000 which was the former low reached on Dec 4th 2021. MONTHLY (M1) December closing, below the Tenkan-Sen (@ 48'850) should be see as a negative signal calling for lower levels. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 28'700-69'000 rally is @ 44'094 and below the next significant support is @ 37'324 (78.6% Fib ret) ahead of the monthly cluster support @ 36'450-35'850 CONCLUSION : The BTCUSD remains on a BROAD BEARISH TREND and for the time being any recovery should be seen as a TACTICAL CORRECTIVE MOVE only; therefore, any countertrend position should be monitor very closely in screening shorter time frames, starting from M5 to longer intraday time frames to validate or invalidate the potential of any upside recovery attempt. Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
5
BTCUSD-H4-POTENTIAL INVERTED HEAD & SHOULDERSLooking at the 4 hours time frame (H4) a potential inverted Head and Shoulders is in progress. Neckline (currently around 47'800) coincides also with the Mid Bollinger Band resistance level and and breakout of those level on a H4 closing level would activate this reversal formation and open the door for a technical target of roughly 50'000...which is also the top clouds resistance area. On the downside watch 46'750-46'500 as the next support area as a failure to hold above this zone would put the focus on the former bottom around 45'500. On the hourly picture, the BTCUSD is currently within the H1 clouds in attempting to move higher; interesting to note that the top of the H1 clouds resistance, coincides also roughly with the level of the potential inverted Head and Shoulders formation in progress previously mentioned in H4 and a breakout of 47'800 (on H1 + H4) would warn of further upside in the cards and also corroborate the inverted H & S validation, calling for higher levels. Have a nice trading day. All the best and take care. Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTCUSD - D1/H4/H1 - WATCH MBB !Today we will look at different time frames and we will begin with the hourly chart, then the 4 hours and finally the Daily. 1 HOUR (H1) In this short term time frame we already can identify some minor bullish divergences which triggered this short term reversal which has already crossed over both the TS and KS, facing currently the Mid Bollinger Band which should be seen in this time frame as a good barometer for further development as a confirmation upside breakout of this level would open the door for the next resistance area which is the clouds resistance zone, currently between 48'000-49'700. On the downside, a failure to stay and hold(on H1 closing basis !) above 46'650 would be the first warning signal calling for a new downside move towards previous lows and ahead of the former congestion support bottom @ 45'500 Next hourly closing would give more clues.(bullish above MBB and bearish below !) 4 HOURS (H4) Last H4 closing level (@ 46'517) triggered a "DOJI" coupled with a bullish divergence which pushed the BTCUSD higher (in doing the last H4 white bullish candle) which closed a couple of minutes ago just below the Tenkan-Sen level. Therefore, as for H1, next H4 closing level would give more clues about validation or invalidation of what has been seen on H1 and will show the direction for further development. On the upside, next resistance to look at is the former sideways channel 47'300-48'100 (the latter level coincides roughly with the 23.6 % Fib ret @ 48'117). DAILY (D1) Still in its broad sideways 45'500-50'500 trading range with a potential signal of a recovery in progress which should be confirmed by a daily closing, at least above 48'500; indeed, such kind of recovery price action would neutralize the ongoing downside risk, which is still in place, for the time being. On the downside the bottom of the sideways channel previously mentioned should be seen as the last support zone before focusing again on the former low (42'000 area) reached on Dec 4th. WEEKLY (W1) Ongoing price action is showing a BTCUSD supported on one hand by the weekly clouds support zone which rejected three times on a row a downside breakout attempt and on the other hand rejected by the ongoing weekly downtrend line resistance. Next weekly closing will, "maybe" give more information for the future.. Have a nice day. Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD - D1/H4 - IN TROUBLE !Good morning, yesterday's long black candle, (after the shooting star, the day before !) activated my stop loss at 48'309. Indeed, the failure to hold above the former support zone (cluster of KS,TS and MBB, triggered an acceleration towards a low reached, so far at 47'300). Looking at this daily picture, I have to say that, currently the BTCUSD is in trouble ...and further downside should not be underestimated with focus on the triple bottom congestion zone around 45'500. In order to neutralise this ongoing downside move, the BTCUSD should recover at least above the Mid Bollinger Band (48'571) and even better above the Tenkan-Sen, currently @ 49'382. 4 HOURS (H4) Following the yesterday's sharp decline, the BTCUSD in that H4 time frame is currently below : 1) the Mid Bollinger Band 2) the Kijun-Sen 3) the Tenkan-Sen and last but not least : below the clouds too Price action seen on the three last candles is showing a sideways range with on the ongoing candle, showing currently a dark cloud cover (confirmation will be given with the ongoing H4 closing level), meaning that selling pressure persists. There is no bullish divergence detected yet and I would suggest to monitor carefully the ongoing price action which could trigger a double bottom formation, coupled with a potential bullish divergence (wait for confirmation !) Hourly (H1) Same observation than for H4, watch closely ongoing H1 closing price and upcoming trading hours price action which will give you more clues about further development. Looking briefly at the weekly picture, the last week bullish engulfing pattern is currently neutraliZed by a DARK CLOUD COVER in progress, which of course will be validated or invalidated on a weekly closing basis. WARNING !!! A weekly closing below 46'600 would trigger a BEARISH ENGULFING PATTERN!!!! Have a nice day Take care and all the best Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD -D1/H4 - CONSOLIDATION PHASE !DAILY (D1) After having nearly filled the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement @ 52'293 (yestedays'high at 52'098) the BTCUSD lost its momentum and went down, in a corrective move, to close on a daily basis @ 50'718; this price action triggered another shooting star, which warned of a potential downside move. Ongoing, today's price action confirmed this warning and as a result, the BTCUSD moved further down towards the cluster support level around 48'800. Once again the Mid Bollinger Band did perfectly its job in rejecting, for the time being the downside breakout attempt. An upside breakout of the KS @ 48'809 on a daily closing basis would give an additional support for this ongoing upside price action. On the downside, as long as the BTCUSD stays and hold above 48'500, the positive outlook remains valid. A daily closing below that point will have a negative impact and would open the door for lower levels towards former triple bottom congestion around 45'500. Stop loss remains @ 48'309 4 HOURS (H4) The corrective move went down towards an intraday low of 48'688, filling on its way the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last 45'573-52'098 rally. In addition the H4 clouds support zone rejected the downside breakout too. Currently attempting to cross over the ongoing downtrend resistance line around 49'400. A successful breakout of that level on H4 closing level should be seen as a positive signal, calling for higher level. A failure to do it would put the focus again on the H4 clouds support area (currently between 49'170-48'500) 1 HOUR (H1) Currently below the clouds, MBB, KS and TS. Price action seen over the last couple of hours is showing a recovery in progress which will be, firstly, confirmed by a successful cross over of the TS (currently @ 49'703); looking above the next significant resistance area to look at is the H1 clouds zone (50'375-50'600) Monitor also the Chikou span which is also currently below the clouds and a recovery of this indicator, above the clouds would also add value for the expected upside recovery. For your information and for those who did not see yet, Ironman8848 is again among the top authors on Bitcoin.(click on the link below) www.tradingview.com Therefore, if you like my analysis and you find it valuable for your trading, please do not forget to like it and follow me as well. Many thanks in advance. Have a nice trading day and all the best. Kind regards Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Bürki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Ironman8848
5
BTCUSD-W1-BULLISH ENGULFING PATTERN !Multi time frames analysis from Weekly (W1) to Hourly (H1) : WEEKLY (W1) : Last week's price action triggered a BULLISH ENGULFING PATTERN with an it is very important its closing level @ 50'791 above the Kijun-Sen ! Such kind of movement should be seen as the first warning positive signal on a weekly basis observation. In order to confirm this weekly strategic trend reversal, the BTCUSD needs, this week, on a closing basis level, to break the ongoing downtrend line resistance which also coincides with the Mid Bollinger Band and slightly higher the former uptrend line support. RSI, currently just above 50 @ 50.51 My strategic technical target @ 58'674 (stop loss @ 48'309) is still valid with intermediate resistance, respectively @ 52'294 ahead of 55'484 (this latter being also the level of the Tenkan-Sen or conversion line. This week's closing level would give more clues on a strategic view for the future. DAILY (D1) Recent and current price action should be seen as a constructive move, being still on the top range of its sideways channel and above : 1) The former downtrend resistance line 2) The Mid Bollinger Band & the Tenkan-Sen 3) The Kijun-Sen Nevertheless, stil below the clouds resistance area with the Chikou Span below the clouds too. RSI, currently just above 50, @ 50.53 First significant support on a Daily closing basis is @ 49'800 ahead of 48'720 On the upside, resistances are those above mentioned in W1 which also roughly coincides with the clouds resistance zone. 4 HOURS (H4) As expected, and after having filled, yesterday the first Fibonacci retracement @ 49'461 (38.2% of 45'573-51'865), the BTCUSD recovered nicely and is currently above : 1) The clouds 2) The Kijun-Sen 3) The Tenkan-Sen 4) The Mid Bollinger Band On this time frame watch (on H4 closing basis) the 50'670-50'000 as the support area as a failure to hold above that level would reopen the door for lower levels, towards the H4 clouds support area. 1 HOUR (H1) BEAR TRAP occured yesterday after a wrong clouds breakout; indeed a double bottom coupled with a RSI bullish divergence neutralized this downside breakout and as a result pushed the BTCUSD higher towards the top of the clouds. Currently holding slightly above the clouds and "flirting" with the Tenkan-Sen... Above the MBB and the Kijun-Sen. In this H1 time frame watch the bottom of the clouds as a good indicator for short term tactical price action. Have a nice week and all the best. Take care. Do you like my analysis ? Does my analysis bring you additional value ? If your answer is YES, please do not forget to like it and also follow me if it is not already done yet. Any "constructive" comments are more than welcome :-) Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Ironman8848
2
BTCUSD-D1/H4- WATCH MBB AND KS !DAILY (D1) Yesterday's closing price action below the important Kijun-Sen or Base Line, currently @ 50'533 and also the top of the former sideways daily trading range (45500-50500) As mentioned yesterday, the Doji shooting star triggered on Dec 24th has been timidly confirmed by a small black candle with a daily closing @ 50'442. Nevertheless, so far, such kind of price action could still be seen as a "normal" consolidation corrective move with next important support zone around 48'670 (MBB & TS cluster). A failure to hold above this level would reopen the door for lower levels, towards the former lows (bottom of the sideways trading range). Keep stop loss @ 48'309 on a daily basis and on a strategic trading perspective strategy. 4 HOURS (H4) The failure, on one hand, to cross over and close above the Tenkan-Sen (in H4 closing basis) and on the other hand to hold above the Mid Bollinger Band triggered this expected corrective move which pushed the BTCUSD towards a low so far of 49'644 (providing additional buying opportunity) Currently traded around the important psychological 50'000 pivot level, next H4 closing level would give more clues about further development. Watch also new ongoing downtrend resistance line (currently around 50'700), in this time frame as a successful recovery above it would add further support, calling for higher levels 1 HOUR (H1) Currently, slightly below the H1 clouds support zone, attempting to reenter in the clouds; in addition, for the time being the Chikou-Sen or Lagging line is still in the clouds. Watch also carefully price action in this time frame as a failure to hold at least above the bottom of the clouds or better to recover above 50'400-50'600 would maintain a short term downside risk. Have a nice Sunday and all the best. Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD-D1-ON THE RAZOR'S EDGE !DAILY (D1) After a nice ongoing rally which pushed the BTCUSD towards a intraday high of 51'864, lack of followthrough pushed it down again to close (@ 50'841) just slightly above the pivot level I mentioned yesterday @ 50'608; yesterday's price action triggered a new "DOJI SHOOTING STAR" and more important at a level which should be seen as the razor's hedge for further development. Indeed, ongoing today's daily price action should give more clues for the upcoming trading session and this will mainly depends on the level of the closing price later on today. A failure to close above 50'608 should be seen as a warning signal calling for a consolidation move (fragile zone 50'500-48'700, the bottom of this zone being the TS or Conversion line and also the MBB) A daily closing above 50'608 would keep alive my strategic technical target of 58'674 mentioned in my previous analysis published yesterday. 4 HOURS (H4) Recent and current price action is showing a sideways price action and a failure to hold above KS which may trigger on short term further downside towards the psychological support level of 50'000 which is also in this time frame the cluster support of MBB and Kijun-Sen or Base Line.$ Last but not least the 50'000, also roughly coincides with the ongoing support trend line in this H4 time frame. 1 HOUR (H1) Currently below KS, MBB and TS; H1 clouds support between 50'500-49'800 CONCLUSION : Recent and current price action is showing a corrective & consolidation in short term perspective ! As usual monitor closely short term intraday time frames to get early signal of a validation or invalidation of the implications above mentioned. Merry Christmas and all the best take care and have fun. Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Bürki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Ironman8848
1
BTCUSD-D1-EN ROUTE FOR 58'674 !Good morning,Christmas is coming and.. a warning buy signal has been given by a first daily closing above the Kijun-Sen. As mentioned previously, a view reassessment of my expected bearish scenario took place and now the way is open for further upside and my strategic target is @ 58'674. Indeed, the before yesterday's, shooting star has been neutralised by a BULLISH ENGULFING PATTERN (long white candle) whith its opening level at the cluster support of MBB and TS and its closing level above KS or base line which should be seen as a positive signal; today's closing above 50'608 would give an added value to this new expected scenario. DAILY (D1 ) If you go long now at current level (around 51'000) or on dips, I would suggest to apply a Risk Reward ratio of 3:1, meaning putting a stop loss @ 48'309 and act accordingly in following the trade price action with a trailing stop method in order to protect potential profit. Once again the Mid Bollinger Band did its job perfectly, in rejecting, this time, the yesterday's downside breakout attempt sucsessfully, also supported and helped by the 4 hours clouds support area which hold perfectly well too. :-) So, in short term, we may see some consolidation which should be seen as a buying opportunity, calling for the following targets : R1 : 52'294 (38.2% Fib ret) R2 : 55'483 (50% Fib ret) R3 : 58'674 (daily clouds resistance area & 61.8% Fib ret) RSI crossed over 50 and is @ 50.81 4 HOURS (H4) Looking at this 4 hours time frame and after the price action seen at the yesterday's end of afternoon (long white bullish candle, from 48'700 to 51'400) it is likely to see some consolidation in a new strategic bullish trend reversal. Therefore, long exposure should be rebuilt from current level and on dips towards, 50'725-49'400 protected by a stop loss previously mentioned. Looking briefly at the weekly picture, we can see a BULLISH ENGULFING PATTERN IN PROGRESS and a weekly closing above 50'100 would confirm this formation and would open the door for higher levels towards 53'275 (MBB) ahead of 55'483 (TS and also 50% Fib ret of the 69'000-41'967 downside move)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Ironman8848
6
BTCUSD-D1/H4- SHOOTING STAR ON D1 !DAILY (D1) The Mid Bollinger Band seems to work as a "magical line", isnt'it ? Indeed, the price action seen over the last two days is showing two successive breakout attempts of this important resistance level (MBB) ! In addition, yesterday's price action triggered a "SHOOTING STAR" which should be seen as new warning signal , calling for a new downside move; this pattern should, of course be confirmed by today's price action as a failure : 1) to recover and close above the MBB 2) to close above 49'000 (in order to neutralise the ongoing downside move) would confirm that the recent tactical corrective recovery is over. Below, watch carefully TS & Conversion line, currently @ 47'539; a failure to hold on a daily closing basis above it would also be an additional negative signal calling for a retest of the former "triple bottom" around 45'500. Daily RSI, below 50 @ 42.88 On the upside, as previously mentioned, watch first MBB (very good barometer indicator - Bullish above and Bearish below) ahead of the Kijun-Sen & Base line @ 50'608. Only a clear breakout of that level would force me to a view reassessment of my expected strategic bearish scenario. 4 HOURS (H4) Despite an intraday high reached @ 49'600, the BTCUSD lost momentum and a wonderful "DOJI" marked the top and triggered a trend reversal; on its way down, the Tenkan-Sen has already be broken and the Mid Bollinger Band and the H4 clouds support zone are under attack. Clouds support zone, also coincides with respectively the 50 % Fib ret (@ 47'586 - middle of the clouds & Kijun-Sen) and the 61.8% (@47'110 - clouds bottom). Finally, in this H4 time frame the BTCUSD reentered again in its former ongoing downtrend channel !!! On the upside watch the TS (@48'825) which is the first significant level to look at on this H4 time frame and a recovery on H4 closing basis above that level would temporary neutralise this new ongoing downtrend move in progress. CONCLUSION : Monitor also very closely the price action on shorter intraday time frames (H1 to M15) which will allow to detect early signal (s) which will validate or invalidate the implication of the expected D1 and H4 scenarios above mentioned. Have a nice trading day and all the best. Take care and if you like my analysis, please do not forget : 1) to like it 2) to follow me Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTCUSD-D1/W4-AT A TRICKY LEVEL !DAILY (D1) Yesterday'price action triggered a nice recovery following the upside breakout of the Tenkan-Sen, (currently @ 47'539) ans as result the BTCUSD close @ 48'929,roughly at the level of the Mid Bollinger Band, which as already mentioned several times in the past should not be underestimated and should also be seen as a good barometer indicator. Therefore, in order to confirm the yesterday's price action, the BTC, needs now to confirm by a clear follow through by keeping this ongoing upside move. Next resistance to watch at is the psychological resistance level of 50'000 ahead of the most important KEY PIVOT LEVEL @ 50'608 on this daily time frame. On the downside, the former KS @ 47'539 should now be seen as the first significant support level ! 4 HOURS (H4) The double & triple bottom area around 45'500 hold well and the former downtrend channel has also been broken, followed by a pullback towards the top downtrend line of this H4 channel; this downtrend line rejected the downside breakout attempt and therefore, I would suggest to look at vey carefully this former downtrend channel and mainly the top line of it as a good indicator for getting more clues about further the upcoming H4 trading period (s) As usual, watch also carefully, shorter time frames to get early signal (s) of validation or invalidation. Have a nice trading day and all the best. Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTCUSD -D1- DOUBLE BOTTOM IN PROGRESS !Good morning, today we are going to look at the daily and 4 hours time frame where something is cooking ! DAILY (D1) Price action seen over the last days is showing a potential double bottom in progress coupled with a bullish divergence ! The trigger level of this potential double bottom is @ 48'307 which if broken (on a daily basis) would open the door for a technical target of 51'136. The Tenkan-Sen also coincides with this trigger level and therefore an upside breakout of that level (again on a daily closing level) should not be underestimated. Nevertheless, do not forget either, the Mid Bollinger Band, currently @ 49'044, which should also be watched at very carefully as this indicator worked, as you can see on the daily chart perfectly well as a barometer indicator, from the breakout of the 63'135 level ! On the downside, the 45'500 area has already been tested three times and therefore should be seen as the first significant support zone to look at as a failure to hold above it would this time open the door for the former low of 42'000 reached on December 4th. 4 HOURS (H4) Still in its ongoing downtrend, below the clouds but above the cluster of MBB, TS and KS. Interesting to note that the top of the clouds in this H4 time frame is currently around 48'300 which also coincides with the trigger level of the potential double bottom, above mentioned. Indeed a breakout confirmation of the H4 time frame would also trigger a breakout of this ongoing downtrend channel and would open the door for higher levels. On the downside, the former 46'700-46'900 resistance area (cluster) should now be seen as the new support zone in this H4 time frame CONCLUSION : Watch also shorter intraday time frames which will help you : 1) to detect early signal (s) of a "bull trap" as we are still in a broad bear trend ! 2) intraday (very short term price action) will validate or invalidate the implications of each scenario above mentioned in H4 and D1 Have a nice day. Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD -W1/D1- ONGOING DOWNSIDE MOVE !Today, we are going to look at the weekly and daily time frames. WEEKLY (W1) : Last week price action triggered a long black (bearish) candle with its closing level @ 46'705, just above the bottom of the sideways trading range of 46'650-50'500 mentioned in my previous analysis. Moreover, the Lagging line is approaching the Kijun-Sen and a cross under this line (on a weekly closing basis, at the end of the ongoing week) would be an additional information, calling for lower levels ! RSI below 50 @ 45.73. Global picture is negative with focus now on weekly clouds support area which are between 45'200 and 37'000 On the upside, in this time weekly time frame, the 48'800 level should still be seen as the first significant resistance to break, which would ne utralise, for the time being, this ongoing downside risk. DAILY (D1) In an ongoing downtrend channel following the failure to clearly recover (on a daily basis) above TS, currently @ 48'140; as long as we stay (closing basis) below that level, the risk will remain to the downside, calling for lower levels towards the 42'000 area first; below the psychological 40'000 should then act as the next support level. On the upside, watch MBB (currently @ 49'500), which should be seen as an important key pivot level for further development (BULLISH ABOVE AND BEARISH BELOW !) Have a nice trading week and all the best. Take care Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
US 10 YEARS - W1 - DARK CLOUD COVER !We are going to look at the weekly and daily time frames. WEEKLY (W1) Last week price action triggered a "Dark Cloud Cover" pattern (bearish !) with its weekly closing level below the Tenkan-Sen and the cluster (Kijun-Sen & MBB) and also already within the weekly clouds support area. RSI below 50, @ 47'98 This Dark Cloud Cover pattern neutralized the previous white candle (harami), I mentioned as a first warning signal in my previous analysis (see related ideas below) and therefore the door is reopen to the downside towards former low of 1.34% first and then probably lower. DAILY (D1) Currently in an ongoing downtrend channel since the failure to upside breakout the clouds on a daily closing basis (Nov 29th). Below the clouds, the Kijun-Sen, the MBB and the Tenkan-Sen. RSI below 50 @ 42.44 The daily picture does not look very encouraging for the upcoming trading sessions and it is likely to see further downside towards 1.34% first and then towards the bottom line of the ongoing downtrend channel. 38.2% Fib ret @ 1.22%, 50% @ 1.05% and 61.8% @ 0.88% In order to neutralise this ongoing (yield) downside pressure the US 10 Years should recover at least above 1.50 % - 1.55 % Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
TVC:US10YShort
by Ironman8848
NQ1 100 MF - W1 - DARK CLOUD COVER !We are going to look at the weekly and daily time frames. WEEKLY (W1) : Last week price action, triggered a bearish dark cloud cover pattern which has neutralized the previous bullish engulfing pattern !!! The weekly closing level (@15'788), for the first time from a long time, has been below the Tenkan-Sen which should be seen as a warning confirmation signal of trend reversal; nevertheless, the NQ1 still above two important support levels which are firstly the Mid Bollinger Band (@ 15'567) and the Kijun-Sen (@ 15'363) and this upcoming closing level will be very important to watch. Indeed, a failure to hold and a clear breakout of 15'363 would be very negative for the future, opening the door for lower levels with focus on 14'374 (former low of October 4th and also 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the big rally starting in March 2020 @ 6'628.75 towards the ATH @ 16'767.50 reached last month. Below the next very important support area would be the weekly clouds support zone between 13'645 and 12'515; interesting to note that the 38.2% Fib ret is @ 12'894.50 On the upside and in order to neutralize the ongoing downside risk, the NQ1 should recover at least above 16'330 on a weekly closing price level as such kind of price action would trigger a bullish engulfing pattern, been seen as a first bullish signal calling for a retest of the ATH. DAILY (D1) Still under the influence of a Head and Shoulders formation in progress with its neckline, currently roughly at the same level of the daily bottom clouds support area ! Below both the Mid Bollinger Band & Kijun-Sen and the Tenkan-Sen; the last daily closing level (@ 15'788) triggered another black candle and it coincides roughly with the top of the daily clouds support area and also with the ongoing uptrend support line (in green) RSI below 50,@ 45.03 In that time frame, pressure remains to the downside and in order to neutralise this risk, the NQ1 should quickly recover above the cluster resistance area (16'150) and this on a daily closing basis; as long as it stays below it the selling pressure will remain, calling for lower level towards the bottom clouds support area, currently around 15'408, which is slightly above the H&S neckline !!! Last but not least, monitor closely intraday price action in watching at carefully price action on shorter time frames (H4 and H1) to get early signal (s) which will help you to validate or invalidate the implication of the scenarios above mentioned and therefore act accordingly. Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD - H1/H4 - AT A CRITICAL LEVEL !Good morning to all of you :-) Today we are going to look at two main intraday time frames which are Hourly (H1 ) and 4 hours (H4) Indeed, in my last and previous analysis, I highlighted a potential double bottom formation in progress on H1 with its trigger level @ 47'450 which has been filled and broken with an intraday high, so far @ 47'750. HOURLY (H1) The lack of follow through and both ongoing H1 downtrend line resistance and also the former support trend line, clearly stopped and rejected the ongoing upside move; the lagging line, also, failed to upside breakout the clouds and as a result, the BTCUSD is currently traded around this important 47'450-47'500 area which is also, by the way the top of the H1 clouds resistance area. The RSI upside move has also been broken by the failure to hold above its uptrend line support, still above 50 @ 56.37 Watch the former resistance cluster which becomes now the FIRST SUPPORT area to look at (@47'300 -47'000) A failure to hold above that area would put directly the focus to the H1 clouds bottom zone around 46'300 ahead of former lows "double bottom" @ 45'478 On the upside a breakout of both the ongoing downtrend line resistaance first ahead of a confirmation of an breakout of the former support trend line would neutralise the ongoing dowNside move in that hourly time frame. 4 HOURS (H4) Still under the clouds resistance area which once more, so far, did perfectly its job, in rejecting an new upside breakout attempts. In addition, the price action triggered by a long white candle has been quickly aborted by the next black candle in making a reversal pattern (which should be confirmed by the ongoing H4 candle on a closing basis in the next hours !) Moreover, the ongoing uptrend support line (in green), is currently on its way to be tested with, slighlty below an important former resistance level which became now a new support level @ 46'795 A failure to stay and hold above this point would put the focus on lower levels, above mentioned in H1 On the upside, watch the clouds ahead of the ongoing downtrend line resistance as only a clear recovery and breakout above those points would force to a view reassessment of my expected ongoing bearish scenario. Today's daily and weekly closing levels would give more clues for the upcoming week. Daily and weekly closing level above 48'800 would be the first warning signal of potential trend reversal !!! Have a nice Sunday. Ironman8848 6 Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
4
BTCUSD-H1- DOUBLE BOTTOM IN PROGRESS !As mentioned in my previous analysis, it is very important to look at carefully short term intraday time frames which can help you to detect early signal of short term trend reversal, providing countertrend short term TACTICAL trading opportunities. Looking at the hourly time frame (H1) a RSI bullish divergence, coupled with a double bottom formation has been detected a couple of hours ago, which triggered a short term recovery which on its way up, crossed over : 1) Tenkan-Sen @ 46'303 2) Mid Bollinger Band @ 46'589 then it attempted to upside breakout the Kijun-Sen (@46'728) with an intraday high on its last H1 period @ 46'879... but failed to stay and hold on a H1 basis closis above the KS @ 46'725 So what next ? Hourly (H1) The ongoing trading hour and especially its closing level will be very important to look at; indeed, a next H1 closing level above the Kijun-Sen will be the first warning signal of further rally towards the next resistance area which is @ 47'100 (47'020 being the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 49'515-45'478 downside move) ahead of 47'496 (50% Fib ret) - 47'450 being the double bottom trigger level !! A successful breakout of 47'450 on H1 closing basis would activate and validate the double bottom formation in opening the door for a technical target @ 49'422, which roughly the former double top congestion seen a couple days ago. On the downside, a failure to hold and stay above the new cluster support zone (46'728-46'303) on H1 closing basis, would reopen the door for lower levels towards former lows around 45'500 and probably lower towards the former 42'000 support area. 4 HOURS (H4) Currently below the clouds, the Tenkan-Sen, the Kijun-Sen and the Mid Bollinger Band First significant resistance level on this H4 time frame is @ 46'950 An upside breakout of this level on H4 closing basis would be the first confirmation of a continuation of this recovery, calling for 47'500 ahead of 47'750 and last but not least the H4 clouds resistance area, currently between 48'275 and 48'870. Watch also the ongoing H4 downtrend resistance line and which should also be seen as a good barometer on that time frame. On the downside, same than for H1 DAILY (D1) No change in my BEARISH STRATEGIC VIEW ! Still in its downtrend channel; yesterday's price action triggered a daily closing level @ 46'210, for the first time below the ongoing sideways trading range (46'650-50'650) ! Currently trying to recover "timidly"... In order to neutralise the ongoing downside risk is that daily time frame, the BTCUSD should at least recover and hold sustainably (on a closing basis) above 48'140 ! A failure to do it should be seen as a confirmation of the ongoing downside move, calling for lower levels towards 45'500 first and ahead 42'000 later. WEEKLY (W1) Currently below the former uptrend support line (currently @ 52'750, which is also the Mid Bollinger Band level !) and below the Kijun-Sen (@ 48'800 too); ongoing weekly closing will be very important to look at as a failure to close above 48'800 would be an additional bearish signal in this time frame, calling for lower levels towards the weekly clouds support area between 45'000 and 37'000, with an intermediate minor support level around 42'000 (former low ) Globally under the influence of a MAJOR DOUBLE TOP FORMATION IN PROGRESS AND A HUDGE RSI BEARISH DIVERGENCE !!! MONTHLY (M1) Very long term picture is showing the following information : Fibonacci retracements (3'850 - 69'000 rally !) : 38.2 % @ 44'112 (already filled) 50.0 % @ 36'425 (also Kijun-Sen) 61.8% @ 28'737 (roughly former lows & double bottom !) Interesting to note that the monthly Mid Bollinger Band is currently @ 33'975 HUDGE RSI BEARISH DIVERGENCE ON A MONTHLY BASIS TOO !!! CONCLUSION : In reading my multi time frames analysis, I hope, I have been able to help you to better understand "Ironman8848" technical analysis methodology which is showing you the corroboration of all time frames analysis, starting from intraday time frames to get early signals towards longer time frames to get confirmation of the trend. Have a great weekend and if you like my technical analysis methodology, please : 1) like it 2) add me on your following list 3) watch my website www.ironman8848.com Many thanks in advance All the best and take care. Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
9
DXY - D1 - DOUBLE TOP IN PROGRESS !The Dollar Index (DXY) is showing a potential double top formation in progress on a daily chart. DAILY (D1) Ongoing downside price action, after having, yesterday, broken both the Tenkan-Sen and the Mid Bollinger Band, this morning the DXY is attempting to also breakout the Kijun-Sen which should be seen as the last important support level in that time frame. A failure to hold above it (95.96) would directly put the focus on lower levels, towards 95.51 which is the trigger level of the double top formation in progress and if broken would activate this reversal formation calling for a technical target @ 94.09 which is, currently, also the clouds bottom support area on this daily time frame. WEEKLY (W1) Still in an ongoing uptrend but lack of follow through, confirmed by several "dojis" in a row is likely to trigger a trend reversal! In addition, the 50 % Fibonacci retracement @ 96.10 has been filled but, so far, each upside continuation attempt has been rejected. In that weekly time frame, the next significant support is @ 95.11 and a failure to stay above it would be an additional warning signal, calling for further downside towards the double top technical target @ 94'09 above mentioned, which also coincides with the weekly cluster support level of MBB and KS. MONTHLY (M1) The DXY failed on the last monthly closing basis (in November) to upside breakout the clouds resistance area ! Therefore, December monthly closing should be watch at very carefully and that will give more clues for the upcoming months on a long term view. Finally, watch carefully price action on shorter intraday time frames which will help you to validate or invalidate my technical view. CONCLUSION : Only a sustainable recovery, on a daily basis closing observation, above the 97.00 area would force to a reassessment of my expected bearish scenario.
TVC:DXYShort
by Ironman8848
GOLD FUT - D1 - DOUBLE BOTTOM !DAILY (D1) A RSI bullish divergence detected 2 days ago, triggered a trend reversal in making a double bottom formation which has been activated yesterday with the breakout of the trigger level @ 1794. Technical target of this double bottom formation is @ $ 1835.00 A breakout of the ongoing downtrend line resistance (in red? and also the upside breakout of the clouds would add further support to this bullish scenario. KS is @ $ 1816. WEEKLY (W1) Currently in a broad double bottom formation in progress and still below the weekly clouds but already above both Kijun-Sen and Mid Bollinger Band . Watch the clouds (1'828-1'884) as the weekly resistance area and ongoing weekly uptrend line (1785) as support zone , on a weekly closing basis. Double bottom trigger level on this weekly time frame is @ $ 1'919.-- and target would be $ 2'165... 4 HOURS (H4) Intraday picture is showing the Gold above the clouds, the MBB , the KS and the TS . Last but not least the Lagging line is above the clouds. Have a nice trading day and all the best and if you like my analysis, do not forget : 1) to like it 2) to add me on your following list if it is done yet :-) Many thanks in advance. Take care. Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD - D1- ONGOING DOWNTREND CHANNELDAILY (D1) Ongoing downtrend stil in place caught in a 46'650-50'650 trading range. Below Tenkan-Sen, Kijun-Sen and Mid Bollinger Band. RSI below 50, @ 38.31 All ingredients are in for further downside in a STRATEGIC perspective, of course. Countertrend trading opportunities (long exposure) should, and I insist be very carefully monitored in applying a strict Risk Management approach which will depend on your investment time horizon. Risk Reward ratio should also be managed accordingly ! Do not forget, we are, STRATEGICALLY, in a SELL ON RALLY MODE and not on a BUY on dips yet. In order to neutralise the ongoing downside risk, the BTCUSD should recover and hold sustainably, on a daily closing basis, above 50'750 firstly which should be confirmed by an upside breakout of the Mid Bollinger Band @ 51'200 and only such kind of price action would force me to view reassessment of my expected bearish scenario calling for lower levels in case of a breakout of the bottom of the trading range above mentioned. 4 HOURS (H4) Currently below the clouds, MBB, KS and TS. Lagging line below the clouds too. Watch the clouds on the upside as resistance area and the former lows around 46'650 as a support zone in that time frame. Have a nice trading day. Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
NQ1 100 MF - AT A TRICKY LEVEL !DAILY (D1) As expected and mentioned yesterday, the failure to upside breakout the 16'450 area triggered a new wave of selling pressure, which as a result pushed down the NQ1 towards a low so far of 15'765, testing on its way the top of the daily clouds support zone. The NQ 1 is currently at a tricky level !!! Indeed, the 15'800 area is also the former minor uptrend support line and a failure to hold above it would put the focus to lower levels having in mind the lower band of the daily clouds support @ 15'400 ahead of the Head and Shoulders trigger level, currently @ 15'280. RSI is below 50, @ 45.20 and the Lagging line has already cross under the Tenkan-Sen and is also very close to the Mid Bollinger Band. 4 HOURS (H4) Looking at the H4, we can see the opposite move seen before yesterday when the price action triggered a cluster breakout to the upside; indeed, yesterday's afternoon, this time the cluster breakout took place to the downside in its way, also breaking the H4 clouds support area, testing currently the ongoing uptrend support line (in green) RSI below 50, @ 38.80 and the Lagging line has already crossed under all the support lines and is also below the clouds. 1 HOUR (H1) Small RSI bullish divergence which triggered a corrective small recovery so far; currently below TS, the clouds, MBB and KS. Once again in order to neutralise the ongoing downside risk, the NQ1 should recover and hold above the 16'200-16'250 area ! . A failure to do it, would add further selling pressure, calling for lower levels WEEKLY (W1) Looking on the weekly time frame, the med/long term trend is still OK but a weekly closing below 15'900 should be seen as the first warning signal of a trend reversal in that time frame which would be confirmed by the breakout of the Mid Bollinger Band, currently @ 15'569 ahead of the ultime support level @ 15'363. A breakout confirmed of 15'363, on a weekly basis would be very negative and would put the focus to the 14'400 area (23.6% Fib ret of the big 6'628-16'767 rally) and also the weekly top of the clouds support area. Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Ironman8848
3