Ironore
Flag Pennant Breakout Giving $0.85c TargetHazer Group today broke out on light volume. The previous move (spurred by material news in regards to their graphite and hydrogen technology) of ~65% from $0.41 to $0.68 represents a move of $0.27 which gives this latest movement a target of $0.85. This also correlates with the historical all-time high.
Since the initial move the on 3/10/17 the previous price action has consolidated on declining volume indicating that sellers are done, the move to the upside confirms this.
With a HOA recently announced with ASX:MIN for the development of a battery grade graphite plant and a further MOU signed with Primetals for investigation of hydrogen refinement of iron ore there are several progressions possible which may act as catalysts in the near term.
“Hazer’s mission is to play a significant role across three multi-billion dollar global markets. Hazer’s technology can potentially provide an innovative solution for the global industrial hydrogen market, by producing hydrogen at lower cost than alternative options, while also reducing users’ CO2 footprint. The low-emissions associated with the Hazer Process also potentially provides a gateway for hydrogen to more effectively penetrate the sustainable energy market for both vehicle fuel and stationary power applications. Hazer is also looking to provide high quality synthetic graphite for energy storage and other large global graphite applications.”
www.hazergroup.com.au
AUDUSD: Resuming the monthly rally next$AUDUSD appears to have comp0leted a correction and is ready to resume the monthly uptrend. We're long and added here at 0.7850 for the last time, after buying at 0.7835 initially.
The trend in EV adoption is driving flows here I suspect, with an increase in the price of copper, iron ore, cobalt, nickel, and other materials required for different battery types. Australia benefits directly from this, as an exporter of these, iron ore and copper in particular. This could drive the long term rally we observe to be active in monthly charts.
See related ideas for more information.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Rio Tinto - Up or Down ?Rio has successfully completed a rising wedge pattern - broke down the support line and now it's slowly going to test it. It seems like very likely the support becomes a new resistance and stock is going to go down.
However, it has also stopped at the 50MA with slightly increased volume, which may signal also a support. Now, it is crucial to watch the lower trend line of the wedge, whether it breaks it back or not and based on that Rio will choose its next journey.
Huge move coming for the AUDVery good risk to reward trade, very manageable with a tight stop below the swing low. A clean break above 78 would signal a trend change in AUD, go long on pullbacks after breakout beyond 78.
AUDUSD: Potentially breaking above the monthly resistance soon$AUDUSD appears to be about to rally for the intermediate to long term, judging by how the pair has been acting lately, as well as how fundamentals are setting up. With oil in a strong advance, commodities are potentially rallying higher, which would boost currencies like the Aussie dollar.
The technical chart here shows the pair is coming up after being heavily oversold and very washed out, with shorts covering, helping bulls lift off. Weekly and monthly charts show good potential, with a monthly uptrend signal pending confirmation as a potential development, as well as a weekly buy signal from Tim West's proprietary indicators.
Best of luck if trading it, and ideally, trade the long side with me.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Disclaimer: I am long $AUDUSD.
$ITI Elliot WaveAs $ITI has not exhibited an upward EW pattern before, all we have to go off for a fractal match is to overlay the first and second waves. This gives us a pullback from the current position back the to 61.8% fib (around USD64) and then a further run up to a high of USD96 before falling back again.
Of course, as always this depends on the Chinese economy, and now the new factor of potential Trump and Brexit tariffs.
AUD/USD M/T shortHi guys,
In effect, this is an extension of my aussie trade posted pre-Trump (26th October 2016) in which we bagged 500 pips.
AUDUSD has seen rapid recovery off the back of both dollar weakness (mainly due to lack of details of the US administration's economic plans) and rapidly rising commodity prices, in particular iron ore (/it has rallied 10% recently, mainly based on speculation).
At present, the commodity currencies are more overvalued than any of their G10 counterparts at 15% in TWI terms, almost as much as they were a couple of years ago before they corrected substantially lower due to weaker commodity prices and rate cuts from the central banks (RBA in this case). Long term FX valuations point to AUD/USD fair value at 0.70.
RBA have sounded more optimistic on growth recently but $MS and others expect a slowdown in the housing sector, which could trigger an RBA cut. It is likely that the RBA wants to limit AUD upside in the n/t and is ready to soft its tone in case the FX rate appreciates excessively. Moreover, as the market could well price in more aggressive action by the Fed, relative mon pols support USD against AUD in coming months.
Iron ore futures need a reality check, which is my main reason for taking this trade (as well as favourable price action, esp on the weekly charts). RBA expects additional iron ore output from Brazil, as well as potential return of some output in China, to weigh on iron ore prices in the near term and doesn't see iron ore sticking around $90/metric ton. One could argue for days about whether iron ore prices should have rallied etc but one thing is for sure (as sure as you can be in this game!): iron ore prices need a correction. I see propensity for a correction down to as low as $80.
Looking at price action, upward momentum seems to be waning (bearish RSI div + 2 weekly dojis). A correction towards the 50% retracement of the Nov-Dec 2016 move seems likely, in my view.
GL all!
AUDUSD: Update - Consolidating here will give us continuationIf AUDUSD is to hold here, and eventually break out, and cross the overhead resistance, we can see a massive rally take off, which you definitely don't want to miss. If you missed my previous entries, you may go long here, risking a drop under 0.7811. Keep risk to 0.5-1%. This is a swing trade setup.
If you want, additionally, or perhaps if more conservative, you may use our monthly setup stop loss: 0.75248. Upside is significant, so don't miss this opportunity!
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
$ITI ($TIOc1) leading $AUDUSDPeople focus on $XCUUSD as being a proxy for $AUDUSD, but iron ore is equally important. Note how $ITI is leading the Aussie here, so go long $AUDUSD
AUDUSD: Monthly range expansions show sellers get trapped higherLooking at monthly ranges, we see that months with sharp selloffs, that surpass the previous true range, as measured from the open to the low, have been causing sellers to get trapped at increasingly higher prices. This is bullish and shows accumulation, and shakeouts taking place. The monthly chart shows a mode near the highs, and now we're testing support at the bottom of the monthly range, so we have a great opportunity on the long side, after the market got extremely one sided.
Sellers might get trapped here again, this time higher than the previous range expansion months, which is bullish overall. Daily and weekly RgMov readings are bullish, and we have massive lag relative to copper and iron ore, which eventually will play out, so I remain bullish.
The entry to add to longs is described in my 4h chart, see related ideas for more information.
Keep these levels in mind, once above, they act as support on a retest.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Iron ore bulls, don’t jump the gunWe do see a strong inverse head and shoulder breakout on the weekly chart, however, still it is premature to say that a major trend reversal has happened.
This is because the descending trend line drawn from the Feb 2013 and Dec 2013 high is yet to be breached. Once breached on the weekly chart, the bulls could call a long-term trend reversal.
Note – Failure to take out the trend line followed by a dip below neckline support would be bad news for Iron ore and the Aussie dollar.
Iron Ore bullish break a good omen for AussieThe weekly chart of the Nymex Iron Ore futures shows a bullish inverse head and shoulder breakout. This is a clear reversal pattern…especially since the inverse head and shoulder has appeared at the bottom of the 5-year long downtrend.
The bullish break is good news for the Australian dollar (AUD) given the close correlation between the two.
Increased odds of Fed rate hike could keep the AUD/USD under pressure, nevertheless the Aussie could do better against other majors.
EWA: Australia is a longThe trend is now up, and we have a weekly 'Time at mode' signal pointing to 22.59 as the target.
Risk is a drop under 19.37. You can buy dips, or speculate on copper, or on FXA or AUDUSD as well.
Steel/Iron ore is also looking great, which makes this a sure buy.
Shares of X or STLD would be a nice buy as well.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
AUDCAD: Uptrend continuation tradeWe have a nice potential trade setting up in AUDCAD. The uptrend has been quite strong, and retesting this key level gives us good reason to reenter longs.
This week I'll post some of the trades I send to my signals clients, stay tuned for more.
Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com
If interested in my real time whatsapp alerts and swing trading newsletter, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers!
Ivan Labrie
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance0.25% on such information.
X: Time to reshort has comeWe have a pretty clear shorting opportunity in X. I had succesfully shorted it before, you can see my previous post in related ideas.
Fundamentals weigh heavily in steel right now, and the technicals in this chart are compelling, so I reccomend entering shorts under 16.33, with stops above 17.10, and target at least a retest of the recent lows, but we could break under this zone as well.
Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com
If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers!
Ivan Labrie
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance0.57% on such information.
AUDUSD: Potential uptrend continuationI went long recently, 2 days ago, but closed earlier today.
I'm reentering longs here, you can either use a stop at the suggested price on chart, or under the recent swing low, or based on ATR. I leave it up to you.
There's a chance for price to resume the uptrend, so I'd let the trade breathe until we can confirm that is what's going on.
Entering at market is ok, risk half and add more if we get a dip tomorrow..
If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers,
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
EURAUD: Ideal opportunity for a pair tradeAfter seeing The Working Trader's idea I figured I could attemp a pair trade in this pair, to take advantage of the interest rate differential in both EURUSD short and AUDUSD long.
The entry will be a market order, but I'd have to see how the markets open tomorrow, I will update the chart by then.
For now, keep in mind that for pair trades, I aim to open a big position on each side, which thanks to the pair trade's more 'market neutral' stance, lets me use no stop loss and be somewhat safe, at least, as long as the ratio chart's setup is valid (in this case EURAUD).
The advantages are multiple, check out The Working Trader's post in 'related ideas' for more information, I detailed it there.
For now, if you want to enter this trade, find out the ADR value (atr of 1,5,10 and 20 bars added together and divided by 4). Once you know this you can calculate position size in base on your desired risk, per day.
You will have to watch the trade, unless you're deep in profit, it won't be a set and forget deal.
Good luck, and wait for the update regarding entry tomorrow.
Target is initially the time at mode one, but it can retrace the whole terminal wedge (it should for it to be valid, and it has to occur in 1/3-1/4 the time it took to be formed).
Cheers,
Ivan.
AUDUSD: UpdateWatching for potential move resumption of the bearish trend.
If the target above isn't reached in time, or is reached ahead of time, we can consider taking a short entry under the highest low.
Will update with an entry.
AUDUSD: Quarterly and yearly signals and trading mapThe levels on chart are very significant, as evidenced by the price action around them, and how the trend signals targets and timing of said trends respects time at mode guidelines.
I identified the end of a quarterly downtrend, in time, byJune 30th, which isn't far ahead, and a new quarterly downtrend signal that points to further declines in the long term, with completion dates by March 31st, 2016.
I think this publication will aid in identifying the potential of lower timeframe signals, when contrasting it with the levels on chart, to gauge how far, and how fast price can move in the future.
In the short term, I anticipate a surge in gold, and in the AUD and NZD pairs, while the crude oil correlated currencies cool down after strong uptrends, and also, while the dollar remains weak (which might extend for months if we continue at this rate).
As for the yearly chart, there's a possibility that we confirm a yearly downtrend signal in the future, depending on how far the AUDUSD rallies and where does the yearly bar close.
Cheers,
Ivan.
AUDNZD: Bargain hunting in an uptrendAnalysis on chart + neowave wave chart (weekly plot) + a new indicator I coded.
See related ideas for the code.
Good luck!
Ivan.
