IRX
MACRO VIEW: IRX HINTS NO SEPTEMBER RATE HIKE BY FEDIRX (13-week treasury bill index) failed to hold above relevant highs of 0.07% and reverted back to hear-zero levels.
Due to its correlation to Effective Fed Funds rate, IRX will serve as an expectations indicator of upcoming federal reserve rate hike
Most likely reason of the lack of expectations regarding the rate hike in September is another leg of downtrend in oil happening currently, which will again drive US inflation towards zero and away from the FED's 2% targat (one of 2 key conditions of the perspective rate hike)
MACRO VIEW: 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD ON THE MOVE UPSince mid-July the 3-Month T-bill yield has been trending upwards on quarterly basis (broke out from the 1st standard deviation from 66-day mean amid expanding volatility)
The yield is a choppy instrument, however current uptrend (if it holds) may actually signal Federal Reserve rate hike expectations by institutional market participants.
3-Month T-bill is closely correlated to the Effective Fed Funds Rate - and thus will move upwards significantly if there is truly a move in the Fed's key target rate.
