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Ismmanufacturingindex

ISM Manufacturing & ISM Services PMI Combined show trigger levelISM Manufacturing and ISM Services PMI Combined 🪢 This week the ISM PMI's were released as follows: 🚨ISM Manufacturing PMI = 47.2 (contractionary) ✅ISM Services PMI = 51.5 (expansionary) With both metrics offering mixed signals, I decided to make a chart that combines the ISM Manufacturing and ISM Services PMI into one dataset on the chart. Interestingly it provided a clean chart with many patterns to observe, and useful forward looking trigger levels to keep an eye on. Don't forget you can update on this chart data anytime on my TradingView page with one click. At present you can see that the data is compressed into a something resembling a "Darvas Box". I understand this not price but data, however this economic data is clearly in a compressed channel and appears uncertain in terms of a definitive direction. It has also never been in a pattern like this for this long in the past, which could mean a break out up or down is closer than it is further away. Prior patterns have demonstrated that break throughs of both diagonal and horizontal support lines has resulted in significant downward movements. This is evident on the chart and this is something we can watch out for should we break below the box. Consistent with past recession's the Combined PMI dropped below the 50 level (🔴red circles) way back in Dec 2022. Since then we have oscillated around the 50 level in the compressed box in indecisive fashion. Never has the data behaved specifically this way in the past, specifically for this long. There are no other compressed boxes of data lasting this long. At some stage the ISM Data will push the its way out of this box I have drawn and it could be a good indicator to observe for early signals of the direction of the economy in the U.S. as a whole (both services and manufacturing combined) As always, this chart in on my TradingView page, and you can click on it at any stage to get an updated reading on the chart so you can quickly get a visual update on the direction of the U.S. Economy via combined ISM PMI's. Enjoy PUKA
ECONOMICS:USBCOI
by PukaCharts
1
Macro Monday 34 ~ S&P PMI Composite FlashMacro Monday 34 S&P PMI Composite Flash This S&P PMI “Flash” Composite is a very useful and relatively new data set made available since Nov 2013 that is particularly useful at providing an advance indication of the ISM Purchasing Managers Index (ISM PMI Index) which is released a week later. We are aware from prior Macro Mondays that the ISM PMI index is based on data collected through surveys of over 800 companies in the U.S. and covers variables such as sales, new orders, employment, inventories and prices, all of which give us an indication of trends in the economy. S&P Flash Composite Main Benefits 1. The term "Flash" in the name refers to the fact that it is a preliminary or early quick estimate of the ISM Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) which is released later in the month. For example this month the S&P Flash Composite is released this week on Thursday 22nd Feb whilst the final ISM PMI reading is released Friday 1st March (both readings are for the month of Feb). 2. The S&P PMI Composite Flash is a “composite” insofar as it combines both the manufacturing and services sectors PMI’s into a single index. This provides a more comprehensive overview of economic activity compared to looking at either sector in isolation (however you can also view the flash PMI for Services and Manufacturing separately, these are released on the same day). So the S&P PMI Composite Flash consists of two main components: 1. Manufacturing PMI: Measures economic activity in manufacturing. 2. Services PMI: Measures economic activity in the services sector. Both components are based on surveys of purchasing managers and provide insights into factors like new orders, production, and employment. The Composite PMI combines these components to offer an overall picture of economic health, with readings above 50 indicating expansion and below 50 indicating contraction. How do we get an advance “FLASH” PMI reading and how reliable is it? The main difference between the data used in the S&P PMI Composite Flash and the final PMI figures lies in the sample size(smaller) and timing (earlier release with most recent data exclusion). According to Investopedia and a report from S&P Global Flash (Jan 2023), the Flash Composite PMI release is based on about 85% of total PMI survey responses each month. Clearly, a significant portion of survey responses are included in the Flash PMI which would lead you to believe that its reliable early indicator but how reliable has it been historically? In the aforementioned S&P Global Report it also provided the historical average difference between the flash and final PMI index values (final minus flash) since comparisons were first available, which are; Composite Difference = 0.1 Manufacturing Difference = 0.0 Services Difference = 0.2 We can see that the Manufacturing Flash PMI release readings are the most reliable and that the Services Flash PMI is less reliable. Whilst both are not far off the mark, it’s a notable difference for services considering that services represents over 80% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), thus small differences in services hold more weight. Regardless, we can be relatively satisfied that the S&P PMI Composite Flash Index is a very good and reliable early indicator of the Final ISM PMI. I will certainly be looking at this metric going forward so that I can have a great early indication of the ISM PMI. When you review the chart of the Flash PMI with the Final PMI, you'll see that the difference appears greater than the marginal difference discussed above. This highlights, how on a chart, the difference a week or a weeks worth of data can make to how a chart appears (with the absent or included 15% of data). You will also notice that the Flash PMI is more volatile with higher and lower swings. It reminds me a little of the CPI headline vs CPI core chart in this respect, as both ultimately move in the same direction but one oscillates less than the other. I hope the next Flash PMI released this Thursday 22nd Feb will help arm you with what is very reliable early indication of the ISM PMI (released a week later on the 1st March). Thanks for coming along PUKA
ECONOMICS:USCOMPPMI
by PukaCharts
Macro Monday 13~Purchase Managers IndexMacro Monday 13 ISM Purchasing Managers Index The ISM Purchasers Managers Index (PMI) measures month over month change in economic activity within the manufacturing sector. The PMI is a survey-based indicator that is compiled and released each month by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The survey is sent to senior executives at more than 400 companies in 19 primary industries, which are weighted by their contribution to U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP). A PMI above 50 represents an expansion in manufacturing when compared with the previous month. A PMI reading under 50 represents a contraction while a reading at 50 indicates no change. The further away from 50, the greater the level of change. According to Investopedia "ISM data is considered to be a leading indicator of economic trends. Not only does the ISM Manufacturing Index report information on the prior two months, it outlines long-term trends that have been building over time based on prevailing economic conditions". The ISM reports are released on the first business day of each month for the month that has previously closed. Thus, they are some of the earliest indicators of current economic activity that investors and business leaders get regularly. Something to look out for next Monday 2nd October 2023. The PMI focuses mainly on the five major survey areas; 1. Employment (20%) 2. New orders (30%) Covered in Macro Monday 6 3. Production/Output (25%) 4. Inventory levels (10%) 5. Supplier deliveries (15%) We covered the ISM New Orders Index in Macro Monday 6 as it is the largest component of the Purchaser Managers Index making up 30% of the overall index. I will leave a link to the chart. The Chart The chart outlines the last 12 recessions (shaded red zones) with the PMI readings over the same period. As we are already aware above 50 on the PMI reading is expansionary and below 50 is contractionary (red thick line). Three Main Findings 1. In 11 out of 12 recessions a PMI reading at or below 42 was established. This means if the PMI falls to 42 there is a 92% probability of a recession. At present we have not reached that level, we are currently at 47.6. 2. The PMI has bottomed 10 out of 12 times in Quarter 1 (between Jan – March) with the remaining two bottoms happening in Quarter 2 (both in May). This means that 83% of the time the PMI cycle appears to bottom in Quarter 1 with the most bottoms in January (6) with Feb(2) and May(2) in close second place. - It’s worth noting that the bottom of the PMI cycle may not be the bottom of a stock market cycle. If we are forward looking then a rising PMI is positive for the economy and markets but ideally a move above 50 is the true signal of economic expansion from a manufacturing standpoint. 3. The average PMI bottom to bottom cycle timeframe over the past 6 cycles is 58 months with the shortest being 37 months and the longest being 86 months. We are currently at month 38 and the average month of 58 is Jan 2025 with the max of 86 months being May 2027. - How interesting is it that both these potential PMI bottom dates line up with our two most frequent PMI bottom months indicated in point 2 (January and May). - Interestingly according to U.S. government research, since WWII the business cycle in America takes, on average, around 5.5 years which closely aligns with our 58 month (or roughly 5 year) indication for the PMI chart. The business cycle incorporates an aggregate of economic data such as the ISM data, GDP and income/employment metrics. We might cover the business cycle in more detail on a future Macro Monday. The ISM New Orders Index (30% of the PMI) Similar to the ISM New Orders Index Chart (covered in Macro Monday 6) which makes up 30% of the PMI, we have not reached below the 42 level on this chart either which has provided a 100% confirmation of recession when we have had a definitive move below the 42 level historically. For ISM New Orders if we stay below a sub 50 level on the ISM New Orders Chart for greater than 7 months it has resulted in a recession every time except for 1966 and 1995 (8 out of 10 times). We are currently 14 months below the 50 level which is unprecedented, with the new orders index nudging a little lower on the August reading from 47.3 down to 46.8. ISM Data Release 2nd October 2023 When we receive our next ISM Data release next Monday 2nd October 2023 we can refer back to the PMI chart and the New Orders Index Chart and see how things have progressed and if we have reached and critical levels. These charts and the others I have completed on Macro Mondays are all designed so that you can revisit them at any point and press play on TradingView and see if we are breaking new into higher or lower risk territory. I hope they all help towards your investing and trading decisions. Have a great Monday guys, Lets get after it! PUKA
ECONOMICS:USBCOI
by PukaCharts
4
ISM Manufacturing New Order IndexMacro Monday (6) United States ISM Manufacturing New Order Index - ECONOMICS:USMNO This week I have honed in on the Institute of Supply Management Manufacturing New Orders Index (ISM New Orders Index) as it is the largest component of the headline Purchaser Managers Index(PMI) making up 30% of that index. I also make the case below for how it can act as leading indicator of demand by way of trend projection. The ISM New Orders Index is an indicator of U.S. economic activity based on a survey of more than 300 purchasing managers at manufacturing firms advising if orders have increased, decreased or stayed the same. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates the expansion in the manufacturing sector which is interpreted as a positive indicator of economic growth. A reading below 50 indicates a contraction in the manufacturing sector which suggests a slowing economy. According to Investopedia "ISM data is considered to be a leading indicator of economic trends. Not only does the ISM Manufacturing Index report information on the prior two months, it outlines long-term trends that have been building over time based on prevailing economic conditions". The ISM reports are released on the first business day of each month for the month that has previously closed. Thus, they are some of the earliest indicators of current economic activity that investors and business people get regularly. ISM New orders provide an indication of current consumer demand. Utilizing a chart of New Orders readings we can attempt to understand the trend of consumer demand forward. ISM New Orders could be considered an additional gauge of consumer sentiment because if businesses are reporting increases in orders month over month, this demonstrates consumers have the consistently had the resources and the desire to spend. If this continues over months a trend can form and we can capture this direction on a chart. To support the ISM predictive argument I include a chart that illustrates a correlation between the ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, the latter of which is considered one of thee leading indicators for predicting future consumer spending/demand. This will be posted in the comments. According to the University of Michigan, the Consumer Sentiment Surveys "have proven to be an accurate indicator of the future course of the national economy." Based on the above correlation I postulate that we can use the ISM New Orders Index as an additional leading/predictive indicator to establish what direction consumer demand is trending. The ISM New Orders Chart Focusing on the ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index Chart you can see that a breach below the sub 50 level can act as a leading or affirming indicator of a slowing economy, lowering consumer demand/sentiment and ultimately recession. Orange Zone Historically If we enter into the orange area and stay there for greater than 7 months it has resulted in a recession every time except for 1966 and 1995 (8 out of 10 times). Some analysts have recognised and compared the similarities of the current period to the 1995/96 period. The similarities are evident on this chart with two touches or bounces from the red zone which appears to be happening at present. The August and September ISM New Orders reading will ultimately tell us if this will play out similar to 1995/96 or not. We know what to expect if it doesn’t. Red Zone Anytime we have entered into the red zone we have confirmed a recession. Its key to realise that recessions are typically assigned 8 months after they have started and this could mean we are already in one... Interestingly we have toe dipped into the red zone twice, in Feb and May 2023 however I do not see this as a definitive move into the red zone, I see these as bounces from this level as noted above. Moment of Truth for ISM New Orders What is clear from looking at the chart is that we are at a critical juncture as we have been 13 months in the orange zone which is a historic first. The coming months readings for August (released Sept) and September (released Oct) will be vitally important for providing an indication of the direction of the economy. A drop down into the red zone and you know what to expect. A rise out of the orange area and above the 50 level would be positive however we have been rejected from areas above 50 in the past (see red lines on chart). I have included some rough fractals from periods in the past (arrows in grey) where we were previously rejected from the 52 and 54 level only to be dumped back into the red and into recession. It’s great that we are aware of these potential false flags so that we don’t get ahead of ourselves. It’s important to note that these fractal examples from 1980, 1990 & 1967 are not projections, just observations from past readings on what may be possible. It only highlights that we need to be cautious, even if we rise above the 50 level, we can be rejected into recession from the 52 and the 54 level. This is why we need help from other charts and indicators to help gauge the likelihood of a continuation higher or rejection lower. Here on Macro Mondays we have been and will continue to build a portfolio of leading market charts/indicators that you can check for free on my Trading View and see how they are all progressing. These charts will include trigger events and will be updated as matters progress. The charts can help inform you of the direction of the economy, the market and help you anticipate or time any potential looming recession. Some prior charts and their indications to date (all linked under this article); Concerning Charts: o Macro Monday 2 – The 2/10 year Treasury Spread FRED:T10Y2Y : The current yield curve inversion on the 2/10 year Treasury Spread historically provided an advance warning of recession/capitulation in 2000, 2007 & 2020 however it provided us a wide 6 - 22 month window of time from the time the yield curve made its first definitive turn back up to the 0% level. September will be month 6 of that 6 – 22 month window and thus we are clearly entering dangerous territory. o Macro Monday 6 – ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index ECONOMICS:USMNO : Its clear from our chart shared today that the ISM New Orders Index is also entering into dangerous territory having been below the sub 50 level and in the orange zone for 13 months. This has never happened before without a recession, bar a lessor 12 month timeframe in the orange zone in 1995/96. The ISM Manufacturing New Orders readings for August and September will be vital indicators for the direction of the economy. o Macro Monday 4 – Global Net Liquidity Vs S&P 500 NYSE:GNL : We shared this chart on the 3rd July as an advance warning of an imminent and expected pull back in the $SPX500. A negative divergence was evident on the chart as Global Net liquidity was decreasing for 6 months from Jan – July 2023 and the S&P 500 increased over the same period. Please review the chart press play and see how accurate this call has been. GNL is currently signalling at minimum a continued correction over the months of Aug and Sept. Side Note: I am very aware of the Halloween effect in which markets rally into the months of October – December thus a pull back in Aug/Sept could end up being short term with a surge in the markets in October. The ISM reading for August (released in Sept) and September (released October) should help us gauge what outcome is more likely. Any increase/decrease in GNL will also offer insight over those months. Aside from this we should be aware of any Fiscal Stimulus that is announced as this would likely have a significant impact. I hope to cover Fiscal Stimulus in coming Macro Mondays, it’s a work in progress. Charts Demonstrating Strength: o Macro Monday 1 - Dow Jones Transportation Index ( DJ:DJT ): The transportation sector acts as a leading indicator as it is further up the value chain ahead of the final products being sold by companies in Dow Jones Industrial Average $DJI. It is similar to ISM Manufacturing New orders in this regard, ahead of or at point of sale execution. When the Dow Jones Industrial Average TVC:DJI is climbing higher while the DJT is falling (Negative Divergence), it can be a signal of economic weakness ahead, this occurred prior to March 2020 capitulation, making this a very valuable tool to have in our arsenal. - In our chart recently shared a positive weekly MACD cross gave us a heads up that price might break through strong resistance levels, which it in fact did. If we can make the prior resistance level support and bounce off the support, price could stretch to all-time highs at which point we can reassess. o Macro Monday 3 – SPDR Homebuilder Index AMEX:XHB : The Chart can be used as a leading indicator for the US housing market as the stocks in the XHB comprise of companies that provide the materials and products to build new houses and renovate homes. These products are higher up the supply chain and sold before construction commences or during. In the past the XHB chart provided a significant advance 12 month+ warning of the 2007 Great Financial Crisis which is illustrated in red on that chart. - Since sharing the chart price appears to be on course to testing its all time high and has a bullish MACD Cross on the monthly. This could also be a double top however historic positive MACD Cross performance suggests we have higher to go. Its looking positive. o Macro Monday 5 – Arca Major Markets Index (XMI): The XMI has proven itself as a leading indicator as it provided an advanced 9 month warning of the follow up recession/capitulation price action that initiated in Sept 2000 on the S&P 500. - Since we shared this chart it has broken above its all time highs and is currently resting on support. A bounce higher here would be confirmation of the uptrend, however this could be a false breakout which would be confirmed if we lost the support. This chart will be important to watch for the August – September period also, again highlighting just how important these 2 months are. Conclusion Its clear from all of the above charts that the price and readings for the months of August and September 2023 will be critical to determining the potentiality of a recession / market capitulation or for letting us know will there be continuation of climbing the wall of worry. Its clear that we are at an inflection point over the next 60 days. Based solely on the charts shared to date the fact that the DJT, XMI and XHB are still leaning bullish, I remain long term long until these charts break down or the GNL and ISM Manufacturing Index confirms to the downside. That does not mean that we can’t get a 10% ,15% or 20% pullback in the S&P over the next 60 days, this would not surprise me, however based on some of the charts I have shared previously I think it is probably that this will be a temporary pull back. This leans me towards thinking that if there is a hard landing, it will come later in 2024 or even 2025. If that view changes and the above positive charts pull back, ill be the first to let you know. Stay Nimble folks, August and September are decision time. PUKA
ECONOMICS:USMNO
by PukaCharts
2
Macro Monday 22 - ISM Services Vs PMI US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (ISM Services) Next Release: 5th December 2023 (released on third business day of each month) The U.S. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Index (“ISM Services”) encompasses a wide range of services across various industries. The index is designed to measure the economic activity and health of the services sector in the United States some of which are professional services (accounting, legal, etc.), healthcare (hospitals, clinics & other practitioners), accommodation, leisure and food services. Similar to the ISM Manufacturing Index (aka as the Purchasers Managers Index) which surveys producers and manufacturers which we covered in Macro Monday 13, the ISM Services index is also based on surveys conducted on participants in the relevant services sectors noted above. Also similar to the ISM Manufacturing index, the ISM Services is reported as a diffusion index, where values above 50 indicate expansion or growth in the sector, while values below 50 suggest contraction. This makes both the ISM Manufacturing Index and ISM Services Index easy to compile onto a chart for comparison purposes. The ISM Services Vs ISM Manufacturing Chart The chart demonstrates the following: ▫️ At present ISM Services has been more resilient and is in expansionary territory at 51.8 (above 50) whilst ISM Manufacturing is in contractionary territory below the 50 level at 46.7. ▫️ Both the ISM Services Index and the ISM Manufacturing Index have been in a downward trajectory since 2021. - You can clearly see that since March 2021 the Manufacturing Index has declined from 64.5 down to 46.7 today (Red Line). - Thereafter from November 2021 the ISM Services Index declined from 67.5 down to 51.8 today (Blue Line). ▫️ As you can see on the chart a steep manufacturing decline can often provide advance an warning of a subsequent services decline (grey areas on chart). It’s important to acknowledge that the Manufacturing Index can lead the ISM Services Index. It is important because we discovered in Macro Monday 13 that the Manufacturing Index (AKA Purchaser Managers Index) reading below 42 can provide an advance/confirmation warning of recession, thus more weight could be assigned to the Manufacturing Index than Services Index in predicting a recession (as it appears to lead services direction). For this reason we will review the ISM Manufacturing Index (PMI) indications below. The ISM Manufacturing Chart The main findings of the ISM Manufacturing Index (AKA Purchaser Managers Index) From a Recession Perspective ▫️ 11 of the 12 recessions on the chart coincided with a PMI of less than 42. ▫️ 1 recession occurred that did not breach below the 42 level (No. 9 on the chart) From a PMI Perspective ▫️ 12 of the 13 times that the PMI moved below the 42 level, this coincided with a recession. ▫️ 1 time we have had a sub 42 PMI reading without a recession (Between 11 & 12 on the chart). At present we are at a level of 46.7 so we do not currently have a trigger event for a recession but we know exactly what to look for. Based on both historical perspectives, there is an c.92% probability of a recession should a sub 42 PMI level be established, or vice versa, in the event of a recession confirmation there is a c. 92% probability it would coincide with the sub 42 PMI level. Timing ISM Manufacturing Bottoms o 10 out of 12 PMI Bottoms occurred in Q1 and the remaining two bottoms were in Q2. 83% of the time the PMI bottoms occur in Q1 which is good to know and watch for with Q1 2024 approaching swiftly. o The average PMI Bottom to bottom timeframe over the past 6 cycles is 58 months (Min 37 – Max 86). We are presently at month 44 and month 58 is Jan 2025 (Q1) The ISM New Orders Index (30% of the PMI) Similar to the ISM New Orders Index Chart (covered in Macro Monday 6) which makes up 30% of the Purchaser Managers Index or Manufacturers Index (PMI), we have not reached below the 42 level on this chart either which has provided a 100% confirmation of recession when we have had a definitive move below the 42 level historically. At present we are at 45.5 on this chart and we seem to have a downward trajectory at present unless something changes upon the next data release. In summary, we now know now that the Manufacturers Index (PMI) often leads the Services Index, and we need to pay close attention to the 42 level on both the New orders Index (Makes up 30% of PMI) and the Manufacturing Index (PMI) as a breach below this level on these charts increases the probability of a recession upwards of 92%. We are also now aware that there is a high incidence of the PMI bottoming in Q1 (83% of the time) and occasionally in Q2. These are quarters we can be on high alert for a sub 42 level. The ISM Services PMI is released on the third business day of each month at 10:00 a.m. (EST) or 15:00 GMT. The next release will be on the Tuesday the 5th December 2023. Most of the ISM data releases commence within the first 5 working days of the month. As always folks, I will watch the numbers and keep you informed. All of the above charts are updated on TradingView as data is released. PUKA
ECONOMICS:USNMPMI
by PukaCharts
ISM New Orders vs Consumer SentimentISM New Orders Vs Michigan Consumer Sentiment index ISM New orders provide an indication of current consumer demand. Utilising a chart of New Orders readings we can attempt to understand the trend of consumer demand forward. ISM New Orders could be considered an additional gauge of consumer sentiment because if businesses are reporting increases in orders month over month, this demonstrates consumers have the consistently had the resources and the desire to spend. If this continues over months a trend can form and we can capture this direction on a chart. To support the ISM predictive argument I include a chart that illustrates a correlation between the ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, the latter of which is considered one of thee leading indicators for predicting future consumer spending/demand. This will be posted in the comments. According to Investopedia "ISM data is considered to be a leading indicator of economic trends. Not only does the ISM Manufacturing Index report information on the prior two months, it outlines long-term trends that have been building over time based on prevailing economic conditions". According to the University of Michigan, the Consumer Sentiment Surveys "have proven to be an accurate indicator of the future course of the national economy." Based on the above correlation I postulate that we can use the ISM New Orders Index as an additional leading/predictive indicator to establish what direction consumer demand is trending. Something we can keep an eye on and something that will factor in this weeks MACRO MONDAY Edition which i will post immediately after this PUKA
ECONOMICS:USMNO
by PukaCharts
ISM Manufacturing Index has peakedThe ISM manufacturing index or purchasing managers' index is considered a key indicator of the state of the U.S. economy. It indicates the level of demand for products by measuring the amount of ordering activity at the nation's factories. The PMI number, which is announced on the first business day of each month, can greatly influence investor and business confidence. An index of more than 50 indicates an expansion in the manufacturing segment of the economy in comparison with the previous month while a reading of 50 indicates no change and a reading below 50 suggests a contraction of the manufacturing sector. The ISM will be something to watch during the next couple of month giving us indications on the health of the economy
MShort
by CarpeMomentum
5
Wilshire 4500- You are not in the crystal ball businessWhat a crazy time we are in. 5 months ago, all was gloom and doom. Last month, almost every asset class was up except USD. SP500 has been above 3200 for one month and Nasdaq has been hitting ATH for 3 straight months. How do you explain this market irrationality? One possible reason is that pension, endowment funds and investors are forced to invest in equity market in the ultra low-interest environment. According to AAII (American association of individual investors) asset allocation's survey in July, 33.6% is invested in stock funds and 28.6% is invested in stocks. Only 3.4% is invested in bonds. According to Nomura, growth stocks have been outperforming value stocks for the last 15 years . Investor's penchant for fast growth and high valuation stocks lead to more velocity and volatility. According to Chris Irons of QTR research, holding period for stock has been steadily dropping over the past two decades. In the last two months, the stock holding period has gone down from 8 and half months to 5 and half months. In the current environment, market is flooded with high momentum stocks and the lure of chasing the rainbow is driving the increasingly common day trading mentality. Such volatile atmosphere typically leads to more FOMO behaviors. It makes even more sense if you factor in the wide availability of zero commission and fractional trading. Positive vaccine news may have also lifted the investor sentiment and contributed to the irrational exuberance. Has the market factored in all the bad news as it was mostly immune to the record-shattering bad GDP and resurgence of Covid-19 cases in July? Despite the poor GDP #, most other economic indicators actually improved including the ones I showed in the chart. Stock market momentum may stall, or it may even crash in the near future. However, at this point, I believe it will take extraordinary events such as hyperinflation, weakening of dollar (lose of reserve status), sovereign debt crisis, massive eviction or consumer debt default to go back to March low. With programs like PPE and massive QE to infinity in place, FED will ensure that interest rate remains low and continue to bail out zombie company in order to keep unemployment lvl artificially low. Thanks for reading through my analysis. Please follow me and click like. Much appreciated.
W
by Libratus