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USD/JPY forms bearish H&S reversal pattern on hourly chart.On the hourly chart of USD/JPY, it appears that the price is currently situated at the forefront of a bearish Head and Shoulders Reversal Pattern. It is possible that a subsequent move towards the 133.00s may occur. The current sentiment towards risk has declined, and coupled with the decreasing US Treasury yields over a longer-term period, there has been an increase in demand for the Yen. As previously mentioned, the USD/JPY has formed a Head and Shoulders pattern that indicates a reversal, and today, the price has retraced towards the dynamic neckline. As a result, our forecast remains bearish.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
USD/JPY price could potentially decline due to Reversal H&S During the Tokyo session, the USD/JPY pair is attempting to reclaim the immediate resistance of 134.50. This move comes as the new Bank of Japan Governor, Kauo Ueda, emphasizes the importance of maintaining an accommodative monetary policy. Governor Ueda is a staunch advocate for continuing the ultra-loose monetary policy, which has been in place for a decade, on the assumption that Japan's inflation will peak sooner. From a technical standpoint, a reversal Head and Shoulders pattern has emerged on the lower timeframe. If the price breaks below the neckline, currently located around 133.75, the price may decline, and the opportunity to recapture the resistance at 134.50 could be lost.
Short
by FOREXN1
5
GBP/CHF Rebounds After Dip, Potential for Upside Momentum.The Friday trading session witnessed a downward trend in the GBP/CHF pair, however, from the early North American session onwards, the pair showed a tendency to reverse course and recover some of its earlier losses. On the technical front, the analysis reveals a rebound following the profit-taking event after a recent Double Top formation. There is a possibility of the price gaining new upside momentum and returning to the 1.1300 area.
Long
by FOREXN1
3
NZD/USD:Hawkish Fed Rhetoric Weighs, Amid Inflationary PressureThe NZD/USD was weighed down for the third time this week by the hawkish rhetoric of Federal Reserve officials. While Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker indicated that the Fed is nearing the end of its rate-hiking cycle, his colleague, Cleveland's Fed President Loretta Mester, suggested that rates should exceed 5% due to high inflationary pressures. Furthermore, economic data from New Zealand has been lacking, with inflation reported lower than the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's estimates at 1.2% QoQ, potentially prompting the RBNZ to pause its tightening cycle. At its latest meeting, the RBNZ implemented a hawkish 50 bps hike. As traders prepare for the weekend, the US economic docket will showcase Fed Governor Lisa Cook in the upcoming week. On the technical side, the NZD/USD is currently under Bearish pressure, with a potential support level around the 0.61000 area, which could signal the start of a bullish impulse in price.
by FOREXN1
3
GBP/JPY Faces Bearish Chart Formation with Mild Gains: AnalysisAt the start of the London trading session on Monday, GBP/JPY shows a slight increase in value, hovering around 166.50. However, the cross-currency pair is facing a challenge in maintaining its upward momentum over the past four days, as it is currently caught in a bearish chart pattern, known as the Head and Shoulders pattern. If the dynamic trendline of the pattern, referred to as the "Neckline," is broken, this could confirm a downside trend for the pair. However, if the price manages to rise above the level of the Right Shoulder, it may indicate a long setup.
by FOREXN1
5
EUR/USD: All You Need to Know for Next WeekThe markets are sending mixed signals in the midst of an uncertain economic outlook. Even central bankers seem uncertain about what to do next. However, recent economic data from the US indicates that the economy is slowing down and inflation is decreasing. Interestingly, there were no banking failures this week. On Friday, the US Dollar rebounded strongly, erasing some of its weekly losses. However, despite this positive development, the overall trend for the dollar remains bearish. Experts predict that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will likely raise interest rates one last time in May, before initiating a long pause, followed by rate cuts. The bond market also seems to suggest that a recession is on the horizon, with lower interest rates expected by the end of the year. Meanwhile, the EUR/USD exchange rate rose for the week, reaching a year-high above 1.1000. Although the trend is still bullish, some signs of exhaustion are starting to emerge. Next week's Eurozone PMI data could prove critical for the European Central Bank's (ECB) future monetary policy decisions. While the market currently anticipates that the ECB will raise interest rates further, weak PMI numbers could lead to a revision of this outlook for the second half of the year.
by FOREXN1
7
GOLD Price Holds Steady at 13-Month High Amid Fed Policy TalksThe gold price (XAU/USD) continues to hold steady at its highest level since March 2022, reaching HKEX:2 ,040 early on Friday in Asia. The precious metal is seeking more clues to sustain its recent upward trend towards the record high of HKEX:2 ,075, which was reached in 2020. Despite recent inaction, XAU/USD is benefiting from a softer US Dollar due to weaker US inflation signals and talk of a Federal Reserve (Fed) policy pivot. These factors have been supported by the latest data and events. The recession concerns and positive news from China, one of the world's largest XAU/USD consumers, are also contributing to the gold price's upward momentum. The immediate direction of the gold price will depend on key data such as US Retail Sales, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and Consumer Inflation Expectations. Traders will be watching these indicators closely to gauge the future movement of XAU/USD.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
22
EUR/USD Targets 1.1100 as Fed and ECB Uncertainty LoomsAs the risk-on sentiment gains strength, EUR/USD is targeting the critical resistance level of 1.1100, while the Federal Reserve is expected to reassess its plan for further rate hikes due to a softening of the US CPI and PPI and a more relaxed labor market. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is divided over the pace of policy-hiking needed to curb core inflation. The USD Index has been declining, and EUR/USD is on track for its seventh consecutive bullish weekly close. In the early European session, EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1070, with expectations that the currency pair will continue its upward journey towards the round-level resistance of 1.1100. This is due to the US Dollar Index (DXY) struggling to maintain its downside momentum, remaining in the hands of the bears on Thursday, after the Producer Price Index (PPI) report for the United States showed higher-than-expected softening. This has strengthened the need to pause the policy-tightening cycle earlier than previously anticipated.
Long
by FOREXN1
12
GOLD: Promising Long Setup, Anticipated Bullish Surge Ahead!Gold prices skyrocketed following the release of US inflation data, which turned out to be below market expectations. XAU/USD surged from HKEX:2 ,007/oz to HKEX:2 ,028, achieving the highest level in six days. The US Labor Department disclosed on Wednesday that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% MoM in March, missing the market consensus of 0.3%. The annual rate also slowed down from 6% to 5%, falling below the market consensus of 5.2%. Meanwhile, the Core rate met expectations by rising 0.4% in March. As a result of the inflation figures, the US Dollar experienced a decline, with the DXY reaching weekly lows near 101.50, and US yields sinking. The US 10-year bond yield plunged from 3.44% to 3.37%, while Wall Street futures rose significantly. The potential for a new long extension is promising, as the 2.060 target may be reached.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
21
EUR/USD Shows Potential for Growth...In the early Asian session today, the EUR/USD currency pair made a noteworthy move by touching the psychological resistance level of 1.1000. This marks the first time in over two months that the major currency pair has reached this level. While the pair is facing obstacles in extending its rally beyond this point, the upside momentum is still holding strong. This is partly due to the fact that the United States inflation has softened as predicted by market participants. As of now, it remains to be seen whether the price will continue to rise throughout the day. Nevertheless, the current trend suggests that there is potential for further growth.
Long
by FOREXN1
11
GBP/USD: Anticipated Breakthrough at 1.2525 and 1.2600 Levels!According to recent market trends, GBP/USD is anticipated to face resistance at 1.2525, followed by 1.2600. The currency pair has dropped to an intraday low around 1.2480, coinciding with the release of mostly discouraging economic data for February from the UK. The pullback in the Cable pair could be attributed to the US Dollar's corrective rebound, which comes amidst a sluggish trading session and a sparse economic calendar. In February 2023, the UK's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) saw a marginal growth of 0.0%, failing to meet the expected 0.1% increase, and falling short of the 0.4% recorded in the previous month. While YoY Industrial Production improved, the MoM figures showed a decline. Further analysis of the data revealed an increase in the UK's trade deficit, while the Index of Services remained unchanged.
Long
by FOREXN1
3
EUR/USD Eyes 1.100 Target Amidst US Core CPI ReleaseThe EUR/USD currency pair has received a modest boost as investors return from their Easter holidays. The key event to watch out for today is the release of the US Core CPI, which could potentially determine the pair's chances of surging above the critical 1.100 level. Our focus today centers on the prospect of the EUR/USD continuing its upward trajectory towards the coveted 1.100 target. This would be a significant milestone for the pair, and investors are eagerly keeping an eye on the market to see if this outcome is plausible. To achieve this, it will require a combination of favorable economic data, improved market sentiment, and increased investor confidence in the Eurozone. These factors will play a crucial role in determining the currency pair's movements and overall market outlook. In conclusion, the EUR/USD's performance today hinges on the release of the US Core CPI data and how it will affect the pair's chances of breaking above the 1.100 level. We will continue to monitor the market closely and keep you updated on any developments.
Long
by FOREXN1
23
GOLD:Prices Hit Weekly High, Eyes on US Inflation & Fed MeetingIt appears that gold has experienced a fresh long bullish impulse in the long direction, resulting in a surge in prices for two consecutive days, with a new weekly high of around HKEX:2 ,021 on Wednesday. However, there is a possibility of a pullback, as XAU/USD retreated to the HKEX:2 ,010 region during the first half of the European session. Traders are closely monitoring the release of the US consumer inflation figures and the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting minutes, which are expected to influence market expectations regarding the Fed's next policy move. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is particularly significant in this regard. The Fed minutes will also provide valuable insight into how policymakers viewed the need for higher rates in the midst of banking sector turmoil. This information will enable investors to determine the near-term trajectory for the US Dollar (USD), which in turn will provide a fresh directional impetus for the non-yielding Gold price.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
12
GBP/USD Under Selling Pressure Due to Expected Fed TighteningThe GBP/USD currency pair experienced some selling pressure after a brief surge to the 1.2445 level during intraday trading, leading to a partial reversal of the previous day's significant upward movement. The spot prices have now fallen to a new daily low in the early part of the European trading session, with bears anticipating a sustained break below the significant round-number level of 1.2400 before making any further trades. The possibility of additional policy tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed) has served as a floor for US Treasury bond yields and has acted as a tailwind for the US Dollar (USD), which, in turn, is placing downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair. Market participants have been pricing in a higher likelihood of another 25 bps rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting in May. The bets were reinforced by hawkish comments made overnight by Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker, who indicated that the US central bank is fully committed to bringing inflation back down to the 2% target. Our approach is centered on a retest area of 1.2400, where we anticipate a pullback, allowing us to observe whether the price will continue to move in the direction of the main trend.
Long
by FOREXN1
7
USD/JPY: Japan's Confidence Rises but US Employment is STRONG !Bank of Japan Governor Ueda recently gave his first news conference since taking on his new role, and he made it clear that he has no plans to make any major changes to the current monetary policy. While some people expected Ueda to take steps towards normalization, such as removing yield curve control, he stated that the current policy is appropriate for the economy. There has been speculation that Ueda will make significant moves in the coming months, as Japan faces inflation above the Bank of Japan's 2% target. However, Ueda's message of "stay tuned for more of the same" has lowered expectations of a policy shift at the April 28th meeting, causing the yen to decline. Despite this, there was some positive news for Japan's policy makers, as consumer confidence rose to 33.9 in March, the highest level since May 2022. However, consumer confidence remains in negative territory, below the 50-level which separates contraction from expansion. In the United States, the employment report for March was solid, with 236,000 jobs added to the economy. Although this was slightly softer than February's reading, the labor market has remained resilient to rate hikes, and the odds of a 25-bp rate hike have increased to 68% according to the CME Group.
Long
by FOREXN1
7
GOLD Holds Steady Despite Market Anxiety of US Inflation DataGold prices have dipped towards HKEX:1 ,990.00 as the US Dollar Index (DXY) makes gains. Despite this, investors remain optimistic about a potential rebound in US inflation figures, buoyed by solid labor market conditions. While gold prices are declining towards an upward-sloping trendline plotted at HKEX:1 ,885.77, there is hope that Wednesday's US inflation data will provide further guidance. Although the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to moderate due to lower gas prices in March, core inflation - which excludes oil and gas prices - may show a surprise upside as household earnings remain strong. Although S&P500 futures have extended losses on fears of further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed), there is a general feeling of positivity within the market. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to push rates above 5% in order to address persistent inflation, potentially leading to higher earnings for acquiring fresh talent. Despite a drop in US Treasury yields, the outlook for gold prices remains optimistic.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
15
EUR/USD Maintains Uptrend Despite Easter Monday Holiday PressureThe EUR/USD pair has pulled back from its intraday high of 1.0900, but it's still under pressure as traders look for fresh clues to continue the uptrend that has lasted for four weeks. This is likely due to the Easter Monday holiday mood and anticipation of upcoming top-tier events and data releases this week. Traders are feeling optimistic about EUR/USD prices, and this can be attributed to concerns about the US Dollar's status as a reserve currency, as well as the more hawkish comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) compared to the Federal Reserve (Fed). While we may not see many big movements during the Easter Monday holiday, upcoming events such as the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes will be essential in providing clearer direction for the EUR/USD pair.
by FOREXN1
9
GBP/USD Showing Bullish Continuation Pattern 50% Fibo 1.2400 SUPDuring early Easter Monday morning in London, the GBP/USD currency pair is experiencing a drop for the fourth consecutive day, as it takes offers to refresh the intraday low near 1.2400. This is a result of the US Dollar rebounding due to risk aversion and hawkish bets on the US Federal Reserve (Fed), following last week's pullback from a 10-month high. Meanwhile, the Bank of England's (BoE) next move is uncertain, causing doubts about the pair's future direction. Based on our analysis, the GBP has experienced a pullback towards the 1.2400 area, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci level. We have identified a bullish flag pattern of continuation, indicating that there is a high probability of a new bullish impulse for the Cable.
by FOREXN1
10
GOLD Price Remains Defensive Amid Recession Fears and GeopoliticDuring the early hours of Good Friday, the XAU/USD remains defensive at $2,007 after experiencing the largest drop in two weeks. The lack of liquidity driven by the holiday and caution ahead of the top-tier United States employment data for March is restricting XAU/USD movements. Furthermore, the fear of a recession is also affecting the Gold price, even though the US Dollar is struggling to recover, mainly due to the downbeat US statistics. The consecutive weakness in the United States data and downbeat US Treasury bond yields led to fears of a recession in the world’s largest economy. As a result, the Gold price recently experienced the biggest daily loss in nearly two weeks, ending a three-day uptrend. The latest US employment data showed that the US Initial Jobless Claims improved to 228K, whereas the Challenger Job Cuts for March rose to 89.703K from 77.77K prior. Furthermore, the US JOLTS Job Openings dropped to a 19-month low in February, and the ADP Employment Change for March disappointed markets with 145K figures. Additionally, the US ISM Services PMI for March also dropped to 51.2 versus 54.5 expected and 55.1 prior, amplifying pessimism. Reuters recently flagged fears of a recession by citing the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s preferred bond market indicator’s latest slump. The news reported, “Research from the Fed has argued that the ‘near-term forward spread’ comparing the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now with the current yield on a three-month Treasury bill was the most reliable bond market signal of an imminent economic contraction.” Wall Street is licking its wounds, and the US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields are also staying pressured, despite the latest consolidation around 3.30% and 3.83% in that order. Due to the looming fears of a recession, Gold traders will have to closely examine the incoming US employment data to trade better. Moreover, escalating geopolitical fears surrounding the US, China, Russia, and North Korea also seem to poke XAU/USD prices. China’s criticism of the US-Taiwan ties and dislike of the White House competition hints at worsening relations among the world’s top two economies. The same should weigh on the Gold price, considering China’s status as one of the world’s biggest Gold consumers, as well as due to the likely US Dollar’s haven demand. In addition, the Ukraine-Russia war and Moscow’s tussle with the West, as well as North Korea’s warning to use nuclear powers, also roil the geopolitical context and prod the Gold buyers. In contrast to the aforementioned catalysts, the latest moves in the market against the US Dollar’s reserve currency status seem to allow the Gold price to stay on the bull’s radar amid the downbeat greenback. Russia’s latest likes for the Chinese Yuan and the China-Brazil pact to ignore the US Dollar as an intermediate currency challenge the greenback’s imperial status. Adding strength to the Gold’s likelihood are the chatters that some of the US Congressmen have proposed a Gold Standard Restoration Act to defend the US Dollar. The bill suggests re-pegging the greenback with a fixed amount of the Gold’s weight, like it was before 1971. Looking forward, the Gold price relies on how the United States employment data arrives for March, especially amid recession woes and receding hawkish Fed bets. The market forecasts suggest a softer print of the headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), to 240K from 311K prior, as well as no change in the Unemployment Rate of 3.6%. However, the mixed expectations for the Average Hourly Earnings make the outcome even more interesting for Gold
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
32
EUR/USD Pauses Weekly Gains on Friday Holiday and US Jobs DATAOn Good Friday, the EUR/USD pair took a pause after a three-week uptrend, but it still posted its third consecutive weekly gain due to the European Central Bank's relatively more hawkish bias. The pair is currently hovering around 1.0920 as Euro bulls await the US Nonfarm Payrolls, which will be released on Friday. The holiday has also limited the pair's reaction to data. The latest data from Germany and the Eurozone kept the European Central Bank hawks on the table, unlike their US counterparts. Germany's Industrial Production (IP) rose by 0.6% YoY in February, beating market forecasts of -2.7% and the previous reading of -1.6%. Additionally, the monthly figures were also better than expected, with a growth of 2.0% versus 0.1% forecasted and 3.7% in the previous reading. Germany Factory Orders improved to -5.7% YoY for February, compared to -12.0% revised down prior and -10.5% market forecasts, while the MoM growth came in at 4.8% versus 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings. However, Eurozone S&P Global Composite PMI and Services PMI declined to 53.7 and 55.0 in March, respectively. In contrast, US economic health remains a concern as the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge cited recession woes. The recent research from the Fed argued that the "near-term forward spread" comparing the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now with the current yield on a three-month Treasury bill was the most reliable bond market signal of an imminent economic contraction. The European Central Bank policymakers' hawkish tone is favorable for the Euro buyers, but the downbeat US employment clues and the IMF's Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva's prepared remarks about the global economy growing by less than 3% in 2023, down from 3.4% in 2022, put a floor under the EUR/USD prices. All eyes are on the US employment numbers, which are expected to have a softer print of the headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) to 240K from 311K prior, with no change in the Unemployment Rate of 3.6%. The mixed expectations for the Average Hourly Earnings make the outcome even more interesting.
by FOREXN1
10
Is it possible for the price of SILVER to reach $26? LONG IDEAOver the last few days, the price of silver (XAG/USD) has been fluctuating around $25.00. After reaching a one-year high on Wednesday, the value has retreated and remained relatively stable during Good Friday's inactive Asian session, hovering around $24.95. Despite this, the precious metal remains in a good position for a fourth consecutive weekly gain. Market signals in the options market suggest a positive trend. For instance, the one-month risk reversal (RR) for the silver price, which measures the spread between the call and put options, registered a slight daily decline of -0.1000 at the end of Thursday's North American session. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that the weekly RR has increased for four consecutive weeks, reaching 0.2000 in the latest data. Additionally, the options market signals for April are also strong after experiencing the most significant gains in a year in March. Despite the positive signals in the options market, the Good Friday holiday could limit the XAG/USD movements ahead of the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by FOREXN1
3
BoE survey: lower inflation, but GBP/CHF downside risk.The most recent survey from the Bank of England's Monthly Decision Maker Panel (DMP) was published on Thursday. The survey showed that DMP members anticipate that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation will be 5.8% one year from now, which is a slight decrease from the 5.9% forecasted in February. The DMP is a group of decision-makers from various businesses that provides insights into economic conditions and helps inform the Bank of England's policy decisions. The survey results reflect the expectations of these influential individuals, who anticipate a small reduction in inflation over the next twelve months. The Bank of England closely monitors inflation as it is a key indicator of economic stability. Inflation can impact the value of money, interest rates, and consumer spending. The central bank's monetary policy decisions are heavily influenced by inflation expectations. In summary, the latest Bank of England DMP survey indicates a slight reduction in CPI inflation expectations for the upcoming year. This information will be considered by the Bank of England as it makes monetary policy decisions in the coming months. However, in the GBP/CHF currency pair, there is evidence of a Double Top pattern forming, and if the Neckline of the pattern is breached, the price may decrease. This development suggests that caution is still warranted, despite the positive inflation news for the GBP.
by FOREXN1
5
GOLD Price Stable Despite US Data Impact on YieldsThe price of gold has remained relatively stable following its recent multi-month high, showing only mild fluctuations. This has been attributed to the continued impact of United States data, which has been weighing heavily on US Treasury bond yields and allowing the price of gold to remain relatively stable. This has also been due to threats to the US dollar's reserve currency status, as well as downbeat yields which have prompted investors to favor gold over other options. Despite a recent rise to the highest levels seen since March 2022, the precious metal's previous increase may be linked to the weakening of the US dollar amid downbeat US data and a decrease in hawkish bets on the Federal Reserve's next move. The continued recession has also contributed to the recent recovery in the price of gold, which has been buoyed by mixed signals and clues from the market. Overall, the price of gold has risen due to softer US Treasury yields and a rebound in the US dollar, which has prompted investors to favor gold over other options. Key negative factors for bond coupons and the greenback, which have led to an increase in the price of gold, include the employment numbers and the latest activity data. These factors, along with the potential for the US central bank to pause its rate hike trajectory in May, have led to a nearly 57% chance that the US dollar will weaken further, making gold an attractive option for investors. Despite some mild losses and fluctuations in recent days, multiple catalysts suggest that the price of gold may continue to rise in the future.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
11