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Brent - Oil waiting for new tensions?!Brent oil is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H time frame and is moving in its upward channel. At the bottom of the rising channel, which is also at the intersection with the demand zone, we will look for oil buying positions. If the upward trend continues, it is possible to look for oil selling positions within the specified supply zone. Israel plans to use U.S. military aid funds for purchasing new fighter jets. According to the Times of Israel, the United States has deployed additional F-15E fighters to the Middle East, especially to Jordan, due to a possible Iranian attack on Israel. Iranian leaders have warned of a “punitive” attack in response to previous Israeli assaults. Additionally, reports indicate that the United States has sent several B-52 bombers and THAAD missile defense systems to the region. Prolonged tensions in the Middle East could create significant risks for energy prices. Other upward risks include lower-than-expected North American oil production, increased competition for liquefied natural gas shipments, and higher-than-anticipated coal and natural gas consumption in Asia. Conversely, notable downward risks for energy prices also exist, particularly if the OPEC+ supply cuts end sooner than expected. This could lead to an oversupply of oil as well as slower-than-anticipated economic growth, including in China. The World Bank, maintaining a bearish outlook on the energy sector, forecasts a 6% decline in oil prices in 2025 and a 2% decline in 2026. Although geopolitical uncertainties may generate market volatility, analysts clearly foresee downside risks for oil. Citibank has projected that a second term for Donald Trump could exert downward pressure on oil prices through 2025, forecasting Brent crude to average $60 per barrel. Trump’s policies might reduce OPEC+ production and ease geopolitical tensions. These policies may also have mixed effects on global economic growth, potentially slowing global oil demand growth. However, the immediate impact on physical oil markets is expected to be limited.
BLACKBULL:BRENTLong
by Ali_PSND
Looking For Next Market Top AgainLooking for next top Submillennium 1 Grand Supercycle 5 - green Supercycle 1 Cycle 5 - orange Primary 5 - blue Intermediate 5 - pink Minor 5 - yellow Minute 5 - green I will try to find the next top off simply modified wave theory. First we need to set the baseline. I prefer the chart SPX500USD as it encompasses 23 hour trading during the week and can capture movement not always distinguishable in the SP:SPX chart. My first step is always to identify the location of wave 3 (if it exists). I do this by using my Elliott Wave 3 Finder v2 in conjunction with my RSI triple confirm indicator and a simple RSI 9. My wave 3 indicator will have a painted background at potential wave 3 locations, blue background for bearish reversals and pink for bullish reversals. My triple confirm RSI should signal in conjunction with the actual wave 3 point, red for bearish reversals and green for bullish reversals. My wave 3 indicator tends to spot wave 3 of 3 by displaying a gap between painted backgrounds. These indicators signal upon market close and are not considered finalized signals until the next bar begins. My baseline is in the 2 month chart. I have worked through the historical SPX chart and believe we are in the fifth and final wave (Grand Supercycle 5) of a larger structure (Sub Millennium 1) that began in the 1800s. This specific wave 5 began at the market bottom in 2009, and we are only in the first (Supercycle 1) of five waves to the upside. I do not expect a catastrophic market top for many decades to come. This chart picks up around 2004 to the current time. We are likely in Cycle wave 5 which began at the market low in October 2022. I have determined Cycle wave 3 to have ended at the peak at the beginning of 2022 based on the wave 3 indicator and RSI agreeing on a reversal point. In the moment, I would not have agreed the market topped in January 2022 as the indicators were still signaling. It is only on the preceding bar not producing a signal that an event is confirmed. Next I will determine common wave extensions off (Fibonacci levels) of Cycle wave 3's movement which began at the low in January 2016 at 1,806.25 and ended at 4,820.20 in January 2022. Wave 3 moved 3,013.95 points. Cycle wave 5 could move 123.6% to 138.2% of Wave 3's movement. These means a potential endpoint is between 5,531.49-5,971.53. This will be the orange outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above. Next I will try to identify a current Primary wave 3 inside of Cycle wave 5. My indicators point to Primary wave 3 ending around the mid-July 2024 on the 2-day chart based on the gap in the wave 3 indicators. There is not an RSI 3 signal in the 2-day chart for Primary wave 3, but there was one for Minor wave 3 in Intermediate wave 3 in Primary wave 3 around February 12, 2024. We can attempt to confirm this by seeing where the end of Intermediate wave 5's movement extended too. If Intermediate wave 3 began January 5, 2024 and ended March 29, 2024, Intermediate wave 5 topped close to 161.8% of Intermediate wave 3's movement as seen below: Based on this assumption, Primary wave 3 was likely over by mid-July 2024. The next Fibonacci wave extension levels for Cycle wave 5 could see this wave end between 108-123.6% of Primary wave 3's movement. This places a potential top between 5,806.48-6,052.34. This will be the light blue outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above. We will next move inside of Primary wave 5 which possibly began at the low from the beginning of August 2024. In looking for Intermediate wave 3 inside of Primary wave 5, the indicators point to Minor wave 3 of Intermediate wave 3 occurring on September 19, 2024 and the Minute wave 3 inside of Minor wave 3 occurring on September 13. If we find the Intermediate wave 5 extension from this Intermediate wave 3, a potential top sits between 5,816.26-5,936.51. This will be the pink outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above. Next we try to identify where we are in Intermediate wave 5. The 2-hour chart here indicates a possible Minor wave 3 occurring on October 9, 2024. A possible Minor wave 5 extension from here is a top between 5,825.38-5,868.50. This will be the yellow outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above. We can attempt to go a final level deeper inside of Minor wave 5. We currently have Minute wave 3 indications based on the high from earlier today at 5826.90. If this is the end of Minute wave 3, Minute 5 could top between 5,834.16-5,857.61. This will be the yellow outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above. Based on a this wave set being over a small timeframe, this top could happen before next Tuesday. This is zone of interest for a near-term top. This is purely theoretical, but Israel will likely strike at Iran soon. Iran has claimed they would respond quickly, but the prior instances saw long delays in the response. If Iran has an immediate response, a full on conflict would be underway in the Middle East. Not all wars are bad, but this one would likely impact oil and depending on the duration likely impact economies around the world. A contained conflict between a few nations likely would not spiral into a larger conflict, however, strong alliances on other side could turn this into a much greater event, closer to a world war situation. As drastic as this is, it could explain a potential near-term top. If conflict does not break out, we will likely see a short-term market top before continued movement higher and higher. Time will tell. Enjoy!
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by StockSignaler
4
$20 Spike if Israel Hits Iran’s Oil? The Israeli military warned that its response to Iran’s missile attack would be “serious and significant,” as Goldman Sachs forecasted that oil prices could surge by $20 per barrel if Iranian production is disrupted. Daan Struyven, Goldman’s co-head of global commodities research, stated on Friday that a "sustained drop of 1 million barrels per day" in Iranian output could lead to a peak increase of $20 per barrel next year, assuming OPEC+ does not immediately boost production, which typically requires time to implement. However, if key OPEC+ members like Saudi Arabia and the UAE step in to offset some of the supply loss, the price impact could be more moderate—around $10 per barrel, Struyven added. Goldman did not offer a specific price forecast if Israel were to target Iran's nuclear facilities, a scenario raised after Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump suggested such a strike was appropriate to recent missile activity from Tehran.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by BlackBull_Markets
WTI: Will Iran drag Saudi into conflict? Israeli officials are considering how to respond after an Iranian missile strike on Wednesday, which caused little damage, but definitely had the potential to do so. Their next steps could depend on the U.S. stance. President Joe Biden reaffirmed U.S. support for Israel but made it clear on Wednesday that he would not support Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites. Oil prices have already jumped 5% after Biden mentioned discussions about possible Israeli strikes on Iran’s oil industry. Iran, the world’s seventh-largest oil producer, exports about half of its oil, mainly to China. If tensions escalate into a broader conflict, Iran it is expected to draw Israel’s regional allies, including Saudi Arabia (an even larger oil producer than Iran) and Jordan, into the confrontation.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by BlackBull_Markets
Bitcoin Slips Amid Israel-Iran ConflictBitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) faced a sharp drop on Tuesday as geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran escalated, triggering a significant sell-off across the cryptocurrency market. Investors, seeking refuge in safer assets, moved towards bonds, gold, oil, and the US Dollar, leaving Bitcoin and altcoins under heavy selling pressure. Despite historically strong performance in October, this sudden market disruption has put the cryptocurrency’s best month under early threat. Geopolitical Tensions Cause Sharp Sell-off The price of Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) fell by 3.16%, reaching $61,715 levels. Altcoins, including Ethereum, suffered even more, plunging between 5-10% as the war tension escalated following Iran’s launch of over 200 ballistic missiles on Israel. Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ), which historically has seen an average gain of 25.81% in October, is now struggling to maintain its bullish seasonal trend, dropping by 4% in the first two days of the month. Sean McNulty, director of trading at Arbelos Markets, described the drop as a "momentary setback," stating that October's favorable trends for Bitcoin are "alive and well." However, the broader market is expected to stay on edge as Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promises retaliation. Adding to the pressure, Bitcoin ETF outflows surged to $242 million, breaking an eight-day streak of inflows. Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) appears weak but is beginning to show signs of recovery. After testing the critical $60,000 support level, CRYPTOCAP:BTC has rebounded 0.75% in Wednesday’s market session, trading at $61,715. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 47.49, reflecting neutral conditions but indicating a slight bearish tendency. Bitcoin’s recent recovery, however, may be short-lived if geopolitical instability persists. The critical $65,000 resistance level remains a barrier to any significant upward movement, and a failure to break through could see Bitcoin revisiting $57,000, as some analysts predict. Prominent analyst Benjamin Cowen highlighted that Bitcoin’s historical behavior post-Fed rate cuts could lead to a larger correction. If the pattern holds, the cryptocurrency could drop further before resuming its upward trajectory, targeting a potential low of $50,000 by mid-November. Safe Haven Shift & Mining Pressure The conflict in the Middle East has driven investors to flock to safe-haven assets, causing a temporary withdrawal from riskier assets like Bitcoin. The flight to safety has boosted the US Dollar, bonds, oil, and gold, while applying downward pressure on the broader crypto market. Additionally, a report by JPMorgan highlighted declining revenues among Bitcoin mining companies, with September seeing the lowest levels recorded in recent months. This drop in miner profitability could trigger another wave of selling pressure if the mining sector experiences further capitulation, exacerbating the downward trend in Bitcoin’s price. Despite the current challenges, analysts remain cautiously optimistic. McNulty and others believe that as tensions in the Middle East cool down, Bitcoin’s historical performance in October could lead to a rally that pushes the cryptocurrency back towards its all-time high (ATH) of $73,000. Historical Trends & Future Projections: Uptober Rally in Jeopardy? Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) has enjoyed an average 25.81% gain in October when preceded by a green September. In line with this, data from BTC Archive suggests Bitcoin could surge to as high as $80,500 this month, as the crypto has consistently posted green candles in the last three months of the year. Similarly, trading firm QCP Capital noted that Bitcoin has seen a 22.9% gain in eight out of the last nine Octobers. If this trend continues, BTC could rise to $78,000 or higher. However, for this to happen, Bitcoin will need to clear crucial resistance levels and weather any additional shocks from ongoing geopolitical conflicts. Analysts have also pointed out that spot Bitcoin ETF inflows remain strong, and perp funding rates are approaching levels reminiscent of the early 2023 bull run. If these inflows persist, Bitcoin could see the support needed to break through to new highs before the year ends. Conclusion While Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) has the potential to rally to new highs this month, the path will be far from straightforward. The Israel-Iran conflict, coupled with macroeconomic factors such as the US PMI data and Fed rate cuts, could create further volatility in the market. Still, Bitcoin's technical and fundamental strength may help it weather the storm and rebound toward its ATH as the year progresses. At the time of writing, Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) is trading at $61,715, up 0.73%, with momentum beginning to build for a potential rebound if market conditions stabilize. However, investors should remain cautious, as further geopolitical shocks could lead to more downward pressure in the short term.
Long
by DEXWireNews
2
TA35 / ISRAEL / TEL AVIV INDEXTA-35 (Tel Aviv 35 Index) Analysis: Key Dates and Potential Market Movements: 1. September 2, 2024 - Potential Trigger for Conflict: • Scenario: As we approach early September, particularly the 2nd of September, the chart suggests the potential for a significant market event. Given the current geopolitical climate in Israel, this date could coincide with an escalation in military conflict or a critical political decision. • Impact on Price: A surge in tension could lead to increased market volatility, causing the TA-35 to experience a sharp downturn as investors react to the heightened risks. • Reflection: In times of uncertainty and conflict, it is vital to seek peace and guidance from a higher power. As Psalm 46:1 reminds us, “God is our refuge and strength, an ever-present help in trouble.” 2. September 5, 2024 - Continued Market Volatility: • Scenario: Just a few days later, on September 5, 2024, the market may continue to react to ongoing developments. If the conflict escalates, we could see a prolonged period of instability, impacting both the local and global markets. • Impact on Price: The TA-35 could face additional downward pressure, potentially testing support levels, as investors weigh the long-term implications of the conflict. • Reflection: As the world watches the unfolding events, let us remember to pray for peace and for the safety of all those affected by the conflict. Matthew 5:9 says, “Blessed are the peacemakers, for they will be called children of God.” 3. September 25, 2024 - Potential Resolution or Further Escalation: • Scenario: By late September, specifically around the 25th, there may be signs of either a de-escalation or further intensification of the conflict. This period could see significant diplomatic efforts or, conversely, an escalation that could extend the market volatility. • Impact on Price: Depending on the situation, the TA-35 might either stabilize or continue its downward trend. A resolution could lead to a recovery in the market, while further conflict could prolong the downturn. • Reflection: In the midst of turmoil, it is essential to keep faith and hope alive. As Isaiah 40:31 encourages us, “But those who hope in the Lord will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint.” 4. December 10, 2024 - Market Recovery Phase: • Scenario: Looking ahead to December, the chart suggests a potential recovery phase. This could be driven by a resolution of the conflict, a stabilization of the political situation, or an easing of global tensions. • Impact on Price: If the situation improves, the TA-35 could experience a rebound, with investors regaining confidence and pushing the index higher. • Reflection: As the market begins to recover, let this serve as a reminder that even in the darkest times, there is always hope for renewal. Psalm 30:5 says, “Weeping may stay for the night, but rejoicing comes in the morning.” 5. April 6, 2025 - Long-Term Outlook: • Scenario: By April 2025, the chart indicates a potential for long-term stability and growth. This could be the result of sustained peace and economic recovery in Israel and the broader region. • Impact on Price: If the positive momentum continues, the TA-35 might reach new highs, reflecting the resilience of the market and the nation. • Reflection: As we look forward to the future, let us remain steadfast in our faith, trusting that God has a plan for peace and prosperity. Jeremiah 29:11 reminds us, “For I know the plans I have for you, declares the Lord, plans to prosper you and not to harm you, plans to give you hope and a future.” Considerations for Investors: • Geopolitical Risks: The ongoing conflict in Israel is a significant factor that could impact market stability. Investors should stay informed and be prepared for increased volatility. • Economic and Diplomatic Developments: Any progress towards a peaceful resolution or significant diplomatic initiatives could positively influence the market. • Long-Term Outlook: Despite short-term volatility, Israel’s strong economic fundamentals and innovation-driven industries could drive long-term growth. As we navigate these challenging times, how are you preparing your investment strategy? Are you considering both the risks and the opportunities that may arise in the coming months? And most importantly, how does your faith guide you in times of uncertainty?
TASE:TA35
by trushkovskiy
Fears Fail to Keep Gold Above $2,400: A Temporary Dip? Gold has slipped below the $2,400 mark even as geopolitical tensions possibly escalate, with Israel bracing for potential retaliation from Iran. US intelligence indicates the response could come late Thursday or Friday. Market attention is also directed towards the upcoming Initial Jobless Claims data, due on Thursday, which investors hope will provide further information about the labor market. Perhaps in an attempt to calm the volatility seen at the beginning of the week, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Tuesday that “none of the labor market indicators she looks at are flashing red at present ...”. Perhaps adding to the downward pressure on gold, major Asian central banks appear to have paused their physical gold buying sprees. Reports from the World Gold Council indicate that China has abstained from buying the precious metal for the third consecutive month. Technically, if the XAU/USD continues its downward trajectory, the next support level could lay at the 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Average. Further declines could test the May 3 low of $2,277.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
Bitcoin Could Drop to $51,000! Maybe 43,000! After a recent 20% decline to $49,000, Bitcoin is currently trading above $57,000, but it might decrease to $51,000. The key support level is $53,500. Bitcoin is again caught in a bearish technical pattern; a closing bullish channel! There are also rumors of a potential attack by Iran on Israel either tonight or tomorrow, which could drive Bitcoin down to $43,000 and cause another market downturn. However, this might potentially result in a positive divergence in the RSI. Although there is still optimism about the CME gap in the market, the risks outweigh the optimism significantly. In the current situation, if you don’t have a high risk tolerance, you might consider reducing some of your investment at this level. If you still have liquidity, you can dollar-cost average (DCA) into altcoins during potential dips.
Short
by Cryptowormshot
Gold trade with Israel-Iran in Focus Gold temporarily surged past $2,474 per ounce on Friday, marking a new record high, as a weak U.S. jobs report bolstered expectations of a dovish shift by the Federal Reserve. The U.S. economy added 114,000 jobs in July, significantly below the anticipated 175,000 increase. Gold prices have since pulled back slightly but are still trading just above the 100-hour moving average. Analysts foresee potential for another upward trend toward $2,490, though the MACD indicator, with its signal line crossing the MACD level, may suggest otherwise. Meanwhile, heightened tensions in the Middle East have continued to drive demand for safe-haven assets. The conflict between Israel and Iran escalated with a strike on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, resulting in the deaths of 12 children and teenagers. Subsequently, the Israeli military reported killing a senior Hezbollah commander in Lebanon, prompting several countries to advise their citizens to leave Lebanon amid fears of a broader regional conflict. In a further development, Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Iran while attending the inauguration of Iran’s new president. Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, vowed a “harsh punishment” for Israel in response. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the situation as a “multi-front war” with Iran and its proxies. The recent assassinations have likely undermined efforts to reach a ceasefire and a hostage release agreement between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
Israel & U.S. terrorise Lebanon!🩸For those not already aware what happened yesterday, Israel once again went back on their usual terrorism antics & attacked the country of Lebanon this time around. 🩸Israeli Intelligence have said they know Lebanon & Iran will now retaliate back to their attack, so they are preparing to attack again. 🩸American battleships are moving towards the shores of Lebanon, as the U.S. & Israel work together to carry out further terrorism in the name of ‘safety’.
TVC:DXY
by BA_Investments
1
Why Bitcoin's Halving Won't Save You if the Economy Goes Down As we navigate through an increasingly volatile economic landscape, similarities between the current market behavior and the period preceding the COVID-19 market crash have begun to surface, particularly concerning Bitcoin ( INDEX:BTCUSD ). This analysis delves into these parallels and discusses why the upcoming Bitcoin halving might not be the safety net investors hope for if a major economic downturn occurs. Historical Insights: The 2020 Pre-Halving Crash Back in early 2020, just before Bitcoin's much-anticipated halving, the cryptocurrency market experienced one of its most drastic crashes. Bitcoin's value plummeted by 41% in a single day, underscoring the rapid sentiment shift among investors from greed to fear. Notably, our Trend Model had signaled an exit from the market two weeks prior to this crash, prompted not by foreknowledge of the pandemic but by bearish behaviour on Bitcoin. At the time, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index was at a mere 39 out of 100, highlighting a market driven by fear— suggesting an oversold market. Current Market Conditions and Sentiment Fast forward to today, the echoes of the past resonate as the same indices and models show similar ominous signs. With geopolitical tensions escalating and the risk of major conflicts looming, our Trend Model recently signalled another exit. Interestingly, the current market sentiment, with a Fear and Greed Index score of 72, indicates a stark contrast: traders remain optimistic despite the negative price trends—a risky disconnect that could precede significant market corrections. Major market influencers continue to advocate bullish perspectives, with some viewing market dips as buying opportunities and others speculating about market manipulations linked to new ETF launches in Hong Kong. The general consensus among these influencers is that the impending halving will bolster Bitcoin prices. However, a closer look at historical data and market behavior suggests otherwise. The Halving: A Misunderstood Phenomenon The halving certainly impacts Bitcoin by reducing the reward for mining new blocks, theoretically increasing scarcity. However, the effect is neither immediate nor strong enough to counteract significant market downturns. After the 2020 halving, Bitcoin prices didn’t soar; instead, they entered a prolonged period of stagnation lasting 72 days. This historical precedent illustrates that halving does not inherently create upward price pressure but rather contributes to a slow, often muted, impact on the market. Technical Analysis and Future Predictions Applying Fibonacci Retracement to the current weekly Bitcoin charts suggests potential price corrections with levels possibly dipping between $38,000 and $45,000. Further analysis through the Limited Growth Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model indicates that Bitcoin is currently overbought. A retracement to $45,000 would align with this model’s estimation of Bitcoin's fair value. Conclusion: Navigating Uncertainty with Data While the hope for a market recovery persists, relying on the halving to safeguard Bitcoin investments in a turbulent economy is misguided. Our historical data and trend analysis underline the importance of cautious and informed trading strategies. Just as our model successfully predicted exits before major market crashes, including the COVID-19 downturn, Luna crash, and FTX collapse, it continues to guide us through these uncertain times. Investors would do well to remember that external factors such as geopolitical developments or economic crises can dwarf the effects of the halving, leading to sharp price declines. In this context, understanding and respecting the data’s warning signs is crucial for navigating the markets effectively, ensuring that decisions are based on insight rather than optimism.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by AlgoAlpha
4
Technical Analysis of RTX (Raytheon Technologies) Weekly ChartSubscribe & Follow For: ➞ Quick Chart Summary Breakdown ➞ Pertinent Supply Demand Zones and Considerations ➞ US Stocks / Crypto Only ➞ Before / After Analysis 🙏 Like & Subscribe 💬 Drop a line and let me know what you think 🍯 Coin donations always appreciated 🚀 Boost this post to share value NYSE:RTX is currently exhibiting a double megaphone pattern on the weekly chart, indicating a period of increased volatility and potential uncertainty in the market sentiment. This pattern typically suggests conflicting forces at play, with widening price swings signaling indecision among traders. Key Pattern: Double Megaphone A megaphone pattern, also known as a broadening formation, consists of two expanding trendlines that diverge away from each other. This pattern reflects growing volatility and uncertainty, with higher highs and lower lows being established over time. In this scenario with RTX we are showing two long term trends one inside of another. Explanation: Textbook Answer: This double megaphone pattern often signifies a struggle between bulls and bears, with neither side gaining a clear advantage. It also represents volatility & opportunity. It's up to us to determine price point where we can capitalize on positioning for profitability! Real World Answer: Manipulation & Perfect Timing As the price oscillates between the expanding trendlines, traders should exercise caution and closely monitor key support and resistance levels for potential trading opportunities. I got a feeling this one is going to be a mover! RSI Breakout with Hidden Divergence: In addition to the double megaphone pattern, RTX is exhibiting a notable breakout on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) with hidden bullish divergence and the highs are currently compromised with clear and visible hidden bearish divergence leading me to believe that we will revisit the 5th swing level (or in the vicinity of) one more time and see how well prices hold. Current Situation: At present, NYSE:RTX is approaching a critical juncture within the double megaphone pattern. Traders must evaluate whether the price will push through the upper trendline or revisit the lower trendline, known as the 5th swing in Elliott Wave Theory. Potential Scenarios: Managing Breakout: If RTX manages to break above the upper trendline of the double megaphone pattern, it could signal a bullish continuation, with the potential for further upside momentum. Traders may consider initiating long positions with appropriate risk management strategies in place. Revisit of 5th Swing (Lower Trendline) Conversely, if RTX fails to sustain upward momentum and revisits the lower trendline, it could indicate a bearish reversal or consolidation phase. Traders should be prepared for increased volatility and monitor key support levels for potential downside targets. Key Levels to Watch: Resistance: Upper trendline of both of the megaphone patterns. Support: Lower trendline (5th swing) and previous swing lows within the pattern. Conclusion: In conclusion, the presence of a double megaphone pattern on the RTX weekly chart suggests heightened volatility and uncertainty in the market. Traders should remain vigilant and adapt their strategies based on the price action relative to the pattern's trendlines. Granted the series of unfortunate events occurring on the global stage I could almost anticipate what is going to happen here in the long term As always, it's essential to incorporate risk management techniques and exercise caution when navigating such volatile market conditions. Note: Ensure to identify your price levels accordingly. This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Traders should conduct their own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
NYSE:RTXLong
by the_technical_trapper
Options Trading is Not about the GreeksCME: E-Mini S&P 500 Options ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) On March 24th, I published a trade idea, “Buckle Your Seatbelt for a Market Correction”, where I suggested that the US stock market was due for a major correction. Buying a Put contract on CME E-Mini S&P 500 Futures would be a trade to express this market view. How is this trade panning out? • On March 24th, the June S&P futures contract (ESM4) was settled at 5,289.75. The out-of-the-money (OTM) put strike 5,100 was quoted at 63. • To purchase a Put, a trader would pay an upfront premium of $3,150 (= 63 x 50). • On April 18th, the S&P has been down for five straight days, and ESM4 was settled at 5,49, losing about 4.6% since we first placed the trade on. Meanwhile, the 5100 put is now trading at 150.75. • Our put position is valued at $7,537.50 (= 150.75 x 50). If we were to close the trade now, we would realize a hypothetical return of +139.3% (= 150.75/63 -1) in less than a month, excluding transaction cost. While the underlying stock index is lowered for less than 5%, and the put strike is barely in-the-money (5049 is 51 points below 5100), the value of the put contract has been more than doubled. This trade showcases the attractiveness of an options strategy. Firstly, there is time value on the put contract. We have two more months to trade until the options expire on June 21st, the 3rd Friday of the contract month. The probability that the S&P could go significantly lower than 5100 makes the put options very valuable. Secondly, there is a multiplier of 50 built into the options contract. Each index point that the S&P moves in-the-money, the Put position will gain $50 per contract. Thirdly, the volatility of the S&P 500 index has increased 50% in the past month, from 12-12.50 to 18-19.50. Higher volatility makes options contracts more valuable. Options Greeks are Lagging Indicators My trade idea did not price in volatility increase. In fact, it did not even mention any of the options Greeks – Delta, Gamma, Theta, Vega, and Rho. In my opinion, the Greeks are concurrent indicators or lagging indicators. Take the VIX index as an example. It captures historical volatility about the S&P 500. However, options are priced by the implied volatility. It is the market consensus, or collective sentiments from all the buyers and sellers, about what volatility would be in the future. In this case, historical volatility is not very useful in gauging future volatility. All sophisticated options pricing models eventually bog down to a subjective estimate of the implied volatility. The Greeks are precise about what the market has been, but they are not useful in assessing how market sentiment will be a month from now. We could illustrate this with CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, which shows real-time market sentiments in Fed rate cut probability. • On March 24th, it indicated the probability of a 25-bp cut in June at 75.5%. There was a 77% chance that Fed Funds move to 4.50%-4.75% by year end, indicating a total of three rate cuts in 2024. Four total rate cuts, which would be a full percentage point lower, was priced at 43% probability. • On April 18th, the probability of a 25-bp cut in June is now down to just 15.3%. The probability for total rate cuts in 2024 are: 2 cuts (32.4%), 1 cut (36%) and no cut (15%). We may recall that only four months ago the market consensus was 6-7 rate cuts. (Link: www.cmegroup.com) If you measured the market last month based on the Greeks, you would have expected the S&P to go higher. Instead, market sentiment turned upside down as March CPI and Nonfarm payroll data completely destroyed the hope of near-term Fed rate cuts. Trading with E-Mini S&P Options In my opinion, the market correction is not over yet. There is a good likelihood that the S&P to move down 10%-15% from its peak of 5,265, to the range of 4,475-4739. Here are the key drivers: • US stock market had a spectacular run in the past two years on the back on AI revolution. While the seven Big Tech companies gained over 50%, the remaining 493 stocks registered low single-digit returns. We are now at the breaking point where the Magnificent Seven could no longer carry the heavy burden of the mediocre performance of the rest. • The lowered expectation of Fed rate cuts results in higher-than-expected future interest rates. This puts downward pressure on company valuation. I had several writings explaining how the discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation works. • Escalated geopolitical tension triggers a flight to safe-haven securities. Gold would gain in value while the stock market would decline. CME Group E-Mini S&P 500 Options provide leverage and capital efficiency. Options are based on futures contracts. The contract notional is $50 x S&P 500 Index. On April 19th, the June S&P futures contract (ESM4) is now quoted at 5,031.75. The 4,850-strike put is quoted at 64.75. To purchase a Put, a trader would pay an upfront premium for $3,237.50 (= 64.75 x 50). Hypothetically, if the S&P lowered 10% from its peak to 4,739, the put position would be 111 points in-the-money (= 4850-4739). The trader could exercise the options to capture the price difference or sell the put at a higher price. If the S&P ends up with a smaller correction, the trader could lose money, up to the full amount of the upfront premium. Options traders could find CME’s Options Calculator an easy-to-use tool in structuring their options strategies. The best part, it is free. www.cmegroup.com Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
5
DAX bears lose control following Israel's retaliationThe DAX dropped following the news that Israel retaliated for Iran's attack over the weekend. However, the bears seem to have lost control, with the hourly charge at a crossroads. The longer-term path shows a series of lower peaks followed by lower troughs. This suggests that the current up-leg may be an exploitable rally in the downtrend. The DAX hourly chart is showing signs of support. However, the daily chart is still under pressure. This video is intended for the users of Stratos Markets Limited, Stratos Trading Pty. Limited and Stratos Global LLC, (collectively “FXCM Group”). Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
FX:GER30
by FXCM
Bitcoin Halving PregameWhat are our thoughts on Bitcoin and the overall market/market sentiment? I have too many words right now for the markets. So many things converging as far as the dollar, rates, equities, and crypto. This chart is gorgeous and I love seeing the false breakdown over the Iran/Israel headlines. The bullish divergence on the RSI is also lovely. The SPY has finally filled a CME gap back from February. I think we will see a bottom begin to form from here, and whether or not this is the end of the downtrend remains to be seen. I think the probabilities of one more leg down are decent, but same with this being the end of the bear. PS: Elon Musk just tweeted a photo of a missile heading straight up.. and I'm not so sure it had anything to do with war ;)
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by ChazzyFreshh
Gold technical analysis amid Iran-Israel uncertainty Gold hovers around the $2,370, with trading range relatively narrow as investors closely monitor updates on the Iran-Israel conflict. Israel's stance on retaliating against Iran revolves not around whether but when and how to strike back. Bezalel Smotrich, Israel's Finance Minister, advocates for a response that would impose a "disproportionate toll" on Iran, aiming to "shake Tehran" and deter future attacks. While any retaliation risks escalating the situation towards a broader conflict in the Middle East and a more profound global crisis, there's a lingering hope that Iran's reluctance for an all-out war, evidenced by their quick de-escalation following their recent attack, might mitigate the risk. Gold demonstrates resilience despite robust economic data from the US, suggesting that the current bull market isn't solely influenced by conventional macroeconomic factors. On the XAU/USD chart, a downward movement might necessitate testing the previous all-time high of $2,300 to consider a substantial reversal. However, the broader bullish sentiment could appear to persist, supported by the 4-Hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) sliding below 50 and the Momentum indicator showing a downward trend above its midpoint. The 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) possibly maintains a firmly bullish trajectory at approximately $2,281, sitting comfortably above the also bullish 100 SMA by roughly $200.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
⭐️ XAU/USD - WAR's effect on the $GOLD Price (IMPORTANT) Weekly Gold Market Analysis Upon examining the gold chart on a weekly basis, it was observed that last Friday marked a significant surge in gold prices. This increase was triggered by the announcement of a potential Iranian attack on Israel, propelling the price to $2431. Price Fluctuations and Corrections However, the ascent was short-lived, and the price underwent a sharp decline. In less than four hours, gold experienced a correction exceeding 1000 pips, eventually settling at $2344 by the market’s close. Market Reactions to Geopolitical Events The anticipated attack materialized on Sunday morning, leading to speculations of a price hike when the market reopened. As predicted, Monday saw gold’s value climb from $2344 to $2372. Despite this, the growth was modest, largely because the market had already factored in the news to a considerable degree on Thursday, resulting in diminished tensions. The Lingering Threat of Conflict Investors are advised to exercise caution as the specter of war continues to loom over the market. The coming days may witness escalating tensions, potentially driving gold prices higher. Technical Outlook and Price Projections It is crucial to monitor the $2404 threshold. Should the price fail to breach this level and instead retreat towards the $2200 channel, with the weekly candle closing within this range, there could be a further downturn in gold prices. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ArmanShabanTrading
2
Gold & oil volatility grows amid Middle East escalationFinancial markets are bracing for the uncertainty surrounding Iran's recent strike on Israel and the potential for retaliatory measures. Mohamed A. El-Erian, Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz, remarked that the current situation may lead to elevated gold and oil prices, alongside lower US Treasury yields and stocks compared to what would have been expected otherwise. In the previous week, investors flocked to gold, driving it to reach new record highs. Will we see more records hit this week? Early trading this Monday Asian session has shown a gap upwards. Since April 1st, the energy market has been on edge regarding a potential Iran-Israel conflict, hinting at the likelihood of highly volatile oil trading in the upcoming week. Additionally, concerns arise over signs of Iran's inclination towards a soft blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which could result in supply chain disruptions and increased oil prices. The escalating tensions may also further prompt the Federal Reserve to exercise caution in interest rate cuts, as higher oil prices could steer inflation away from the Fed's target. On Friday, the U.S. dollar index surged to its highest level since November, while the euro dipped to a five-month low against the dollar following indications from the European Central Bank of potential interest rate cuts. This broad strengthening of the dollar also drove the yen to a fresh 34-year low as investors monitored for potential intervention by Japanese monetary authorities to stabilize the currency.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
📈Bitcoin: Geopolitical Tensions Impact Market Dynamics🚨🔍Today, we're focusing on Bitcoin, which has formed a range box in the 4-hour timeframe between 63054 and 73305. Following the uptrend from 40k, this consolidation phase is a logical pause, potentially leading to a correction in the weekly timeframe, especially considering the imminent Halving event, which may precede a bullish rally. ⚡️In range-bound markets, whales often execute buy or sell orders within these ranges. We shouldn't play into the hands of these whales; therefore, it's better to be patient and wait for a breakout above 73305 for a long position, or wait for the candle to close below 63054 for a short position. 📊The volume of red candles is significantly high, partly due to the sharp decline we witnessed last night following Iran's attack on Israeli soil, causing a 20-40% decline in most altcoins. However, Bitcoin found support at 63054, preventing further decline. 💥The RSI indicator dipped into oversold territory and bounced back, currently oscillating near the 30 mark. A move into oversold territory coupled with candlestick confirmation could trigger another sharp decline, potentially coinciding with news of further conflict between Iran and Israel. ⚡️The POC (Point of Control) in the fixed range volume profile was lost last night, with attention now focused on 63054. If this level is breached, Bitcoin could test the 52k range. 📝Finally, it's essential to note that at the onset of a conflict, markets initially experience a downturn as governments aim to increase liquidity. However, Bitcoin tends to appreciate afterward, as individuals in conflict-stricken countries seek to move their assets abroad, making Bitcoin the preferred choice. This could mark the beginning of the 2024 bull run. 🧠💼It's important to acknowledge the inherent risks in futures trading, with the potential for margin calls if risk management is neglected. Always adhere to strict capital management principles and utilize stop-loss orders, ensuring that the initial target offers a risk-to-reward ratio of 2
by itsparham96
A Speed Bump or a Sign of Things to Come?The recent dip in the crypto market, triggered by escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, serves as a stark reminder of the market's volatility. Bitcoin prices plummeted to GETTEX:59K before a swift recovery, leaving many investors wondering: was this a blip on the radar or a harbinger of things to come? **The Iran-Israel Factor:** Geopolitical tensions have historically impacted traditional markets, and crypto appears increasingly susceptible as well. The news of a potential war undoubtedly spooked investors, leading to a sell-off. However, the market's swift bounce back suggests that the long-term outlook might remain bullish. **Bull Run on Hold?** The upcoming Bitcoin halving, scheduled for sometime in 2024, is a highly anticipated event that often precedes bull runs. While the recent crash might cause a temporary setback, historical data suggests that these halvings often lead to price increases due to a reduced supply of new Bitcoins. **Full-Fledged War? A Bearish Threat?** A full-blown war would undoubtedly have a significant negative impact on global markets, including crypto. Increased risk aversion and economic uncertainty could trigger a prolonged bear market. It's important to monitor the situation closely and adjust your strategy accordingly. **The Power of Diversification:** Regardless of the bull or bear market predictions, diversification remains a crucial strategy. Spreading your investments across various cryptocurrencies and asset classes can help mitigate risk. **The Final Word: It's All Speculation** The future of the crypto market, especially in light of geopolitical events, is inherently uncertain. While a bull run is still possible after the halving, external factors can always play a role. Here's where **you** come in! Join the discussion in the comments below!** Share your thoughts: * Do you think the recent crash is a sign of a larger correction? * How will a potential full-fledged war impact the crypto market? * What strategies are you using to navigate the current market climate? **By fostering a community of informed investors, we can all navigate the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency.** **Disclaimer:** This is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
by OMGiTzREALHASSAN
2
Why both Gold & U.S. Dollar Index are rising ? (IMPORTANT)The Intricate Dance of Gold and the U.S. Dollar The relationship between the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and Gold prices is a fascinating study in economics. Typically, these two have a reverse correlation. The reason for this inverse relationship is that gold is priced in U.S. dollars. Therefore, when the dollar strengthens, gold becomes more expensive for investors using other currencies. This can decrease demand for gold and subsequently lower its price. However, this correlation is not set in stone. There are times when both the DXY and gold prices can increase simultaneously. This can occur due to a variety of factors such as geopolitical tensions, market uncertainty, or changes in monetary policy. For instance, from early 2022 to the beginning of 2024, the correlation between gold and the DXY has seen periods of both synchronicity and divergence. This indicates that other factors are influencing gold prices. Currently, despite the rising DXY, gold prices are also on an upward trend. This could be attributed to investors seeking safe-haven assets amidst economic or geopolitical uncertainty. This increases the demand for gold, driving up its price even as the dollar strengthens. Additionally, expectations of changes in monetary policy, such as interest rate cuts, can also affect gold prices. In conclusion, while the DXY and gold prices often move in opposite directions, there are times when they dance to the same tune. This intricate dance is influenced by a myriad of factors, making the relationship between the DXY and gold prices a complex and intriguing aspect of global economics. Prepared by : Arman Shaban
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by ArmanShabanTrading
7