UEFA Euro 2024. Italian National Team Fan Token ( ITA )Group B: Spain, Croatia, Italy, Albania,
Germany will host EURO 2024, having been chosen to stage the 17th edition of the UEFA European Championship.
The UEFA EURO 2024 final tournament is scheduled to take place from 14 June to 14 July 2024.
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ITALY
ITALY PREPARING FOR NEXT LEG TO THE BULL MARKETThe Italy 40 index, or the FTSE MIB, is considered the benchmark for the national Italian stock exchange, the Borsa Italiana. The index consists of the 40 most capitalized and liquid stocks that are listed on the Borsa Italiana.
The IT40 now seems to have begun rising in what is expected to be the wave iii of 3 for the index. This particular wave is expected to take the index towards the 40K mark from the current 29k mark(a hefty 40% move).
The index of the European country is one more global index to be added to list of several others on the move in a bull market that can go on for several more years to come(of course with regular corrections and pauses on the way).
Note*- This chart is for educational purpose only
Italy - 3rd Largest Economy in the EUItaly 40 Index - CAPITALCOM:IT40
Made up of 40 of the largest companies in the Italian equity market the Borsa Italiana , the IT40 gives us an idea of how the 3rd largest economy in Europe is performing.
The Chart
- 22 month cycles
- 22 months increasing and then decreasing
- Based on the pattern we are reaching the end of a 22 month period where price is typically up to 30% lower from current level.
- A bearish engulfing monthly candle appears to be forming here. If we close this month with a bearish engulfing candle, history would suggest significant down side will follow.
- We have not lost the 10 month moving average yet which typically offers confirmation of further decline.
Past patterns are no guarantee of a continuation of future patterns however we can watch out for the continuation.
Confirmation signals of significant downside which would be;
- Bearish Engulfing Monthly Candle (end of Aug)
- Losing the 10 month moving average
- In the event of same decline time window once in motion would be Aug - Nov 2023 (based on pattern)
Lets see what happens.
PUKA
ITALIAN ECONOMY AS REQUESTED BY A VIP SUBThe decrease in consumer price inflation in Italy could potentially have a positive impact on the country's economy, as it may help alleviate some of the pressures on households and businesses caused by high inflation. However, the impact on the overall economy may be limited, as inflation is only one of many factors affecting economic growth.
The performance of the Italian stock market, as reflected by the FTSE MIB index, is likely to be influenced by a range of factors beyond inflation, including global economic conditions, corporate earnings, and investor sentiment. The recent losses experienced by the banking sector could be a concern for the economy, as banks play a critical role in providing credit to businesses and households.
In terms of the euro currency, the projected decline in HICP inflation in 2023 and beyond could potentially be viewed as a positive development by investors, as it may alleviate some of the concerns about inflation and reduce the likelihood of tighter monetary policy from the European Central Bank. However, the euro's performance will also be influenced by a range of other factors, including global economic conditions, political developments, and the outlook for monetary policy in other major economies.
It's been an exciting week for the Italian economy as stocks continue to rise further. The European Commission's Winter Interim Forecast has lifted the growth outlook for this year to 0.8% in the EU and 0.9% in the euro area, which is great news for those invested in the region. Additionally, the decrease of inflation target in Europe in 2023 is expected to provide even more upward momentum for the economy. While the recent positivity has brought the Italian stocks up to a key resistance zone at 28,000, some experts are cautioning that it looks overbought in the short-term. However, there could be a big appreciation on the horizon, making now an excellent time to consider investing in the Italian and euro economy after we get the pullback to level out price action.
Buy BT/Bund Spread wideningAfter Equity Option expiry today and into Month end, the technical rally induced by January effect could be fading.
Commodities recent spike (on China reopening/inflationary) will certainly have an knock on seasonal effect in next Inflation data,
Technically speaking BTP/Bund spread has done a double bottom, and we could expect a bounce from here (Italy widening i.e. BTP selling off more than Bund)
Italy40 Bear trendItaly soared today based on mere positive unemployment data regarding Spain (due to the countries having more or less same situation/economical foundation).
But these data does not have anything to do with Italy.
As the ADX shows, the Italian index goes up today but without an indication of a strong trend. This could show us, that the index will go down again.
If the Italian index will go down tomorrow, this week or the coming week is not important, IT WILL GO DOWN - ITS THAT SIMPLE.
The Italian economy simply can't handle the increasing interest rates from ECB + the situation regarding inflation.
An economy based on tourism will suffer when all the tourists have to save on travels and use that money on electricity bills instead.
Again... IT WILL GO DOWN - ITS THAT SIMPLE.
Euro unable to hold onto ECB gainsThe euro has reversed directions today and fallen below the 1.02 line. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0188, down 0.42%.
The markets were glued to the ECB meeting on Thursday, uncertain as to whether the rate lift-off would be a 25bp or 50bp hike. In the end, Lagarde & Co. went hawkish, delivering a 50bp increase. This was somewhat of a surprise, as the ECB has become more aggressive with obvious reluctance, prodded by soaring inflation which Lagarde previously dismissed as transient. The Bank had provided prior guidance of a 25bp move at the meeting, but in the end, opted for a larger hike.
With the 50bp increase, we bid goodbye to the ECB's negative rates, which have been a hallmark of its accommodative monetary policy. The Bank did not stick to its forward guidance and after the meeting, Lagarde announced that policy decisions would be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, effectively ending forward guidance. What is fairly certain is that more hikes are on the way in the coming months, with the next meeting on September 8th.
Predictably, the euro gained ground after the ECB meeting as investors were pleased with the move. However, the gains quickly dissipated. There are plenty of dark clouds hovering above the eurozone, the most important being the Nord Stream pipeline and the political crisis in Italy. Russia renewed gas supplies through Nord Stream yesterday, as scheduled, but only at around 30-40% capacity, similar levels before the pipeline closed for maintenance. There is certainly relief that gas is again flowing through Nord Stream, but it is tempered by fears that Moscow will not hesitate to play hardball with the EU and weaponise energy exports. With winter only a few months away and no end in sight to the war in Ukraine, the potential energy crisis facing Western Europe is not going anywhere.
Italy, the number three economy in the eurozone, has been plunged into a political crisis as Prime Minister Draghi has resigned. An election is scheduled for the end of September, but in the meantime, Italy cannot pass the 2023 budget or access billions of euros from the EU's Covid-19 fund. The political instability will only exacerbate investors' concerns about the eurozone and is weighing on the euro.
EUR/USD continues to test support at 1.0197. The next support level is 1.0075
There is resistance at 1.0307 and 1.0429
Italy FTSE MIB index analysis: Draghi out, worst yet to come? Ten years after rescuing the euro with the iconic "Whatever it takes", Mario Draghi resigns as Italian Prime Minister, as the political parties that formed his majority no longer backed him.
The uncertainty surrounding the upcoming general election reigns supreme, and the political crisis in Italy risks putting further downward pressure on the Italian FTSE MIB ( IT40 ) index due to widening yield spread between Italian (BTP) and German Bunds.
The BTP-Bund spread, measured as yield difference between IT10Y and DE10Y is now at 2.34 percent (or 234 basis points). Historically, the FTSE MIB index has had a strong and inverse link with the yield spread between Italy and Germany. The FTSE MIB index saw increased volatility as a result of BTP-Bund spread spikes, since they reflect a gauge of credit conditions and country risk in Italy.
Draghi's departure along with the announcement of early elections with populist parties on the rise, could now push the BTP-Bund spread above 300 basis points, a level that has previously raised warning bells and resulted in significant sell-off in the FTSE MIB index.
Technically, the major trend remains bearish, and the 14-day RSI has been trading below the 50 level for the previous month and a half. However, the momentum indicator is not showing oversold conditions.
If the BTP-Bund spread increases beyond 300 basis points, a level that has previously raised concerns in Italy, the FTSE MIB might suffer a more serious selloff in the coming weeks, possibly breaking below the 20.000 mark.
ITALY COVID-19: The next wave is already here... Ok.. so according to this model, Italy is going to join in the ranks of the next wave, by December 2021 it should be very clear, and into 2022 it will be in the news.
OIL to 56usd or heading back to 100usd ?After continuous growth, oil does not stop here.
According to speculation, it will exceed 100 USD per barrel by the end of 2021.
As of 7/19/21, oil has suffered a slight depreciation, it is still possible to reach up to 56USD or re-enter the road to 100.
*** It is not a trading idea, only for informational purposes ***
Double Bottom and Head & Shoulders?Double Bottom or Head & Shoulders both of them confirm Gold is going up , I believe in this analysis prediction.
If you like my ideas or take the same trade like me, please write it in comment so we can manage the trade together.
Please Like and Follow.
Thank you for your support
Good chance of STRONG breakoutHello all, today I would like to share this analysis about the FTSE MIB index. A like would be appreciated; now, let me describe my strategy.
1. The horizontal line at the bottom seems to form a good support: it was touched several times in the last 20 years, but it hasn't been surpassed by any bar. Unfortunately, the "First resistance" line kept the index low for approximately 13 years.
2. This index shows a ciclic pattern: every 1300 days it goes from the bottom to the first resistance: it happened for 3 times.
3. Nowadays, we are again on the first resistance line: if there will be a breakout of it, the "Second resistance" will be reached in few bars: it's a potential +20% for the index.
4. Then, as we can see from the left of the graph, a green DOJI pattern could indicate a weakness of the "Second resistance" line. However, in my opinion there will be a pullback to the low price of the DOJI.
5. This won't stop the growth of the index, which will gain another 15% in the next bars.
The growth will slow down around 36700 points, as the historical channel of the index is 12300 points: today the index is at 24500 points and could gain the amount of the channel in the next future.
My target is 24500 + 12300 = 36700 LONG.
In my opinion, the ciclic aspect of this index will keep going on, so we will see this huge bounce up in the next 960 days (1300 days - 340 days).
Keep trading guys!!!!
EURAUD: Draghi as Italy's PM? Speculative longs in playHello,
in the coming days the market will probably focus on Draghi and his possible PM position in Italy.
Theoretically, it has a chance to be positively received by the market (at least in the short term).
The single currency vs the Australian has a chance to return towards 1.60 and above.
Long on pullback to the region of 1.5650
Stop below 1.5575
Target 1: 1.6010
Target2: 1.6160
Target3: 1.6400
Good luck
Western European COVID-19 forces a close(er) ChristmasA quick screen of the COVD-19 situation in the Western European countries of Great Britain, France, Germany and Italy shows that all have had a spike in recent months.
The MACD histograms actually decipher the rate of acceleration of the spike in cases.
Hence, the MACD histograms really need to go below zero to get a deceleration in the number of COVID-19 cases.
From here, we can see...
Great Britain is moderating it’s spike.
France is slowing down the spike somewhat, nonetheless still increasing, albeit at a moderated pace.
Germany is still in acceleration phase of their Wave 2, and it would may be months before it decelerates.
Italy, like GB , is moderating slightly.
So much for Christmas... it would be one that returns everyone to basic nuclear family, where Christmas is less consumer driven, and more family orientated. While we know the deteriorating conditions, we pray that families get closer and bond better through this period.
God bless... Merry Christmas, Joyeux Noel.
Stay safe, stay healthy.