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ridethepig | Eurobonds Positional PlayThe latest news from Germany and France " federalisation of the debt " - a prerequisite for survival of the euro. The trigger for Alexander Hamilton in 1790 was Britain, for Angela Merkel its Coronavirus. So we are gradually getting round to what is an important component in the process of formation in the currency. Like a trojan horse, Eurobonds are being pushed in from the mounting political and geopolitical pressure. The initial 500bn EUR will still require approval from the block, and may not be a huge sum considering a historic crash, however it is an incremental step in a positive direction. It is not really about the effectiveness of the implementation, and this is decided from completely different factors and distribution is not that clear. The isolated highs in USD which we have been tracking illustrates the future direction for the greenback : After the latest news I am switch sides in the short-term bearish view, rather starting to track the breakout to the topside. A move through 1.10xx highs will unlock the topside and put scaffolding around the short-term bullish view. The MT and LT outlook could see us grind all the way back towards 1.20xx in a relatively short period of time. I am certain that in a few years, nobody will consider surrendering their euros for dollars. The disappearance of dollar dominance will open the way for a new and brilliant development of Europe and - the east. Let me say a few more words about the birth of the view; it is closely linked to the collapse of Globalisation... Vaccine optimism is flooding the wires, the dedication of politicians to sell the re-openings is very telling of the extent of damage that has been done. All rainbows and empty promises from the consultations I've had with experts in the field. The following chart shows how devastating the economic damage has been on the US labour market, Equities rallying all the way back in such a short period of time in a V shaped bounce is not an accurate reflection of reality:
Long
by ridethepig
18
#IT10Y - #ECB is BANKRUPT Part 3 #Italy #EURUSD @lagarde @ecbIn the short term, the ECB can still fight against the capital flight from Italy government bonds, but it is powerless against the capital flight out of the euro. The ECB's new bazooka won't help, Mrs Lagarde. As you can see in the chart, if 3,00 and later 3,85 falls, everything is done and dusted - the trader world will see that too. Look at RSI on monthly base!!! Best regards from Hannover (Lower Saxony) Stefan Bode #IT10Y - #ECB is BANKRUPT Part 3 #Italy #EURUSD @lagarde @ecb
TVC:IT10YLong
by StefanBode
30 Days Later – Italy vs. USAs the Coronavirus continues to spread throughout the globe without any cure or treatment, researchers have been left with nothing but data to help predict and counter the disease. This being a novel virus, even our data sets are tremendously lacking. We must make do with what we have, and 4 months into this global pandemic it seems that Italy has been taking the blunt of this disease; Creating a benchmark for other countries to compare. There are numerous articles out there comparing the United States to Italy, many of which only compare the total number of cases. Based on that factor alone, the US is in far worse shape than Italy being approximately 8 days behind on the outbreak. At the time of writing this article, Italy is at 110,574 cases while the US is nearly doubled at 209,071 cases of the COVID-19 virus. Comparing the two countries should not end at the total number of cases. There are far more ways to analyze the available data to see how the United States and other countries compare using Italy as a precedent. Population Factors One of the largest factors to consider are the two counties populations. Italy’s population is ~60.5 million people while the United states is over 5 times the size at about ~330 million. Right there you can see that comparing the two countries based on the number of cases is not enough. The case comparison above shows the total percentage of the country’s population affected by the coronavirus. Offsetting Italy by 8 days, you will see that the United States is fairing much better when it comes to the total percentage of the population affected. Using Italy as a precedent, Day 33 of the outbreak Italy was at 0.123% of their total population infected, while the United States was at 0.074%. Today Italy is at 0.19%. Transmission Rate Based on the total percentage of the population, the data shows that Italy is in far worse shape than the United States. However, this could change at any time based on how quickly the disease is spreading throughout each country and how each country manages the spread. The Transmission Rate is generated by the number of new cases each day compared to the day before. Looking at transmission rate data above, you can see that the United States has been greatly higher than Italy over the last two weeks. Though the US transmission rate seems to be dropping a considerable rate, it is still at 14.1% compared to Italy’s 4.2% which seems to be leveling off. Getting this factor as low as possible will be key to controlling the spread around the globe. Breaking the data down, the chart below shows the number of new COVID-19 cases, recoveries, and deaths per day between Italy and the United States. Looking at this data we can determine that Italy’s number of new cases seems to be dropping each day from their peak on March 22. This shows that the measures the country is taking to battle the Coronavirus could be working. IF the United States similar measures as Italy, they should start to see a decline in the number of transmissions per day. “Flattening the curve” to say. Mortality Rate One of the scariest data sets to compare is the COVID-19’s mortality rate. Currently the United States has a 2.55% mortality rate which is well below the global average of 5.23%. These factors are based on confirmed cases and deaths. Italy, however, is at a whopping 12.25% mortality rate. Meaning more than 1 out of 10 people who contract the disease is expected to die. The most chilling thing about this is that all three averages have been increasing each day. Clearly after seeing these values we can see that the United States is fairing off much better than Italy for the time being. Knowing this, there are three major factors to consider: This data is based on ‘Confirmed’ cases and deaths. Meaning there could be numerous positive COVID-19 cases that have not been tested. Italy’s median age is significantly higher than the United States. Unfortunately, this disease is known to target older, immuno-compromised adults. The United States is 8 days behind Italy, meaning only a small percentage of the current Covid-19 cases have had time to mature enough to result in an outcome. Therefore it is possible to see a sudden increase in this value. Recovery Rate This data is petrifying, however, there is some light at the end of the tunnel. Recovery rates around the world are on the rise. Currently it is estimated to take 2-3 weeks to recover from this disease, meaning the current data available is only a small reflection of what has yet to come. The chart below shows both Italy and the United States’ recovery rates as of today. Italy being 8 days ahead of the US, has a significantly higher recovery rate. Within the coming months I expect both values to increase greatly, better reflecting true recovery rate of COVID-19. I would like to thank TradingView for making the COVID-19 data available on their platform. This has allowed script writers like myself to break the data down, analyze, and share information through this global pandemic. During this global pandemic, there is limited information available on the COVID-19 disease itself. However one thing we do have is data; and we get more of this every day. The indicator referenced in this article will be made available to the public so that you can tract this data in real time. You will find it under the scripts tab on my profile page. *Case comparison is based on the previous days data.
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by oh92
12
Coronavirus Regional Long/Short Japan (EWJ) outperforms as Coronavirus cases are low (due to low testing), but country now on the verge of a massive virus outbreak, in line w/ EU & US. Italy (EWI) lags DM, seen as new epicenter of Coronavirus. Country on lockdown, virus priced in (relative to Japan). Italy also has sov debt & banking crisis overhang- but Japan also has massive sov debt & banking crisis, just not as widely publicized. Banking/debt crisis aside, strictly from coming Coronavirus data reaction, RELATIVE pair trade: Short EWJ (Japan) / Long EWI (Italy) ETFs are FX hedged to mitigate some of USD vol interference.
AMEX:SPYShort
by acrossthespread
SPX to 2300 before major bounceThanks for viewing, I am of the view that the major injection of liquidity will cause a short-term minor bounce and then downward again. There are major issues with consumers withholding spending, goods can't be made, can't be shipped, and people won't buy them. Liquidity can only minimise the second-order effects of that (delay or defend against bankruptcies). No demand, no supply, but record levels of liquidity. If you think the worst is over and Munchkin can solve the issue by printing extreme amounts of currency and making a couple of TV appearances, then you should buy. If you believe Jim Cramer, you should buy. If you see how these steps are going to compare to a stream of the ever-worsening news of (I am very sorry to say) an unfolding human crisis then you might see further downside as more than likely. A little tid-bit of the heartbreak presently; - There is a video of an Italian newspaper that has 7 times the amount of space devoted to obituaries as compared to a few weeks ago, - Lombardy (a very wealthy region in a developed nation) is not treating suspected COVID-19 patients over 65 anymore (or patients under 65 that have pre-existing conditions), no assessment, no treatment, and no one attends when they flat-line (no "code blue" crash carts like in the TV soaps), - Italian Doctors have stated concerns about whether Italy can maintain the functions of a nation state (their concerns don't stop at the hospital door). Ok, that got a bit dark - but its all true (and music to the ears of Preppers) - how do you think markets will react now that COVID-19 has established a firm foot-hold in the contiguous United States? The average doubling time of cases is 3-6 days so far. I'm scared of how it's going to go and I don't even live there. What is going to happen to Boeing stocks when Seattle and then Washington State calls in the National Guard to enforce quarantines? Look I am not wanting any of this to happen and I am certainly not taking any joy from any of it. Actually, I hope I am completely wrong about all of it. I may be trading on a break below wave 3 (red line) if I can bring myself to profit from disaster. Be more like Taiwan (which is a real country - it is not "Taipei and Environs") who ON THE SAME DAY as China announced cases of a new pneumonia to the WHO started assessing passengers inbound from Wuhan. Some countries still aren't doing that. Expect a little more from your elected officials - because their inaction, delays, and incompetence will cost everyday people. Ok, thats more than enough from me.
TVC:SPXShort
by flyinkiwi10
Beating continues, what to do with euro, yen & poundYesterday was largely typical of the current week: investors continued exodus from risky assets and increased positions in safe-haven assets. Perhaps the main result of the day can be considered the return of the yen to the fold of safe-haven assets. Recall that last week, after the devastating data on Japan's GDP, there was talk that the yen could no longer be a full-fledged refuge. But, judging by its growth yesterday, it’s quite possible for itself. True, such a strong growth of the yen raises questions, but are its buyers too carried away? In the end, no one canceled the failed GDP data, as did the fact that the country was one step away from the recession. So today we are inclined to look for points for purchases of a pair of USDJPY. Meanwhile, a survey of European companies operating in China showed that 577 out of 577 respondents surveyed expect their performance to worsen due to the epidemic and the downtime of the Chinese economy. The results, although obvious, are no less indicative of this. The epidemic continues to expand around the world (the number of new cases in the world steadily exceeded the number of new cases of infection in China) and the point is not even the increase in the number of new cases, but the fact that an increasing number of countries are taking certain preventive measures, including restricting travel, school closures, etc. All this, ultimately, will lead to an increase in the scale of economic losses. Well, the list of companies that have publicly announced the deterioration of their financial results in the future has been replenished with such titans as Microsoft, Anheuser-Busch InBev, etc. Actually, as we predicted in our previous reviews. Investors, meanwhile, are urgently reviewing their expectations regarding the actions of the Central Banks. In particular, 90% of traders expect a Fed rate cut in April. So yesterday's dollar difficulties in the foreign exchange market are generally understandable. Nevertheless, the growth of the euro against the dollar seems very abnormal to us and we are inclined to sell a pair of EURUSD today in double, if not triple volumes. Recall that the Eurozone economy continues to experience serious difficulties, and this is still without the consequences of a coronavirus. The situation in Italy also does not contribute to the purchase of the euro. Therefore, we sell the euro against the dollar at full capacity. As for the general list of our positions for today, it is generally unchanged: we are looking for points for buying gold (but we are careful - we buy on the slopes with mandatory stops), we sell oil, we sell EURUSD, we buy GBPUSD. The only sales of USDJPY today we are replacing with the purchase of a pair with small stops.
by Trade24Fx
Epidemic is fading & expanding, the Germany recessionThe basic news background is still unchanged: the number of new cases in China is decreasing (+/-500 per day), that is, the epidemic is decreasing. But this is offset by an increase in the number of cases outside of China. And an epidemic from local is increasingly striving to become global. Lockdown in Northern Italy, panic in Iran, growth in the number of cases in South Korea (already under 1000), lower forecasts for financial results from leading companies - all this puts pressure on risky assets, the outcome of which continues. Experts continue to voice new estimates of the damage caused by the epidemic to the global economy. For example, at Oxford Economics Ltd. voiced a specific damage figure: minus $1 trillion of global GDP. Recall that the damage includes direct losses from the downtime of the Chinese economy, losses in tourism and entertainment, as well as in the destruction of global supply chains, a decrease in global trade and investment. At the same time, news about the development of an effective vaccine (the release is scheduled for April), as well as about the desire to allocate about $ 2.5 billion to the Trump administration to fight the epidemic and develop a vaccine, helped to temporarily defuse the situation, which made it possible yesterday to buy gold at great prices. In general, the tactics of buying gold on the slopes proved to be quite effective. So today we will continue to use it, especially since yesterday gave clear price guidelines - where the price might go. Macroeconomic statistics naturally continue to remain in the shadow of news about the epidemic. Nevertheless, we continue to monitor the state of the global economy. Germany reported yesterday on GDP growth rates in the fourth quarter of 2019. Growth turns up zero. Thus, the recession in the leading Eurozone economy was delayed for 3 months. But it looks almost inevitable. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, pretty upset buyers in the oil market. The point is that OPEC+ was never able to agree on anything. Against the background of expectations of a decrease in oil demand in the world, the news looks like a bearish signal. Recall that we recommend looking for points for oil sales - the fundamental background is so far extremely negative. Well, do not forget to sell euros on growth, as, for example, this could be done yesterday. The economic situation in the Eurozone looks extremely unsightly, and the visit of the coronavirus to Italy (over 200 patients) makes the sale of the euro, in our opinion, an almost risk-free transaction. Our basic positions today are unchanged: we are looking for points for buying gold (but we are careful - we buy on the slopes with mandatory stops), we sell oil, we sell EURUSD, we buy GBPUSD, we sell USDJPY with small stops.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
2