BTPs at Key Resistance Italian politicians are attempting to calm the markets.
Today this seems to be working, and driving risk-on.
Eyes on the key levels.
ITALY
EURUSD HEAD AND SHOULDERS FORMATION + GAP CLOSEItaly is pushing Euro down, today we can see euro oversold in Weekly chart, but it can be only a "breath" , if it goes up can make Head and shoulders pattern, its close of a trendline that came from monthly chart since 2008.
We can see one gap open and it must be filled, i'm looking for short in EURUSD, but after one more up movement.
BTP - Bearish Bias ContinuesAfter another negative close, stops can be trailed to 93.00 looking for 90.00 as a first target.
Keep an eye on the Italian political agenda and on risk aversion which seems to be creeping in.
BTP - Bearish Momentum Back in PlayYesterday we expected the Italian 10yr to break back through recent supports, after Conte's initial proposals on immigration, taxes, welfare seem to imply a decisive clash with Brussels. These measures would be good for the population, but EU will not allow them.
Further downside is expected and 90.00 is the first target.
BTPs - Downside Open for BusinessThe Italian Government has started it's fight against Brussels.
BTPs are responding and we may see further downside today.
Italian 10Yr - Supports being PressuredConte's League/MS5 Government would win a vote of confidence today.
A clash with Brussels is only a matter of time. Markets a little nervous.
A breach of key supports would open up the downside again.
Italian 10YR - Bias still short but 11th hour talks slow descentAccording to reports in Italian media, parties across the political spectrum are trying to reach a deal to avoid snap elections.
This has calmed markets for the time being, but price action is telling us this is just temporary.
10YR BTP - Strong Downwards BiasBig moves and volatility expansion in Italian BTPs on the recent political turmoil.
Bias remains down in the short term AND in the longer term.
EURJPY Biased ShortJust like our EurUsd Idea, EurJpy may remain under pressure due to the political issues in Europe, alongside the already evident risk-off sentiment seen in Asia trade.
EURUSD Biased ShortA combination of political issues in Italy & Spain could keep the lid on the Euro & it's crosses.
Keep in mind yesterday's action was dominated by low-liquidity with UK & US away.
Should be interesting.
EURUSD - 1.1800 Keeps Bearish Bias IntactAs EU traders come back to their desks today it will be interesting to see what happens to the Euro.
We bounced the first support zone 1700/20 yesterday and 1.1800 has acted as resistance.
We need more information before making any further decisions.
There is also the feeling that Italian political concerns are overdone.
This all feels a bit premature - patience is needed.
Italian election, 5 star movement breaks establishment grip. The 5 star movement is emerging as the largest party from the Italian election. The party’s direction is anti-establishment and anti-EU, which could spell further trouble for the EUR/USD.
Looking for resistance of 1.2350 hold, with the downward move a higher probability.
Short ItalySeems like there is a general market turnaround. Along with this ECB is slowing down the bond buying and Italy has an upcoming election which could be won by the 5 star movement. Tecnically it looks like it is about to turn and in a resistance area
More Italian Bank problems? UniCredit SpA and Intesa Sanpaolo SpA could face combined losses of almost 20 million euros from the failure of Innowatio.
EUFN: European financials are in danger hereI think we can get a retracement in the financial sector, and Europe is in worse shape than the US in general. It wouldn't surprise me to have some negative news pop out, surrounding Italy's referendum, Deutsche Bank, Italian Banks, UK banks, Brexit, etc. Quite a few potential catalysts for volatility, so, if we see this ETF break the linear regression channel support, we will probably see a rapid selloff.
Keep your eyes open, it might be safer to stand aside, and book succesful long trades, or maybe even take a couple strategic shorts.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
EUR/USDWith a significant fall on the market open of almost 100 pips of the Euro and a significant retrace of 200 plus pips to the upside, EU has reached supply zone with market exhaustion. S/L of 18 pips above Supply zone, I believe this is a strong area to short.
Italian referendum - News breakdownIn this chart I show you the key events and times of occurrence ahead of the news today.
The US futures market will probably open with a gap due to opening after the polls come out, but there will be plenty of time to await the official results, so, the market might remain volatile and directionless before the results are out.
I'd reccomend you keep risk small if trading into this event, either keeping positions small, or using very wide stops, since any gap through your stop could prove to be disastrous if levered, like has happened in the past, too many times this year...(think GBP flash crash, 'The Trumpening', Brexit...).
I think we'll see a risk off rally, but I'm not entirely sure US equities will be impacted negatively (despite what many people think).
Good luck today,
Ivan Labrie.
Retouching the bottom of the channelI'm already skeptical of the EUR, but regardless of the news today. It has already retouched the resistance at 121.320 and came back down, so I expect it to near the bottom of the channel, before heading back up.
Bullish Flag forming after some consolidationBullish on the GBP for a bit longer. Fundamentals are good for it to get near to pre-brexit levels. An Italexit would only help push the GBP further. Meanwhile everyone is pretty bearish on Yen.
So I'd expect this to keep doing what its doing, consolidate for a bit to retouch the 40 WMA, then break out of the flag upwards.
FCA GMMA ANALYSIS: POSSIBLE UPTREND WAITING FOR A MA200 REBOUNDGMMA crossover between 6.25-6.50 with strong momentum, with MACD in long position BUT RSI overbought way over 70 so opening a position would have been very risky... despite overbought price reached 6.79 before retracing so there was space for a gain but I thought there was too much risk for me buying with RSI at 74.
A strategy could be waiting for a retracement on MA200 and buy hoping for a rebound that could lead price towards April highs and resistance; take profit between 7.10-7.20 and I would put SL under MA70 at 5.85. RR is 2.29
This is the first time stock closes over MA 200 in over a year, so that could be a good long signal using MA200 as a long/short filter and as a dynamic support.
AUD/USD long position based on Fibo retracement at 78.6 levelBUY: 0,75090
S/L: 0,74330
T/P 1: 0.5 Fibo level
T/P 2: 4h Resistence
T/P 3: Monthly Resistence
ISPM (INTESA SANPAOLO) LONG LONG POSITION
ENTRY POINT: 1° tranche <= 1,970
STOP LOSS <= 1,852
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Long PositionTIPO: LONG
ENTRY POINT: 1° tranche = non più alto di 2,19 euro
2° ENTRY POINT: 2° tranche = 2,100-2,080 euro
STOP LOSS <= 2,034 euro
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