Earn 5 times your risk with ITUBThe algorithm is proposing a trade in ITUB which seems quite interesting. A channel has been formed creating a kind of big flag.
The most probable scenario is a bounce to the upper zone again but be ready for a retest of the lows, so if the channel breaks down you can also profit by shorting with a risk reward of 2.
If the price bounce as expected, the risk reward is 5 so it's amazing in terms of ratios. You need just 1 trade to compensate 5 loses in similar trades.
ITUB
ITUB: Out of the radar stock with great potential.Hello traders and investors! Let’s talk about ITUB here, as we can extract an important lesson from this stock. Maybe it is unfair to say it is an "out of the radar stock", as it is one of the most traded, but since it is not that popular, I'll label it as "out of the radar".
ITUB is an ADR, a Brazilian stock traded in the US (if you don’t know, I’m one of the many Brazilians here in Tradingview). It is important to look for opportunities elsewhere, because it is not only of tech stocks the market is made of!
Brazilian market is performing very well, and it is outperforming the US market. While the SPX is going up only 10% since the beginning of March, IBOV is going up 15% , and what’s more, ITUB is going up almost 40% since our group bought it!
What’s more, if you look at the weekly chart, ITUB is about to trigger a pivot point in the weekly chart, and this means the next target is around the $ 8.97, so it has more 40% to go from here.
Honestly, I believe it’ll reach there, in a few moths, but we must see a pullback in the daily chart first. The original ITUB chart (ITUB4) is having a hard time near the resistance in the daily chart:
But our ITUB already defeated the resistance, so, this is our stop-gain point from now on!
If it drops again to the 21 ema, I think it’ll be just an opportunity to buy, as ITUB has a great potential ahead, but I believe it'll take a few months to hit the $ 8.97 again. Anything around $ 5.70 is another buy for us. If you liked this analysis, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily updates, and support this idea if it helped you!
Thank you very much!
ITUB at good prices - Part 2!Hello Investor,
Everybody who follows the market knows that the financial sector (as the energy too) is suffering a lot this year. We see the XLF underperforming the SPX with a big spread.
So, in Brazil is not different. If you open a chart to compare IFNC (our financial index) to IBOV, you can see a significant spread too. But, in Brazil the banks and the financial sector have more weight to IBOV that the XLF has to SPX. That's why that spread has a huge importance. In our recent history, the financial sector have been crucial to a good Brazilian Market performing.
However, nowadays the banks stock prices is an absurd, especially in USD. Obviously, the banks valuation will be affected by this crisis with tons of defaulters, very low interest rates and specifically in Brazil, we have fintechs revolution that can affect the banks margins at their financial services.
But, we are seeing the same price that we have in 2008, when the financial sector was in the center of the crisis. In Brazil, the big banks have a lot of market share, they are very good regulated and have a strong financial health.
At this price, it is impossible to ignore the positive risk asymmetry and I'll increase my position in ITUB and BBD betting that will one of my big gains of the next year.
Let's see what gonna happen.
Good Investments,
Lucas Bento Sampaio.
THE WEEK AHEAD: 3 POTENTIAL BRAZILIAN ZEBRAS -- ITUB, PBR, EWZEver seen a "Brazilian Zebra"?
Pictured here is an ITUB (35/76) Zero Extrinsic Back Ratio Spread (hence the colorful acronym, "ZEBRA") in the Brazilian financial, ITUB. Since Zebras are high delta directional plays, they're seen as synthetic stock substitutes and can be deployed both on the call side (long), as well as on the put side (short), with the general advantages being their buying power effect relative to being in a one lot, as well as their being defined risk with max loss limited to the debit paid for putting the play on.
Here's how I set these up:
1. Start out by looking at selling a front month at-the-money short call (around the 50 delta).
2. Look at buying two times the number of long calls such that the front month short pays for all the extrinsic in the longs, which should result in a break even that is or near where the underlying is currently trading.
Here, the July 4 short call is paying .45, with the two December longs costing 2.17 each or 4.34 in total. The setup consequently costs a 3.89 debit (4.34 - .45) to put on. Since the long calls are doubled up, one-half 3.89 equals 1.945, so your break even is that amount plus the long call strike at 2.00 or 3.945 versus 4.08, which is where the stock finished on Friday. Put another way, the credit you collect for the 4 short call exceeds all of the extrinsic in the longs by about .13 (4.08 - 3.95 = .13).
From a trade management standpoint, I view these setups in two separate parts: (1) An in the money long call at the 2.00 strike; and (2) A December/July 2/4 long call diagonal.
Assuming favorable movement, I look at taking the long call diagonal off at or near max (here, the width of the spread or 2.00), and then letting the remaining long call "ride," taking it off in profit or, alternatively, selling call against, depending on how it goes. Consequently, the max profit is "undefined," since -- theoretically -- the extra long call can go to infinity. Conversely, I will look to roll the short call out to reduce cost basis further in the event the stock doesn't move or goes down.
Two other candidates for this type of setup: PBR (26/69) and EWZ (36/55) -- both options liquid and at the low end of their 52-week ranges.
In the case of the former, the PBR October/July 5/7 Zebra costs 4.06 to put on with a break even of 7.03 versus 7.06 spot (so you get into a play for 57.5% of what you'd pay to buy and cover a one lot at market); the latter: the EWZ September/July 19/25, 10.97 with a break even of 24.48 versus 24.66 spot and delta of 120.33 (you get into a play for 44.5% of the cost of getting into a one lot at 24.66).
ITUB at good price!!!Dear Investor,
After a very tough week, we saw the Brazilian financial sector suffer intensely. The Banks' stock prices dropped aggressively, mostly the great bank NYSE:ITUB .
On Friday, April 3rd, I started buying the NYSE:ITUB shares by $3.78 each. And I intend to increase the LONG position in any further drops below that price.
It's a extremely solid bank in Brazil, which has delivered very positive results in the worsts crisis that we faced in the past. So, I believe it's a very asymmetric risk to make a LONG position.
Good investments for all.
Best regards,
Lucas Sampaio
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Olá Investidor,
Após mais uma semana difícil para a Bolsa Brasileira, vimos o setor bancário brasileiro sofre intensamente. O preços caíram de maneira agressiva e dentre eles o NYSE:ITUB .
Na sexta-feira 03/04, iniciei as compras no ativo com preço de aquisição em $3,78. E pretendo aumentar a posição em eventuais novas quedas abaixo desse preço.
É banco extremamente sólido no Brasil, que conseguiu apresentar resultados positivos nas piores crises enfretadas. Então, acredito que é um risco bem assimétrico.
Bons investimentos a todos.
Um abraço,
Lucas Sampaio.
ITUB Range playSimple range play on ITUB, RSI Levels following trend, Volume profile POC suggesting a move to the upper resistance to continue the pattern. Aside from playing the range, I will be watching volume at support/resistance for a breakout. If bearish, i will be watching for a support to form around ~6.58. If bullish, volume profile suggests some resistance could occur at ~9.60.
$IBOV al limite en el cierre de la semanaEl índice de la bolsa brasilera cerró esta semana en los 102.900 puntos, estacionándose sobre la linea de tendencia bajista que trae desde hace dos meses. Si bien falló en el primer intento de quebrarla, parece haber conformado un pequeño banderín alcista.
El próximo lunes parece ser decisivo para ver si logra quebrarla. De hacerlo, se habilitaría el objetivo de 106.000 puntos y máximo histórico (objetivo planteado por el Inverse Head And Shoulders formado durante el último mes). En caso de no prosperar y rebotar en el soporte dinámico, iríamos a la zona de 101.000 puntos como primer objetivo.
Por último, el MACD no da señales buenas en el gráfico de 60 minutos pero si lo hace en gráficos de 2, 3 y 4 horas.
A esperar y ver cómo define.
$IBOV semanal, no pinta nada bien...Divergencia bajista clara en el índice de la bolsa brasilera, timeframe semanal (1W). Ya ejecutó una corrección, veremos si es suficiente o si va por más. Hasta no quebrar la línea de tendencia bajista roja (en el chart de 60 min.) no podemos darla por terminada. Lo positivo: apoyó en el retroceso 0.618 y salió, se mantuvo dentro del canal alcista. A esperar.
ITUB4 - Aguarde confirmação de fundo/níveis de interesse.Boa noite senhores,
Itub4 vem em viés baixista desde o topo nos 39.79 e acredito que possamos estar chegando em um bom nível de reversão.
Olhando no gráfico diário (esquerda) vejam que a última onda de venda teve um volume geral MAIOR que a anterior porém MENOR progresso e formamos "quase" que um fundo duplo nos 32 reais.
Nós temos uma leve divergência bullish no IFR entretanto eu teria cautela com esta pois não chegou a entrar no nível de sobrevenda.
No gráfico de HORA (direita) temos uma LTA confirmada por 3 toques entretanto tenho pé atrás a esse movimento devido ao baixo volume apresentado e que o OBV e wave indicator confirmam.
Dito isso o que eu aguardo?
Salvo apareçam ótimos fundamentais para o papel sejam internos ou do governo eu aguardaria um possível reteste dos níveis inferiores e em caso de rejeição dos mesmos buscar oportunidades de alta para o ativo.
Níveis de interesse de suporte são R$32.00 que foi testado recentemente ou em caso de falha eu manteria olho aberto no nível 31.50 onde temos por perto a média móvel simples 200 do gráfico diário, importantíssima.
Para o viés altista a primeira resistência que será encontrada é R$ 34.75 como podemos verificar no gráfico diário diversas vezes testada como resistência E suporte.
Bons trades.
Essa análise não é recomendação de compra/venda de qualquer ativo e tem aspecto meramente educacional/opinativo.