Russell 2000 Index
RUT Russell 2000 same level as December 2020The Russell 2000 index lost all its gains from 2021 and is now at the pick of December 2020.
I expect 2022 to be the year of this index, that has a lot of undervalued gems, like 2021 was they year of the Big Tech with high multiples.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
RUT Russell 2000 Santa Rally?The Santa Rally is set to start on Monday, Dec. 27.
This period gave positive return for the S&P 500 78.9% of the time.
Since 1950, the average return of the Santa rally was 1.33%.
How do you think this will be reflected in the Russell2000 index?
The reasons could be optimism over the new year ahead or holiday spending.
RUT - IUX NorthUntil we break the L-MLH (yellow) or centerline (grey), this markets path leads north.
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Russel - RUT / IUX confirmation for Markets going north?Amazing how A/R and Forks catch important resistance and support.
It looks like RUT is leading the pack and it is like confirmation for the other important indices.
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NEW TRADE: SOLD RUT/IUX AUG 19 1110/1120/1230/1240 IRON CONDOR... for a $323/contract credit.
This is my standard 85/75 iron condor setup for skewed instruments like SPY, IWM, QQQ, RUT, SPX, etc. (i.e., short call at the 75% probability out of the money strike; short put at the 85% ... or as close as I can get to those).
As usual, will look to take off the entire setup as a unit at 50% max profit.
IUX - RUSSEL 2000 HEADING FOR THE TOP?RUSSEL 2000 seems in an uptrend continuation. Let's see if it goes straight to the top. If the price breaks the rising trendline the trend is completely changed.
SOLD IUX/RUT JULY 29TH 1000/1010/1160/1170 IRON CONDORBecause I have virtually nothing on from having gone almost entirely flat pre-Brexit, I slapped this bugger on in the NY morning session ... . It's basically a "classic" skewed instrument iron condor, with the short call at the 75% probability out-of-the-money strike for the expiry; the short put at the 85%.
Filled for a $325/contract credit ... .
DELTA HEDGE: SOLD RUT/IUX AUG 29TH 1120/1130 SHORT PUT VERTICAL... for a 1.10 ($110) credit.
Here, I'm adding a touch of long delta into an existing RUT position (an iron condor) for which I do not feel comfortable rolling the short put side up further to protect that particular setup from further upside. Additionally, I get the side benefit of just adding a little long delta to my entire portfolio, which (no surprise) is a bit more net delta short than I'd like at the moment with this up move.
Naturally, this creates an imbalance between call side units and put side units in my RUT position. However, I'll keep an eye on the entire RUT positions' net delta and match this put side up with a short call vert in the same expiry should price roll back to the put side and cause my net RUT position to skew delta long.
TRADE IDEA: RUT/IUX AUG 19TH 1060/1070/1200/1210 IRON CONDORI'm not going to take this particular trade (as I've already got a RUT IC on at the moment), but figured I'd post one anyhoo while I wait for earnings.
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: (Software's being glitchy here in off hours; should be between 55 and 65%)
Max Profit: $331/contract (nearly 1/3rd the width of the wings, which is what you're shooting for generally in these)
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $669/contract
Break Evens: 1067/1203
Theta: 5.15
Delta: -2.61
Notes: Naturally, these are off hours quotes, so you may have to fiddle with strikes and fill price at open. Look to take this off at 50% max profit.
RUT - IUX...where it will open today?For our Options Butterfly Traders:
Here we can see the close from yesterday 23.6.16
Watch how price act on the Forks & Action/Reaction lines.
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TRADE IDEA: RUT/IUX 1075/1085/1190/1200 IRON CONDORStaying with short duration index setups here, so that I can be flexible if any non index premium selling opportunities come along; going with RUT over SPX due to RUT's higher implied volatility ... . (As a smaller, alternative trade, you can look at a similar setup in IWM).
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 62%
P50: 71%
Max Profit: $340/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $660
Delta: -3.51/contract
Theta: 12.26/day/contract
Notes: Naturally, I'm looking at pricing in the off hours, so it may be necessary to tweak the setup a bit in terms of strikes and/or fill price on NY open. I'll look to manage this setup aggressively and take it off at 50% max.
RUSSEL - RUT @ Decision PointWith the centerline, there is also a natural resistance from the past (red zone).
A break of this zone would imply a further move, at least up to the U-MLH.
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IUX Russel - Rejection from the TrendBarrierWhat is important on this chart is not the trade!
It is how you can see support and resistance at the lines.
If you know how to use these tools your chance of profit increase dramatically, because all these lines do is follow the law of Action/Reaction - Newtons law.
It's not a holy grale or such. But when something is happening over 80% of time, then we should pay attention to it and think about how we can use this for our trading. And yes, price is going to the centerline (CL.) over 80% of time.
This is only one rule of many, of the A/R freamweork.
I like to trade small, very small, but trade many occurences to increase my chance of making a profit at the end.
That is why i like to sell options very much! Selling options have a built in success of expiring out of the money over 70%!
Now combine this with this fantastic Action/Reaction framework and you have a hell of a great system to make money from the markets.
I have put togheter a very basic Action/Reaction and Fork course where you can attend for free.
Use this for your advantage and take you seat and start to dive in the world of Newtons law of Action/Reaction on this website: mytradingcoach.teachable.com
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ROLLING IUX/RUT APRIL 15TH 1075/1085/1105/1120 IC... to April 15th 1060/1080/1110/1135 iron condor.
The short put side and short call sides were rolled separately: the put side for a .48 credit and the call side for a .59 credit.
Notes: I widened the spreads on both sides here (rolling the short call up and the short put down) to increase the probability that I will be able to exit either one or both sides at or near max profit some time prior to expiration. A word of caution is in order: widening the spread increases the profit potential of the spread, but it also increases max loss. As a general matter, I only use widening as a last resort in rolling where I simply cannot get enough credit from the sale of an oppositional side to offset the roll of the tested side adequately. Here, I'm doing it largely for practical reasons: first, I want to insure that at least one side is not "too close for comfort" such that I have to roll both sides out (i.e., I want to be able to close at least one side for near max profit); second, I may not be able to watch the setup attentively next week to be able to take advantage of a short-term move ... .
SOLD RUT/IUX APRIL 15TH 1075/1085 SHORT PUT VERTICALAfter buying back the short put vertical side of this short duration iron condor yesterday at 50% max, I'm resurrecting the short put side here to hedge against the possibility of further upside in the Russell.
The setup is rather tight, with a scant 20 strikes between my short options, but the model is telling me that the 1075/1085 short put vert has a 70%+ probability of profit for that expiry, so that's what I'm mechanically going with.
Filled for a 1.41 credit ($141/contract).
I'll look to take the entire setup off in profit or the wings one at a time ... .
BOUGHT TO CLOSE IUX/RUT APRIL 15TH 1025/1035 SHORT PUT VERTICALOy. That was quick. Out for 50% max profit. I'll look to add the short put side back in tomorrow ... .
SOLD TO OPEN APRIL 15TH RUT/IUX 1025/1035 SHORT PUT VERTAfter closing the short put wing yesterday for a small profit and rolling the short call wing up and out a week for an additional credit, I'm selling a 1025/1035 short put vertical in the same expiry as the rolled out call wing to complete an April 15th 1025/1035/1105/1120 iron condor.
I'm still playing a little bit with the percentage of max profit to either take the whole setup off or an individual wing off. Ordinarily, I take off the entire setup as a unit at 50% max profit, but I regard these short term setups kind of like scalps, so have been taking them off at lower profit percentages (money, take, run ... ).
Filled for a 1.21 ($121) credit ... .