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IWC

🟥 NEW LOW on IWC - Market Commentary⬇️ IWC NEW LOW The microcap ETF (IWC) has made a new low. This is not good at all. On the good side we did close up on the day - so we can call this a Rally Day and wait for a Follow Through Day (FTD). ↗️ WAITING FOR FTD SPX is sitting on the 200D Moving Average and Nasdaq s on day 6 of its Rally Day (marketd as RD on the chart). We are waiting for those FTDs in order to get into the action on the long side. 😰 FEAR NEEDS TO PICK UP The VIX like I said in my previous note, to print a picture perfect bottoming action, would need to double its low of 16, meaning a shakeout with VIX jumping to 24 would be a positive sign. 👨‍👨‍👧‍👦 SENTIMENT Sentiment is horribly bad - which is so negative it could be showing a market bottom. The chart below shows the % of stocks above the 50D (pane1), 200D (pane2) and the VIX (pane3). Only 32% of the stocks are above 200D which is v. bearish. Why we look at this? Because any real bull market would require participation from more than 7 mega cap stocks in order to be a) strong and b) lasting. Otherwise it is a very thin market - which is not healthy. 🚽 FLUSH POSSIBILTY I am cautious also that because the last couple of days we are seeing dislocations in relationships that are actually correlated *historically*. I am refering to interest, forex, utilities, bonds, commodities and so on. E.g. Oil broke down and the interest rates and the dollar went up. When this has happened historically there are a higher chance of a flush occuring. The probability is stacking but it would be a black swan. For the newbies a flush is a mini-crash. 📅 STAY ALERT REMEMBER We are always 4-5 days away to a new Bull Market. This is the time to keep your eye on the market. Know what the leading RS names are. Also we are about to enter earning season. Be cautious. My strategy is to never go into an earnings event unless I have enough profit to justify the implied volatility.
TVC:VIX
by TintinTrading
US Micro-Cap Breaking Out?Here in this position, it is clear that intensive work has gone into supporting the entire global recovery. Moreover, we could already count the resilience in credit as ideal results from the covid siege. But now I want to focus on the US and small caps in particular are getting to work and the advance is leading to a more palpable exhaustion leg and opening some of the wildest trades for 2022 and beyond. You can see this is not the same position in China or Hong Kong. In the short and immediate term, we are witnessing capital rushing to park in US assets as the ONLY alternative. The pressure to park capital in 'safe assets' which are not threatened by the nanny state in the Far-East, Middle-East, Russia and now to a lesser extent Europe while it remains hijacked via Schwab. This more or less exhausts the options that we have and has clearly pinned both the Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp: Sure the "migration of capital" from East to West is underway but the threat of US losing its hegemony is a multi-decade process. I will be looking to fade the highs in US Microcaps from October time to ride profit taking into Q1 2022 before we start chapter two. Interested to gage the interest levels for ETFs here, if there is enough we can start to establish some levels, calls, and invalidation zones for IWC together in the comments.
AMEX:IWCLong
by ridethepig
1
If Country Indexes Had PersonalitiesThis is always a fun way to view the markets. Today we are going to look at a risk on barometer that may be unknown to most. When Finland is breaking out, we tend to take notice. This is a good indication that money is flowing to risk on assets. If country indexes had personalities, Finland would be on a motorcycle pole vaulting with a hockey stick! All jokes aside, let's hop into the chart. We saw Finland basing for a couple months and now we have a breakout. We have to clear through some of the overhead supply first, but we are not far from all time highs. If we were to see all time highs in Finland, that would surely be bullish right? Here on the weekly chart, we have a bullish cross on the stochastic RSI and a bullish regime on the %SMA oscillator. Don’t fight an uptrend. As far as next major resistance levels, we have some Fibonacci levels that coincide with all time highs from the last two swing high/swing low market structures. This is the “super risk on” environment and would be a blue sky breakout in Finland. These are all signs of good macro market breadth. Rather than looking at the SPY’s all day as an analyst, remember that there are many things you can do to analyze the markets. Happy Trading!
CBOE:EFNLLong
by derzzycharts
10