$AAPL In ConsolidationNASDAQ:AAPL is consolidating here in a wedging pattern. I do not know which way this will resolve. But, since I rarely if ever short, I am looking on the long side of a trade. The thing I like about a consolidation pattern like this is, you know when you are wrong very quickly. My plan is to take a ¼ size long position if / when it moves above the 50 DMA (red) with a stop just below the most recent low (which would also correspond to dropping below the lower wedging trendline.
Then if it can break out over the upper downtrend line, I will look to build out my position. I thought this would be a good one to put on your watchlist. If you like the idea, please make it your own so that it fits within your trading plan.
IWM
Are The Markets Running Out Of Steam? SPY just cant seemed to hold above the 600 psychological level.
Are big players unloading into this positive market strength?
Are we due for a larger pullback?
There's a lot of mixed price action and we just cant seem to make a true breakout.
Some names are underperforming and other names are outperforming.
We remain tactically bullish while trimming keys positions into strength.
Being nimble in this market us key as were seeing large intra day swings.
Short term there is some risk of lower price so we have hedged in some individual names while still remaining bullish.
SPY New All Time Highs IncomingThe #SPY weekly chart is so bullish but don't take my word for it.
Simply look at the weekly bullish crossover that occurred between the 7 week & the 20 Week MA.
The last time this occurred was in Nov 2023 and the markets ripped 19% before having a major 3 week pullback and then another soaring continuation higher.
Bullish Intraday Patterns Everywhere!SPX had a wonderful intraday hourly chart confirmed breakout. This pattern is bullish and likely will continue higher.
The bulls tomorrow would love to confirm the daily chart breakout and will try to push for that.
SPY/SPX is holding more relative strength than the Q's & IWM which is displaying broad participation.
There are many bullish charts showing accumulation, golden crosses and bullish MA crossovers.
The DXY appears to be wanting to break down to around $97.00 which should yield more upside.
We secured profits today on SPY 594 calls & NVDA 144 calls.
We still remain net long and see the S&P 500 over $6000
Apple, XYZ, AI - are bullish setups were continuing to manage.
SUPER CYCLE TOP SOON IGV WAVE 5 The chart posted is by far the strongest chart within the market and has a clean wave structure from an Elliot Wave view . I have now taken a position for the last wave and will exit and go 100 % short all markets once the 5th wave has reached the targets min 106.7 to ideal target is 111 zone this should be seen based on my work in spiral cycle top is due 2.5 TD days from today with the alt on June 6/9 best of trades WAVETIMER
SPY, SPX, IWM, Natural Gas, NVDA, XYZ, AI - Analysis- Markets sold off into the NVDA rally this morning.
- Small afternoon rally turned indices back green
- Major pre market high levels up ahead likely allow us to push higher in coming days.
- NVDA should retest its premarket high levels.
- Profits secured on AI calls!
- Structurally indices are still bullish and remain above key levels.
- Yields see nasty reversal lower and look to be going down.
- Natural Gas trying to lure investors with a bottoming tail - but i think its false hope.
SPX Bullish Patterns Emerging ahead of NVIDIA EarningsThe SP:SPX has taken out some major pivots and recaptured the ever so important daily 200 MA.
across multiple time frames some very interesting bullish patterns are emerging.
All eyes will be in NASDAQ:NVDA earnings tonight after the bell.
If NVIDIA beats and guides it will breakout of an epic bull flag pattern that will likely casue this market to trend to new All time highs.
Probabilities from a technical pattern standpoint are pointing towards higher price action.
We have already broken out and back tested key support levels and the buying is clearly being observed.
We remain net long with positions already in profit.
$DASH Ready to Breakout?NASDAQ:DASH looks like it is getting ready to break out. It is only $11 off, its 52-week high. Recent upgrades increased price targets to $235 and $240.
One could look at the chart pattern and say it is a complex reverse head and shoulders, and today’s bar found support right at the neckline. I have been in this name for about 2 weeks as it recovered the 50 DMA (red). I will be looking to add to my position if it can clearly break above the area of resistance at the horizontal line, around $207.
This is a trade I am already in, and it is my idea. If you like the thought, please make it your trade that fits your trading plan.
$KTOS Looks Ready to Breakout!NASDAQ:KTOS is a small cap stock with the potential for big gains. They are in the Defense and Security sector and could benefit from U.S. military spending. It is also very liquid with over a million shares traded daily.
This stock is sitting near all-time highs here and looks like it is ready to break out. But it could be a double top as well.
I have been in this trade for a few days and added yesterday when it looked to me to reverse the down day. It needs to clear $36.85 - $37.00 to be a clear breakout. Over that level everyone is in the money.
This is my idea and my trade. If you like the idea, please make it your own and honor your trading rules.
$YOU – Wedging with Confluence of MA’s & AVWAPNYSE:YOU is a name I have “thought” could move higher. It is the Clear System at select airports. They continue to expand to other busy airports, and it is an IPO from 2021, so it has had time to squeeze out pure speculation.
To be sure this type of wedging pattern can resolve either way. It is more of a consolidation type pattern. I like the fact that it is above the shorter-term Moving Averages but is stuck just below the All Time High AVWAP and the 50 DMA which also coincides with the upper downtrend line (DTL) of the wedging pattern.
For me to take a trade it either needs to move up through the AVWAP, the 50 DMA and the DTL, in which case I will go long with a stop under the most recent higher low. If it breaks down, I will consider a short trade.
If you like this idea, make it your own and make sure it fits with your trading plan.
$IWM, small caps, not YET giving the "all clear"AMEX:IWM is the lone index still not in the clear 🚩 — backtesting its 200dma today and tagging the weekly mid-BB , just like in '22. Will it matter by week's end? If not, the bull is likely back across the board 🐂
This week's #CPI (Consumer Price Index) and #PPI (Producer Price Index) prints could significantly influence market direction across major indices — AMEX:SPY , NASDAQ:QQQ and AMEX:IWM — especially with rate cut expectations in flux. 🧵Here's how:
1. Hot CPI or PPI (above expectations):
AMEX:SPY : Likely to pull back as sticky inflation pressures broader S&P names, especially rate-sensitive sectors like real estate and utilities.
NASDAQ:QQQ : Could see sharper downside—tech stocks (many of which are high duration assets) are highly sensitive to interest rate expectations.
AMEX:IWM : Likely the hardest hit. Small caps suffer from tighter financial conditions and depend more on domestic borrowing costs.
🟥 Result: Bearish across the board, with small caps underperforming.
2. Cool CPI or PPI (below expectations):
AMEX:SPY : Broad lift, particularly in consumer discretionary and financials.
NASDAQ:QQQ : Strong rally—mega cap tech loves the prospect of lower yields.
AMEX:IWM : Outperforms if cooling inflation suggests easing ahead, since it's more leveraged to rate cycles and domestic growth.
🟩 Result: Bullish, with small caps possibly leading a relief rally.
3. In-line CPI/PPI :
Markets may stay choppy or consolidate, with AMEX:SPY and NASDAQ:QQQ more stable.
AMEX:IWM remains at risk of drifting lower unless there’s a strong dovish narrative from the Fed or other macro catalysts.
With small caps already lagging, this week’s inflation data could either validate its bearish divergence or spark a rotation rally if inflation
AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ TVC:VIX $ES_F $NQ_F $RTY_F TVC:TNX NASDAQ:TLT TVC:DXY #Tariffs #Stocks
$HII Earnings Beat and Breakout ContinuationI have been long this name since April 17th. I held through earnings as it has been a slow but steady gainer.
Revenue did fall about 2% YOY. However, this is a good candidate for the new ship building initiative.
If you like this idea, please make it your own and be sure to follow "your" rules of trading. If you like this idea or any others I publish (and they are not always right) follow me on X where I post more often.
Huntington Ingalls Industries Beat Expectations
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 7:15 AM ET
Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) reported earnings of $3.79 per share on revenue of $2.73 billion for the first quarter ended March 2025. The consensus earnings estimate was $2.90 per share on revenue of $2.79 billion. The Earnings Whisper number was $3.00 per share. The company beat expectations by 26.33% while revenue fell 2.53% compared to the same quarter a year ago.
The company said it continues to expect 2025 revenue of $11.80 billion to $12.20 billion. The current consensus revenue estimate is $11.95 billion for the year ending December 31, 2025.
HII is a global, all-domain defense partner, building and delivering the world’s most powerful, survivable naval ships and technologies that safeguard our seas, sky, land, space and cyber.
$LDOS Earnings Beat and Cup BaseI have been long NYSE:LDOS since March 17th with a ½ size position. I have come close to being stopped out but, my stop never hit. I was up enough that I held through earnings on May 6th. I would expect that it could form a small handle on this cup base, but it may not.
I like the fact that it is above all the Moving Averages. I am not an expert at Fibonacci lines, but it looks like we are right at the .382 retracement area and what is a small resistance area as well. Once through that area, the 50% retrace aligns with another area of resistance. At around $160 – 165 a share.
They were upgraded to Overweight by Wells Fargo with a price target of $200.
If you like this idea, please make it your own so it aligns with your trading / investing plan.
Leidos Beat Expectations
Tuesday, May 6, 2025 at 6:00 AM ET
Leidos (LDOS) reported earnings of $2.97 per share on revenue of $4.25 billion for the first quarter ended March 2025. The consensus earnings estimate was $2.47 per share on revenue of $4.08 billion. The Earnings Whisper number was $2.54 per share. The company beat expectations by 16.93% while revenue grew 6.79% on a year-over-year basis.
The company said it continues to expect 2025 earnings of $10.35 to $10.75 per share on revenue of $16.90 billion to $17.30 billion. The current consensus earnings estimate is $10.51 per share on revenue of $17.09 billion for the year ending December 31, 2025.
Leidos Holdings Inc. is an applied technology company delivering solutions and services that leverage the power of data analytics, systems integration, and cybersecurity across three markets: national security, health, and engineering.
$STZ Get Upgrade and $125 Price TargetNYSE:STZ Has been in a stage one base for about 4 months and is above all the Moving Averages with the fastest on top and slowest on bottom. With the new upgrade can it breakout into a stage 2 uptrend?
I have an alert set at just 188.50, right in the resistance area. I will take the trade if it triggers with a stop just below the most recent low of 182.62. That makes a well-defined risk reward for me.
On the fundamental side, we are moving into summer and beverage sales could easily pick up.
$BA Been Basing About 1 Year – Ready to Break-out?I am already long NYSE:BA since earnings report on April 23 with a full size position. I am looking for this to form a short flat base to allow the 10 (purple) and twenty ema (blue) to catch up. I will be looking to add to my position if that happens and it resumes the uptrend. Since it bottomed out on April 7th it has made about a 45% move. That is why I think my scenario may play out. All TBD.
$RDDT Earnings Beat 30% / Earnings Growth 101.6%I have taken a position in NYSE:RDDT at $120.50 and I will put my stop on a definitive close under the 21 EMA (blue). At the current price that would be about an 8% stop. (Sometimes I take positions off before they hit my stop loss if it is not acting well.)
I am looking for this to retake its prior leadership but it may not. From ATH to lowest low was a 65% drop. It has gained about 26% of that back.
If you like this idea, please make it your own trade that fits with your trading rules.
Reddit Beat Expectations
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 4:06 PM ET
Reddit (RDDT) reported earnings of $0.13 per share on revenue of $392.36 million for the first quarter ended March 2025. The consensus earnings estimate was $0.02 per share on revenue of $373.33 million. The Earnings Whisper number was $0.10 per share. The company beat expectations by 30.00% while revenue grew 61.49% on a year-over-year basis.
The company said it expects second quarter revenue of $410.0 million to $430.0 million. The current consensus revenue estimate is $399.36 million for the quarter ending June 30, 2025.
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MARKETS NOT OVERSOLD CAUTION! UPDATE!This is a monthly chart and TV keeps forcing "Target reached" on my updates. As such i am reposting this chart I first issued back on April 1st, 2025, before our "LIBERATION DAY" FACEPALM!
We are still not oversold on a monthly chart!
WARNING!
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RUSSEL / IWM IDEAovernight bounce off 15m demand im sized im very lightly due to it being an over night trade (I have a high loosing percentage trading Asia Session.) Simple play if volatility can kick in towards London/NY session. No PT if this starts working, I will just let it run until 5m structure is broken.
The Ghost of 1986-1987 Stock Market Overlay onto $IWMThe 1986-1987 stock market advance was 48% as measured by the S&P500 Index SP:SPX from the low in late 1986 which peaked in August 1987 and crashed into October 19th's spectacular 20% decline in one day.
The advance in the Russell 2000 Index from the low in 2023 to the high in 2024 was 51%, topping the 48% gain in the SP:SPX and the meltdown wasn't as spectacular, but it was similar.
There were similar patterns in fears of trade wars, US dollar declines, new tax laws going into effect back then and tax laws sunsetting this time. Those you can go into by reviewing my other charts I have published over the years here.
I stretched the 1987 pattern to fit the low to the high, so it isn't "exactly" the same time day-to-day for this pattern.
I found it interesting because the chart of AMEX:IWM all by itself had the same "look" to me as the 1987 bull market and crash so I decided to put it together for you all here to see.
I would expect a choppy market from here on as people adjust to the new uncertainties. Sellers of this decline will be shy to reinvest anytime soon and buyers are likely afraid to step up and get aggressive with so much uncertainty.
Sentiment as measured by AAII shows an extremely fearful and reluctant investor class, which is typical to see at major market bottoms.
Wishing everyone peace and prosperity!
Tim West
11:17AM EST April 24, 2025
HTZ short idea?NASDAQ:HTZ HTZ is underperformjng the market In a large way today.
With interest rates falling & the IWM rallying to the upside this is a bearish divergence occurring for this ticker.
If HTZ can't rally with the positive conditions it likely means this stock will continue to see some selling pressure.
Understand this is a high risk high flying stock that can have outsized moves.
SPY CRACK! WARNING!We are in the "honey" phase in Stocks.
This is the part where they tell you:
-Don't panic
-Stocks are cheap forward EPS
-Nible on the way down
-Diversified portfolio wins..
-It's a stock picker's market
-There is a lot of cash on the sidelines
-It's just a reset
-It's a correction
-We needed this to shake out the weak hands
-Buy when there is blood in the streets, even if it's yours
-There is a lot of value in...
-This is your last chance to...
-This and that stock are going to $1,000
-Stocks are the best investment over the course of time
The list is endless to get you to buy or stay in and suck up the pain. They will "Future Fuke" you the world.
I will remind you that you cannot buy unless you first sell! No one has endless money, and your 1% addition monthly will not lower your cost basis.
All I can tell you is what this chart shows! A BIG CRACK!
WARNING!!!
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