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IWM

$QTWO Flat base Breakout?Here is another off the radar company that has the potential to double in price over the next year. Today it is peaking out over a most recent flat base. Since the most recent low on Oct 31st, this stock has rallied by over 30% and is hitting a 52-week high today as well. I do not know if it can get back to the all-time high of about $147.00 per share but I do think it can be a solid gainer. I have opened a ¼ size position in this today as it is breaking out. I will place my stop just under today’s low of 36.98 which makes for a good risk reward as a trader. An investor who plans on holding a longer term (a year or more), a stop could be placed under the most recent higher low or maybe the large bar on Dec 1st. Either of those 2 areas would give a lot of breathing room. I, however, like a tighter stop and I am not opposed to getting stopped out and getting back in even at a higher price. Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking. From earningswhispers.com: Q2 Holdings Beat Consensus Estimates Wednesday, November 1, 2023, at 4:30 PM ET Q2 Holdings (QTWO) reported a loss of $0.15 per share on revenue of $154.97 million for the third quarter ended September 2023. The consensus estimate was a loss of $0.17 per share on revenue of $155.44 million. The company beat consensus estimates by 11.76% while revenue grew 7.06% on a year-over-year basis. The company said it expects fourth quarter revenue of $160.3 million to $163.3 million. The current consensus revenue estimate is $161.42 million for the quarter ending December 31, 2023. Q2 Holdings Inc through its subsidiary is engaged in providing secure, cloud-based virtual banking solutions. Its software suite includes integrated modules for online banking, telephone banking, mobile banking, and core account management.
NYSE:QTWOLong
by jaxdog
$RAMP with a PEG Consolidation.NYSE:RAMP may well ramp up here. They had nice earnings beat with a Power Earnings Gap (PEG) and now some nice consolidation. I have placed an alert just over yesterday’s high. Should it trigger, I will look to a lower timeframe for a good risk reward entry. I like these kinds of set-ups as the risk can be clearly defined. So, if the trade does not workout I will get stopped out for a small loss. From LiveRamp’s website: LiveRamp aspires to make it safe and easy for companies to use data effectively. Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
NYSE:RAMPLong
by jaxdog
2
$SMH Looking for Gap Fill?The semiconductor sector has been on fire since bottoming out at the end of October. In fact, the low to the high in November was just over 21%! Some consolidation of those gains would be healthy. I am looking for the NASDAQ:SMH ETF to fill the gap from Nov 14th. I am not predicting that it will however, I am thinking that is a good possibility. I have an alert set just above the gap fill. If that triggers, I will be looking for a reversal back up for a long entry. All TBD. NASDAQ:SOXX is a similar ETF with a similar pattern so whichever one you prefer I think is worth putting on a watchlist. I ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by jaxdog
Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) ~ December 4H SwingAMEX:IWM chart analysis/mapping. IWM ETF rally off late October lows on market expectations of the end to Fed rate hikes. Trading scenarios: Continuation rally #1 = multiple gap fill / 38.2% Fib / upper range of parallel channel (green) confluence zone. Shallow pullback #1 = 23.6% Fib / horizontal line (light blue dashed) confluence zone. Deeper pullback #1 = lower range of parallel channel (green) / 200MA confluence zone. Capitulation #1 = re-test ~163 bottom.
AMEX:IWM
by BlueHatInvestor
IWM: Small Caps Continue the Rally, Eyeing $198Small caps have sprung back to life. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) fell nearly 20% from its July 31 recovery high to a multi-year low in October of $162, undercutting the June 2020 mark of $164. Today, the move back up to $186 might feel like too much, too fast, but I see things otherwise. Notice in the chart that IWM actually went through a more than two-week stretch of trendless price action. Technicians like to see such periods of consolidation within uptrends as healthy signs of rest and recovery, often setting the stage for the next leg higher. That’s about what took place. Printing above $186 this morning in the premarket, outperforming the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures which are in the red, the little guys of the market are once again spreading some pre-holiday cheer. The move comes under the radar, too, considering that the focus among traders is primarily on bitcoin and gold. I also find it encouraging that IWM is up despite a bout of selling pressure in the bond market today, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield up a few basis points. I’ll be watching to see if IWM manages to retest the July highs at $198, up to the $202 area – a long-term resistance range dating back to Q3 2022.
AMEX:IWMLong
by mikezaccardi
ARE WE ARE ABOUT TO WITNESS A TRAIN WRECK FROM THE FRONT ROW?This evening I was watching TV and I get an email alert. The title of email, “Wall Street’s 2024 SP500 forecasts are out, are you positioned?”, … and to my surprise (not really) the future looks bright for the US stock markets next year. I immediately thought to myself…What did I click on to get this garbage? LOL Truthfully, I didn’t think that…I eagerly went to my office to open the email to see what firms were peddling what train wreck of a guess, and to what extent would market participants buy into this publicity stunt. If you’re like me and you’re either directly affiliated with the US markets or just a hit and run reader of online financial news, you probably get emails just like these. Obviously, these emails are click-bait for readers of market news…it worked on me. I practice a form of market analysis called Elliott Wave Theory. To be brief, this form of analysis charts the price action that market participants create each of every time they buy and sell. The buys and sells are obviously based on their positive or negative sentiment within any particular market. The patterns tend to be repeating, and fractal in nature, from the intraday to the very long-term time durations. Based on their repeating nature these patterns can be very accurately forecasted long into the future. This form of analysis does not take into account market and economic news or events. The basis for this theory created by RN Elliott in the 1930’s is that news and external events are not causal with the respect to the pattern and its aftermath. A great example of this would be the last two earnings releases for Nvidia (NVDA) in both the August and November releases. Each release far exceeded analysts’ expectations on both revenue and EPS, but the resulting stock price behavior was to decline 20% and 10% respectively. However, in both cases those types of stock price behaviors could have been forecasted in advance. On November 30 I posted this article,“ Is NVDA Headed to $467 " Later in the trading day, NVDA followed through as forecasted. This was not a function of magic, just EWT analysis and good ole' fashion math. Now for full disclosure, the rally off the October 27th bottom in the markets was not entirely unanticipated I just did not expect to the extent it has rallied and I had deemed that potential alternative pathway showing a rally, low probability . Now, having rallied from late October to last Friday, I would not get too excited about that sort of price action persisting. More on that when I update followers next time. Back to the 2024 SP500 targets. From Bank of America to Goldman Sachs, not one firm is projecting the SP500 to be down next year. In fact, they forecast modest growth in neighborhood of 5% to 10%, with some other firms as high as 20% higher from current levels. The above chart is the SPX cash market from inception. You can see with arrows how I am forecasting the future price action. I have written on this subject matter ad nauseum. Nonetheless, I wonder if these latest SP500 targets from Wall Street firms are elevating market participant expectations, only to set up a pending train wreck. Are we willing participants? Is Dow Theory Dead? Dow Jones Transportation Index Do Small Caps no longer lead? Small Caps Index I'm reminded of this true story. In 1849 the Texas county of McClennan thought it was a good idea to approve an event for the (Missouri, Kansas, Texas Railway) known as KATY for short, railway executive George Crush to market two steam engine trains of his deliberately colliding head on into each other. The event was highly marketed and touted as free to attend. However, to get to the area of the event in rural McClennan county, you had to buy a ticket on one of George Crush’s trains for $3.50. In today’s dollars that fare would be $125. On the day of the event, a whopping 40,000 people lined up to witness the spectacle. Ironically, the sheer total human population in attendance on that day, rivaled the total population of Texas’ largest city at the time. The main event got underway with the two trains chugging towards each other at top speed and collided in spectacular form,…right up until the steam engines of both locomotives exploded, and jettisoned debris in such violent form, that scores of people were injured, and 2 people actually died that day. Between the event promoters, staff, county officials, and each and every soul that made a conscience decision to attend such an event on that day, apparently not one thought, this could be the outcome. In hindsight the result seems both obvious in its destructive and harmful potential, while simultaneously being inexplicable why no one thought it was a bad idea. Are there two metaphorical locomotives running towards each other now in the economic world? Is the CNBC’s of the world, and Wall Street analysts of today with their lofty 2024 SP500 predictions nothing but a bunch of latter-day George Crushs’? Saying its free to attend their publicity stunt, but transport will cost you an arm and a leg. Then you literally have to pay up. Time will tell. Best to all, Chris
SP:SPXShort
by maikisch
6
$TSLA Wedge Break?I have been keeping an eye on NASDAQ:TSLA as it keeps putting in higher lows. It looks to me that we have a wedge pattern inside a larger wedge pattern. I have started a ½ size position in anticipation of running up to the larger wedge pattern where I would expect more resistance. In addition, NASDAQ:TSLA is now above all shorter-term moving averages and the rising 40 Week MA in white. A close below the 40 Week MA will be my stop area. Let’s see what happens. Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by jaxdog
12
$FROG Breaking out of PEG Pennant?I have been watching NASDAQ:FROG since the Power Earnings Gap on Nov 2nd. It pulled in nicely and I should have bought it on Nov 13, but I missed it. It has since pulled back again and looks to be breaking out of this consolidation area. I have started a ¼ size position with a stop below today’s low. I will look to add if it can follow thru without stopping me out this week. All TBD. They did miss on earnings but beat on revenue. Although they missed, the earnings growth was 47.4% and revenue grew by 23.1% Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking. From earningswhispers.com : JFrog Missed Consensus Estimates Wednesday, November 1, 2023 at 4:07 PM ET JFrog (FROG) reported a loss of $0.10 per share on revenue of $88.64 million for the third quarter ended September 2023. The consensus estimate was a loss of $0.08 per share on revenue of $87.56 million. The company missed consensus estimates by 25.00% while revenue grew 23.12% on a year-over-year basis. The company said it expects fourth quarter non-GAAP earnings of $0.12 to $0.13 per share on revenue of $92.50 million to $93.50 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.08 per share on revenue of $92.93 million for the quarter ending December 31, 2023. JFrog, the creator of the DevOps platform, is on a “Liquid Software” mission to enable the flow of software seamlessly and securely from the developer’s keystrokes to production.
NASDAQ:FROGLong
by jaxdog
$FRSH Breaking Out of Downtrend?NASDAQ:FRSH I like this chart except for a declining 50 day moving average (red) and it has yet to put in a higher low. The positives are a rising 40-week MA (white) price has moved over the shorter-term Mas. It looks to be breaking out over the downtrend line. I like how I can define my risk if I am wrong. I have started a ¼ size position and I will look to add if / when it moves over the near horizontal trendline. I will place my stop on a close below the 40-week MA.
NASDAQ:FRSHLong
by jaxdog
IWM has now ended the 1st ABC up decline now in waveB The chart posted is the IWM Russell 2000 tracking etf . As the forecast called for an ABC rally back to just above 181 we should now see a 3 wave decline to about 171/165 focus on 167 area over the next 2 weeks and then rally in a 5 wave structure from that low about dec 4 to the 10 th low into a peak at .618 at the 185.7 to 187.10 area about dec 24th to dec 29th Before the next very clear leg down in the BEAR market The market could holdup to jan 10 to the 17th some what but after that the data get very very neg in the Business cycle
AMEX:IWM
by wavetimer
1
Russell 2000 (RTY, M2K) Low-Timeframe ShortQuick idea here as we look to get back in a groove with analysis/posts after a very light October. Not going to include a lot of elaboration, but we're looking to take advantage of a swing short (price depending) via a low timeframe (5-minute) RTY supply zone (defining candles not pictured here since sub-15-minute charts cannot be posted). If price approaches the zone hot (expanded range candle vs. grinding action), look to take the trade outright upon penetration of the lower bound (1795.4). If RTY stair-steps higher, forming new pockets of demand between current price and supply, consider taking a confirmation entry (price exit from zone). Stop should be placed a bit above the zone's upper bound. Keep in mind round # psych @ 1800. Targets are 2:1 and 5:1 (look for a fall back to origin of CPI breakout). Finally, US stocks have been very bullish as of late, so shorts fly in the face of current momentum. That said, RTY has consistently been the weakest of the 4 US equity indexes, so if you're going to short one, it's probably your best bet. Have to run, but good luck! Stay tuned b/c a LOT more ideas are coming soon! Jon @ LionHart Trading
CME_MINI:RTY1!Short
by LionHart_Trading
US Russell 2000 RTY ~ Ping Pong Perpetuity (Daily Chart)CAPITALCOM:RTY chart mapping/analysis. Russell 2000 still stuck within trading range despite recent rallies across major US indices. What's on the chart: Ascending parallel channel (light blue) captures upward trend over multi-decade timeframe Descending parallel channel (white) frames downward trend from upper to lower range (multi-decade) parallel channel Horizontal lines (yellow dashed) locks in trading range (June 2022 to present) Descending trend-line (light blue dotted) highlights pivot support points Fibonnaci levels establishes key supply/demand zones Short-medium term outlook: Neutral-bearish RTY remains in " Ping Pong Perpetuity " until breakout on either side of trading range 200DMA acting as dynamic resistance, exerting downward pressure Bullish reversal = rally above 200DMA to switch trend & test upper trading range
CAPITALCOM:RTY
by BlueHatInvestor
Despite a strong week, IWM remains in trading rangePrimary Chart: IWM / Russell 2000 Weekly Timeframe The Russell 2000 (IWM) is often a leading indicator in US markets. It led to the downside in early November 2021 after a false breakout out of its 2021 topping-pattern's resistance around $234. SPX topped nearly two months later on January 4, 2022. While small-caps are not necessarily always the first to make a move, it is something frequently cited by commentators and analysts. This is why the Russell 2000 is important for traders and investors to follow to maintain a deeper understanding of the broader US equity markets. Despite a very strong weekly close for IWM, its price remains in the lower half of its trading range. This trading range has contained price for the past 1.5 years, since the topping pattern's support (at the upper blue rectangle) broke down in January 2022. Unlike other major US indices like the Nasdaq 100, IWM has continued to struggle and remains well below its August 2022 and January / February 2023 highs. Two months ago, in a recent post titled " Something is Rotten in the State of Markets ," IWM's underperformance of SPX provided a basis for discussion as to why US equity markets may remain unhealthy despite the bullish price action YTD (see link below). A strong and long-lasting bull market should show signs of broad participation. Many breadth indicators have shown very narrow breadth. It's not a surprise, in fact, that SPX's rally and upside performance has been driven by 5 to 10 SPX names, with the other 490-495 flat, lagging, or up weakly. Supplementary Chart A This previous April 10 analysis displayed a hypothetical price path intended to reflect the possibility of more sideways and choppy price action in the intermediate term. The choppy price action has largely unfolded as expected (click the play / refresh arrow on the prior post from April 10, 2023). In fact, IWM's price at the time of the prior post was at $173.89, and a month later on May 8 it had closed almost at the same level around $172.72. Now IWM appears to be breaking above the recent trading range. Major levels of resistance appear on the Primary Chart as Fibonacci levels (the .618 retracement and the .50 retracement, which is not technically a Fibonacci proportion) as well as the anchored VWAP from the November 2021 ATH. How price responds to these levels will be important to watch in coming weeks especially after June 16, 2023 OPEX—a quad witching event. It is notable that IWM trades far below its major ATH VWAP from November 2021. Compare how IWM's price trades relative to this VWAP (labeled on the Primary Chart above) with how SPY's price trades relative to its ATH VWAP. SPY's VWAP anchored to its ATH is shown in Supplementary chart B below. Supplementary Chart B Finally, a relative chart of Russell 2000 vs. S&P 500 is helpful to examine these two major US equity indices and how IWM has performed YTD relative to the SPY / SPX. See Supplementary Chart C below. This relative chart shows IWM still in a downtrend relative to SPY. And it still shows that IWM vs. SPY remains below major resistance. Given that IWM is a leading index at times, it will be interesting to see whether what happens to the major resistance on this relative chart that was broken in early April 2023. Will it hold? Supplementary Chart C In summary, the small-cap stocks in the US equity market are lagging despite putting in a strong weekly performance this week of +3.33%. The primary trend in small caps remains sideways by any measure. Will IWM play catch up to the other main US indices like S&P 500 ( SP:SPX ) and Nasdaq 100 ( NASDAQ:NDX NASDAQ:QQQ )? No one knows for sure. But the liquidity problems plaguing the US economy tend to show up in the weakest names first, which usually are also the smallest names. Could IWM's underperformance be a sign of this liquidity stress? Or will it catch up to confirm that the current rally in NDX and SPY are perfectly healthy under the hood and headed to new all-time highs? Stay tuned. And thanks for reading this and for your encouragement and support. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
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AMEX:IWM
by SquishTrade
25