Opening (IRA): IWM July 21st 150 Short Put... for a 1.48 credit.
Comments: Targeting the <16 delta strike in the shortest duration paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the broad market. IVR/IV isn't fabulous here at 1/22.7%, but will look to add in shorter duration and/or at better strikes in higher IV should we get it at some point.
IWM
Opening (IRA): IWM June 30th 157 Short Put... for a 1.61 credit.
Comments: Targeting the shortest duration <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into small caps.
This, admittedly, isn't an ideal premium-selling environment here, with 30-day at the very low end of the 52-week range, but will look to add at intervals and in shorter duration if that starts to pay again.
RTY UpdateRetail numbers missed bigly, garbage retail stocks all down big today.
Made some money off BUD puts, though I actually expected the numbers to be good, lol.
Small caps down 1.4%, at this point I'm not chasing the drop today. However, it looks like RTY is headed to oversold again, so I'll look at it again this afternoon, maybe throw another $2k bet against some garbage. I need to be careful though, any time I make decent money, I throw it away on a stupid gamble, lol.
Maybe I should just take a break, I'm up close to $10k the last 4 trading days....
MT technical Breakdown on watchIf retail earnings come in negative this stock could see further weakness.
A head & shoulders pattern has triggered which means we have to be aware of continued weakness to the downside.
A close above the neckline negates the pattern but being below key moving averages does not display signs of strength.
RTY UpdateAs usual, small caps are the weakest, MFI already hit oversold. ES and NQ are getting close, but won;t happen until Monday.
Not sure about gap direction Monday or if RSI also need to hit oversold. Either way, the market will signal a buy on Monday.... as usual I'll wait and hope for a gap down to make the decision easier.
RTY UpdateRSI hit overbought and turned around, I dumped my PCAR calls on open because it didn't look right.
Wasn't expecting today to be a pump and dump but numbers weren't that great. Made a couple of k's on PCAR, but really disappointed it didn't go up more.
Market just whipsawing again, no positions, I have no idea what it;s doing today.
RTY Short. We got a nice rejection of the Daily sell zone. Looking for continuation to 1745 and then ultimately 1700.
Entry Price - 1774
Stop loss - 1800 (I would like to see a strong close above 1800 level.
First Target - 1745
Final Target - 1700
Please share your views. Thank you
RTY UpdateNot oversold yet, not going long today though pretty high possibility of the usual Friday pump and dump tomorrow. Will wait until my indicators say to buy.
I think the selloff ended for the day because a lot of stocks hit support (see GM for example), but I'm not sure if that holds.
Looks like all I'm gonna make is beer money this week, but at least I didn't lose money in the Fed whipsaw. Also, PTON down and W up on earnings, the opposite of usual, lol. Glad I didn;t bet on that too.
Russell 2000 (RTY) Looking to Break LowerRussell 2000 (RTY) Cycle from 4.3.2023 high is in progress as a 5 waves diagonal. Down from 4.3.2023 high, wave (i) ended at 1752.7 and rally in wave (ii) ended at 1825.43. The 1 hour chart below shows the chart starting from wave (ii) peak. The Index then resumes lower in wave (iii) towards 1731.7. Internal subdivision of wave (iii) unfolded as a 5 waves impulse. Down from wave (ii), wave i ended at 1794.8 and rally in wave ii ended at 1814. Index resumes lower again in wave iii towards 1733, wave iv rally ended at 1748.80. Final leg wave v ended at 1731.7 which completed wave (iii).
Index then corrected in wave (iv) with internal subdivision as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave (iii), wave a ended at 1762 and wave b pullback ended at 1742.20. Final leg wave c higher ended at 1796.50 which completed wave (iv). Index resumes lower again in wave (v). Down from wave (iv), wave i ended at 1720.4 and wave ii ended at 1778.9. Wave iii ended at 1716.70. Expect wave iv to fail and Index to resume another leg lower to end wave v of (v) of ((i)). Afterwards, Index should rally in wave ((ii)) before it resumes lower again. Near term, as far as pivot at 1825.43 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3 ,7, 11 swing for further downside.
$QQQ all time outlook - prediction for FOMC MayNASDAQ:QQQ
From this all-time chart, we can see that price is still holding above the "all-time upper support line"; that is, above the 300s.
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IMO, we can swing between that support line and the "all-time resistance line", for the rest of the year.
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In that regards, we can hit the low 300s again sometime this quarter, since we are hanging high for now, on this quarterly chart.
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Also, in my opinion, we are possibly going to crack below that upper support line, later this year, or early next year. That's because of that "Channel Overhead Resistance".
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Cracking below that all-time support line would push the market into a long term downtrend, similar to what we experienced during the 2000 bust.
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As for the rest of this year, as long as we keep swinging between those 2 pivotal lines, we can run up till close to all-time highs, imo.
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As for today's FOMC, I think we are looking at an FOMC spike till the 321s/322s, before the fall back to fill the gap at the low 300s....where it meets that "all-time support line.....for the next rebound.
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Trade Safe - Cheers and good luck.
RTY MFI overboughtRSI isn't there yet, but ES & NQ already hit overbought on both.
I don't expect the market to tank, probably just a dip. Bought a few AFRM puts for kicks and giggles this morning, see if it breaks support tomorrow.
Hoping the algos start cycling again now that earnings are over (except AAPL), buy the dip when MFI goes oversold.
NQ RSI OversoldWent to grab some lunch (I'm on west coast) and noticed that RSI hit oversold on ES, NQ, and RTY. MI is not quite there yet but it'll hit it before market open tomorrow. If you;re short, I suggest closing some positions if not all.
Oddly, this is an indicator for me to buy PCAR, lol, but I think the earnings play was good enough since I'm taking the day off tomorrow. Gap direction will still depend on GOOG and MSFT earnings.
All cash, no trades, but I figure I'd post this for my awesome loyal followers.
4-25-23 [russel2000]Good afternoon, Anon,
Seeking a comprehensive breakdown of the Russel2000?
Allow me to elucidate for you.
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The Russell 2000 is presently entrenched in a quintessential Wyckoff accumulation phase:
Dubbed - The Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1.
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Who is Wyckoff, and why is he of significance?
Well, Wyckoff reigns as the vanquisher of bears,
as well as the architect of unanticipated realities.
Wyckoff embodies an interdimensional algorithm,
crafted to cleave you asunder.
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Green trajectory = Should the ensuing days yield favorable earnings, anticipate the Russell 2000 to be propelled into the celestial realms.
Strawberry trajectory = Russell breaches the low with ferocity, accompanied by a colossal volume spike, prior to being catapulted to all-time highs.
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Ps. An upsurge in small-cap stocks signifies an environment inclined towards risk-taking.