MT technical Breakdown on watchIf retail earnings come in negative this stock could see further weakness.
A head & shoulders pattern has triggered which means we have to be aware of continued weakness to the downside.
A close above the neckline negates the pattern but being below key moving averages does not display signs of strength.
IWM
RTY UpdateAs usual, small caps are the weakest, MFI already hit oversold. ES and NQ are getting close, but won;t happen until Monday.
Not sure about gap direction Monday or if RSI also need to hit oversold. Either way, the market will signal a buy on Monday.... as usual I'll wait and hope for a gap down to make the decision easier.
RTY UpdateRSI hit overbought and turned around, I dumped my PCAR calls on open because it didn't look right.
Wasn't expecting today to be a pump and dump but numbers weren't that great. Made a couple of k's on PCAR, but really disappointed it didn't go up more.
Market just whipsawing again, no positions, I have no idea what it;s doing today.
RTY Short. We got a nice rejection of the Daily sell zone. Looking for continuation to 1745 and then ultimately 1700.
Entry Price - 1774
Stop loss - 1800 (I would like to see a strong close above 1800 level.
First Target - 1745
Final Target - 1700
Please share your views. Thank you
RTY UpdateNot oversold yet, not going long today though pretty high possibility of the usual Friday pump and dump tomorrow. Will wait until my indicators say to buy.
I think the selloff ended for the day because a lot of stocks hit support (see GM for example), but I'm not sure if that holds.
Looks like all I'm gonna make is beer money this week, but at least I didn't lose money in the Fed whipsaw. Also, PTON down and W up on earnings, the opposite of usual, lol. Glad I didn;t bet on that too.
Russell 2000 (RTY) Looking to Break LowerRussell 2000 (RTY) Cycle from 4.3.2023 high is in progress as a 5 waves diagonal. Down from 4.3.2023 high, wave (i) ended at 1752.7 and rally in wave (ii) ended at 1825.43. The 1 hour chart below shows the chart starting from wave (ii) peak. The Index then resumes lower in wave (iii) towards 1731.7. Internal subdivision of wave (iii) unfolded as a 5 waves impulse. Down from wave (ii), wave i ended at 1794.8 and rally in wave ii ended at 1814. Index resumes lower again in wave iii towards 1733, wave iv rally ended at 1748.80. Final leg wave v ended at 1731.7 which completed wave (iii).
Index then corrected in wave (iv) with internal subdivision as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave (iii), wave a ended at 1762 and wave b pullback ended at 1742.20. Final leg wave c higher ended at 1796.50 which completed wave (iv). Index resumes lower again in wave (v). Down from wave (iv), wave i ended at 1720.4 and wave ii ended at 1778.9. Wave iii ended at 1716.70. Expect wave iv to fail and Index to resume another leg lower to end wave v of (v) of ((i)). Afterwards, Index should rally in wave ((ii)) before it resumes lower again. Near term, as far as pivot at 1825.43 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3 ,7, 11 swing for further downside.
$QQQ all time outlook - prediction for FOMC MayNASDAQ:QQQ
From this all-time chart, we can see that price is still holding above the "all-time upper support line"; that is, above the 300s.
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IMO, we can swing between that support line and the "all-time resistance line", for the rest of the year.
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In that regards, we can hit the low 300s again sometime this quarter, since we are hanging high for now, on this quarterly chart.
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Also, in my opinion, we are possibly going to crack below that upper support line, later this year, or early next year. That's because of that "Channel Overhead Resistance".
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Cracking below that all-time support line would push the market into a long term downtrend, similar to what we experienced during the 2000 bust.
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As for the rest of this year, as long as we keep swinging between those 2 pivotal lines, we can run up till close to all-time highs, imo.
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As for today's FOMC, I think we are looking at an FOMC spike till the 321s/322s, before the fall back to fill the gap at the low 300s....where it meets that "all-time support line.....for the next rebound.
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Trade Safe - Cheers and good luck.
RTY MFI overboughtRSI isn't there yet, but ES & NQ already hit overbought on both.
I don't expect the market to tank, probably just a dip. Bought a few AFRM puts for kicks and giggles this morning, see if it breaks support tomorrow.
Hoping the algos start cycling again now that earnings are over (except AAPL), buy the dip when MFI goes oversold.
NQ RSI OversoldWent to grab some lunch (I'm on west coast) and noticed that RSI hit oversold on ES, NQ, and RTY. MI is not quite there yet but it'll hit it before market open tomorrow. If you;re short, I suggest closing some positions if not all.
Oddly, this is an indicator for me to buy PCAR, lol, but I think the earnings play was good enough since I'm taking the day off tomorrow. Gap direction will still depend on GOOG and MSFT earnings.
All cash, no trades, but I figure I'd post this for my awesome loyal followers.
4-25-23 [russel2000]Good afternoon, Anon,
Seeking a comprehensive breakdown of the Russel2000?
Allow me to elucidate for you.
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The Russell 2000 is presently entrenched in a quintessential Wyckoff accumulation phase:
Dubbed - The Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1.
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Who is Wyckoff, and why is he of significance?
Well, Wyckoff reigns as the vanquisher of bears,
as well as the architect of unanticipated realities.
Wyckoff embodies an interdimensional algorithm,
crafted to cleave you asunder.
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Green trajectory = Should the ensuing days yield favorable earnings, anticipate the Russell 2000 to be propelled into the celestial realms.
Strawberry trajectory = Russell breaches the low with ferocity, accompanied by a colossal volume spike, prior to being catapulted to all-time highs.
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Ps. An upsurge in small-cap stocks signifies an environment inclined towards risk-taking.
Growth Prospects? - Much work to doInvestors may benefit from keeping an eye on this relationship of IWM to Gold. Small caps, represented by the the Russell 2000 index ( AMEX:IWM ), are generally well-regarded and in favor when growth prospects are good; gold on the other hand is typically considered a defensive store of value. I consider that early 2018 period, when things were generally clicking pretty well in markets, to be a very "key" level and one well worth monitoring. A confirming bullish trigger would be seeing this IWM/Gold relationship break out of the present downward channel, and getting back to and through that key level. Until then, when assessing risk / reward in this 'whipsaw' environment, investors may be better served by exercising continued caution and selectively.
Opening (Margin): IWM April 6th/June 16th Double Die... for a 57.79 debit.
Comments: Doing something a little funky here -- a double diagonal.
The best way to look at this setup is by breaking it down into two aspects: (a) a long call diagonal, with the back month at the +90 delta strike, the front at the -30; and (b) a long put diagonal, with the back month at the -90 delta strike, the front at the -30.
I tend to manage each aspect separately, taking profit on the winning side, while simultaneously looking to reduce cost basis on the losing one, so it's important to know where my break evens are for a given side.
Long call diagonal aspect:
39.42 cost basis, 169.42 break even, 44 wide.
Long put diagonal aspect:
18.37 cost basis, 170.63 break even, 25 wide.
$AI Holding Support?I’ve taken a small position in NYSE:AI here as it seems to have put in a support level. In addition, the selling volume has declined quite a bit suggesting to me that sellers are pretty much done. If we have a pocket pivot in the next few days / weeks, I will bring it up to a full position size. I am using the support area as my stop guideline. If it fails, then it proves that was not a supported area. For my trading style I like the risk reward ratio here.
Thanks for looking. Ideas, not investment / trading advice.
$QQQ Falling Out of Rising Wedge?NASDAQ:QQQ may be flashing a warning sign here. Rising Wedge Patterns often lead to a new down leg but not always. Looks like we have a breach to the downside on this wedge. Additionally, it looks like today’s candle is a Shooting Star. These too often are a sign of weakness. The good news is that it bounced off the 20 EMA (blue). If it loses the 20 EMA I will be looking for a short sale entry using NASDAQ:SQQQ as a short, NASDAQ:SQQQ is a 3 times short leveraged ETF.
This is my personal observation that may or may not play out. I would rather the market head higher, but I am open to it heading lower too.
Ideas, not investing / trading advice.
$FFTY Breakout / Re-Test?AMEX:FFTY The Innovator IBD 50 ETF – This ETF is sponsored by Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) It holds high beta / high growth names mostly mid and small caps. I like it for its holdings, very similar to AMEX:ARKK except that the holdings in AMEX:FFTY rotate a little more than $ARKK. Like AMEX:ARKK , this is a good barometer of risk-on / risk-off in the market.
Here is what I see on the chart (most is notated on the chart). Break above both the resistance area and move over the 30 Week SMA. That happened yesterday and looks to be re-testing today. I like all that volume this had on Monday, not sure the volume count but the most single day volume since 2019. Tuesday’s volume was also more than double the average volume. The pullback today is on par with normal volume levels, most likely profit taking by some of Mondays’ buyers and maybe a few underwater buyers from yesterday.
The price is above the shorter-term MA’s, and we have a recent MACD cross. All in all, I will be looking for a reversal from today’s down day for an entry. I like this set-up because I can put a stop loss under one or all of the moving averages with a clearly defined risk.
Thanks for looking. Ideas, not investing/ trading advice.