RTY UpdateCPI pump and dump as predicted, RTY went overbought on RSI with MFI divergence.
Fed meeting minutes at 2pm, unemployment and PPI numbers premarket tomorrow and retail numbers premarket Friday. Garbage stocks didn't even last 15 minutes, lol. PTON shot down so fast I couldn't even catch up to it. Managed to snag a few BYND puts, we'll see where taht goes.
Might snag some CAT puts EOD for unemployment number tomorrow.
IWM
Dow Jones - DIA DJIBoy, are these markets something else. Since before 2008, markets correlated relatively close to economic data. Since the introduction of Fed intervention with slashed rates and Quantitative Easing, "markets" were able to "shrug" off even the worst geopolitical and economic events. In fact, it defies all logic.
Logically, markets can and should ignore all TA when an economy is hurting significantly. There isn't a bright spot in the economic data. The consumer is badly beaten and barely holding on. Discretionary spending, credit card debt, personal debt, consumer sentiment, and consumer confidence show us that the average American is at their limit for what they can spend and do. A new study showed that 1 in 4 Americans are skipping Thanksgiving Dinner altogether because of the costs. Keep in mind the collapsing retail, collapsing freight by sea, and now the threat of rail strikes in December which is quickly becoming a reality.
This of course is one of countless statistics that show the pain of average American. Other statistics show savings rates have plummeted and credit card debt is at record levels as people's pay-checks are no longer covering their expenditures.
We've about peaked in this market, looking at a double top from August 2022.. but again, TA doesn't matter as it did before. MACD and RSI have PLENTY of room on the downside. Look at the economic data, even the TA for the short term and position accordingly.
This chart can and will most likely reflect majority of stocks from S&P, Nasdaq, QQQ, SPY, IWM or Russell 2000.
$ARKK Wedging$ARKK seems to be a barometer for risk-on risk-off in this market. A month ago, I was looking at the re-test of the 30 Week MA (white line) then the break back above the flat line of resistance to be a long signal. (I took the trade long only to be stopped out 3 days later.) That turned out to be a false breakout.
We are now in a downward consolidation pattern that could break either way. I have alerts set at both sloping trendlines and I’ll look at taking a trade either long or short depending on the direction of the break. If going short, I’ll likely use $SARK an inverse ETF for the ARKK fund.
I will also be looking for other longs or shorts in the market once ARKK breaks either way. Ideas, not investing / trading advice.
XLU outperforming...What you need to know. When the XLU outperforms the broad market, you better be taking note as an investor or trader.
What does it mean when Utilities outperform the S&P500?
The better question to ask is why do people buy Utilities?
We have informed our members of this important signal and why its critical to understand this price action.
A hint, most investors buy Utilities for Yield & protection .
QQQ Bullish Bias Continuation LONGQQQ has weathered federal action and the banking meltdown quite well.
It has trended upward from a double-bottom pivot March 1 to March 13.
The MACD has held steady without any bearish divergence from price action.
Sell order blocks are lurking at 325. QQQ is trending above its anchored
VWAP showing that buying pressure exceeds selling pressure.
I will trade the QQQ with call options in TQQQ expiring Friday April 6th.
Getting several of them will allow for partial position closures as the call
values rise as a form of risk management.
IWM Russell 2000 RUT affected by the SIVB collapse! Puts to buy!After the last RUT Russell 2000 Price Target was Perfectly reached:
Now you need to know that many of the Russell 2K companies will be impacted by the SIVB collapse.
Roughly 50% of the US venture capital-funded startups are clients of SVB , potentially putting 65,000 startups at risk of payroll disruptions. Such a situation could have significant consequences for the startup and tech sectors.
Silicon Valley Bank did business with FTX, plus many other formerly overvalued tech companies.
With $210 billion in assets, $SIBV was the 15th largest bank in the US in terms of deposits.
IWM puts considering buying:
2023-4-21 expiration date
$169 Strike Price
$3.65 Premium
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
RTY UpdateES and NQ MFI are creeping up because they went oversold yesterday but RTY MFI is dropping because it hi overbought this morning. Also, FDAX MFI hit overbought, so high probability of a gap down tomorrow or every index.
ES and NQ might melt up today but watch out for the gap tomorrow and I'd shy away from small caps.
Still all cash, waiting for Friday CPE numbers.
RTY UpdateThe algos are pumping money into RTY trying to hold that blue line. You can see MFI climbing.
Problem is MFI will go overbought Monday so we'll see a drop Tuesday, if not Monday afternoon. Plus Euro markets tanked so we might even see a gap down Monday. Seems to me garbage stocks are done tanking so there's really no choice but to go long here.
Crappy whipsaw market to trade.
IWM IS NOW A BUY LOOK FOR IT TO RALLY IN AN ABC FOR 1.5 WEEKS The chart posted is now ending a clear 5 waves down to end wave 1 of the CRASH OR IS 5 DOWN FOR WAVE C OF B BOTH SAY TO COVER SHORTS IN THIS ONLY INDEX AND LOOK FOR THIS INDEX TO RALLY DO NOT ATTEMPT TO THINK IT WILL BE THE OTHER INDEXS AS MUCH
Opening (IRA): IWM April 6th 168/June 16th 197 LPD*... for a 21.30 debit.
Comments: Re-erecting my short delta hedge in IWM against my long delta portfolio. Buying the June -90 delta put and selling the April 6th +30 one. This isn't greatly ideal here with small caps being at the low end of their range, so wouldn't recommend doing it as a standalone short ... .
Metrics: 21.30 cost basis with a 175.70 break even on a 29 wide.
* -- Long Put Diagonal.
Capital One....technical Breakdown loomingWith major weakness in the banking sector we are still seeing the contagion play out. Some banks are more at risk than others.
Based off of a blow out in Credit Default Swaps. The bond market is showing there is tremendous risk in this bank.
Just like Credit Suisse CD's blew out befroe the collapse, we are watching COF credit defaults blowout.
Have You Considered A Ride Down IWM 170? AMEX:IWM 50 MA crossed down the 200 MA on the daily and 4H timeframe. The daily chart shows a lot of sellers. IWM also made lower highs on the weekly timeframe. Also, the exchange traded fund is resting on a trendline that it's maintained since March 2020! If we break down below 170 and it holds, IWM should see more downside. The weekly chart shows an increase of sellers between last week and this week. Last but not least, the etf shows a shooting star candle that printed on the weekly chart (March 13-17, 2023). Therefore, my plan is to short IWM below 170!
I will ride down IWM 170 (provided price gets there of course).
*This is not financial advice
Peace & Harmony,
MrALtrades00
RTY UpdateAppears to be a complete pump and dump failure. I got bullish because of the buy volume the past couple of days, but it hit overbought on MFI and now is dropping. i think there's potential for it to stay oversold for a day or two when it gets there because it's dropping on much lower volume. Those that bought have to sell, and volume isn;t matching up yet.
Opening (IRA): IWM March 24th 175/May 19th 202 LPD*... for a 20.52 debit.
Comments: Resetting my short delta hedge against a long delta portfolio ... . You know the drill: buying the -90 put in the back and selling the +30 delta put in the front.
20.52 cost basis with a 181.48 break even on a 27 wide.
* -- Long Put Diagonal.