IWM
TZA Long, IWM Short due to weakness in XLF & SPY- Very notable drop in the last 3 days for all sectors. Most important factor to remember is always following the trend and dont try to fight against it. Even though today there was a lot of opportunity in both direction it was quite a choppy day.
- I mentioned yesterday any pop bullish on premarket data will be a good short for all sectors and i will be getting in too.
- Took a decent 6100 shares position in TZA which is leverage 3x ETF for IWM short.
- SPY and QQQ now below 200 daily MA.
- Very oversold on multiple time frames would like to play a bounce Monday when we have all time frames oversold at a same time, ideally a gap down Monday for a bonuce play.
- All trends still favor the bears expect we are still in a weekly uptrend, SPY approaching that weekly support very soon.
Pre NFP - SPX, IWM OIL GOLD TLT BTCAll in the video, we are in a critical area of support for the markets. Oil is especially leaning bearish for me as it's been winding up for months and looks ready to break down. I talk about IWM/SPY bull flag, and possible strength in both TLT and Gold. Non Farm Payrolls are tomorrow so anything is possible, including a rally to 4100 area again, if it happens, it would be a stone cold short in my opinion.
Good luck!
IWM rejection at the 18 monthlyAlthough there is support for IWM between 182-1, I think the real target will be the combination of the monthly BB and 100 ma, around 158-156. Structural trendline (purple) looks right and it's no surprise it showed up at the 18ma exactly to regect the advance.
IWM divided by SPY is a bull flag, so I expect IWM to sell off much more than spy once it breaks out - which looks to me like it could happen this month.
Good luck!
Opening (IRA): IWM March 10th 182/April 21st 204 LPD*... for a 16.20 debit.
Comments: Re-erecting my short delta hedge in IWM after taking off my earlier setup in profit. Back the -90 delta put in the back and selling the 30 delta put in the front. 16.20 cost basis with a 187.50 break even on a 22 wide.
* -- Long Put Diagonal.
RTY UpdateRSI oversold again, but I wouldn't consider going long until ES and NQ also go oversold.
ES MFI has a LONG way to go before it hits oversold. Plus the market gave up on the short squeeze and lost all interest in garbage stocks. PTON down 7% now. Friday is when funds rebalance their portfolios, and I'd imagine they'd want to get rid of garbage stocks and move to dividend stocks. Flight to safety trade tomorrow, I think. Problem is ES MFI needs to go down....
Opening (IRA): IWM Feb 24th/April 21st 185/208 LPD*... for a 17.30 debit.
Comments: Resetting my broad market short delta hedge against a long delta portfolio in IWM here buying the back month -90 delta and selling the front month +30 delta. Cost basis of 17.30 with a 190.70 break even on a 23 wide.
* -- Long Put Diagonal.
Opened (IRA): IWM July 21st 155 Short Put... for a 1.87 credit.
Comments: Did a few things right at the close ... . Went out a smidge more long-dated since I have positions on in April, May, and June. Just looking to get more capital deployed. Targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into small caps. Will generally look to do something at 50% max (e.g., roll up, roll out, etc.).
Opening (IRA): IWM October 14th 160/December 16th 194 LPD*... for a 26.09 debit.
Comments: Short delta hedge against a long delta portfolio. 26.09 cost basis on a 34 wide with a 167.91 break even, a 7.91 ($791) max, and a 3.96 ($396) 50% max. The preference would be to put these hedges on in strength, so probably not the best setup as a standalone trade.
* -- Long Put Diagonal.
IWM - Russell 2000 Small Cap ETF - OVERBOUGHTRSI has fallen back under 70 & ADX is rising. Selling could become a STRONG TREND as the dollar rebounds with rising yields. Expecting a $VIX spike to occur if $DXY continues upward. Staying HEDGED for the DEBT BUBBLE implosion with $UVIX $UVXY $HDGE $TZA
The Russell Riddle: which chart is 2008? ($IWM W) For the answer, scroll down to the comment section.
Two charts of $IWM weekly TF.
One chart is current (as of 2/4/2023).
The other is 2008 ,up to 4 candles before the 50% drop.
Which one crashed 50%?
The conundrum: why do we assess current price action as bullish, when a similar pattern resulted in the GFC in 2008?
There are many possible answers, none of them wrong.
The one that interests me is the possibility that our bias is more extreme when we have experienced (traded) the price history. In this case it means experiencing the climb from the October 2022 lows. The alternative is basing our bias on the price history in a chart but *without* experiencing the returns themselves. For example IWM's similar price action in 2008. Any difference in sentiment would be consistent with studies showing that decisions made from experience often diverge from those based on description.
$ARKK Showing New Life!$ARKK has broken out of a long base here and on big volume. It has a run rate today that is on track to be 3-times average daily volume. I have a ½ size position in this as I think it’s a big player if 1. $TSLA continues it’s run, 2. Small Caps continue to run and 3. If Mid-Caps continue to run. I expect if those things are true, ARKK may have some out sized moves relative to the general market. Ideas, not investing / trading advice.
#IWM Russel 2000 looking technically bullishSome real meaningful progression for the bull case in US small cap stocks.
50 dma > 200dma
Price has cleared the critical resistance level between 187-188.
Price has some short term resistance at the 38.2% fib retracement here, but it looks like we should progress to the next resistance level at the 50% fib retracement at 200.
Chart is showing a clear formation of higher swing lows and higher highs.
Hard to be bearish this chart.
Opportunity here to buy the breakout with a relatively small stop as a close below 187.50 might put the bullish case on hold.