Closed (IRA): IWM December 16th 145 Short Put... for a .76 debit.
Comments: (Late Post). Collected a total of 2.11 in credits. (See Post Below). Out today for a .76 debit. 1.35 ($135) profit.
This leaves me with two rungs -- the November 18th 163 (currently 14 delta) and the November 18th 173 (currently 33 delta), for a total of 44 long delta. Both of these are hedged off with a long put vertical in IWM (See Post Below), which is currently marking at -74 delta. I'll be rolling out the short leg of the diagonal tomorrow, which will decrease the short delta slightly, after which I will look to see whether I should add back in IWM long delta to make sure that I'm not too short/directional in this position. (33 long - 74 short = -41 delta). As part of this consideration, I also need to look at my portfolio delta as a whole to see whether it's okay to keep the IWM position net delta short, since it enjoys a close correlation with SPY (.95 3-month).
Since it kind of drives me slightly bonkers to leave positions skewed out (regardless of whether they can do double duty as a closely correlated broad market hedge), I'll probably end up adding some long delta back in.
IWM
Rolling (IRA): IWM November 18th 152 Short Put to December 16th... 145 for a .58 credit.
Comments: With the 152 nearly at 50% max, rolling down and out to the strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit. Total credits collected of 1.53 (See Post Below), plus the .58 here, for a total of 2.11. Realizing a gain, reducing risk, reducing buying power, and improving my break even all in one swoop ... .
10/23/22 HONHoneywell International Inc. ( NASDAQ:HON )
Sector: Producer Manufacturing (Industrial Conglomerates)
Market Capitalization: 123.158B
Current Price: $182.81
Breakout price trigger: $185.85
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $182.00-$169.55
Price Target: $200.40-$203.00 (1st), $221.20-$226.00 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 161-170d (1st), 323-351d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $HON 3/17/23 190c, $HON 1/19/24 200c
Trade price as of publish date: $8.20/contract, $17.10/contract
10/23/22 SMSM Energy Company ( NYSE:SM )
Sector: Energy Minerals (Oil & Gas Production)
Market Capitalization: 5.455B
Current Price: $44.50
Breakout price trigger: $45.50
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $43.30-$39.70
Price Target: $54.30-$55.60
Estimated Duration to Target: 62-66d
Contract of Interest: $SM 1/20/23 50cTrade price as of publish date: $3.70/contract
10/23/22 HUMHumana Inc. ( NYSE:HUM )
Sector: Health Services (Managed Health Care)
Market Capitalization: 64.611B
Current Price: $510.54
Breakout price trigger: $515.20
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $496.45-$473.95
Price Target: $562.30-$568.90
Estimated Duration to Target: 147-156d
Contract of Interest: $HUM 1/20/23 520c
Trade price as of publish date: $26.20/contract
RTY UpdateWound up being a 4 day short squeeze after all, like I said last week, I changed my focus to bankrupt companies and snagged W puts this morning. Closed out my winners and losers (from last week) and put the profits into W puts at a lower strike. Just some light trading in this weird market.
I think we could get a bounce here because ES and RTY MFI are oversold. Yields are exploding again and FDAX looks bearish so we may get a gap down tomorrow anyways.
TSLA earnings tonight. Focus should be on bankrupt companies, not gonna play the bigger companies.
Opened (Margin): IWM 144/154/182/192 Iron Condor... for a 3.34 credit.
Comments: (Late Post). Another "synthetic short strangle" I put on on Friday, with the short legs set up around the 25 delta, the longs out from there to obtain a 50% ROC at max metric. 3.34 credit on buying power effect of 6.66; 50.2% at max; 25.1% at 50% max.
Will primarily look to roll paired legs (short call/long put, short put/long call) to delta balance. For example, the short call finished the day in .52/$52 worth of profit, the long put .43/$43, so I would look to roll the short call and long put down simultaneously to lock in that realized gain and to delta balance.
TOP WAVE STRUCTURE I am still in 100 % CASH > I loved how we held my 3578 .But I am ok with letting this trade show itself >I hit my min target 3511/3490 into the time cycle >BUT I need to see Mr Market show me the MONEY still have to get past the 20/22 then I will be happy . Best of trades ! WAVETIMER
10/16/22 SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF ( NASDAQ:SMH )
Sector: Miscellaneous (Investment Trusts/Mutual Funds)
Market Capitalization: $ --
Current Price: $173.15
Breakdown price (hold below): $173.40
Sell Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $185.00-$211.50
Price Target: $139.80-$134.50 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 60-64d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $SMH 12/16/22 165p
Trade price as of publish date: $8.95/contract
10/16/22 TSLATesla, Inc. ( NASDAQ:TSLA )
Sector: Consumer Durables (Motor Vehicles)
Market Capitalization: $642.33B
Current Price: $204.99
Breakdown price: $207.50
Sell Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $211.25-$255.00
Price Target: $182.80-$186.00 (1st), $83.80-$78.40 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 14-17d (1st), 123-129d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $TSLA 11/18/22 200p, 2/17/23 180p
Trade price as of publish date: $16.05/contract, $20.10/contract
10/16/22 IONSIonis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ( NASDAQ:IONS )
Sector: Health Technology (Pharmaceuticals: Major)
Current Price: $46.36
Breakout price trigger: $47.85
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $44.65-$39.75
Price Target: $55.50-$56.30
Estimated Duration to Target: 131-139d
Contract of Interest: $IONS 1/20/23 50c
Trade price as of publish date: $3.20/cnt
QQQ WHY THE 258/259 AREA IS SO IMPORTATNT .382 AND 50 % So what is next and why the support at 258/259 is why it is the point of focus in this CRASH . it is a pullback of 50 % from 2020 low to the peak . but more important it is a .382 within the super blowoff that ENDED AT 408.71 RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE LONG TERM TARGET 406 TO 410 SEE DEC 2021 .So so many what to jump to the long side as we hit the target in time and targets in price the low was 254.9 just taking out the support but not in the sp almost to the tick it help 3490/3511 . I am and have been counting this as a super cycle top and will maintain that we had wave A from the peak at 408.71 down to the june low .And that we rallied in a perfect abc back up into the major spiral turn aug 16 to the 25 th for super cycle wave B we now have five waves down in wave 1 . I stated in in 8/16 this is the time we will see the market up here before we Crash in super cycle wave C low . wave 2 up has begun but if you think wave 2 up is going to be for a few weeks Think again . in every crash since 1902 the wave 2 of c is so quick you got TRAPPED with the rest the next decline is the CRASH and it will not bottom till 196 to 164 once it starts . So do you feel luck or Smart most of you I know will be feeling Lucky that why I make money and you seem to always which you did not make the mistake that you seem to not be able to stop . That is because I was a New york fireman before starting wavetimer . why does this matter it is the way my brain works I learned from two traders who were one a marine and one an ex navy seal . what do we all three have in common it is the being able to control our fear to stay alive and over come the natural fear of flight .I am no smarter than the next I just process it in a different way . best of trades Wavetimer !
updated nyse chart target for panic lows oct 2022Final low is in DEC at 8909/9223 I am working on the spirals still from past I will have that within this week . The chart posted is that of the NYSE I use this over all to give me a much clearer view as it is ALL the data . in 1987 panic the market dropped to a near perfect .382 from peak to low oct 1932 . and then again in 2009 the drop from 2000 to 2002 times 1.618 gave us the low .Then again in march 23/2020 from the peak in 2020 to the 1974 low a perfect .382 drop to the low . . I am of the view we will return to the level of the 4TH wave which is the march 23 low 2020 soon . Best of trades WAVETIMER ! I am 75 % net short see posts and aug 16/25 turn . or you should be in 100 % cash and should remain until US $ reaches 128 area . Most of you just want to H>O>P>E> that we will be off to the races after this low. I can tell you based on the debt cycle and after a 40 year bull market in expansion of debt that just started a long term BEAR MARKET . I have stated for the record we will see a P/E of lower that 14 and unemployment to see well above 6.3 % I stated by year end if I am off it will be by march 2023
updated NYSE PANIC AND TARGET OCT 4TH/20TH 10781/9609 Final low is in DEC at 8909/9223 I am working on the spirals still from past I will have that within this week . The chart posted is that of the NYSE I use this over all to give me a much clearer view as it is ALL the data . in 1987 panic the market dropped to a near perfect .382 from peak to low oct 1932 . and then again in 2009 the drop from 2000 to 2002 times 1.618 gave us the low .Then again in march 23/2020 from the peak in 2020 to the 1974 low a perfect .382 drop to the low . . I am of the view we will return to the level of the 4TH wave which is the march 23 low 2020 soon . Best of trades WAVETIMER ! I am 75 % net short see posts and aug 16/25 turn . or you should be in 100 % cash and should remain until US $ reaches 128 area . Most of you just want to H>O>P>E> that we will be off to the races after this low. I can tell you based on the debt cycle and after a 40 year bull market in expansion of debt that just started a long term BEAR MARKET . I have stated for the record we will see a P/E of lower that 14 and unemployment to see well above 6.3 % I stated by year end if I am off it will be by march 2023
10/5/22 RVNCRevance Therapeutics, Inc.( NASDAQ:RVNC )
Sector: Health Technology (Pharmaceuticals: Major)
Market Capitalization: $2.124B
Current Price: $29.17
Breakout price: $30.00
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $27.45-$24.15
Price Target: $41.10-$42.00
Estimated Duration to Target: 132-142d
Contract of Interest: $RVNC 1/20/23 30c
Trade price as of publish date: $3.70/contract
10/5/22 CEGConstellation Energy Corporation ( NASDAQ:CEG )
Sector: Utilities (Electric Utilities)
Market Capitalization: $29.200B
Current Price: $88.17
Breakout price: $89.45
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $86.80-$82.45
Price Target: $93.20-$95.00
Estimated Duration to Target: 21-23d
Contract of Interest: $CEG 11/18/22 95c
Trade price as of publish date: $3.00/contract
10/5/22 LVSLas Vegas Sands Corp. ( NYSE:LVS )
Sector: Consumer Services (Casinos/Gaming)
Market Capitalization: $32.568B
Current Price: $42.62
Breakout price: $43.00
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $39.70-$36.20
Price Target: $47.40-$48.60
Estimated Duration to Target: 66.72d
Contract of Interest: $LVS 12/16/22 45c
Trade price as of publish date: $3.20/contract