Get started

IWM

Stocks can go higher, but how much higher?I will start by sharing a Twitter poll, which shows the sentiment we are seeing now. Most think we are going lower. Therefore, the market could go higher in the short term. twitter.com I believe our target is the critical breakdown level that was never retested on the chart above. The maximum upside is the R3 Monthly Pivot + Yearly Pivot, which will most likely reject the price. Recession or no recession, the market has room to the upside for reasons different from what most people think. Won't get into these things here, as I want to keep this idea simply about the key targets I have for stocks. For Nasdaq, it is hard to tell how high we will go as there is more than one target. For the S&P500 and the Russell below, the targets are very clear. However, for QQQ - NDX - NQ, more than one gap must be filled. Based on the above, I expect the market to top about 6% higher from here, and potentially as much as 10% for the Nasdaq 100.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BitcoinMacro
Russel2000 Bear Case.Good evening, This post is part of a series of requests i recently received. The request was: "What is your bearish projection on the US stonk market". --- The russel2000, if I'm not mistaken - has thousands of small-cap stocks within it, here's my bearish projection for it. --- My estimated top for the russel2000 = $1876 ~ $2392 High probability target = $2036 --- My estimated bottom on this one is roughly between $1527 ~ $1163 High probability target = $1324 🔺
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by notoriousbids
NYSE Index Bear Case.Good evening, This post is part of a series of requests i recently received. The request was: "What is your bearish projection on the US stonk market". --- Some may ask, what is the NYSE Index? 👇 The NYSE Composite is a stock market index covering all common stock listed on the New York Stock Exchange, including American depositary receipts, real estate investment trusts, tracking stocks, and foreign listings. --- My estimated top for the New York Stock Exchange Index sits at $15,546 ~ $18,545 High probability target = $16,600 --- My estimated bottom on this one is roughly between $12,293 ~ $10,064 High probability target = $11,319 --- 🔺
TVC:NYA
by notoriousbids
Let's learn about flats.good evening, in preparation for my next few bear posts, i'd like to talk about the three different types of flats in the markets. the main reason why i'm bringing this up right now, is because the USA Indexes are displaying all three of these patterns currently, so it's important to familiarize yourself with these fractals, for future references. feel free to share this with your peoples if you find it helpful. --- regular flats : • A corrective 3 waves move labelled as ABC • Subdivision of wave A and B is in 3 waves • Subdivision of wave C is in 5 waves impulse / diagonal • Subdivision of wave A and B can be in any corrective 3 waves structure including zigzag, flat, double three, triple three • Wave B terminates near the start of wave A • Wave C generally terminates slightly beyond the end of wave A • Wave C needs to have momentum divergence Fibonacci Ratio Relationship • Wave B = 90% of wave A • Wave C = 61.8%, 100%, or 123.6% of wave AB --- expanded flats • A corrective 3 waves move labelled as ABC • Subdivision of wave A and B is in 3 waves • Subdivision of wave C is in 5 waves impulse / diagonal • Subdivision of wave A and B can be in any corrective 3 waves structure including zigzag, flat, double three, triple three • Wave B of the 3-3-5 pattern terminates beyond the starting level of wave A • Wave C ends substantially beyond the ending level of wave A • Wave C needs to have momentum divergence Fibonacci Ratio Relationship • Wave B = 123.6% of wave A • Wave C = 123.6% – 161.8% of wave AB --- running flats • A corrective 3 waves move labelled as ABC • Subdivision of wave A and B is in 3 waves • Subdivision of wave C is in 5 waves impulse / diagonal • Subdivision of wave A and B can be in any corrective 3 waves structure including zigzag, flat, double three, triple three • Wave B of the 3-3-5 pattern terminates substantially beyond the starting level of wave A as in an expanded flat • Wave C fails travel the full distance, falling short of the level where wave A ended • Wave C needs to have momentum divergence Fibonacci Ratio Relationship • Wave B = 123.6% of wave A • Wave C = 61.8% – 100% of wave AB --- -- full credit to elliottwaveforecast for all of these guidelines
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by notoriousbids
Opening (IRA): IWM December 23rd 156 Short Put... for a 1.67 credit. Comments: Targeting the <16 strike in the expiry nearest 45 days paying around 1% of the strike price in credit. This is more about not letting my IWM position get too short delta than about putting on an "ideal" premium selling trade. I still have an IWM short delta hedge on that is marking at around -60 delta (See Post Below) and had only one IWM short put rung on at the December 16th 164 (+23 delta at the moment), so the position was leaning more net delta short than I would like. This long delta additive trade will make my IWM position "net delta flatter."
AMEX:IWMLong
by NaughtyPines
IWM / SMALL CAPS - STRONGEST MARKETI have a few observations on the market from last week and going on to this week. Something to note, I'm looking at the WEEKLY chart and have a longer time horizon. This is very intentional. I want to demonstrate that PRIOR to any major market move, BOTH bulls and bears will get shaken out. It is very naive to assume that you can have a strong directional bias and only see a straight line upwards in your P/L. Focusing on a smaller timeframe will result in some serious shake-outs on both ends of the market. Therefore, taking a step back and being able to see the larger picture can very much help tame emotions and see things for what they really are. Unfortunately, this is a rare character trait of the vast majority of market participants. As of the close of last week: Small caps are the strongest area of the stock market. While Nasdaq, S&P and the Dow Jones broke below their prior June lows, Small Caps HAVEN'T. See for yourself. Even though the overall trend is DOWN, this is a major signal to keep an eye on. Small caps tend to lead in the breakdowns and breakouts. Big directional moves inside a consolidation zone are not trading signals. The news on 10/13, Thursday, caused a big sell-off that was followed by a massive rally. Everyone on financial TV and social media was calling bottoms, reversals and quoting statistics. Nonetheless a one-day move doesn't mean anything without a major trend change - which takes TIME (and patience) to develop. The following day, Friday, gave back most of Thursday's gains. Here's the point - this type of price action is very normal in a sideways consolidations market. All big moves INSIDE A CONSOLIDATION ZONE can be easily faded in both directions. The June rally took SIX WEEKS to build up. Using that as an example (NOT PREDICTION), we can spend a few more weeks in this sideways chop and that would be totally okay. A fake-out move in either direction would not surprise me I've donated far too much money to the market by "going all in" on break-out trades. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see a major breakout with an immediate reversal in the opposite direction. Moral of the story here is to wait for confirmation. A small position is a MUST on all breakouts, since the most powerful breakouts rarely come back to test the breakout level and we don't want to miss out on such opportunities. However, such breakouts are RARE and therefore capital preservation and risk management should be our HIGHEST & #1 PRIORITY. PERSONAL VIEW I still lean more bullish in the short-term (2-6 months), even with last week's wreck in the rest of the indices. There's too much negativity in the market among other factors. If my personal experience and observations after many years serves me well, such environment can sooner or later become ripe for a major squeeze. You don't want to fade that train. Mid/Long-term, I'm leaning bearish for another major leg down. We'll need a good rally first to entice all the bulls back into the market. When you start seeing news about "the bottom is in" or "new highs" statistics, BEWARE! BIBLE VERSE OF THE WEEK "Unless the LORD builds a house, the work of the builders is wasted. Unless the LORD protects a city, guarding it with sentries will do no good." Psalm 127:1
OANDA:US2000USDLong
by andremkv
1
Closed (IRA): IWM December 16th 145 Short Put... for a .76 debit. Comments: (Late Post). Collected a total of 2.11 in credits. (See Post Below). Out today for a .76 debit. 1.35 ($135) profit. This leaves me with two rungs -- the November 18th 163 (currently 14 delta) and the November 18th 173 (currently 33 delta), for a total of 44 long delta. Both of these are hedged off with a long put vertical in IWM (See Post Below), which is currently marking at -74 delta. I'll be rolling out the short leg of the diagonal tomorrow, which will decrease the short delta slightly, after which I will look to see whether I should add back in IWM long delta to make sure that I'm not too short/directional in this position. (33 long - 74 short = -41 delta). As part of this consideration, I also need to look at my portfolio delta as a whole to see whether it's okay to keep the IWM position net delta short, since it enjoys a close correlation with SPY (.95 3-month). Since it kind of drives me slightly bonkers to leave positions skewed out (regardless of whether they can do double duty as a closely correlated broad market hedge), I'll probably end up adding some long delta back in.
AMEX:IWM
by NaughtyPines