IWM
IWM if you lose 160's If you lose the support and bottom made today during the sell-off. Then i see no real help maybe just a pit stop at 150 ranges before ending up in the 140's.
HOWEVER, it looks like support has held and we should be getting close to seller's exhaustion. I'm looking for a bounce back towards 175 range but not to exceeed 190 before running into overhead R.
9/28/22 XBISPDR S&P Biotech ETF ( AMEX:XBI )
Sector: Miscellaneous (Investment Trusts/Mutual Funds)
Market Capitalization: $ --
Current Price: $81.20
Breakout price: $84.40
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $80.50-$74.75
Price Target: $99.10-$100.80
Estimated Duration to Target: 75-81d
Contract of Interest: $XBI 12/16/22 85c
Trade price as of publish date: $5.40/contract
9/28/22 ALBAlbemarle Corporation ( NYSE:ALB )
Sector: Process Industries (Chemicals: Specialty)
Market Capitalization: $31.587B
Current Price: $277.95
Breakout price: $297.50
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $275.50-$250.30
Price Target: $364.40-$369.30 (3rd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 152-162d (3rd)
Contract of Interest: $ALB 3/17/23 320c
Trade price as of publish date: $32.20/contract
9/28/22 SBUXStarbucks Corporation ( NASDAQ:SBUX )
Sector: Consumer Services (Restaurants)
Market Capitalization: 96.703B
Current Price: $87.11
Breakout price: $90.30
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $86.30-$81.55
Price Target: $106.60-$108.40
Estimated Duration to Target: 65-71d
Contract of Interest: $SBUX 12/16/22 92.5c
Trade price as of publish date: $3.50/contract
9/28/22 CALXCalix, Inc ( NYSE:CALX )
Sector: Electronic Technology (Telecommunications Equipment)
Market Capitalization: $3.937B
Current Price: $62.44
Breakout Price: $63.20
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $59.30-$55.05
Price Target: $69.40-$71.20 (1st), $80.40-$82.00 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 31-33d (1st), 76-79d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $CALX 11/18/22 65c, $CALX 1/20/23 70c
Trade price as of publish date: $4.80/contract, $5.10/contract
Update (IRA): IWM Sept 30th 177/Nov 18th 200 Long Put DiagonalComments: Just updating my short delta hedge (See Post Below) in IWM so that it appears more toward the top of my ideas queue ... . As of the last short leg roll: Cost basis of 22.58 with a 177.42 break even on a 23 wide.
As you can see, price has pushed up quite a bit into the long leg of the setup, but I'll keep rolling the short leg out to reduce cost basis and look to roll the long leg up and out if I run out of time and/or don't get the move I need (i.e., back through the short leg of the setup; this may be somewhat of a tall order at this point, that's 18 strikes below where IWM is currently trading). At the moment, doing this would cost me (and will probably cost me when I actually go ahead and do it). For example, rolling the November 18th 200 long to the December 16th 230 (90 delta), would cost 28.69 at the mid price, increasing my cost basis to 51.27 on a resulting 53 wide with a 178.73 break even (a slight improvement over my current 177.42 break even).
I've still got 7 potential rolling opportunities of the short leg from week to week, so will cross that bridge when I come to it ... .
SPX, find support in a Regression ChannelSPX daily chart with long term Regression channel, 3405 days, with +3/-3 stdev bands. The Comfort Zone is the reddish area located between +2 and 2 stdev, where at least 95% of price occurrences should occur.
This chart shows that the uptrend that started on June 16 failed to break above the +1 stdev line. The mean served as support and allowed a small bounce that failed at +0.5 stdev, retraces and the mean and this time the mean fails to serve as support.
Last Friday it closed at the -1 stdev line. This fact coupled with the extreme reading of some indicators point to an immediate rebound of the SPX. There is too much technical damage on the chart to augur a long life for any rally that starts now. However, we expect the SPX to move higher in the coming days, a trading opportunity.
Decision weekWe have no new low on daily basis, no new low on weekly basis, but we could get one on monthly basis. SPY have to rally to 377,25 to prevent this. Next week. IWM and QQQ are similar.
DJI has already a daily and a weekly low.
XTN leads to the downside, not a good signal.
Can dollar and yields hold this pace or will they turn?
Maybe a bull/bear battle at the June monthly lows, but therefore it needs rising prices early next week.
We will see, decision week is coming...
Status: Porfolio UP 80%+ since 8/18 Post ..What's Next?Before: In my last post on 8/18 that it would be time for me to go heavy in the market, which I did.
Now: Up 80.45% on my portfolio since my huge short on $SPY and other adjacent tickers $QQQ, $IWM, $AAPL, etc. Could not have rode this move better.
Next: I'm out on a 90%+ shorts and would suggest trimming aggressively now in anticipation for a rally within the next few days. Will update on my thoughts of what's to come.
..there's so much frenzy in the markets, but your porfolio's got to feel good now 💸
9/18/22 DISThe Walt Disney Company ( NYSE:DIS )
Sector: Consumer Services (Cable/Satellite TV)
Market Capitalization: $197.346B
Current Price: $108.25
Breakdown Price: $107.15
Sell Zone: $120.75-$113.75
Price Target: $90.90-$89.70 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 77-82d
Contract of Interest: $DIS 12/16/22 110p
Trade price as of publish date: $8.25/contract
9/18/22 LNGCheniere Energy ( AMEX:LNG )
Sector: Industrial Services (Oil & Gas Pipelines)
Market Capitalization: $41.776B
Current Price: $167.25
Breakout Price: $172.15
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $164.15-$151.00
Price Target: $195.90-$197.30
Estimated Duration to Target: 56-59d
Contract of Interest: $LNG 12/16/22 170c
Trade price as of publish date: $13.90/contract
9/18/22 HRBH&R Block, Inc. ( NYSE:HRB )
Sector: Consumer Services (Other Consumer Services)
Market Capitalization: $7.186B
Current Price: $44.93
Breakout Price: $47.10
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $44.40-$38.80
Price Target: $62.40-$64.20
Estimated Duration to Target: 152-161d
Contract of Interest: $HRB 3/17/23 45c
Trade price as of publish date: $4.65/contract
9/18/22 GSGoldman Sachs Group, Inc. ( NYSE:GS )
Sector: Finance (Investment Banks/Brokers)
Market Capitalization: $112.036B
Current Price: $326.21
Breakout Price: $335.15
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $325.35-$306.65
Price Target: $361.40-$363.50
Estimated Duration to Target: 60-63d
Contract of Interest: $GS 11/18/22 330c
Trade price as of publish date: $15.45/contract
Rolled (IRA): IWM September 30th 178 to November 18th 173... for a 2.02 credit.
Comments: (Late Post). Rolled this out late on Friday so that I can be out of September contracts, as well as reduce buying power effect and cost basis.
Credits collected of 1.80 (See Post Below) plus 2.02 for a total of 3.82.
Rolled (IRA): IWM October 1st 161 to the November 18th 163... short put for a 1.10 credit.
Comments (Late Post): Rolled this out at >50% max to the strike in November paying around 1% of the strike price in credit. I might usually just take profit and close this out, but still need small cap long delta for a bit here while I manage my IWM short delta hedge. Total credits collected of 1.62 (See Post Below) plus the 1.10 here for a total of 2.72 relative to a price for the November 18th 163 of 1.71, so I've realized gains of 1.01 ($101) to date.
9/11/22 NFLXNetflix, Inc ( NASDAQ:NFLX )
Sector: Technology Services (Internet Software/Services)
Market Capitalization: $103.870B
Current Price: $233.57
Breakout price trigger: $236.60
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $232.30-$211.85
Price Target: $246.60-$250.60 (1st), $298.20-$304.00 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 13-15d (1st), 54-57d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $NFLX 9/23/22 235c, $NFLX 11/18/22 240c
Trade price as of publish date: $8.00/contract, $20.95/contract
9/11/22 NUENucor Corporation ( NYSE:NUE )
Sector: Non-Energy Minerals (Steel)
Market Capitalization: 37.582B
Current Price: $143.56
Breakout price: $144.60
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $142.30-$134.95
Price Target: $152.50-$154.60
Estimated Duration to Target: 18-20d
Contract of Interest: $NUE 10/21/22 145c
Trade price as of publish date: $7.65/contract