8/17/22 QCOMQUALCOMM Incorporated ( NASDAQ:QCOM )
Sector: Electric Technology (Telecommunications Equipment)
Market Capitalization: $166.799B
Current Price: $148.53
Breakout price trigger: $151.35
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $146.80-$141.25
Price Target: $164.20-$165.30
Estimated Duration to Target: 32-35d
Contract of Interest: $QCOM 9/16/22 150c
Trade price as of publish date: $4.75/contract
IWM
IWM: Bear is taking over#Ticker Symbol: IWM
#Timeframe: 4 Hour
#4X Bear Pattern
#Investment Strategy: short
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
----- Closed below 21ema -----
-----Money Divergence--------
-----RED Dot(9ema Crossover) with Red Line: Bearish
-----Rejection of 200ma on Daily Time Frame
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RTY Almost oversoldI still don't think that was the top, looks to me like we get another pump when RTY MFI gets oversold.
Was busy timing my AMC play, lol. Dumped on the gap fill overshoot and just re-entered, figured it wasn't gonna go down more than a buck. Might wind up being a day trade, planning on bailing if teh market doesn;t kick up after the Euro markets close.
Seems to me like small caps went a little overboard on sell, but the Euros finally dumped so there could be another gap down tomorrow.
RTY UpdateThe melt up and short squeeze continues. I have it continuing until next Tuesday when RTY hits the resistance zone.
I don't normally play melt ups but bought some AMC calls for kicks and giggles on the dips this morning. If the market is acting stupid, then you need to be stupid too, lol. The only way to make money is to go with the flow.
Prediction is up tomorrow, a dip Thu and Friday open, then full pumptardedness until Tuesday.
SPY Weekly review and Forecast: August 15th, 2022 The Summer rally continued this week on the back of strong earnings by Disney ($DIS) and the market interpreting CPI data as inflation cooling. However, I think the market internals are telling a more important story. This week, the market paced by the financials... on Thursday, the XLF tested the upper edge of its weekly expected move and ultimately broke outside of it on Friday, leading to a textbook end of week Gamma squeeze. Below is a snapshot of this past week's action (percentage gains/losses, expected moves for the upcoming week) and some ideas about what we may see in the coming week.
SPY +1.69% (+/-7.65)
QQQ +1.95% (+/- 9.33)
IWM +2.04% (+/- 5.06)
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Technology +1.99%
Energy +0.76%
Financials +1.57%
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VIX: -3.32% (19.52; ~30% IV Percentile)
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Next week has some potentially market moving events like PMI (Tuesday), and GDP (Thursday), as well as a few other data drops scattered throughout the week. The SPY closed within a point of the intermediate level of 428 I added last week. The rally has been fierce, so I have to wonder how much higher it might go before we see some kind of a pull back. Rather than try and guess what the action is going to be like, I think the XLF is holding the cards. Its at a key area on possible resistance on it's Daily Volume Profile... a meaningful break above will likely drag the rest of the market up to 440. If it rejects, it will likely lead to a pull back in the broader market. Also worth noting, SKEW continues to rise, signaling that a bout of volatility could be looming.
Opening (Margin): IWM September 30th 178 Short Put... for a 1.80 credit.
Comments: Not a great place or a great IV environment to be doing this, but looking to offset some of my IWM short delta. Previously, I did a covered call, but I don't need that much long delta here at the moment, so am doing a lower delta out-of-the-money short put and will add at intervals if necessary. Delta/theta 15.18/5.
8/10/22 TTDThe Trade Desk, Inc. ( NASDAQ:TTD )
Sector: Commercial Services (Advertising/Marketing Services)
Current Price: $74.24
Breakout price trigger: $75.90
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $67.20-$59.00
Price Target: $83.60-$85.80, $95.80-$100.60
Estimated Duration to Target: 41-45d (1st), 83-88D (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $TTD 9/16/22 75c, $TTD 10/21/22 90c
Trade price as of publish date: $6.05/contract, $3.25/contract
8/10/22 URAGlobal X Uranium ETF ( AMEX:URA )
Sector: Miscellaneous (Investments Trusts/Mutual Funds)
Market Capitalization: $ --
Current Price: $21.60
Breakout Price: $21.80
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $21.45-$19.85
Price Target: $22.80-$23.20 (1st), $25.90-$26.50 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 30-32d (1st), 99-106d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $URA 9/16/22 22c, $URA 10/21/22 22c
Trade price as of publish date: $1.05/contract, $1.50/contract
8/10/22 ZSZscaler Inc ( NASDAQ:ZS )
Sector: Technology Services (Packaged Software)
Market Capitalization: $23.182B
Current Price: $180.41
Breakout Price: $186.75
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $169.90-$144.00
Price Target: $218.00-$224.00 (1st)
Estimated Duration to Target: 54-57d
Contract of Interest: $ZS 10/21/22 180c
Trade price as of publish date: $21.25/contract
8/10/22 AMCAMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:AMC )
Sector: Consumer Services (Movies/Entertainment)
Market Capitalization: $12.233B
Current Price: $23.67
Breakout Price: $27.00
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $20.60-$14.20
Price Target: $33.00-$34.20 (1st), $40.60-$42.30 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 23-25d, 47-50d
Contract of Interest: $AMC 9/2/22 25c, $AMC 9/16/22 25c
Trade price as of publish date: $3.55/contract, $4.25/contract
Bearish on Russell 2000 ETF. IWMGoals 0.56, 0.49. Invalidation at 0.89.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe
Another false breakout for the Russell 2000?The Russell 2000 has been prone to false breakouts since last fall as the index rallied to all time highs then failed at the end of 2021. The move from Monday/Tuesday of this week could set up the same fate for the index especially if the highly anticipated #CPI data comes in hotter than expected. You can also see that the November 2021, March 2022 and highs this week marked a turn in RSI as well. Tomorrow's data should have a strong impact on the index.
$IWM 280 by end of 2024?Market starting to show signs of a final melt up ? Just offering this bull case, of course we could certainly see 120 before 280, but 200 weekly MA has offered support in the past followed by strong moves up, less 2008 financial crisis and 2020 covid crash.
So I guess real question for the bear case would be - what is the black swan event ? Because for certain Inflation, war , etc. are just headwinds. A true BLACK SWAN EVENT is needed it seems.. what will it be then ?
My bias is long ... for now :)
$ARKK Finally a buy ? ARKK - The bearish sentiment and hate against miss Cathie Wood is pretty strong as her flagship ARKK fund has gone from a high of $160 to low $35 this past week, nearly erasing ALL gains and now total 5 year return in line with the market at 13.8%. If you're a contrarian, you love the idea of going long here.
I prefer technical and price action which as of now I think ARKK has a good R/R and am looking for a trade to $55 price target in the near term.
- Huge volume last week as sellers appear to be exhausting and a bullish hammer candle
- Currently at FOUR year support line
- RSI in over sold zone
- PT 55 coincides nicely with 10weeklyMA at 56
- Even in bear markets we see upside rallies (another opportunity to short)
This is a trade idea, as a longer term investor I'd be waiting for a solid base and breakout above 30wkMA, and I still see any bull rally in this name as another opportunity to go short.
Further downside is limited and favor the risk return down here.
Let's see :)
SPY Weekly review and Forecast: August 8th, 2022This week's action was largely defined by two dynamics: Employment data, and sector rotation.
After initially selling off on Friday after the Employment data drop, the market reversed course and rallied much of the day before ultimately finishing slightly down on the session. Despite trade being predominantly sideways in an 80 point range, the market extended it's rally and finished up on the week. The range was the result of the aforementioned sector rotation. Tech moved into the leadership role as Eneregy, which had been leading the rally, sold off considerably. Stuck in the middle were the financials.
Before looking ahead, here's a snapshot of last weeks numbers, and expected moves for the upcoming week:
SPY +1% (+/- 8.81)
QQQ +2.6% (+/- 9.33)
IWM +2.7% (+/- 4.96)
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Technology +2.8%
Energy -5.1%
Financials +0.8%
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VIX: -0.84% (21.14; ~25% IV Percentile)
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Heading into next week, the market is maintaining a fairly resilient - if not strong posture. There will be a smattering of earnings from small/midsized companies throughout the week, and a potential market moving event with CPI data being released on Wednseday. A natural question to ask is when volatility will find a bottom and make a return. Nevertheless, the market looks posied to finish Q3 strong. I've updated the SPY chart to include an intermediate upside target of 425, which is very much in play heading into September. There is reason to be cautious however, as SKEW is potentially throwing out warning signs as it finished the week with its highest print in nearly 3 months.
Opening (IRA): IWM September 2nd 196 Covered Callfor an 187.73 debit.
Comments: Since I've got IWM short delta hedge still hanging out there and no remaining IWM short puts to offset, doing a heavy long delta covered call (it's 67.48 long delta). Will look to roll out the short call (currently marking at 2.42) at 50% max to a similarly delta'd strike at or above my cost basis.
From a price action standpoint, this isn't the greatest spot to "go long," so may not be suitable as a standalone trade unless you're the patient sort who is fine with reducing cost basis over time via roll of the short call and over (potentially) larger time frames.
8/3/22 CFLTConfluent, Inc. ( NASDAQ:CFLT )
Sector: Technology Services (Packaged Software)
Market Capitalization: $8.079B
Current Price: $29.02
Breakout Price: $31.00
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $27.65-$19.45
Price Target: $33.50-$36.30 (1st), $45.10-$49.20 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 26-29d, 73-76d
Contract of Interest: $CFLT 8/19/22 30c, $CFLT 10/21/22 35c
Trade price as of publish date: $2.55/contract, $2.60/contract
8/3/22 MRNAModerna, Inc. ( NASDAQ:MRNA )
Sector: Health Technology (Biotechnology)
Market Capitalization: $74.178B
Current Price: $186.49
Breakout Price: $189.50
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $180.95-$147.05
Price Target: $204.50-$208.80 (1st), $258.80-$263.70 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 34-37d, 91-96d
Contract of Interest: $MRNA 9/16/22 190c, $MRNA 10/21/22 200c
Trade price as of publish date: $13.96/contract, $15.55/contract
8/3/22 RUNSunrun Inc. ( NASDAQ:RUN )
Sector: Utilities (Alternative Power Generation)
Market Capitalization: $6.459B
Current Price: $30.74
Breakout Price: $34.25
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $28.80-$19.50
Price Target: $36.00-$37.30 (1st), $48.70-$49.60 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 21-22d, 84-88d
Contract of Interest: $RUN 8/19/22 35c, $RUN 10/21/22 35c
Trade price as of publish date: $0.93/contract, $3.05/contract