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IWM

SPY Weekly review and forecast: August 22, 2022Last week brought the first sell side activity the markets have seen in nearly 6 weeks. The market digested comments within the FED minutes as being dovish, and was on track to extend the rally through most of the week. The tone changed on Thursday and Friday and the market was unable to hold the 4300 level. Most of the selling was precipitated by technology and the financials, while energy finished positive on the week. Volatility has also begun to expand as the VIX finished positive on the week. The weekly expected move in the SPY is also greater than last week's by almost a full point. SKEW closed flat-to-down week over week, but is still in an uptrend. SPY -1.16% (+/- 8.3) QQQ -2.28% (+/- 8.89) IWM -2.85 (+/- 4.97) ____________________ Technology -2.5% (+/- 4.09) Energy +1.26 (+/- 1.26) Financials -1.69% (+/- 0.83) ____________________ VIX: +12.19% (23.07; ~50% IV Percentile) _____________________ The rally we've seen since June has been impressive, so a pull back was going to come eventually. Its important to zoom out and look at the big picture perspective. The market may have re-entered the sideways channel I outlined at the beginning of the month. I'm looking for this week to have a mildly bearish bias, but most probably staying within the expected move in advance of the FED's Jackson Hole meeting (so think between 4150 - 4300 in SPX). I'm going to be keeping a close eye on the Bonds as well as Energy. If the Bonds continue to fall, it will be more fuel on the inflation fire. With regards to energy, stocks like XOM are at key inflection points on their Volume Profiles; selling in energy now would weigh heavily on the indices.
AMEX:SPY
by InnerMotionTrading
Opening (IRA): IWM July 15th 165/November 18th 200 LPD*... for a 29.95/contract debit. Comments: Erecting a short delta hedge specifically against my IWM longs here, tailored to my specific delta needs, so I've gone with selling the front month 50 and buying the back month 90 for -40 or so delta per contract. (The math just worked out better with multiples of -40 versus multiples of -60; call me delta anal). I've already done a little bit of portfolio-wide SPY beta-weighted delta hedging here using SPY, but wanted to flatten out net delta a smidge further, particularly in my IWM position. 170.05 break even, paying 29.95 on a 35 wide with a max profit potential of 5.05 ($505)/contract. Generally speaking, you want to address delta imbalances on an instrument by instrument basis first and then look at your portfolio-wide net delta to see if anything additional needs to be done (usually via a broad market, SPY beta-weighted short delta hedge). To a certain extent, this is why you always want to keep some dry powder around -- to adjust your delta on either a per-position or a portfolio-wide basis, some of which may or may not be buying power free. * -- Long put diagonal.
AMEX:IWMShort
by NaughtyPines
$SPY - Switching to a Heavy ShortI've been talking about the market rallying upwards in my previous posts since June/July, and finally it's time for me to go short ( heavy ) in this market. :-) We've had strong #DP prints at these high levels that lead me to believe buyers are scaling out of their positions if not completely out. The flows have been consistent over the past couple of weeks with heavy Put flow today. We've been experiencing hard resistance this week, and re-testing it as the #FOMO fueled market drives upwards. At the most, I'm anticipating for a #bullish fake out if we do see more upside movement in the market. Reiterating my belief that we're far from the 2-2.5% #inflation and events like the spending bills passing will only serve to aggravate inflation. I've been keeping my expectations on where I feel the market will likely trend. This time around, I see us making a new low in the next 6-12 months if not sooner this upcoming fall.
AMEX:SPYShort
by theapearmy