8/3/22 RUNSunrun Inc. ( NASDAQ:RUN )
Sector: Utilities (Alternative Power Generation)
Market Capitalization: $6.459B
Current Price: $30.74
Breakout Price: $34.25
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $28.80-$19.50
Price Target: $36.00-$37.30 (1st), $48.70-$49.60 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 21-22d, 84-88d
Contract of Interest: $RUN 8/19/22 35c, $RUN 10/21/22 35c
Trade price as of publish date: $0.93/contract, $3.05/contract
IWM
8/3/22 AMZNAmazon.com, Inc. ( NASDAQ:AMZN )
Sector: Retail Trade (Internet Retail)
Market Capitalization: $1.420T
Current Price: $139.52
Breakout Price: $140.70
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $129.20-$113.70
Price Target: $143.70-$146.00 (2nd), $154.00-$156.10 (3rd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 23-26d, 54-59d
Contract of Interest: $AMZN 8/26/22 145c, $AMZN 9/16/22 145c
Trade price as of publish date: $2.75/contract, $4.40/contract
SOFI - Post ER chart set upKey Levels:
- Key Level of 6.75
- If key level can hold support my next resistance target is 6.9 then 7.25 followed by a push to 8
- If key level cannot hold support my next bounce area is 6.55 near the daily 50ema
- Earnings Released with increased forecast and revenue numbers.
- Broke 7 in AH, looking for another break of 7 for more upside tomorrow.
- Small caps/growth stocks on fire right now, with ER out of the way we can see clear skies ahead for SOFI.
SPX Weekly review and forecast: August 1, 2022Last week, the markets saw a strong move to the upside with the SPX closing just shy of 4150 (4133). The move was largely fueled by FED chair Jerome Powell's comments, as well as strong earnings out of mega market cap stocks such as AAPL and AMZN. AMZN rallied +17.5% on the week and is up a whopping +32% from its low on June 13th. A similar story for AAPL, which is up +8.3% WoW and +25% since June 13. Joining the party, energy stocks like XOM reported very strong profits which vaulted the XLE higher. So far, the primary thesis of a bullish continuation being powered by energy (XLE) and technology (XLK) has come to fruition. The question, of course, is how long it will last - but first, a snapshot of last week's action:
SPX: +5.2%
Nasdaq: +6.8%
Russell: +4.5%
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Technology (XLK): +7.5%
Energy (XLE): +9%
Financials (XLF): +3.9%
Looking ahead to next week, the SPX is poised to retest the price zone between 4100 - 4200 which proved to be considerable resistance back on early June. The probabilities suggest some range bound action here, before the next major move. Needless to say, there's a chance that we could see a forceful continuation, and an even smaller chance of an outright rejection. Regardless, given the improving conditions, 4300 and 4400 are very much in play as potential upside targets heading into Q4.
The expected moves for this week are +/- 81.30 (SPX), 8.81 (QQQ), 4.8 (IWM). The Nasdaq is clearly in the pole position for this rally, and is threatening to push back to 14,000, but with another busy week of earnings, as well as unemployment numbers, and more inflation data, there is still plenty of fuel to spark volatility (which has fallen off a cliff).
Best of luck this week. If you found this helpful, please let me know!
$SPY Mr. Market update and possible inflection pointMr. Market has had a nice rally from sub 400 to now trading 410 zone and right at the daily 100MA
Could be a major inflection point as we head into next week and a lot of supply overhead now on what is basically a pump from Apple AMZN and a few other earnings as well as the result of net short option positioning , and lack of sellers "in the hole" .
If you believe another major leg down is imminent, August - Sept seems likely as we now have had a decent bear market rally to accompany the thesis.
If you believe we go higher, look for some nice consolidation now and even retracement before starting the next leg up
Either way, I'd be careful adding longs here as the next weeks most likely involve downside or consolidation as this recent move up is digested.
IMO it's low probability of going straight up higher, but not out of the question if we get major news on - Ukraine war, etc.
Personally I've closed most my longs for decent / good profit and starting building shorts with mostly cash position right now. My lean is short / no trend here.
Cheers : )
QQQ Nice breakoutTook QQQ 311C for tomorrow as discussed in yesterdays post. With AAPL AMZN after hours reaction, these calls gonna open up 300% tomorrow. Also took AMZN 130C for ER. i will be done at the open.
There is going to be a lot of FOMO tomorrow in the markets. Make sure u sell into strength tomorrow. Bears might throw in the towel after these ER reactions and probably bulls who ever sidelined are going to chase as well. So better to take profits and wait for a pullback.
IWM - Next Leg DownI started a hedge position by buying Sept 16 178 PUTS on July 21 st. I legged into the contracts throughout the day. Average cost 7.01
This was my first buy zone indicated by the first box. I might add a couple of contracts if it wedges up to the second green box, near the 184ish range.
IWM looks to be repeating the same flag pattern it did before, indicated by the pink lines.
Markets are still in a downward trend, making lower lows and lower highs, as indicated by the orange channel.
Recent rally has been on declining volume.
Profit takers are indicated by the blue lines.
RSI near 60, which marked short-term tops.
RTY UpdateOverbought again after the morning dip, looks like a melt up and 4 day short squeeze so not shorting anything at the moment aside from the put leg of my BITO strangle. Calls are now in the money so hopefully crypto goes pumptarded on Ponzi payday Friday.
I'm 75% sure this is a melt up, but if you're long I suggest some protection.
QQQ near swing highsRight at last swing highs. SPY and IWM are already above these highs. Closed above these highs. QQQ right on it. Double top for now but Watch it tomorrow for either a confirmation of double top and pullback or a breakout over 308.55. We have AAPL AMZN reporting after hours tomorrow.
We are right in the middle of congestion zone shown in the highlighted area. Generally whenever we enter into the congestion zone, there is a 80% chance we go to the other end of congestion zone. In this case around 312 - 314.60.
7/27/22 FFord Motor Co ( NYSE:F )
Sector: Consumer Durables (Motor Vehicles)
Market Capitalization: 53.023B
Current Price: $13.19
Breakout price: $13.55
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $12.60-$10.90
Price Target: $14.80-$15.40 (1st), $17.90-$18.30 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 28-30d (1st), 70-74d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $F 8/19/22 14c, $F 12/16/22 15c
Trade price as of publish date: $0.32/contract, $0.75/contract
7/27/22 GOOGAlphabet Inc (Google) Class C ( NASDAQ:GOOG )
Sector: Technology Services (Internet Software/Services)
Market Capitalization: $1.493T
Current Price: $113.60
Breakout Price: $114.80
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $112.80-$105.40
Price Target: $120.20-$121.80 (1st), $126.40-$129.10 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 36-38d, 65-68d
Contract of Interest: $QQQ 9/16/22 115c, $QQQ 10/21/22 115c
Trade price as of publish date: $4.60/contract, $6.50/contract
7/27/22 QQQInvesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 ( NASDAQ:QQQ )
Sector: Miscellaneous (Investment Trusts/Mutual Funds)
Market Capitalization: $ -- B
Current Price: $306.81
Breakout Price: $308.90
Sell Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $298.80-$275.70
Price Target: $321.30-$323.90 (1st), $337.60-$344.90 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 33-35d, 69-72d
Contract of Interest: $QQQ 9/16/22 310c, $QQQ 9/16/22 310c
Trade price as of publish date: $6.20/contract, $10.27/contract
7/27/22 SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust ( AMEX:SPY )
Sector: Miscellaneous (Investment Trusts/Mutual Funds)
Market Capitalization: $ -- B
Current Price: $401.01
Breakout Price: $405.60
Sell Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $391.40-$371.40
Price Target: $418.60-$422.00 (3rd), $425.00-$428.10 (4th)
Estimated Duration to Target: 35-38d (3rd), 78-82d (4th)
Contract of Interest: $SPY 9/16/22 405c, $SPY 10/21/22 410c
Trade price as of publish date: $11.00/contract, $12.11/contract
RTY UpdateNQ is tanking but RTY has more of a wave 4 type pattern, so small caps probably rally on the Fed tomorrow. MFI hit oversold, but the index didn't sell off much. IWM has a bullish pattern on the daily and intraday.
Small caps are relatively strong despite most garbage and retail stocks being in the category. Strange.
Anyways, bullish on small caps tomorrow for the usual Fed pump. Will wait for tomorrow and day trade I think.
Looking ahead to next week in the S&P (July 25th, 2022)With things like housing statistics, employment data, and earnings from heavyweights such as GOOG, MSFT, and 3M, next week looks to be filled with potential market moving events. Most notably however is FED Chair Jerome Powell's press conference on Wednesday afternoon. While its no secret that we're headed into a world of higher interest rates, FED speak always has a tendency to move markets one way or another - but before we look ahead, here is a quick snapshot of last weeks action:
S&P500: +2.3%
Nasdaq: +3.3%
Russell: +3.3%
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Technology (XLK): +6.5%
Energy (XLE): +4.5%
Financials (XLF): +2.3%
Heading into next week, SPY is looking at an expected move of +/- 9.8 on 24%IV ... (QQQ +/- 10.3, 32%IV; IWM +/- 5.6, 30%IV).
SPY appears to be gaining steam on the shorter time frames (4HR, etc.), and I think the sectors driving the rally have more room to run, so my primary idea is for the rally to continue over the intermediate term. There may be some turbulence along the way, so perhaps a retest of the top of the previous range around 390 before ultimately heading toward 415. However, don't ignore the bonds. They have seen a solid rally off their lows in June. If momentum can continue, bond prices could accelerate up to 149"00, which would almost certainly lead to weakness in equities.
Please note: these are not predictions - they are just my ideas about how I'm seeing the markets and are to help me formulate my own trades. If you find this helpful, please consider liking, commenting, following, boosting, baking cookies, setting me up with your single friends, blah blah blah blah...
Divide the SPX by the Producer Price Index = Wunderbar!Look at this investment roadmap between equities vs Gold and SIlver and their opposite correlation when inflation is running hot.
If you divide the SPX by the PPI (producer price index) of goods and services you get an amazing chart. While PPI is elevated, the broad equity market has major headwinds outperforming PPI but Gold and Silver shine very well in this time period.
The time to buy equities is when the broad market is outperforming PPI upon the "breakout" of these downtrends.
Happy Investing!
Opened (IRA): IWM September 16th 157 Short Put... for a 1.66 credit.
Comments: Targeting the <16 strike in the shortest duration that is paying around 1% of the strike price in credit in this weakness and comparatively higher IV.
This is more of a trade to add back in shorter duration long delta that I stripped off -- since I still have a high short delta IWM long put diagonal on -- than a "this is a perfect spot to sell a put" sort of trade.
Closed (IRA): IWM August 26th 155 Short Put... for a .55 debit.
Comments: Collected a total of 5.04 in credits with rolls. (See Post Below). Closing out here results in total realized gains of 4.49 ($449). This leaves me with one IWM "rung" on after all the shenanigans -- the September 16th 140. Will look to re-up on weakness/pop in IV such that the <16 delta 45 DTE short put is back is paying >1% of the strike price in credit.