$IWM Analysis, Key Levels, and Targets$IWM Analysis, Key Levels, and Targets
I’m calling bottom here…
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I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed.
GL and happy trading.
IF you need anything analyzed Technically just comment with the Ticker and I’ll do it as soon as possible…
IWM
THE HUNT FOR "A" BOTTOM?Are you hunting for a bottom in stocks? Were you bullish 6 months ago but have now turned bearish? Are your trading decisions influenced by your feelings and 'current events'? There is a tremendous amount of information written right here on the charts if you know how to look for it. I will help you to see this. The best advice I can give is this: Do not make trading decisions based on what you think "should" be. Do not allow your anger and emotions into this game. You are not going to change the trend. Do not tie "news" to "price". The market is way ahead of what you believe is 'news'.
I will not play the game of "I told you so" but if you follow my TradingView ideas I shared several warnings for a few months about what I was seeing and it looked concerning. So for me personally, whatever dark and terrible news I have bombarding me from any electronic device is actually good news for my trading. It's not wise to trade strictly against sentiment because sentiment and price often move together for a while. But it is useful as an indicator. The put:call ratio is such an example.. as seen on this chart.
Also observe the rate of change at the top. It can serve as a clue as to when we are about to see a very big move within a short period of time. We are at such a place where it looks like it has the potential to bounce. This could actually be very bearish or very bullish. But price is likely about to make a series of large moves in both directions.
It is my opinion that we are at or very near "A" bottom of some kind. But don't misinterpret what I'm saying. Firstly, I am saying "A" bottom of some kind. It could be medium-short term. Secondly, when I say at or near I am referring to time. So maybe now.. this week or next. I don't know. But price can move severely within that time period. Using the Fibonacci retracement levels, I see a few key levels in the S&P 500. Watch the .786. Watch the .618. Watch this zone at 0.5. My original target for a correction were the two horizontal lines at about 3200-3600. Price is within my crosshairs now.
Where and when you buy is important but also HOW you buy. You do not want to chase the falling knife and back yourself into a corner where you are desperate and pressed. Yes I have been there. In my experience it is best to ease into positions that you have a lot of good evidence for. Slowly.. easily.. carefully. If you like options, consider giving yourself a LOT more time to build into a position and also consider how severely options decay. It's not unwise to go out a year or more on expirations so you're not trapped on the very steep decay. Those are just a few tips I can share.
Stay tuned because I will be posting more information here about current market conditions and potential pivots.
I posted this in December to demonstrate some early warnings for what is currently happening.
6/12/22 XLESPDR Select Sector Fund - Energy Select Sector ( AMEX:XLE )
Sector: Miscellaneous (Investment Trusts/Mutual Funds)
Market Capitalization: $--
Current Price: $88.71
Breakout price: $90.50
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $84.30-$74.05
Price Target: $112.00-$114.20
Estimated Duration to Target: 133-140d
Contract of Interest: $XLE 9/16/22 90c
Trade price as of publish date: $5.90/contract
6/12/22 KWEBKraneShares Trust CSI China Internet ETF ( AMEX:KWEB )
Sector: Miscellaneous (Investment Trusts/Mutual Funds)
Market Capitalization: $--
Current Price: $37.80-$39.60
Breakout price: $32.70
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $31.60-$26.35
Price Target: $37.80-$39.60
Estimated Duration to Target: 50-53d
Contract of Interest: $KWEB 8/19/22 35c
Trade price as of publish date: $2.38/contract
6/12/22 KKellogg Company ( NYSE:K )
Sector: Consumer Non-Durables (Food: Major Diversified)
Market Capitalization: $23.618B
Current Price: $69.58
Breakout price: $70.00
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $68.65-$66.90
Price Target: $72.60-$73.80
Estimated Duration to Target: 49-52d
Contract of Interest: $K 7/15/22 70c
Trade price as of publish date: $2.00/contract
6/12/22 AMZNAmazon.com, Inc. ( NASDAQ:AMZN )
Sector: Retail Trade (Internet Retail)
Market Capitalization: $1.116T
Current Price: $109.65
Breakdown Price: $108.60
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $115.75-$129.10
Price Target: $101.30-$99.30
Estimated Duration to Target: 38-40d
Contract of Interest: $AMZN 7/15/22 110p
Trade price as of publish date: $5.90/contract
Leading Indicators are very BearishThe JNK ETF is heading further down with a big bearish Marubozu that is the YTD low -> Bearish for equities.
The IWM ETF is also heading further down for a lower low with a bearish Marubozu engulfing -> Bearish for equities
The DJT ETF ended on a recent low too -> Bearish for equities
The VALUG has a bearish candle for more downside -> Bearish for equities
The TIPS ETF bearish marubozu ending on a YTD low-> Bearish for equities
The TLT ETF is diving -> no flight to safety, just selling.
The VIX is coiling -> bearish outlook for equities, more volatility incoming when it spikes!
The HG1! copper futures ended on a strong low for the week, and will be attacking support. Expect failure.
Overall, very Bearish bias on equities for the next couple of weeks, and at least until the VIX spikes very hard before retracing (it is only coiling now...)
Russell 2000 Bear Trend
Well.
1) Macro bullish symmetrical triangle fakeout leading to top signal.
2) Low volume on bullish break, High volume on reversal confirming fakeout.
3) Omicron Variant market reaction =~= Covid-19 market reaction
See SPY fakeout before March 2020 Covid-19 crash. (right)
Lastly, see bearish divergence between index and % of stocks above 200 ma (orange).