Rolling (IRA): IWM March 4th 185 Short Put to April 8th 175... for a 1.58 credit.
Comments: With 7 days to go and with the short put at >50% max, rolling this down and out to the April 8th 175 strike, which is paying around 2.10. I've collected a total of 4.08 in credits relative to a current price for the 175 short put of 2.05, so have realized gains of 2.03 ($203) so far.
IWM
$IWM — Potential H&S forming on the 1hr We can either go lower to fill that open gap right off the bat...
or
We're going to go a bit higher to form the second shoulder, creating the H&S with a downside target of $193...
Either way, that gap is filling — not sure if it will today, but likely for next week and for certain before March's 3rd Friday.
The StochasticSlow is looking overbought, and the CCI is hinging lower just under that momentum line — bad sign for the bulls, if you ask me.
2/21/22 MSFTMicrosoft Corp. ( NASDAQ:MSFT )
Sector: Technology Services (Packaged Software)
Market Capitalization: $2.159T
Current Price: $287.93
Breakdown price: $286.00
Sell Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $297.00-$312.00
Price Target: $276.00-$274.40 (1st), $233.00-$230.50 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 28-30d (1st), 68-71d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $MSFT 3/18/22 280p, 6/17/22 260p
Trade price as of publish date: $7.20/contract, $9.97/contract
2/21/22 TSLATesla, Inc. ( NASDAQ:TSLA )
Sector: Consumer Durables (Motor Vehicles)
Market Capitalization: $885.695B
Current Price: $856.98
Breakdown price: $850.00
Sell Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $900.00-$965.00
Price Target: $778.00-$762.50 (4th), $690.00-$678.00 (5th)
Estimated Duration to Target: 28-30d (4th), 68-71d (5th)
Contract of Interest: $TSLA 3/18/22 800p, 5/20/22 750p
Trade price as of publish date: $34.11/contract, $55.40/contract
2/21/22 BLDRBuilders FirstSource, Inc. ( NYSE:BLDR )
Sector: Producer Manufacturing (Building Products)
Market Capitalization: $13.734B
Current Price: $71.72
Breakdown price: $67.00
Sell Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $68.50-$73.00
Price Target: $64.20-63.00 (2nd), $56.00-$54.40 (3rd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 27-29d (2nd), 60-63d (3rd)
Contract of Interest: $BLDR 3/18/22 70p, 5/20/22 70p
Trade price as of publish date: $3.40/contract, $6.30/contract
2/21/22 SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust ( AMEX:SPY )
Sector: Miscellaneous (Investment Trusts/Mutual Funds)
Market Capitalization: $ -- B
Current Price: $434.23
Breakdown price: $429.00
Sell Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $448.00-$457.00
Price Target: $422.20-$420.10 (1st), $384.20-$382.00 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 14-17d, 48-50d
Contract of Interest: $SPY 3/7/22 420p, 4/14/22 400p
Trade price as of publish date: $4.20/contract, $7.03/contract
Rolling: IWM March 18th 199 Short Straddle to April 1st 201... for a 2.34 credit.
Comments: Locking in some realized gains (.72/$72) here by rolling out a smidge early to at-the-money with 28 days to go. Total credits collected of 15.14 relative to the April 1st 201 short straddle price of 16.07, so still a little underwater at the moment.
Wyckoff Distribution + InflationThe IWM has completed It's classic Wyckoff Distribution and we are now at Phase E. The target is 170-169 where we have found support.
This is a warning for the entire Stock Market to abandon ship while you still can.
The IVM is the Titanic and has hit the ICEBERG. We don't have enough boats to save everyone. People will be left on the ship stuck at all time highs holding the bags.
"The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists."
Ernest Hemingway
This post is not Financial Advise.
IWM is going down and taking the SPY with it!From what I see is utilizing the fib retracement from the 2020 low to the top of you can see great support and resistance . Ironically looks like it's going to flirt with the 0.618 fib retracement level. IWM is on it's way down and I see it filling the gaps that I circled. Along the way the SPY is mimicking the movement of IWM , so I see more downside for SPY as well. I'm waiting to deploy my money around the 155 zone for IWM . I will watch for a bottoming for SPY around that time as well. If you're able to utilize puts this could be a good idea. I'm in the TSP so that is not an option for me currently. I'm in the G fund awaiting the best time to enter. Good luck all!
Rolling: IWM March 11th 199 Short Straddle to March 25th 201... for a 2.95 credit.
Comments: Rolling for a small realized gain here at 21 days until expiry. I've collected a total of 15.05 in credits relative to the current March 25th 201 short straddle price of 15.46, so the position is still a smidge underwater. Current break evens: 185.54 on the put side, 216.46 on the call.
Markets are topped out on macro renko charts, good luck. The chart speaks for itself; there are obvious fractals on the bull and bear legs. they keep getting bigger as well in pattern. Volatility is expanding the X-axis like crazy; and bear moves are even more volatile in such conditions. Things could get very steep. I pasted inverted, expanded, copies for a future plot. Good luck.
Opened (IRA): IWM April 1st 175 Short Put... for a 1.98 credit.
Comments: Selling premium in the broad market exchange-traded fund having the highest 30-day on the board, targeting the strike in the shortest duration contract of 45 days or longer that pays at least 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the broad market. I usually do this on Fridays, but if it's gonna dump on a Thursday ... .
SPY 400/394 Put Credit Spread - March 21 ExpiryFill: 0.54 Credit
Strikes: 400/395
Max Risk: 500-54 = 446
This was an order that I had been sitting on all day, trying to hold myself back from reducing my target price. Ill be honest, I liked these strikes so I wanted the trade.
Reasoning:
1. Large move down today, attacking prior lows - This is jumping the gun a bit as I usually wait for some confirmation of an upward movement, but as I mentioned I liked the strikes and the 10% Margin of error on the SPY, something I dont get often with my trades unless IV is high.
2. Yellow line is the lowest we have seen in 2022, and this still provides a 5% cushion from there as well.
3. Capital Deployment - I have been sitting on my hands alot recently, but I need to get trades out there. The reality is that I have built in risk management into my strategy and taken this risk into account when I project yearly returns, this is great to do, but means that if I do not deploy the amount of capital that I plan to, I dont hit returns because there is already a loss cushion built in. Currently around 20% deployed, and I should be at 34% as per my trading plan.
Questions? Comments? Leave them below!
What happens after double top rally in markets?I am using index ETFs here since I use them for option trades and they are so widely traded. Study DIA, SPY, and QQQ and note the double top similarity as it corresponds to RSI. DIA and SPY were a little stronger in that RSI showed a double top above 50. QQQ had an earlier 20 below 200 ma cross, so it is weaker and its RSI did a double retest of 50. Friday's candle broke the lows on these three charts and technically triggered more downside.
However, in this anything can happen market, there is a possibility that this Friday-Monday pullback results in another move higher before making new lows. For trading, this means be patient and do not over-commit to one direction. You can start a smaller swing position and add more puts when you have more confidence in the trade.
Also, though not shown here, stochastic %K has given a sell warning on the daily chart. The candles from 9-11 Feb moved %K from above 80 to below 20. Sometimes more downside follows immediately, while more often there is a price bounce up first as %D is still making its way lower. I cannot predict which will happen but I know to be on the lookout for a reason to buy puts.
I want to discuss IWM separately, as it does not have the same double top formation on RSI and price. IWM is more bearish, as 20sma crossed below 200 earlier, and so this chart is weaker. When you look at its weekly chart and indicators, you may want to buy swing puts.
2/13/22 HALHalliburton Company ( NYSE:HAL )
Sector: Industrial Services (Oilfield, Services/Equipment)
Market Capitalization: 30.120B
Current Price: $33.52
Breakout price: $31.10 (hold above)
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $32.10-$29.00
Price Target: $35.20-$36.60
Estimated Duration to Target: 90-94d
Contract of Interest: $HAL 4/14/22 35c
Trade price as of publish date: $1.89/contract
2/13/22 RTXRaytheon Technologies Corporation ( NYSE:RTX )
Sector: Electronic Technology (Aerospace & Defense)
Market Capitalization: 142.598B
Current Price: $95.27
Breakout price: $94.60 (hold above)
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $94.50-$89.40
Price Target: $99.80-$100.60 (1st), $126.00-$127.40 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 48-52d (1st), 540-560d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $RTX 3/18/22 100c, $RTX 1/20/23 100c
Trade price as of publish date: $1.26/contract, $7.15/contract
2/13/22 OXYOccidental Petroleum Corporation ( NYSE:OXY )
Sector: Energy Minerals (Oil & Gas Production)
Market Capitalization: 40.143B
Current Price: $42.98
Breakout price: $41.55 (hold above)
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $41.50-$38.40
Price Target: $39.20-$40.50 (Reached), $48.40-$50.60 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 80-83d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $OXY 5/20/22 50c
Trade price as of publish date: $2.50/contract
2/13/22 LMTLockheed Martin Corporation ( NYSE:LMT )
Sector: Electronic Technology (Aerospace & Defense)
Market Capitalization: 107.893B
Current Price: $396.19
Breakout price: $396.00 (hold above)
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $384.80-$369.85
Price Target: $416.00-$420.00 (1st), $434.00-$442.00 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 103-110d (1st), 211-221d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $LMT 6/17/22 400c, $LMT 9/16/22 400c
Trade price as of publish date: $19.40/contract, $25.30/contract